air quality issues new state implementation plan seyed sadredin executive director/apco
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Air Quality IssuesAir Quality IssuesNew State Implementation PlanNew State Implementation Plan
Seyed SadredinSeyed SadredinExecutive Director/APCOExecutive Director/APCO
San Joaquin Valley Air Pollution Control District
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Valley’s challenges are unmatched by any other region in the nation.
Valley’s geography and meteorology are ideal for forming and trapping smog.
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Pollution DensityPollution Density
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Percent Decrease, NOxSource: Based on ARB's 2006 Almanac
-45.0%
-40.0%
-35.0%
-30.0%
-25.0%
-20.0%
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
1990 1995 2000 2005
year
percent decrease South Coast
San Joaquin
Past Efforts to Reduce Air Pollution by Region
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Much progress has been made, but the remaining Much progress has been made, but the remaining challenges are dauntingchallenges are daunting
Federal Standards Pass Fail Comments
Ozone: Smog in Summer
One-hour N/A Smog cut by half before standard was revoked
Eight-hour EPA compliance by 2012. Plan due in 2007.
PM-10: Dust, soot in fall
24-hour Annual
PM-2.5: smallest particulates in winter
24-hour New standard released 9/21/06.
Annual EPA Compliance by 2015. Plan due in 2008.
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How much more reductions is How much more reductions is needed for 8-hr ozone attainment?needed for 8-hr ozone attainment?
• An additional 60% reductions in emissions needed to meet the new smog standard
• 480 tons per day of reductions are needed
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0
200
400
600
800
1000
2005EmissionsInventory
2015 2015 w/o 2015 w/o 2015 w/o 2015 w/o 2015 w/o
Tons Per Day
NOx
ROG
60% Reduction in Emissions:60% Reduction in Emissions:How Difficult?How Difficult?
“Carrying Capacity”
Mobile Sources
Stationary Sources
Light Duty Vehicles
Diesel Trucks
AgricultureEmissions Inventory
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2007 Ozone Plan2007 Ozone Plan4-Faceted Control Strategy4-Faceted Control Strategy
• Regulatory component (District rules)
• Incentive-based strategies
• Alternative compliance
• Local, state, and federal sources/partnerships
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Current District Control MeasuresCurrent District Control Measures
• 41 Stationary & area source measuresCurrent rulemaking projects (10) – affecting 20 current rules, Proposed CMs (17), Further Study CMs (14)
• 7 Mobile & Indirect Measures:Trip Reduction, Accelerated Fleet Rule, ISR Enhancement, Green Contracting, Expanded Spare the Air, Heat Island Mitigation, Alternative Energy & Energy Conservation
• Incentive Programs- for faster fleet turnover of diesel trucks, off-road equipment, farm equipment, light/medium duty vehicles)
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Reductions from Control Reductions from Control MeasuresMeasures
• New reductions from recent District rules (not yet in inventory) = 72 tons/day by 2012
• Reductions from new District rules & programs = 46 tons/day by 2012
• Reductions from state & federal mobile source emissions = 80 tons/day by 2014
• Reductions from known District incentive funding = 12 tons/day by 2012
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2012 Attainment “Gap”2012 Attainment “Gap”
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023
Year
VOC+NOx emissions, tpd
Baseline
w/Recent District Rules
w/Proposed District &ARB Controls
Carrying Capacity -Arvin
Carrying Capacities derived from ARB photochemical modeling
300 t/d
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Regulations vs. IncentivesRegulations vs. Incentives
2012 Attainment
2023 Attainment
$7.5 Billion Incentives
$2.9 Billion Incentives
$2.1 Billion Incentives
Recent Local RulesNew Local RegulationsFleet TurnoverNew State MeasuresIncentives
2020 Attainment
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Incentives StrategyIncentives Strategy
• “Air Quality Empowerment Zones”
• Tax incentives for plan/fleet modernization
• Fair share of air quality funds from the state transportation bond
• $200 million/year cash incentives for 10-12 year (50/50 state and federal match)
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When Will the Valley Attain?When Will the Valley Attain?• Attainment is possible with this Plan
• Attainment will “phase in” over time
– Some areas are currently in attainment
– Others will attain as emissions are reduced
• Attainment in Parlier/Edison…
– Requires 35%-40% reduction from 2012 baseline
– Means attainment for all SJV metro areas
– Will be achieved by 2019 with proposed controls
• Over 90% of the Valley population will be in attainment by 2019
• Arvin’s low carrying capacity defines the strategy
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EdisonOildale/
Bakersfield
MaricopaArvin
Shafter
Ash Mtn.Lookout Pt.
Lower Kaweah
Visalia
ParlierFresno
Clovis
Turlock
Merced
Tracy
Stockton
Modesto
Madera
Hanford
20053-yr Avg of 4th highest measurement
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EdisonOildale/
Bakersfield
MaricopaArvin
Shafter
Ash Mtn.Lookout Pt.
Lower Kaweah
Visalia
ParlierFresno
Clovis
Turlock
Merced
Tracy
Stockton
Modesto
Madera
Hanford
2012w/Proposed Controls
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EdisonOildale/
Bakersfield
MaricopaArvin
Shafter
Ash Mtn.Lookout Pt.
Lower Kaweah
Visalia
ParlierFresno
Clovis
Turlock
Merced
Tracy
Stockton
Modesto
Madera
Hanford
2014w/Proposed Controls
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EdisonOildale/
Bakersfield
MaricopaArvin
Shafter
Ash Mtn.Lookout Pt.
Lower Kaweah
Visalia
ParlierFresno
Clovis
Turlock
Merced
Tracy
Stockton
Modesto
Madera
Hanford
2019w/Proposed Controls
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