acid rain revisited hubbard brook research foundation
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Acid Rain Revisited
Hubbard Brook Research Foundation
Science Links
Bridging the Gap betweenScience and Policy
Outline
• Patterns of Emissions and Deposition
• Forest Ecosystem Effects
• Ecosystem Response to Management Strategies
• Conclusions
Patterns of Emissions and Deposition
Time (years)
allowances allocated for that yearall sourcesPhase I sources
Phase II sources
SO2 Emission Reductions under the Acid Rain Program
9.4 9.3 8.7
5.3 5.44 5.47 5.29 4.94
7.527.817.51
7.076.57
7.036.7917.3
11.210.6 10.2 10.6
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
1980 1985 1990 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Em
issio
ns (m
illio
n to
ns) s
9.4 9.3
5.3 5.35.55.4
8.7
4.9
12.513.113.012.5
11.9
15.716.117.3
11.210.6 10.2 10.6
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
1980 1985 1990 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Em
issio
ns (m
illio
n to
ns) s
SO2 Allowance Price Index
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04
Source: Cantor Fitzgerald
0
5
10
15
20
25
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
SO2 Emissions and the Allowance Bank, 1995- 2003
8.7
11.7 13.5
15.0
16.6
21.6
18.818.1
19.9
Allowances allocated that year
Unused allowances from previous year (bank)Actual emissions from affected sources
SO
2 Em
issi
ons
(mil
lion
ton
s)
1990 emissionsPhase I (1995-1999) average emissionsPhase II (2000-2003) average emissions
scale: 1990 emissions in Ohio were 2.2 million tons
SO2 Emission Reductions, by State
projected emissions level in the absence of Title IV
8.1
1990 emissionsPhase I (1996-1999) average emissionsPhase II (2000-2003) average emissions
scale: 1990 emissions in Ohio were 500,000 tons
NOx Emission Reductions, by State
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
SO
2 E
mis
sio
ns
Mill
ion
sh
ort
to
ns
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
with Canadian Emissionsw/out Canadian Emissions
Year
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
NO
x E
mis
sio
ns
Mill
ion
sh
ort
to
ns
0
2
4
6
8
Source Area Includes: VT, MA, NY, NH, CT, RI, ME, OH, PA, DC, MD, NJ, DE, MI, VA, WV, QUE, ONT
SO2 Emissions - 24 hr source area (Million metric tons)
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16
Hub
bard
Bro
ok
Pre
cipi
tatio
n S
O4
(eq
/L)
0
20
40
60
80
Y= 3.82X + 5.73r ²=0.764
NOx Emissions - 24 hr source area (Million metric tons)
0 2 4 6 8
Hub
bard
Bro
okP
reci
pita
tion
NO
3
(eq
/L)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Y= 7.31X - 24.99r ²=0.393
Forest Ecosystem Effects
Soil Acid Rain Effects
• Soil S and N enrichment
• Nutrient cation (Ca2+, Mg2+) depletion
• Al mobilization
Aquatic Effects
Summary (n=1469)
No. of Lakes (%) Surface area (ha) (%)
pH < 5.0 352 24 2,000 8.4
ANC < 0 µeq/L 388 26 2,650 11
Ecosystem Response to Management Strategies
Critical Chemical Indicators for Ecosystem Response to Acidic
Deposition
TerrestrialSoil and soil water
Ca/Al < 1
Soil base saturation < 20%
AquaticSurface waters
pH < 6.0ANC < 50 eq/LAl > 2 mol/L
SO
4 (
eq/L
)
45
90
135
180
NO
3 (
eq/L
)
20
40
60
80
100
AN
C ( e
q/L)
-40-30-20-10
010203040
pH
4
5
6
Year
1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999
Ali
(m
ol/L
)
02468
101214
Ali
(µm
ol/L)
pH
AN
C
(µeq/L
)N
O3 (
µeq/L
)SO
4 (µ
eq/L
)
Num
ber of
Lak
es w
ith
Sig
nific
ant Tre
nds
and
Direc
tion
of T
rend
-20
-10
0
10
20
p < 0.05p < 0.10
Adirondack Lakes6/1982-12/2000
n=16
SO4 NO3 S+N CB ANC pH Ali DOC
Num
ber of
Lak
es w
ith
Sig
nific
ant Tre
nds
and
Direc
tion
of T
rend
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
p < 0.05p < 0.10
Adirondack Lakes6/1992-12/2000
n=48
SO4 NO3 S+N CB ANC pH Ali DOC
pH
4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0
Nu
mb
er o
f F
ish
Sp
ecie
s
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
20001982-83
pH (2000)
4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0
Cha
nge
in N
umbe
r of
Fis
h S
peci
es
1982
-200
0
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
Model Predictions of the Response of Soil and Water
to Acidic Deposition:
Past and Future
Climatic data•Solar radiation•Precipitation•Temperature
PnET Water balance Photosynthesis Living biomass Litterfall
Net Mineralization
BGC – Surface water Aqueous reactions
Uptake
Deep water flow
Shallow water flow
Weathering
Wet Deposition
Dry Deposition
BGC• Aqueous reactions• Surface reactions
• Cation exchange• Adsorption• Humic binding• Aluminum dissolution/precipitation
Policy or ProposalNOx
(million short tons)
SO2
(million short tons)Deadline for
Implementation4
Pollutant?
1990 Clean Air Act 4.6 8.9 2010 No
Jeffords Bill S.556 (as amended)
1.5
66% reduction from 1997 levels
2.25
75% reduction fromPhase II levels of 1990 CAAAs
2008 Yes
Smith Bill S.2815 (Clear Skies)
2.1 by 2010
1.7 by 2018
67% of current levels
4.5 by 2010
3.0 by 2018
73% of current emissions
2010 and 2018 3 pollutant
Carper Bill S.843
(Clean Air Planning Act of 2003)
1.87 by 2009-2012
1.7 after 2013
4.5 by 2009-2012
3.5 by 2013-2015
2.25 after 2016
2009, 2013, 2016 3 pollutant
Clinton Bill S.588 Approx. 2.1 in
2004-2006
56% reduction from 1990 levels
Approx. 1.38
70% reduction from 1990 CAAAs levels
Approx. 4.45 by 2007
50% reduction from 1990 CAAAs levels
2004-2006:
2007
No
SO2 Cap and Trade Program:Expected Annual Costs by 2010
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