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Independent Researcher, Tajikistan
Parviz KHAKIMOV
“Integration processes in the CIS region and their implications for
agricultural trade”, 26-27 March 2015, Kaliningrad, Russia
4/13/2015 2
1. Rationale of the Study
2. Objective & Research Questions
3. Methodology
4. Results
5. Conclusion
4/13/2015 3
4/13/2015 4
Annual growth of GDP and
Remittances (%)
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
-30.0
-25.0
-20.0
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
GDP growth
Remittances growth (auxiliary axis)
GDP annual per capita growth (%)
Source: Own compilation based on World Development Indicators of World Bank. 2013
-35.0
-30.0
-25.0
-20.0
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
199
1
199
3
199
5
19
97
199
9
200
1
200
3
200
5
200
7
200
9
201
1
GDP per capita growth (annual%)
4/13/2015 5
34.1
25.7
22
20.1
21.7
33.2 33.5
33.1 30.4
23.6 22.7
21.3 18.3
14.2
36.7 36
32
25.1 25.4
25.1 23.8
22.2
24.2
19.2 21.2
21.5 19.4 19.9
21.6 23.7
25.5
32.8 33.2
31 32.2
33.3 34.2
41.1
39.9 40.3 45.9 46.5
7.6
14.6
20.5
22.1
19.7
10.7
10.5
11.4
11.2
16.1 16.2 16.9 16.4
19.4
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Industry Agriculture Other sectors Trade
Other sectors:
Transport & communication; Construction sector; Logistic &
procurement; Market and non-market services; Excises
Nominal GDP by economic sectors (percent)
Source: Own compilation based on the data of Agency on Statistics of the Republic of
Tajikistan. Statistical yearbook “Socio-economic indicators”. 2004 & 2010.
4/13/2015 6
4/13/2015 7
Objective
• To assess the impact of Tajikistan’s WTO and EAEU
accessions on its agricultural sector.
Research questions
• How does the accession of the WTO and EAEU effects
consumers. producers and the state budget in Tajikistan?
• How will value of agricultural production & the balance of
trade changes?
4/13/2015 8
4/13/2015 9
• The main research tool for the analysis is a AGRISIM – partial-
equilibrium net trade model.
COUNTRIES & REGION COMMODITIES
Australia Mexico Livestock Crops
Brazil Russia Beef & Veal Wheat
Canada South Africa Milk Coarse grains
China Tajikistan Pig meat Maize
Egypt Ukraine Poultry Rice, refined
European Union 27 USA Eggs Sugar, refined
India Uzbekistan Mutton & Goat Cotton, fiber
Japan Rest of the World Oils
Kazakhstan World
Kyrgyzstan
4/13/2015 10
AGRISIM includes 67 equations:
• Commodity balance sheet;
• Yield and area functions;
• Net trade equations;
• Prices;
• Price transmission elasticity;
• Welfare functions;
• Elasticities, etc.
Developed & simulated scenarios:
Base assumption – population
growth;
Scenario 1 (WTO) – BA plus
commodity specific bounded tariffs
under WTO agreement;
Scenario 2 (EAEU) – BA plus all
import tariffs are zero.
4/13/2015 11
Source: Own illustration based on Roningen (1997).
Population growth & tariffs changes
Tajikistan
Population growth & tariffs changes
4/13/2015 12
Value of Agricultural Production (million USD)
4/13/2015 13
Source: own compilation based on AGRISIM simulation results
775
791 789
BA WTO EAEU
Value of Agricultural Production Change in Scenario (million USD)
4/13/2015 14
Source: own compilation based on AGRISIM simulation results
WTO accession EAEU accession
BA WTO
Changes (WTO
against BA)
BA EAEU
Changes (EAEU against
BA)
% million USD % million
USD
Beef & veal 69.4 46.8 -32.6 -22.6 69.4 46.3 -33.4 -23.2
Coarse grain 11.9 12.9 9.1 1.1 11.9 13.8 16.3 1.9
Cotton, fibre 83.6 219.6 162.6 136.0 83.6 209.6 150.7 126.0
Eggs 9.0 3.1 -65.3 -5.9 9.0 3.7 -59.4 -5.4
Maize 26.3 30.6 16.2 4.3 26.3 29.5 12.2 3.2
Milk 124.4 177.4 42.6 53.0 124.4 165.0 32.7 40.6
Mutton & goat 73.7 80.2 8.9 6.6 73.7 72.9 -1.0 -0.8
Oilseeds 156.0 162.8 4.3 6.7 156.0 156.1 0.0 0.0
Pork 1.6 1.9 22.2 0.3 1.6 1.6 4.9 0.1
Poultry 1.2 0.5 -57.4 -0.7 1.2 0.4 -61.6 -0.7
Rice, refined 56.7 28.5 -49.8 -28.2 56.7 29.1 -48.7 -27.6
Sugar, refined 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Wheat 161.7 26.6 -83.5 -135.1 161.7 61.4 -62.0 -100.3
Total 775.5 791.0 2.0 15.5 775.5 789.4 1.8 13.9
Balance of Trade Changes (million USD)
4/13/2015 15 Source: own compilation based on AGRISIM simulation results
-130
-76
-125
BA WTO EAEU
Balance of Trade Changes (million USD)
4/13/2015 16 Source: own compilation based on AGRISIM simulation results
WTO accession EAEU accession
BA WTO
Changes (WTO
against BA)
BA EAEU
Changes (EAEU
against BA)
% million
USD %
million
USD
Beef & veal -26.5 -30.7 -15.9 -4.2 -26.5 -34.5 -30.5 -8.1
Coarse grain -2.8 -0.9 67.4 1.9 -2.8 -1.2 58.7 1.6
Cotton, fibre 153.3 157.1 2.5 3.8 153.3 179.8 17.3 26.5
Eggs -6.1 -7.9 -29.9 -1.8 -6.1 -8.7 -43.3 -2.6
Maize -3.1 2.1 170.1 5.2 -3.1 0.4 113.9 3.5
Milk -15.4 -4.1 73.3 11.3 -15.4 -5.8 62.5 9.7
Mutton & goat -8.4 -9.6 -14.5 -1.2 -8.4 -11.8 -40.1 -3.4
Oils -39.2 -18.6 52.7 20.7 -39.2 -28.7 26.9 10.5
Pork -7.5 -7.4 1.7 0.1 -7.5 -7.5 0.2 0.0
Poultry -11.4 -13.2 -15.9 -1.8 -11.4 -13.9 -22.2 -2.5
Rice, refined -2.1 -9.5 -359.2 -7.5 -2.1 -8.6 -314.7 -6.5
Sugar, refined -71.3 -68.9 3.4 2.4 -71.3 -71.6 -0.5 -0.3
Wheat -89.6 -64.4 28.2 25.2 -89.6 -112.7 -25.8 -23.1
Total -130.0 -75.8 42.0 54.2 -130.0 -124.7 4.0 5.3
Welfare changes (million USD)
4/13/2015 17
Source: own compilation based on AGRISIM simulation results
67
358
286
-87
148
96
46
-184 -175
27
321
208
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
BA WTO EAEU
Producer surplus Consumer surplus Budget Total
4/13/2015 18
• The country's accession to the WTO and the EAEU has a positive
effect on both, producers and consumers, with substantial losses to
the budget.
• An application of smaller import tariffs, under international trade
agreement (WTO), in open and small economy, net importer of
agricultural products, like Tajikistan, will allow to minimize the losses
of the losers and maximize the gain of the gainers, than applying
zero tariffs within the regional trade agreement.
• The effects of the WTO and EAEU accession on other sectors of
economy, using CGE model, are subject of the further studies.
4/13/2015 19
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