addressing vulnerabilities to accident, sabotage and terror: science and technologies in secure...

Addressing Vulnerabilities to accident, sabotage and terror:

Science and Technologies in Secure Energy Systems

Richard WilsonMallinckrodt Research Professor of Physics

Harvard University

Special Lecture at the University of Kuwait January 15th 2003

Modern Society is very Vulnerable

in many different ways

Energy systemsComputer Networks

Transportation Networks

USE AN EVENT TREEWe must take into account the

Low (Accident) Probability High Consequence event.

(We discussed this in Lecture 1)

Terrorists will and try to make it more probable

Do not store a lot of fuel in one place

near a lot of people in one place. (Wigner)  Oil tanks and LNG facilities should be in

remote areas.   (In 1848 London decided to keep petroleum

products 30 miles from London bridge in Canvey Island)

Terrorism and Sabotage already considered for nuclear power.

Hydroelectric DamsMankind has built Ports and

Cities on Estuaries and Rivers

Flood Control Dams and Hydroelectric

Dams are in upper reaches Folsom Dam above Sacramento

Littleton Dam on Connecticut River

Missouri/Missisippi is worse!!

LNG is a fuel almost ready to burn/explode

Just mix with air/oxygen

Typical 17 million gallon tank could be 20 Hiroshimas

Keep your distance.

Ammonia tanks and Ammonium Nitrate storage should also be remote.

In 1990 Dr Adnan Shihab Eldin (outside Kuwait) noted the ammomia tank in

Shuwaikh.If valve opened in a notherly wind, it

would have been lethal to the residents 12 mile away.

Solution (found by a Kuwiat in the country) drain the ammonia to the sea

before Saddam noticed.

Transmission Networks have failed for “trivial” reasons

A relay failure in Canada set off the NE blackout of 1967

A substation failure in Naperville ILL shut down O’Hare airport

Few plans for a major fire at WTC? (FEMA report)

Insulation not tested for durabilityFire and initial impact destroyed all safety

mechanisms (Common mode failure not foreseen!

Train Fire fighters in event trees )

Helicopter fire fighters?Protect buildings by cables from

towers or balloons?

World Trade Center Building Construction inadequate in many

waysPort Authority had its own code

No code for the insulation

Langer and Morse suggest that:Insulation sprayed on rusty beamsMay NEVER have stuck properly

Not as good as asbestosNot inspected again after other

trades did their workThey claim that IF asbestos had been

used building would still stand

Inspect the insulation of all buildings over 50 stories high.

(expensive but possible;

e.g. apply a heat source to steel in one location and compare the

temperature - time profile with calculation)

We can protect energy systems a bit better but not enoughwe should step back and:

Try to stop terrorists being created

Try to stop terrorists having access

WITHOUT ruining our society

Imagine what a terrorist might do: and

devise a system to make it hard for him to do it. 

Stop the event as early in the chain as possible

(dont let trouble spots fester)

Event Tree Analysis

The chain starts even further back:

(1) Creation of a terrorist(2) Terrorist has access to a

vulnerable system(3) Terrorist acts

The best strategy is trying to stop terrorists being created

Trying to prevent access can be done in a variety of ways

Possible criteria for choosing sides A terrorist is a man with a bomb and no airplane to drop it from (EM Purcell, 1983).

The Azeris were bad first (Elena Bonner, 1984) 

"Single acts of tyranny may be ascribed to the accidental opinion of the day; but a series of

oppressions, begun in a distinguished period and pursued unilaterally thro' every change of ministers, too plainly prove a deliberate, systematical plan of reducing

us to slavery".

  Thomas Jefferson (1774)

One man's terrorist is another man's freedom fighter.

Monachem Begin; terrorist in 1945 leader of Israel 1978

Bourgiba, jailed in Cairo, first President of Tunisia

    A rebellion is a Revolution that does

not succeed (Victor Weisskopf) May 1940,  I learned unarmed combat.

Was I becoming a terrorist or a Freedom fighter?

30 years ago a friend of mine became a terrorist.

Then he became a freedom fighter

Within 6 months he was a statesman

He did not change. He lives in Bangladesh

Trying to prevent access to facilities by terrorists is never perfect but can be done in a

variety of ways

Use profiling to identify suspicous groups

(BUT studies show that terrorists are just like us)

Keep track of all suspicious activities.

Dont let anyone near anything dangerous (no handguns

shotguns etc)

Fundamental Question

How does the United States have a

Department of Homeland Security with extraordinary

powerswithout it becoming like the

infamous KGB?

USSR society was probably more free from crime.

They did it by fear.

Some terrorists are now educated.

Also some act in concert

    Sabotage and terrorism are unfortunate facts of life.

  They will be with us until the end

of the human race. 

We must not let terrorism distort our lives.

Other risks are bigger.Car accidents:

45,000/yr vs. 3,500 onceDrugs destroy society more

Security vs. FreedomOur human rights are what makes life worth living.

“If you still want to belong to an organization dedicated to killing Americans, there’s always the tobacco lobby.”

Alex Gregory, Cartoonbank.com

Weapons of Mass Destruction Nuclear weapons

Biological Weapons

must be treated differently(Chemical weapons, phosgene

and Mustard gas are more ordinary)

August 1940 I saw a first air raid on London

50 lbs of TNT destroyed a house; killed one person

19441 ton of TNT was a block buster. It destroyed

a city block

19458,000 tons of TNT equivalent destroyed a city

We have 3,000 atomic bombseach ~ 200,000 tons ready to go.

THEY COULD DESTROY CIVILIZATIONLarge consequence: let us keep it low

probability

In 1945 Scientists (e.g Einstein and Szilard) argued for International Control

General Groves argued for overwhelming US strength

Following Eisenhowwer182 nations agreed: not to make nuclear weapons

allow inspections - in exchange for help in peaceful nuclear activities.

GW BUSH seems to prefer Groves approach reversing 57 years of international policy

The world MUST take violations of NPT seriously

BUTif the only country to kill anyone with atomic bombs were to act

unilaterally we would be set back 57 years

But the other countries MUST act with thought and independence.

Kuwaitis please think carefully about it.