an academic goal of socio-ecological sustainability: a comprehensive review from a millennial-scale...

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International Journal of Sustainable Built Environment (2014) xxx, xxx–xxx

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Gulf Organisation for Research and Development

International Journal of Sustainable Built Environment

ScienceDirectwww.sciencedirect.com

Review Article

An academic goal of socio-ecological sustainability:A comprehensive review from a millennial-scale perspective

Goro Mouri ⇑

Institute of Industrial Science (IIS), The University of Tokyo, Be505, 4-6-1 Komaba, Meguro-ku, Tokyo 153-8505, Japan

Received 22 November 2013; accepted 20 May 2014

Abstract

We introduce the concept of millennial-scale sustainability as part of an academic approach to solving various technological problemsfaced by humans in modern society and for managing scientific technology. We further discuss the rationale behind the application ofsuch a sociological concept to science. First, we compare the value of having a relatively short-term outlook (corresponding to the humanlife span) on the relation between technology and human activities to a 1000-year outlook by considering the correlation between ourcurrent situation and past technology, taking note of the scientific and technological policies, and human activities of the past 1000 years.In particular, we discuss the relationship between human activities and environmental issues. The problem is not one of current sustain-ability but, rather, of future sustainability. Therefore, the importance of applying the 1000-year outlook to the technology used in variousapplications is emphasized. Second, by looking back 1000 years, we discuss the realization of existing technology over that period. Exam-ples of sustainable scientific technology from the past 1000 years are given, including the importance of artificial structures and new com-puter systems. Third, solving global environmental problems, including the supply of and demand for food, mitigation of climate change,and the response to natural disasters is an important concern of scientists in the 21st century, and is aided by simulations that includecomprehensive historical investigations of civilizations that unify both natural and anthropogenic systems to define 1000-year sustain-ability scientific technology. The concept of 1000-year sustainability will move from sustainable development to sustainability develop-ment or the development of sustainability, which is the goal of a continuous society.� 2014 The Gulf Organisation for Research and Development. Production and hosting by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Keywords: Development of sustainability; Millennial-scale sustainability; Human impact; Society co-existing with nature; Sustainable development;Urbanization

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijsbe.2014.05.003

⇑ Tel.: +81 3 5452 6382.E-mail address: mouri@rainbow.iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp

Peer review under responsibility of The Gulf Organisation for Researchand Development.

Production and hosting by Elsevier

Please cite this article in press as: Mouri, G. An academic goal of socio-ecological sustainability: A comprehensive review from a millennial-scaleperspective. International Journal of Sustainable Built Environment (2014), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijsbe.2014.05.003

2 G. Mouri / International Journal of Sustainable Built Environment xxx (2014) xxx–xxx

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Contents

1. Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 002. Conceptual theory of 1000-year sustainability. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 003. Feasibility of 1000-year scientific technology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 004. Scientific technology of the twenty-first century for 1000-year sustainability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 005. Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 006. Uncited references . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 00

References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 00

1. Introduction

Scientific technology has released vulnerable humanbeings from their subordination to nature. For modernhumans, unreasonable pain accompanying work anddeaths caused by epidemic diseases and natural disastershave been reduced, while leisure time and knowledge levelshave increased (Acha et al., 2004; Porfiriev, 2012;Hagelsteen and Becker, 2013; Mouri et al., 2013a). How-ever, many important problems remain, including environ-mental pollution, the destruction of nature, theextermination of species, the safety of food, various distor-tions accompanying urbanization, the destruction of theozone layer and global warming (Giles, 2005; Grimmet al., 2009; Albiac, 2009; Chao, 2009; Butchart et al.,2010; Rana, in press; Colombert et al., 2011; Mouri andOki, 2010; Mouri et al., 2011, 2012, 2013b, 2014; Salonenand Ahlberg, 2103). A clear vision of the future ways inwhich these problems may be solved through the use of sci-entific technology has not yet emerged. This is because avague uneasiness and hesitation regarding global environ-mental problems exists with regard to the issue of problemsolving by scientific technology and whether it acceleratesproblems further, given that the present age is wasting pastproperty and future resources. In order to break free fromthis sense of limitation, a 1000-year technology system sup-porting “1000-year sustainability” must be established.

2. Conceptual theory of 1000-year sustainability

What is “1000-year sustainability”? The 1000-year timescale is considerably longer than a human lifetime. Thisencapsulates the idea that human beings and communitiesin general continue to strive toward a better future, withthe result that, by their thoughts and actions, 1000 yearsfrom now, we will have a sustainable, functional and cul-tured society. In future decades, economic performanceand the acceleration of engineering developments will betop priorities for human society in order to ensure socialoverhead capital for typical lifespans of 50–100 years, espe-cially in developed countries. The development of humansociety and the natural environment, based on economicperformance and the acceleration of engineeringdevelopments as top priorities, has been successfullyachieved through globalization for many citizens, including

Please cite this article in press as: Mouri, G. An academic goal of socio-ecperspective. International Journal of Sustainable Built Environment (2014)

those in developing countries. However, problems can arisefrom various uncertainties or an increase in the socialinfrastructure, and it could be considered that the currentlevel of development has weakened natural and humansociety. Most members of society today may not actuallyunderstand the concept of sustainability development(Niven, 2005; Klaier et al., 2013). They may even bedisheartened by how pragmatic such predictions are(Keller, 2004; JORA, 2003; Christopher et al., 2007;Larsen and Gunnarsson-Ostling, 2009; Lotfalipour et al.,2010). However, a vision for 1000 years hence will enfran-chise people with a strong will to enable certain futureoutcomes on the basis of “wanting it to be like this”, thusincreasing the possibility that their vision will be realized.

For example, all human activities in our present lives andsocieties are accompanied by the consumption of energy.Increases in the amount of fossil fuel used, stemming fromthe industrial revolution, have brought about unprece-dented improvements in the quality of life and life expec-tancy (Sadownik and Jaccard, 2001; Midilli and Dincer,2008; Webersik and Wilson, 2009; Huang and Rust, inpress). However, the results of recent investigations indicatethat the number of years that fossil fuel reserves will last islimited; oil, for example, is limited to 40 years, natural gasto 70 years, and coal less than 300 years (Abelson, 2000;Galloway, 2003; Aldhous, 2005; Holden, 2007; Kerr,2009). The influence of coal on air pollution and other envi-ronmental problems is great, and its use, therefore, comeswith difficulties. When the future view of energy supplyproblems is restricted to the 21st century, uncertaintiesregarding the reliability of such reserve estimates for a fossilfuel and/or the accuracy of the predicted number of yearsfor which they will be able to be used can obfuscate thelonger-term issues of availability (Gil-Martin et al., 2013;Munjur et al., 2013). The tendency, in this scenario, is toargue over numbers for goal-setting, such as whetherusage-reduction targets should be set at 10% or 20%. How-ever, when we consider 1000-year sustainability, it becomesclear that even if we reduce usage by 20%, this only allowsfor a 25% increase in the number of years for which supplieswill last. Even if the predictions contain 100% error, it willstill be impossible in 1000 years to use fossil fuel as it is usedtoday. If our vision for 1000 years hence includes the ideathat “we would like to maintain energy consumption at cur-rent levels”, than it is clear that, in the near future, problem-

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solving type research and development, such as energy-sav-ing technologies and the simultaneous development of alter-native energy sources and their use must be promoted. Onesolution has summarized state-of-the-art measures appliedin different parts of the world to reduce the energy consump-tion related to urban water usage (Eli’as-Maxir et al., 2014).Another solution has proposed urban wind energy as anenergy source with great potential that is currently beingwasted (Welch and Venkateswaran, 2009; Toja-Silv et al.,2013). Lee and Leal (2014) proposed a novel idea for plan-ning new energy sources for members of the economic com-munity. Abdallah et al. (2013) and Rashwan et al. (2013)introduced indicators of sustainable energy developmentfor the human community. This serves as a driving forceto urge the development of 1000-year scientific technologythat will support sustainability for the next millennium.

Fig. 2. Traditional landscapes, including terraced paddy fields covering anartificial forested catchment, represent ecologically designed systems thatprovide the staple foodstuffs for large cities in Japan.

3. Feasibility of 1000-year scientific technology

However, looking back, has the scientific technology ofthe past 1000 years been realized? Without considering per-sonal appearance, it seems that we are presently sur-rounded by large amounts of constructed artificialstructures (Fig. 1). However, various structures supportinghuman society have received the benefit of old scientifictechnology and existing ecosystems (Carpenter et al.,2009; Mulder, 2007; Mouri et al., 2013c). Technology asimmaterial property, such as knowledge about food, cloth-ing use and artifice, actually continues to be used overspans of 100 years, and even more than 1000 years. Forexample, although their designed service life is about100 years, civil engineered structures and constructedbuildings can be used for over 1000 years or more, if suit-able repairs are performed (Fig. 2). Even if a building islost, its influence will remain for future generations. Also,information is inherited. The Dujiangyan irrigation systemin Sichuan China has continued to supply irrigation water

Fig. 1. It seems that we are currently surrounded by a large number ofartificial structures that were constructed without considering theirappearance.

Please cite this article in press as: Mouri, G. An academic goal of socio-ecperspective. International Journal of Sustainable Built Environment (2014),

to the Sichuan basin for 2300 years or more. Moreover, anintermittent embankment of the Fuji River, YamanashiPrefecture, in Japan, has continued to protect the townof Kofu for 400 years or more by means of an artificiallevee formed by Takeda Shingen.

Thus, although many of the rapid scientific develop-ments that have taken place in recent years doubtless willbe forgotten, there certainly are some current scientifictechnologies that will support sustainability 1000 years intothe future. The example of computer Y2K problems was atypical case exemplifying the lack of consideration for1000-year sustainability. When we consider scientific tech-nologies 1000 years into the future, whether they are artifi-cial structures, information systems, or humane socialsystems, we can see that those that currently exist, butare lacking in some way, must nonetheless be used forthe time being. Excellent material will be used over a longperiod of time through periodical repair and improvement,frequently exceeding the lifespan intended by the designerand maker (Oguchi et al., 2001; Grynning, et al., 2013;Marie, 2013). Therefore, in computer software develop-ment, the idea of scientific technology for 1000-year sus-tainability should be taken into consideration in advance.However, it is difficult to prevent every adverse situationuntil specific problems are predicted; it is a goal of 1000-year sustainability to exhibit flexibility in such cases, andto continue using and taking advantage of the strongpoints of an existing system. Thus, it could be said thatby overcoming the Y2K problem, information scienceand technology began to advance toward 1000-year sus-tainability (Manion and Evan, 2000; JORA, 2003).

4. Scientific technology of the twenty-first century for 1000-

year sustainability

Clearly, the fields that need to take particular interest inthe scientific technology of the 21st century for 1000-year

ological sustainability: A comprehensive review from a millennial-scalehttp://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijsbe.2014.05.003

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sustainability are those concerning global environmentalproblems (Palmer et al., 2005; Grainger, 2012). There areproblems, such as population increase and mineral andenergy resource depletion, that form the basis of many cur-rent global environment problems (Rayner, 2010; Mercure,2012). Problems associated with the supply and demand offood, water-resource management, climatic change, andincreasing desertification are derived from such underlyingissues (EI-Fadel et al., 2001; Clarke, 2002; Oki and Kanae,2006; Chereni, 2007; Bardsley and Sweeney, 2010; Godfrayet al., 2010). To solve global environmental problems, it isimportant to have exact knowledge about such problemsfrom past circumstances, the present situation, and futureprojections. It is expected that such knowledge will beobtained through the historical investigation of compre-hensive civilizations, improvements in earth observationtechnologies, the construction of an international net-work-of-information, and the construction of a hugeadvanced mathematical model simulation system integrat-ing the effects of natural and human systems.

By the end of the 21st century, short-term predictionsabout food production, water cycle changes, and climatechange will provide global mitigation for losses of humanlife and property from famine and natural disaster, as fore-casting systems will have progressed greatly (Kuylenstiernaet al., 1997; Hilson, 2000; Ferrier and Edward, 2002; Mosset al., 2010; Nomura and Abe, 2010). Also, for example,epoch-making long-term predictions of populations,resources, social development, and international trade willbe very useful in the effective investment of limited socialcapital (David et al., 2010). Japan will be able to contributegreatly to international society by providing information tothis end. Furthermore, such measures for mitigatingpredicted crises are not temporary and the choosing andcarrying out of alternatives is inheritable, as human

Fig. 3. The concept of 1000-year sustainability development, which is the goal othe next millennium (The Century of the Environment).

property will realize 1000-year sustainability. If the globalenvironmental problems of the 21st century can be solvedby 1000-year scientific technology then we can be confidentin the idea of 1000-year sustainability such that “A present-day human being can have the confidence not only to enjoythe benefits of the culture inherited from previousgenerations and civilizations but also to form theproperties of a civilization that will be carried forward tothe next generation”.

Therefore, the basis of scientific technology that willsupport 1000-year sustainability for a new millenniumneeds to be formed at the beginning of the 21st century(Fig. 3). Precedent provides us with many points to takeinto consideration in this undertaking (Lopez-Ridauraet al., 2002; Borghesi and Vercelli, 2003; Hellstrand et al.,2009; Sheate and Partidario, 2010, Smith et al., 2010). Thatis, the bases of many social systems that have continued tobe used in the present were devised 1000 years ago or more.Therefore, it is likely that the wisdom needed to apply tech-nology to 1000-year sustainability is hidden within suchsystems. Thus, typical structures used in Japan and world-wide for long periods of time should be investigated andstudied (Garmendia and Stagl, 2010; Jorstad and Skogen,2010; Heink and Kowarik, 2010; Mouri et al., 2013d).Continuous evaluation of social science and natural sciencefactors should be carried out, and common factors relatedto 1000-year sustainability are extracted. This conceptualdiagram of a socio-ecological system for millennial-scalesustainability development, which is influenced by spatialand temporal variations, as well as the relationshipbetween human and economic activity, and environmentalissues is shown in Fig. 4. As a result, we will understandhow the social and cultural properties that have contrib-uted to human society for long periods were fashioned.Of course, having only a long-term viewpoint is inade-

f a continuous society that utilizes scientific technology, and economics for

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Fig. 4. A conceptual diagram of a socio-ecological system for millennial-scale sustainability development, which is influenced by spatial and temporalvariations, and the relationship between human and economic activity, and environmental issues.

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quate. For impending problem solving, it is important toperform innovative technical developments in connectionwith biotechnology, materials science, information, andthe environment. However, when exploring the potentialtechnology for coping with current or pending problems,a long-term view toward 1000-year sustainability is indis-pensable. It is necessary, therefore, to establish guidelinesfor the construction of this viewpoint.

5. Conclusion

Phrases such as the “construction of a recycling society”

and “sustainable development” have passed into generaluse. However, their exact meaning is changing. The ideaof 1000-year sustainability will move from sustainabledevelopment to sustainability development or the develop-ment of sustainability, which is the target of a continuoussociety. At the beginning of the 21st century, we must ceaseto think only of ourselves and our immediate descendents.Human beings 1000 years from now should be comfortableand safe in a realized society in which they can survive, setup by scientific technology and research undertaken in the21st century, if we take the step of looking 1000 years intothe future. To this end, we must all be aware that we needto make a consistent effort to promote the development ofsustainability. We sincerely hope that society and technol-ogy in the 21st century will progress in this direction. Tosolve global environmental and social problems, it isimportant to develop a detailed knowledge of such prob-lems from an integration of the traditional approach, thepresent situation, and future projections. We must aim toenvision scientific technology that looks forward in thenext 1000 years.

6. Uncited references

Macleod et al. (2009), Mowerya et al. (2010).

Acknowledgments

This study was supported by funding from the NewEnergy and Industrial Technology Development Organiza-tion (NEDO); the Environmental Research and Technol-ogy Development Fund (S-8) of the Ministry of theEnvironment, Japan; the Green Network of Excellence(GRENE); Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research(24560616) from the Ministry of Education, Japan; theSumitomo Foundation; the Foundation of River andWatershed Environment Management; and the CoreResearch for Evolutionary Science and Technology(CREST), Japan. The dataset was partially provided bythe Shikoku Regional Bureau of MLIT and the authorsare grateful for their support. The authors benefitted fromdiscussions with colleagues in the course of preparing adraft for this paper. Special thanks go to Taikan Oki forhis helpful input. We are also grateful to an anonymousreviewer and editors of the International Journal of Sustain-

able Built Environment, whose advice greatly improved thequality of this manuscript.

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