adaptation monitoring, assessment, and planning:...

ADAPTATION MONITORING, ASSESSMENT, AND PLANNING:

A PERSPECTIVE FROM ONTARIO

Scott MacRitchie, P.Geo. Toronto, Ontario

Adaptation in the Great Lakes Conference Ann Arbor, Michigan June 24 – 26, 2014

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OUTLINE

•  Monitoring: Integrated climate and water quantity and quality monitoring for climate change detection and adaptation.

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OUTLINE

•  Monitoring: Integrated climate and water quantity and quality monitoring for climate change detection and adaptation.

•  Assessment: Vulnerability assessment at a watershed scale.

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OUTLINE

•  Monitoring: Integrated climate and water quantity and quality monitoring for climate change detection and adaptation.

•  Assessment: Vulnerability assessment at a watershed scale.

•  Planning: Adaptation planning at a watershed scale.

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BACKGROUND

•  Conservation Authority: Watershed based management agency.

•  CCME: Canadian Council of Ministers of the Environment.

•  COA: Canada-Ontario Agreement. •  Lake Simcoe: Ontario’s largest inland

lake

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MONITORING

COA Project: Review of monitoring networks for climate change.

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MONITORING

COA Project: Review of monitoring networks for climate change.

DETECTION

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MONITORING

COA Project: Review of monitoring networks for climate change.

DETECTION

ADAPTATION

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MONITORING

COA Project: Review of monitoring networks for climate change.

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PARKHILL CREEK

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PARKHILL CREEK INTEGRATED MONITORING STATION

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PARKHILL CREEK INTEGRATED MONITORING STATION

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PARKHILL CREEK INTEGRATED MONITORING STATION

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INTEGRATED MONITORING DATA TRANSMISSION

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PARKHILL DATA EXAMPLE: JULY 2012 TO JUNE 2014

GROUNDWATER

STREAM

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CCME MONITORING GUIDANCE

Prioritization within study area: Sensitivity, Ecosystem Service Valuation,

Ombrothermic (Climate Moisture Index [Precip - Potential ET])

http://www.ccme.ca/publications/list_publications.html#link8

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CCME MONITORING GUIDANCE

Network evaluation within prioritized areas:

Audit (workshop), Network Degradation, Multivariate

Prioritization within study area: Sensitivity, Ecosystem Service Valuation, Ombrothermic (Climate Moisture Index –

Precip - Potential ET)

http://www.ccme.ca/publications/list_publications.html#link8

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MONITORING: NEXT STEPS

•  Subwatershed modelling 2015 – 2016 –  Integrated surface-groundwater model – Nitrate discharge – Land use – Baseline water budget – Repeat every 10 years

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VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT

Vulnerability = Exposure + Sensitivity! " " "Adaptive Capacity!

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IMPACT ASSESSMENT: LAKE SIMCOE

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LAKE SIMCOE AND 18 SUBWATERSHEDS

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•  23 municipalities •  Drinking water source for 6 communities

•  15 sewage treatment plants

•  12% is urbanized, which is increasing rapidly •  City of Barrie was the fastest growing area in Canada

from 2001-2006 (20%)

•  Large increase in urban land cover (85 km2 in 1991 to 285 km2 in 2001)

•  47% of catchment is agricultural •  e.g., Holland Marsh

LAKE SIMCOE BASICS

From Eleanor Stainsby, 2014. Science and Monitoring: Lake Simcoe and its Watershed. Presentation to Denlow Public School, April 11, 2014.

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EXPOSURE ASSESSMENT

•  Simple Water Balance used to assess exposure.

• P = ET + Surplus + ΔStorage

• Potential ET > Actual ET

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WATER BALANCE 1971 – 2000 MONTHLY P AND T FOR SAND SOIL

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WATER BALANCE 2071 – 2100 MONTHLY P AND T FOR SAND SOIL

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Comparison of water balance results from 10 2100 climate models and 1971 – 2000 climate

normals

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SENSITIVITY ASSESSMENT

Water Quantity and Quality Indicators:

Water Availability Baseflow Index Wetland Cover

Groundwater Vulnerability Forest Cover

Phosphorus Loading Variability of Streamflow

Floodplain Area Sewage Bypass

http://www.climateontario.ca/p_ls.php

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CCME VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT GUIDANCE

http://www.ccme.ca/publications/list_publications.html#link8

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CCME VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT GUIDANCE

Tools for Assessing Exposure: • Lumped Models • Semi-distributed models • Fully-distributed models • Indicators Tools for Assessing Sensitivity: • Watersheds • Human Communities • Freshwater Ecosystems Tools for Assessing Adaptive Capacity: • Human Communities • Resilience of Freshwater Ecosystems

http://www.ccme.ca/publications/list_publications.html#link8

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ASSESSMENT: SUGGESTED NEXT STEPS

Determinants 1: •  economic resources; •  technology; •  infrastructure; •  information, skills, and management; •  institutions and networks; and •  equity Capital:

(i)  Human (ii)  Social (iii) Physical (iv) Financial (v)  Natural

Determinants 2: (i)  Actor assets (ii)  Community

resources (iii)  Institutions

Assessment of Adaptive Capacity • Difficult but essential

• Need for more experience

Relate adaptive capacity to sensitivity indicators

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ASSESSMENT: SUGGESTED NEXT STEPS

Figure : Top-down and bottom-up approaches to climate change adaptation. Source Dessai and Hulme (3)

Climate adaptation

policy

Top-down approach

Vulnerability (social) ↑

Adaptive Capacity ↑

Indicators based on: Technology

Economic resources Information and skills

Infrastructure Equity

Institutions

Bottom-up approach Past Present Future

Global

Local

World development ↓

Global greenhouse gases ↓

Global climate models ↓

Regionalization ↓

Impacts ↓

Vulnerability (physical)

Dessai, S., and M. Hulme. 2004. Does climate adaptation policy need probabilities? Climate Policy. 4(2): 107-128.

Top-down

Bottom-up

Combination

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CCME GUIDANCE: IMPLEMENTATION FRAMEWORK FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

ADAPTATION PLANNING AT A WATERSHED SCALE (2014, IN PRESS)

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PLANNING FRAMEWORK PRINCIPLES

http://www.ccme.ca/publications/list_publications.html#link8

•  Water quantity and quality •  Different watershed scales •  Top-down and bottom-up •  Developing assessment indicators •  Adaptive management •  Effectiveness monitoring •  Mainstreaming •  Uncertainty

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CONCLUSIONS •  Integration: monitoring-modeling-management,

science-policy. •  4 C’s: Collaboration, Coordination, Cooperation,

Communication: disciplines, jurisdictions, public (stakeholders).

•  Uncertainty is not going away: how to manage and build infrastructure in a non-stationary future.

•  Assessing Adaptive Capacity. •  Adaptation measures: No-low regrets, hard/soft, costs/

benefits, implementation issues (water governance), mainstreaming.

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PRINCIPLES FOR ADAPTATION

Five Principles for Climate Change Adaptation Law

Principle #1: Monitor and Study Everything All the Time Principle #2: Eliminate or Reduce Non–Climate Change Stresses

and Otherwise Promote Resilience Principle #3: Plan for the Long Term with Much Increased

Coordination Across Media, Sectors, Interests, and Governments

Principle #4: Promote Principled Flexibility in Regulatory Goals and Natural Resource Management

Principle #5: Accept — Really Accept — That Climate Change Adaptation Will Often Be Painful

Robin Kundis Craig, 2010. STATIONARITY IS DEAD”— LONG LIVE TRANSFORMATION: FIVE PRINCIPLES FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION LAW, Harvard Environmental Law Review, Vol. 34, No. 1, pp. 9 – 75, 2010