achieving replacement level fertility: creating a sustainable food future, installment 3

December 9, 2013

Richard Waite, Associate, Food, Forests and Water Program Photo Source: EU Humanitarian Aid and Civil Protection

CREATING A SUSTAINABLE FOOD FUTURE:ACHIEVING REPLACEMENT LEVEL FERTILITY

• The food challenge and menu of solutions

• Population, food security, and environment: Focus on Africa

• Effective approaches to reducing fertility rates

Agenda

HOW CAN THE WORLD FEED MORE THAN 9 BILLION PEOPLE IN 2050 IN A MANNER THAT

ADVANCES DEVELOPMENT AND REDUCES PRESSURE ON THE ENVIRONMENT?

Source: WRI analysis based on Alexandratos, N., and J. Bruinsma. 2012. World agriculture towards

2030/2050: The 2012 revision. Rome: FAO.

The world needs to close the food gap

Source: World Bank. 2012. World Development Indicators. Accessible at:

<http://databank.worldbank.org/Data/Home.aspx> (accessed December 13, 2012).

The world needs agriculture to support economic development

The world needs to reduce agriculture’s environmental impactShare of global impact (percent in 2010)

Source: WRI analysis based on IEA (2012); EIA (2012); EPA (2012); Houghton (2008); FAO (2011); FAO (2012); Foley et al. (2005).

7070

100% = 3862 km3 H2O

2437

100% = 49 Gt CO2e 100% = 13.3 bn ha

WATER WITHDRAWAL

GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS

EARTH’S LANDMASS (EX-ANTARCTICA)

A menu of solutions is required to sustainably close the food gap Global annual crop production (kcal trillion)*

Source: WRI analysis based on Bruinsma, J. 2009. The Resource Outlook to 2050: By how much do land, water and crop yields need to increase by 2050? Rome: FAO; Alexandratos, N., and J. Bruinsma. 2012. World agriculture towards 2030/2050: The 2012 revision. Rome: FAO.

* Includes all crops intended for direct human consumption, animal feed, industrial uses, seeds, and biofuels

Illustrative

Consumption Reduce food loss and waste Shift to healthier diets Achieve replacement level fertility Reduce biofuel demand for food crops

Production Sustainably increase crop yields

- Boost yields through attentive crop breeding- Improve soil and water management- Expand onto low-carbon degraded lands

Sustainably increase productivity of livestock- Increase productivity of pasture and grazing lands- Reduce then stabilize wild fish catch- Increase productivity of aquaculture

Menu for a sustainable food future (Preliminary)

Menu for a sustainable food future

Contributes to feeding everyone in 2050 while satisfying (or not negatively impacting) a number of criteria:

Poverty alleviation

Gender

Ecosystems

Climate

Water

Photo source: Andrew So.

The world’s population is projected to grow from about 7 billion people in 2012 to nearly 9.6 billion in 2050, with half of growth in sub-Saharan AfricaPopulation (in billions)

Note: “SSA” = Sub-Saharan Africa, including Sudan. “LAC” = Latin America and Caribbean. “N America” = North America. “N Africa” = Rest of Africa.

Source: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (UNDESA). 2013. World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision. New York: United Nations. Total population by major area, region, and country. Medium fertility scenario.

All regions except sub-Saharan Africa are projected to reach replacement level fertility by 2050Total fertility rate

Source: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (UNDESA). 2013. World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision. New York: United Nations. Total fertility by major area, region, and country. Medium fertility scenario.

Note: “SSA” = Sub-Saharan Africa, including Sudan. “LAC” = Latin America and Caribbean. “N America” = North America. “N Africa” = Rest of Africa.

1.5

25% population undernourished

tons/hectare - cereal yields

Source: FAO, WFP and IFAD (2013), WRI analysis based on FAOSTAT (2012), WRI analysis based on Alexandratos and Bruinsma (2012).

Population, food security and environment in sub-Saharan Africa: a perfect storm?

25% cereals imported

High population growth will create a large “food gap” in sub-Saharan AfricaGlobal annual crop production (kcal trillion)*

Source: WRI analysis based on Bruinsma, J. 2009. The Resource Outlook to 2050: By how much do land, water and crop yields need to increase by 2050? Rome: FAO; Alexandratos, N., and J. Bruinsma. 2012. World agriculture towards 2030/2050: The 2012 revision. Rome: FAO.

2006 - food availability 2050 - baseline food

availability needed

660

2,380

* Includes all crops intended for direct human consumption, animal feed, industrial uses, seeds, and biofuels

Achieving replacement level fertility could help close the global 2050 food gapGlobal annual crop production (kcal trillion)*

Source: WRI analysis based on Bruinsma, J. 2009. The Resource Outlook to 2050: By how much do land, water and crop yields need to increase by 2050? Rome: FAO; Alexandratos, N., and J. Bruinsma. 2012. World agriculture towards 2030/2050: The 2012 revision. Rome: FAO.

2006 - food availability 2050 - baseline food

availability needed

9,500

16,000

* Includes all crops intended for direct human consumption, animal feed, industrial uses, seeds, and biofuels

Reduced demand (worldwide

replacement level fertility)

10%

Achieving replacement level fertility could help close sub-Saharan Africa’s 2050 food gapGlobal annual crop production (kcal trillion)*

Source: WRI analysis based on Bruinsma, J. 2009. The Resource Outlook to 2050: By how much do land, water and crop yields need to increase by 2050? Rome: FAO; Alexandratos, N., and J. Bruinsma. 2012. World agriculture towards 2030/2050: The 2012 revision. Rome: FAO.

2006 - food availability 2050 - baseline food

availability needed

660

2,380

* Includes all crops intended for direct human consumption, animal feed, industrial uses, seeds, and biofuels

Reduced demand (worldwide

replacement level fertility)

25%

Achieving replacement level fertility can bring about a “demographic dividend”

Source: WRI analysis based on Bruinsma, J. 2009. The Resource Outlook to 2050: By how much do land, water and crop yields need to increase by 2050? Rome: FAO; Alexandratos, N., and J. Bruinsma. 2012. World agriculture towards 2030/2050: The 2012 revision. Rome: FAO.

Singapore

Hong Kong

South Korea

Taiwan

Achieving replacement level fertility can avoid additional environmental impacts from agriculture

Source: World Bank. 2012. Databank: “Fertility rate, total (births per woman).” Data retrieved November 30, 2012, from World Development Indicators Online (WDI) database.

Total fertility rates can decline rapidlyTotal fertility rate

Sub-Saharan Africa has the highest total fertility ratesTotal fertility rate (2005–2010)

Source: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (UNDESA). 2013. World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision. New York: United Nations.

Photo Source: Travis Lupick.

Approach 1: Educate girls

Sub-Saharan Africa has the lowest total share of women with at least lower secondary educationPercent of women ages 20–39 with at least lower secondary education (2005–2010)

Source: Harper, S. 2012. “People and the planet.” University of Oxford. Presentation at The Royal Society, London, April 2012.

Photo Source: UK Department for International Development (DFID).

Approach 2: Reduce child and infant mortality

Sub-Saharan Africa has the highest child mortality ratesMortality of children under age 5 per 1,000 live births (2005–2010)

Source: World Bank. 2012. Databank: “Mortality rate, under-5 (per 1,000 live births).” Data retrieved April 2, 2013, from World Development Indicators Online (WDI) database.

Photo Source: Travis Lupick.

Approach 3: Increase access to reproductive health services, including family planning

Source: World Bank. 2012. Databank: “Contraceptive prevalence (% of women ages 15-49).” Data retrieved April 2, 2013, from World Development Indicators Online (WDI) database.

Sub-Saharan Africa has the lowest share of women using contraceptionPercent of women ages 15–49 using contraception (2005–2010)

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