a global battery revolution - focus graphite inc....7gwh* $500m* nanjing, china lithium-ion 2015...

A global battery revolution How EVs & utilities can shape a new era in critical minerals & metals demand

Simon Moores, Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, UKBenchmarkMinerals.com / smoores@benchmarkminerals.com

What is Benchmark?

• Beta web site now live: benchmarkminerals.com

• Critical mineral and metals intelligence

• Providing high value data and analysis through consultancy services

• Q1 2015: Web site launch

Focus: Minerals and Metals that are driving the new hi-tech revolution and battery

economy

BenchmarkMinerals.comsmoores@benchmarkminerals.com

Four focal points of the company

Prices

Analysis

Forecasts

• Accurate, first hand market price data • Collected in-house, by Benchmark • Unique data sets detailing many grades

• Production data by country and company • Resource and Reserves data • Collected in-house by Benchmark from the market

• Expert, independent analysis• Supply, demand and price trends

• Short, medium and long term forecasts• Forecasts using proprietary data • Supply, demand and prices

1969 Late-1990s 2006 2007 2010

Watches

Cell phones

Laptops

Smartphones

Tablets

1969 Late-1990s 2006 2007 2010

Source: Benchmark Mineral Intelligence

Timeline: Battery commercialisation

1969 Late-1990s 2006 2007 2010

Watches Cars

Cell phones Power tools Personal music

SmartphonesTabletsLaptops Hybrid cars

1969-1990 Late-1990s 2006-2016 2017 onwards

Timeline: Battery commercialisation

Full Electric vehiclesUtility/Stationary storage

Lithium-ion / NiMH Lithium-ion

I II III IV

NiMH/Lithium-ionMercuryLead acid

BenchmarkMinerals.com

What is a battery made of?

Anode Separator Cathode

Carbon• Natural flake

(spherical)• Synthetic • Hard carbon• Soft carbon• MCMB

Lithium chemicalsNickelCadmium Phosphate Cobalt Manganese

And more

Polymer films

smoores@benchmarkminerals.com

The handheld revolution (2006-Present / Phase: III)

iPhone 6 & 6L

• 19g of natural spherical graphite*• 13g of lithium chemicals • Bigger battery • 30-50m units sold every Q• 10m iPhone 6 sold first weekend

• Birth of the mobile era, Pioneered by Apple

• 2001: iPod • 2007: iPhone• 2010: iPad • 2015: Watch

1. Introduction of a disruptive technology (2007)

2. Bigger batteries

Battery Size

Graphite

5.4Wh 6.9Wh 11.1Wh

9g 12g 19g

2012 2014 2014Source: Benchmark Mineral Intelligence

3. More mobile devices

More mobile devices

More mobile devices 2014

Samsung – small sized lithium-ion applications in 2014

Source: Samsung SDI

Electric vehiclesPhase: IV

Electric vehicles | The tipping point?

• Started in the wake of global financial crisis• Nissan LEAF, first true commercial-scale EV• Emergence of Tesla Motors • “The world’s most important automaker” –

Morgan Stanley, 2014

Nissan LEAF58%

Tesla Model S28%

Ford Focus BEV4%

Others10%

Tesla Model S | The iPhone affect?

The breakthrough to the mainstream?

Bigger batteries to predecessors

Technology designed around the battery

Raw material consumption in EVs

Tesla Motors: Graphite*

60-80kg

2008: Roadster

~100kg~130kg

2013: Model S (small) 2013: Model S (large)

Source: Benchmark Mineral Intelligence *Benchmark estimates

Nissan: Graphite

2010: LEAF

~60kg*~80kg*

2017: LEAF II 2017: LEAF II

Source: Benchmark Mineral Intelligence *Benchmark estimates / 2017 Images: Auto Express concept

Chevrolet: Graphite (Plug-in hybrid EV)

~25-27kg

2011: Volt

2015: Volt II 2017: LEAF II

Source: Benchmark Mineral Intelligence *Benchmark estimates / 2017 Images: Auto Express concept

Where will the batteries come from?

35GWh $5bn Nevada, USA Lithium-ion 2016

7GWh* $500m* Nanjing, China Lithium-ion 2015

15GWh* $810m* Anhui, China Lithium-ion 2016

*Benchmark Estimates, not disclosed by company

The Megafactories are coming

Gigafactory raw material demand (at capacity)

0%20%40%60%80%

100%120%140%160%

Flake graphite Lithium Cobalt

Battery grade increases on 2013 (%)

Utilities

Tesla Motors EV sales: past, present and future

Utilities

2003 2012

Utility storage: Drivers

• Security – Back up power • New York City: 2 x blackouts in under 10 years• Problems with the national grid

• Reducing the stress of peak load • Modernising the national grid to meet modern needs• Smoothing out the peaks and troughs

Utilities: battery size

Utilities: mainstream battery options

Lithium-ion • Leading technology • More supply on the market• More supply coming = megafactories• Graphite anode

Vanadium-flow • Better theoretical tech for longer duration• Not as abundant • Less developed than lithium-ion • Graphite anode

Utility: Demand Scenarios If you thought predicting EVs were hazardous, utility is a different ball game

2014 Navigant (2022) IHS (2024)

Grid connected battery storage: GWh

What is a battery made of?

• A collection of speciality minerals and metals• Not commodities • Commodities = off the shelf• Speciality minerals / metals = tailored

Anode Separator Cathode

Carbon• Natural flake

(spherical)• Synthetic • Hard carbon• Soft carbon• MCMB

Lithium chemicalsNickelCadmium Phosphate Cobalt Manganese

And more

Polymer films

Political will…

What services does Benchmark provide?

Sign up today free at

www.benchmarkminerals.com

Simon Moores: smoores@benchmarkminerals.comwww.benchmarkminerals.com

a global battery revolution - focus graphite inc....7gwh* $500m* nanjing, china lithium-ion 2015...

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