africa’s new economy: intra-african trade and the blue economy as catalysts for economic...

Presentation by Árni M. Mathiesen Assistant Director-General

Fisheries and Aquaculture DepartmentFood and Agriculture Organization of the

United Nations

23rd ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING OF SHAREHOLDERS OF THE AFRICAN EXPORT-IMPORT BANK (AFREXIMBANK)

MAHE, SEYCHELLES , 20-22 JULY 2016

AFRICA’S NEW ECONOMY: INTRA-AFRICAN TRADE AND THE BLUE ECONOMY AS CATALYSTS FOR ECONOMIC TRANSFORMATION

Plenary Session: The Blue Economy or Economy in the Blues: Can Africa’s Seas and Oceans Transform the Continent?

What is the potential?

Where is the potential?

Why do we need to unlock the potential?

How do we unlock the potential?

What are the problems?

Marine and Fresh water

NASA Planet Earth Photo

About 72% of the Earth’s surface, with about 97 in oceans

BUT

Share of fishery products in total food supply

% 1998 2011

Calories 1.1 1.3

Proteins 6.0 6.7

795 million people estimated to be undernourished in 2014–16, down 100 million in the last decade.

The vast majority, 780 million, live in developing countries.

Hunger

Share of fish in animal protein

• >20% for more than 3 billion people

• >50% in many developing countries:

Cambodia (69%) Maldives (67%) Sierra Leone (65%) Gambia (57%) Bangladesh (56%) Indonesia (55%0 Sri Lanka(54%), Ghana (50%)

A source of the long-chain omega-3 fatty acids Eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA) Docosahexaenoic acid (DHA)

Important for optimal brain and neural system development in children (1000 day window!)

Lowers the risk of coronary heart disease related (CHD) mortality.

A daily intake of 250 mg of EPA and DHA per adult gives optimal protection against CHD.

At least two meals of fish a week!

9

Fish and Nutrition

Fisheries Important Employer Employment growth in FI + AQ higher than in traditional agriculture Millions of people are directly engaged in the fisheries sector Women represent half of those involved in the fisheries sector FI + AQ support the livelihoods of 10-12 % of the global population

Capture Fisheries

Marine Fresh

Aquaculture Marine Fresh

Brackish Finfish Bivalves Seaweed

Crustaceans

What are we achieving now?

What are we achieving now?Fish production and utilization

Fish production

(million tonnes live weight) Per capita fish supply (kg)

Excluding aquatic plants. 2014/2015: estimates/forecast

19501953

19561959

19621965

19681971

19741977

19801983

19861989

19921995

19982001

20042007

20102013

20160

30

60

90

120

150

180

0

4

8

12

16

20

24Non-food uses

Capture for human consumption

Aquaculture for human consumption

Per capita food fish supply

Excluding aquatic plants. 2015: estimate; 2016 forecast

What are we achieving now?Capture fisheries production

million tonnes live weight

Including aquatic plants

2014

Including aquatic plants

0

20000000

40000000

60000000

80000000

100000000Inland watersMarine areas

Freshwater fishes11%

Diadromous fishes

2%

Marine fishes70%

Crustaceans7%

Molluscs8%

Miscellaneous aquatic animals

1%Aquatic plants

1%

million tonnes live weight

Including aquatic plants

What are we achieving now?Aquaculture production

2014

Freshwater fishes42%

Diadromous fishes

5%Marine fishes

2%Crustaceans

7%

Molluscs16%

Miscellaneous aquatic animals

1%

Aquatic plants27%

0

20000000

40000000

60000000

80000000

100000000

120000000

Brackishwater

Freshwater

Marine

Global Primary ProductionTotal Continental 115 billion tons a yearTotal Marine 55 billion tons a year

What is the potential?

Primary ProductionMean NPP (g/m^2/year) Total Continental 773Total Marine 152

What is the potential?

World Biomass/Standing StockTotal Continental 1837 billion tonsTotal Marine 3.9 billion tons

What is the potential?

We are only using a fraction of the Ocean Space and PP today.

1.What can we achieve with in the conventional?2. Can we use more of the PP?

3. Can we increase the PP?

Are there limits? Yes ( Technical, Environmental)

What are the limits? We don’t know

How do we unlock the potential?

FAO Blue Growth InitiativeAim: To contribute to the promotion of sustainable use and conservation of aquatic living resources

Four components:

Capture Fisheries

Aquaculture

Ecosystem services contributing to livelihoods, and

Trade/markets/post harvest and social support

Capture Fisheries:

Increase, Sunken Billions, CCRF, EAF. Biological management and conservation, business management, political/economic

management.

Contribution to Blue Growth :- 10 - 20 million

tons

- USD 50-100 billion annually

Capture fisheries are an important source of food, nutrition, employment and income for millions of people, particularly in remote rural areas

- Capture fisheries face serious challenges: Degraded environment and ecosystems Overexploited fish stocks IUU fishing Climate change and ocean acidification

• .

OECD-FAO Fish Model Projections (2025)

Source: OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2016-2025Countries/regions ranked by per capita fish consumption in 2013-15 average.Countries/regions with declined per capita fish consumption highlighted in red.

WB-FAO-IFPRI Fish to 2030 Projections

Source: World Bank Report on Fish to 2030 (Table 3.7). Countries/regions ranked by per capita fish consumption in 2006. Countries/regions with declined per capita fish consumption highlighted in red

Country/

region

Fish Demand (2030) Total

fish prod. (2012,

mil. tonne)

S-D gap2030

(col. 4 minus col. 3)

kg/cap.Total (mil. tonne

)

WORLD

29.1 261.2

156.5 -104.7

S.S. Africa

10.8 15.1

6.9 -8.2

L.A. & C.

12.2 18.3

14.8 -3.4

N. Africa

12.9 3.7

2.8 -0.8

Europe

27.3 23.4

16.0 -7.4

N. America

29.8 12.9

6.7 -6.1

Oceania

31.9 1.8

1.4 -0.3

Asia

37.0 186.3

107.8 -78.5

Future fish supply and demand projections

FAO/FI Fish Supply-Demand Gap Projections

Source: Estimation of FI/FAO (preliminary results)Main assumptions: 1) Per capita fish demand affected by income growth. 2) Fish price unchanged. 3) Preference over fish unchanged

JapanChina

Australia and New ZealandNorth America

Asia and Oceania dev.ingEurope

Northern AfricaLatin America & Caribbean

Sub-Saharan AfricaIndia

WORLD

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

49.147.2

31.724.3

26.422.2

16.712.2

9.16.7

21.8

2025Average 2013-15

Aquaculture:

GAAP, EAA, biological management and conservation (incl. bio-security), business management, planning and regulatory

implementationContribution toBlue Growth:

• 50-100 million tonnes a year

Trade/markets/post harvest and social support:

Waste reduction, non-food v. food utilization, customs tariff issues, most traded, social complexities in Small Scale Fisheries.

Contribution to Blue growth:

• From non-food: 10 million tonnes • From waste

food: 15 million tonnes

Other or “novel” ecosystem services:

Mangroves, storm/wave bulwarks, sea-grass carbon sequestration and UN-REDD, greater symbiosis with crops (rice etc./fish production, fertilizer/pesticide

runoffs), tourism (nature, culinary, culture), salt beds, algae and phytoplankton primary production.

Contribution to Blue Growth: The sky’s the limit !!!

…”in cod we trust”…..but

Source: Statistics Iceland

1981: catch of 460 th.tn

1984 quota system

2008: catch of 151 th.tn.

263 thousand.tn: average catch 1945-20142014:catch of 238 th.tn.

Implementation of research outcomes creates impact

State of World Marine Fish Stocks

Where is the potential?

Pathways

SCIENCE

INFORMATION

POLICY

PROJECTS

SCALING UP INVESTMENTS

Global Policy and Trade Session: Outlook for world seafood trade 2030 prospects and challenges, 1st March 2016, Bergen, Norwayhttp://www.slideshare.net/FAOoftheUN/global-policy-and-trade-session-outlook-for-world-seafood-trade-2030-prospects-and-challenges

Combatting IUU Fishing through the implementation of the Port State Measures Agreement and other instruments , 15 th February 2016, London, United Kingdomhttp://www.slideshare.net/FAOoftheUN/combatting-iuu-fishing-through-the-implementation-of-the-port-state-measures-agreement-and-other-instruments

Celebrating 20 Years of the Code of Conduct for Responsible Fisheries 153rd Session FAO Council , Rome, 30 November - 4 December 2015 http://www.slideshare.net/FAOoftheUN/celebrating-20-years-of-the-code-of-conduct-for-responsible-fisheries-presentation-under-fao-council-153rd-session-rome-30-november-4-december-2015

International Trade in Fish and Fish Production“Foro Económico de Pesca y Acuacultura 2015”Mexico City 26-27 November 2015http://www.slideshare.net/FAOoftheUN/international-trade-in-fish-and-fish-production

Workshop on the Climate Change’s Impact, Boracay Islands, Philippines 9th May 2015:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OQ-fS2TZX_Y

Blue bio-economy - unlocking the potential of seas and oceans, International Conference Growth in Blue Bio-economy, FAROE ISL ANDS • 2-3 JUNE 2015http://www.slideshare.net/rniMatthiasMathiesen/blue-bio-economy-unlocking-the-potential-of-seas-and-oceans

Outlook for Fish Trade 2030, 10th North Atlantic Seafood Conference, Bergen, 4-5 March 2015http://www.slideshare.net/FAOoftheUN/outlook-for-fish-trade-2030-10th-north-atlantic-seafood-conference-bergen-45-march-2015?ref=http://www.fao.org/fishery/DirectorsMedia/en

Future Prospects for Fisheries and Aquaculture and their contribution to preserving food security, Lima, Peru, 24 February 2015Future Prospects for Fisheries and Aquaculture and their contribution to preserving food security - YouTube

Presentations

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