adaptation start to finish in colombia

Climate change adaptation from

start to finish: The case for

Colombia

Climate anomolies and production anomolies go

hand in hand

Fuente: Agronet y CRU (http://badc.nerc.ac.uk/data/cru/)

The

challenge:

Colombia

is a victim

of climate

variability

Maíz

T-Max

T-Max

Rendimiento

Rendimiento

Arroz

And in the longterm

• Coffee suitability in theCauca region

• Significant changes to 2020, drastic changesto 2050

• The Cauca case: reduced coffeeegrowing area and changes in geographicdistribution. Somenew opportunities.

MECETA

Diagnose the problem

Vulnerability mappingFood security Income

Listen to farmers

• Listen to local perspectives of vulnerability• Participatory identification of adaptation options

Girardot - Maize San Gil - Beans

Ipiales - Potato

A systematic look at impacts and economic costs across LAC

• Detailed crop modelling of climate impacts across LAC

• Analysis of social and economic impacts

• Zoom in analysis at national level

Crops Food Supply (kcal/capita/day)

Harvested Area (Ha)

Net Production Value (constant

2004-2006 1000 I$)

Contribution to GDP

DSSAT model?

IMPACT? Regional Importance

Soybean 170 41,171,982.60 27,707,066 5 y mixed y

Sugar Cane 383 10,270,087.00 25,072,226 13 n y y

Maize 435 28,633,254.40 6,087,072 5 y y y

Wheat 331 8,988,559.80 3,505,114 1 y y n

Rice 296 5,943,971.40 7,092,796 8 y y y

Beans 90 7,240,355.00 3,602,564 2 y mixed y

Tomatoes 11 342,874.20 4,107,232 1 n n y

Pineapples 5 199,494.00 1,902,269 2 n n y

Bananas 34 1,190,503.00 7,065,053 16 n mixed y

Coffee 3 5,706,389.00 4,986,781 4 n n y

Sorghum 6 2,052,958.80 127,456 0 y y y

Potatoes 34 998,955.20 2,453,723 1 y y y

Onions 7 242,739.60 1,167,699 0 n n y

Oranges, Mandarines

17 1,495,006.20 5,170,592 1 n n y

Palm 64 1,085,119.00 1,078,458 1 n mixed n

Lemons, Limes

3 319,617.20 2,095,406 0 n n y

Grapes 3 547,380.00 4,124,806 1 n n n

Cottonseed Oil

8 1,873,788.60 953,103 0 n mixed n

Apples 5 192,937.80 1,748,896 0 n n n

Nuts 6 574,795.65 943,316 0 n n n

Coconut 21 676,841.00 589,058 0 n n n

Groundnuts 11 534,019.00 515,363 1 y mixed n

Cassava 44 2,747,793.60 2,027,450 3 n y y

Plantains 33 948,142.00 1,572,812 1 n mixed y

Cocoa Beans 3 1,476,678.40 520,235 0 n n n

sunflower 18 2,588,299.00 1,142,205 0 n n n

Yams 12 173,591.40 270,343 2 n n n

Mangoes NA 435,323.20 2,705,656 2 n n n

Prioritise

Practice CBA Quality

1 Silvopastoral Systems 1.5 2.11

2 Efficient Use of Fertilizer 1.4 2.87

3 Improved Forages 1.3 2.85

4 Biogas 1.2 2.36

5

Grass-Legume

Association 1.2 2.11

6 Water harvest structure 1.2 2.08

7

Silage, haylage and

nutritional blocks 1 2.01

9 Early warning systems 1 1.89

Ranked List of Practices

Act

Objectives

1) Generate capacity to reduce agroclimatic risk: modelling impactsand seasonal forecasting

2) Close the yield gap through climate specific agriculture3) Evaluate and generate new adapted technologies4) Evaluate resource efficient production systems (water and carbon

footprints) and establish new incentive structures for theiradoption (PES, NAMAs, low carbon development pathways etc.)

In action

9 Partners

52 Municipalities

16 Departments

>800 experimental lots in 20 localities

> 200 on farm participatory experiments

> 40 events with 660 participants and 32 institutions

97 researchers working on the program

> 70 technologies being evaluated

What defines yield?

51% of yield variation is caused by climate for rice

Matching technologies

with climate in space

and time

PROBABILISTIC PRECIPITATION FORECAST

33

33

33

Above

Normal

Below

38

31

31

22

27

51

37

33

31

39

33

28

Agroclimatic

Seasonal

forecasting

Big opportunities for

reducing water

dependency

Global learning

Leb by

Climate smart villages: Key agricultural activities for managing risks

Pulling the pieces together

Clim

ate

re

silie

nce

Baseline

Adapted technologies

Adapted technologies

+Climate-specific

management

Adapted technologies

+Climate-specific

management+

Seasonal agroclimatic

forecasts

Adapted technologies

+Climate-specific

management+

Seasonal agroclimatic

forecasts+

Efficient resource use

+Enabling

environment NAPs and NAMAs

Climate smartness

Adapted technologies

+Climate-specific

management+

Seasonal agroclimatic

forecasts+

Efficient resource use

Gracias!

www.aclimatesectoragropecuariocolombiano.org