a us nopp project to stimulate wave research · 2015. 12. 22. · tolman, 6/25/2012 ecmwf workshop...
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Tolman, 6/25/2012 ECMWF Workshop on Ocean Waves, 1/26
A US NOPP project tostimulate wave researchFocus on operations and deep water
Hendrik L. TolmanChief, Marine Modeling and Analysis BranchNOAA / NWS / NCEP / EMC
Hendrik.Tolman@NOAA.gov
Tolman, 6/25/2012 ECMWF Workshop on Ocean Waves, 2/26
NOPP
“The National Oceanographic Partnership Program (NOPP) is a collaboration of federal agencies to provide leadership and coordination of national oceanographic research and education initiatives. “
http://www.nopp.org/about-nopp/
Tolman, 6/25/2012 ECMWF Workshop on Ocean Waves, 3/26
Motivation
NOPP project: Improving Wind Wave Predictions; Global and Regional Scales
Considering progress in understanding of wave model physics, particularly dissipation and economical interaction approximations, Linwood, Don and Hendrik started pushing for this project after the 2008 Ocean Sciences meeting.
Buy-in from:
ONR, BOEM (was MMS) with funding.
NOAA, USACE, NRL with in-kind contributions.
Focus on operational modeling, basin and shelf scale.
Several “surf-zone” proposals also funded.
Tolman, 6/25/2012 ECMWF Workshop on Ocean Waves, 4/26
Outline
Outline of paper:
NOPP teams
Validation data.
Validation techniques.
30 year hindcast.
Code management.
Outlook.
Tolman, 6/25/2012 ECMWF Workshop on Ocean Waves, 5/26
NOPP teams
PI-s Topics Focus areas
Ardhuin in+ds Dissipation (breaking, swell, bottom)Unstructured grids in WW III.
Babanin in+ds Observations based + swell diss.
Banner in+ds Extreme conditions, explicit breaking prediction, fluxes including sea spray
Perrie nl Two-Scale Approximation.
Tim Janssen nl (shal) Combine quads & triads, field data sets.
Zakharov /Pushkarev
nl+in+ds Advanced statistical and dynamical nonlinear models + input and dissipation
Kaihatu /Sheremet
shal Traditional mud and vegitation modelsTwo-layer Boussinesq mod. Field data.
Van Vledder shal Shallow water models and obs.,including surf beats.
Hanson shal Duck data sets, spatial partitioning.
Tolman, 6/25/2012 ECMWF Workshop on Ocean Waves, 6/26
NOPP teams
Organization PIs In-kind contributions
USACE ResioSmith
FRF + Currituck Sound data.New source terms / studies (in+nl+ds)IMEDS + Additional model metricsWAM/STWAVE + ADCIRC couplingPartitioning + tracking (with NCEP)
NOAA/NCEP TolmanAlves
ChawlaV/d W.
Source terms + QS model for WW III.Code management for WW III.NOPP data server.Pre-operational testing of new ST.30 year wave hindcasts.
NRL/Stennis Rogers Campbell
Curvilinear grids in mosaic (WW III).ESMF wrapper (SWAN, WW III).Automated regression testing (WW III).Code management best practices.
Tolman, 6/25/2012 ECMWF Workshop on Ocean Waves, 7/26
Validation data
Two type of validation / data important for operational wave models. Model needs to work all the time:
Bulk long term validation / development against routine observations.
In-situ, altimeter, SAR (?).
Model needs to make physical sense.
Directed measurement campaigns focused on specific physics of waves.
Individual campaigns.
Data mining of routine observations.
Select data set types and conditions, rather than campaigns.
Tolman, 6/25/2012 ECMWF Workshop on Ocean Waves, 8/26
Validation data
Conditions Data sources
Long term validation In-situ, altimeters, SAR.
Wind Sea and Swell “JONSWAP”, Great Lakes, Lake George, SAR, Tehuantepec, Duck.Spectral partitioning of buoy data.
Non-Aligned winds Slanting fetch, Tropical cyclones (Duck, SRA, WSRA).
Extreme conditions TCs, data mining.
Diminishing winds FAIRs, data mining, tradewind and monsoon data (INCOIS, …)
Shallow water Data sets provided by teams, older bottom friction data sets.
Tolman, 6/25/2012 ECMWF Workshop on Ocean Waves, 9/26
Validation techniques
Going beyond the traditional validation
techniques used for wave models. Traditional: bulk error measures:
Mean, std, SI, r2, scatter/pdf, sometimes qq …
Event-based statistics:
Peak values, timing, shape of signal.
Spectral wave model validation:
Ridge plots identifying individual swell events.
IMEDS analysis using spectral partitioning.
For forecasting, hit-miss statistics are very important, but rarely used in scientific papers.
Use additional relevant physical parameters, mss, peakedness, etc ….
Tolman, 6/25/2012 ECMWF Workshop on Ocean Waves, 10/26
Validation techniques
Using more concise presentations.
Taylor diagram.
Variance
Correlation
Error
Target plot
Bias
Error0.
5
1
0
0.5
0
1
1
0.99
0.95
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.40.3
0.20.10
Sta
nd
ard
dev
iati
on
Co r r e l a t i on
Coe
ff
i ci e
nt
RM
S
D
Wind speed during January 2010 based on 75 buoys
A
BCDE
Tolman, 6/25/2012 ECMWF Workshop on Ocean Waves, 11/26
30 year hindcast
The Climate Forecast System (CFS) reanalysis and re-forecasting project (CFSRR) provides a 30+ year high resolution wind field 0.5° hourly wind and temperature fields.
Associated 0.5° daily ice analyses.
This data set appears ideal to be the basis of a wave reanalysis over the same 30+ year period. There is insufficient data in any period to obtain a data-
dominated analysis, therefore
It makes more sense to do a hindcast without assimilation, and use data possibly later for bias corrections of the hindcast only.
Ideal as basis for long-term validation in NOPP project.
http://cfs.ncep.noaa.gov/cfsr
Tolman, 6/25/2012 ECMWF Workshop on Ocean Waves, 12/26
30 year hindcast
NH biases
Tolman, 6/25/2012 ECMWF Workshop on Ocean Waves, 13/26
30 year hindcast
NH SH
High wind speed issues with CFSR in SH
Tolman, 6/25/2012 ECMWF Workshop on Ocean Waves, 14/26
30 year hindcast
2008, Jason 1 2002, Envisat
Annual mean biases against altimeter data
Annual signal,After 2005
Persistent signalSeasonal (djf)
Tolman, 6/25/2012 ECMWF Workshop on Ocean Waves, 15/26
Code management
WAVEWATCH III community modeling
code management environment Traditionally code distributed as “tarball”, code delivered
back to NCEP the same way.
Does not work with many teams working on same code
Subversion (svn) server for version control.
Each team has code manager with access to server and latest developmental model versions thereon.
Code managers at NCEP merge individual contribution into “trunk” version of code.
Henrique, Arun, (Andre, Hendrik).
Best practices guide for community model development of WAVEWATCH III as deliverable for NOPP project. NCEP intends to maintain this environment after project is finished.
Tolman, 6/25/2012 ECMWF Workshop on Ocean Waves, 16/26
Outlook
WAVEWATCH III added capabilities: Curvilinear and unstructured grids.
Quasi-stationary model version.
New source terms.
GMD and nonlinear filter.
Two moveable bed bottom friction terms.
Ifremer physics packages.
Massively expanded output options (coupling).
Wave system tracking.
Post-processing tools:
Re-gridding.
NetCDF output.
Coupling interfaces:
ESMF.
PALM.
Tolman, 6/25/2012 ECMWF Workshop on Ocean Waves, 17/26
Snl in hurricanes
Wave height and relative error(%)
WRT G11d - WRT
G35d - WRTG13d - WRT
< 10%
≈ 20%
≈ -20%
< 15%
> 12m optimum DIA
5 x new quad3 x DIA
x
Tolman, 6/25/2012 ECMWF Workshop on Ocean Waves, 18/26
Snl in hurricanes
0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.250
15
30
45
60
f (Hz)
(f )
(o)
(e)
Spectral parameters 100km behind eye(minimal wave height errors)
green: WRT dashed green: G35d blue: G13d red G11d
spectrum (2D) spectrum (1D) steepness
Snldir. spreaddirection
Tolman (2011, 2013)
Tolman, 6/25/2012 ECMWF Workshop on Ocean Waves, 19/26
Hs HsTp Tp
Raw partitioned data Spatially tracked systems
raw partitioning wave system tracking
Wave system tracking
Van der Westhuysen, Hanson and Devaliere (2013)
Tolman, 6/25/2012 ECMWF Workshop on Ocean Waves, 20/26
Outlook
In the pipeline: Spatial and temporal tracking of wave fields:
Porting internal partitioning to SWAN.
Space-time tracking (external / internal).
NCEP planning first physics upgrade in operational wave models based on NOPP project in 2012 (following slides).
NCEP planning NOPP “consensus” upgrade in 2014/5.
Replacing DIA and other “deep” source terms.
New products for SOLAS, specifically wave breaking.
Full polar coverage (tri-polar / curvilinear Artic grid).
Unstructured coastal grids (2-3 km resolution)
Upgrades shelf physics.
Multiple well performing physics packages …
Multi-physics ensembles.
Estimate of uncertainty in wave model physics.
Tolman, 6/25/2012 ECMWF Workshop on Ocean Waves, 21/26
Outlook
NCEP physics upgrade based on Ifremer results, tested with NCEP global and Great Lakes winds.
old new
biases Dec. 2009 – Feb 2010
Tolman, 6/25/2012 ECMWF Workshop on Ocean Waves, 22/26
Outlook
Monthly global errors 2009
Tolman, 6/25/2012 ECMWF Workshop on Ocean Waves, 23/26
Outlook
01/05/09 01/06/09 01/07/09 01/08/09 01/09/09 01/10/09 01/11/090
1
2
3
4
Hs
(m)
Hs Total (m), Measurements vs. st2default
0 1 2 3 40
1
2
3
4
Measured Hs (m)
WW
3H
s(m
)
0 1 2 3 40
1
2
3
4
Measured Hs (m)
WW
3H
s(m
)
Great Lakes buoy 45007, 2009 old physics
Tolman, 6/25/2012 ECMWF Workshop on Ocean Waves, 24/26
01/05/09 01/06/09 01/07/09 01/08/09 01/09/09 01/10/09 01/11/090
1
2
3
4
Hs
(m)
Hs Total (m), Measurements vs. st4t500
0 1 2 3 40
1
2
3
4
Measured Hs (m)
WW
3H
s(m
)
0 1 2 3 40
1
2
3
4
Measured Hs (m)
WW
3H
s(m
)
Outlook
Great Lakes buoy 45007, 2009 new physics
Tolman, 6/25/2012 ECMWF Workshop on Ocean Waves, 25/26
Outlook
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
0
0.25
0.5
0.75
1
1.25
1
0.99
0.95
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.40.3
0.20.10
Sta
nd
ard
de
via
tio
n(n
orm
ali
zed
)
Co r r el a
ti o
n
Co
ef
fic
ie
nt
RM
S
D 0.2
0.4
0.6
00.25 00.5 00.75 01 01.25
3050
6070
80
90
95
99
Normalized STD m
/o
Co
rr e
l a
t i on
R MS D
Taylor diagram and alternative version for several GL buoys for 2009
GLERL-Donelan (1-G)WW III Tolman and Chalikov (1996)
WW III Ardhuin et al. (2010)
Tolman, 6/25/2012 ECMWF Workshop on Ocean Waves, 26/26
Conclusion
Conclusion: Making great progress toward improved operational models.
Laying ground work for community model development and modeling environment.
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