3g users and revenue
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U M T SF o r u m
www.www.umtsumts--forum.orgforum.org UMTS 2001 UMTS 2001
DRAFT
Realistically Forecasting 3G UsersRealistically Forecasting 3G Usersand Revenuesand Revenues
PaolaPaola TonelliTonelli
UMTS Forum Operators GroupUMTS Forum Operators Group
ChairpersonChairperson
UMTS 2001, Barcelona, 17 October, 2001UMTS 2001, Barcelona, 17 October, 2001
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U M T SF o r u m
22 UMTS 2001 UMTS 2001
The UMTS Forum has just updatedThe UMTS Forum has just updated
3G demand forecasts3G demand forecastsTo account for recent dramatic changesTo account for recent dramatic changes
!!General worldwide economic downturnGeneral worldwide economic downturn
!! Telecom sectorTelecom sector--specific downturnspecific downturn
!!Delays in delivery of new technologiesDelays in delivery of new technologies
!!Delays in operator trials and launch datesDelays in operator trials and launch dates
Some baseline assumptions were changed from the AprilSome baseline assumptions were changed from the Aprilanalysis based on market evidence and factanalysis based on market evidence and fact--basedbased
rationale onlyrationale only
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U M T SF o r u m
33 UMTS 2001 UMTS 2001
Original assumptionsOriginal assumptions
!! Growth in 3G subscribersGrowth in 3G subscribers validated against other forecasts byvalidated against other forecasts byreputed analystsreputed analysts
!! Worldwide 3G service subscriptionsWorldwide 3G service subscriptions determined using adoptiondetermined using adoption
rates, based on percentage of mobile subscribers with access torates, based on percentage of mobile subscribers with access to 3G3Gsystemssystems
!! Service revenue forecastsService revenue forecasts determined from known willingnessdetermined from known willingness--toto--paypayfor analog servicesfor analog services
!! No additional operatorNo additional operator--retained revenueretained revenue included for those servicesincluded for those servicesand applications users will expect as part of their future serviand applications users will expect as part of their future servicecepackagepackage
!!
Average worldwide pricingAverage worldwide pricing assumedassumed!! Significant price declinesSignificant price declines assumed over the forecast period for eachassumed over the forecast period for each
serviceservice
!! Country level service demandCountry level service demand determined considering current mobiledetermined considering current mobile
penetration levelspenetration levels and other economic, social and regulatory factorsand other economic, social and regulatory factors
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U M T S
F o r u m
44 UMTS 2001 UMTS 2001
Realistic forecast:Realistic forecast:3G subscribers example3G subscribers example
Worldwide 3G Subscribers
2009
493
1,100
-
500
1,000
1,500
UMTS Forum HSBC
Subscribers(M
)
Worldwide 3G Subscribers
2009
493
1,100
-
500
1,000
1,500
UMTS Forum HSBC
Subscribers(M
)
* Derived from HSBC Global Wireless, Q3 2001* Derived from HSBC Global Wireless, Q3 2001Source: UMTS Forum andSource: UMTS Forum and TelecompetitionTelecompetition Inc., August 2001Inc., August 2001
**
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U M T S
F o r u m
55 UMTS 2001 UMTS 2001
Changes to assumptionsChanges to assumptions
!! 3G adoption rate3G adoption rate lowered to account forlowered to account for
!!
Slower startSlower start
--up in early yearsup in early years
!!More gradual rampMore gradual ramp--up of countries new to 3G in laterup of countries new to 3G in later
yearsyears
!!Network availabilityNetwork availability dates moved outdates moved out
!! Worldwide 3G services demandWorldwide 3G services demand modified slightly tomodified slightly to
reflect technical and market complexity to offer somereflect technical and market complexity to offer some
of the servicesof the services!! Video component within Rich Voice and MultimediaVideo component within Rich Voice and Multimedia
MessagingMessaging
!!
Market for LocationMarket for Location--Based Services reduced slightlyBased Services reduced slightly
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U M T S
F o r u m
66 UMTS 2001 UMTS 2001
New results for 3G demandNew results for 3G demand
!! Worldwide 3G subscribers in 2010 will beWorldwide 3G subscribers in 2010 will be 28%28% of all mobile subscribersof all mobile subscribers
!! $320.5B$320.5B in revenues in 2010 (down from $322 billion)in revenues in 2010 (down from $322 billion)
!!Cumulative revenues of aboutCumulative revenues of about $1T$1T from 2002 until 2010 (down less thanfrom 2002 until 2010 (down less than1%)1%)
!! IIn 2010 the average 3G subscriber will generate aboutn 2010 the average 3G subscriber will generate about $30$30 per monthper monthon 3G data serviceson 3G data services
!! NonNon--voice service revenues will dominate voice revenues by 2004 andvoice service revenues will dominate voice revenues by 2004 andcomprisecomprise 66%66% of 3G service revenues by 2010of 3G service revenues by 2010
!! Asia Pacific represents the single largest total revenue opportuAsia Pacific represents the single largest total revenue opportunitynity approachingapproaching $120B$120B in 2010in 2010
!! Europe and North America will provide the highest annual revenueEurope and North America will provide the highest annual revenue perperPOPPOP..
The key change is the slower uptake in early years, due toThe key change is the slower uptake in early years, due to
supply constraints, but the pentsupply constraints, but the pent--up demand is still there!up demand is still there!
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U M T S
F o r u m
77 UMTS 2001 UMTS 2001
The 3G advantageThe 3G advantage
!! Even though 3G services will beEven though 3G services will be an evolution ofan evolution ofcurrent services, users perceptioncurrent services, users perception will changewill change
!! AlwaysAlways--onon
!! PersonalisedPersonalised
!!Location awareLocation aware
!! RealReal--time and flexibletime and flexible
!! Easier, better and fasterEasier, better and faster
Users will see a radical and fundamental changeUsers will see a radical and fundamental changein the way they experience servicesin the way they experience services
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U M T S
F o r u m
88 UMTS 2001 UMTS 2001
The 3G advantage (2)The 3G advantage (2)
This is because 3G will take full advantage of IP solutions andThis is because 3G will take full advantage of IP solutions andhigher network capacityhigher network capacity
!! IP transport in access and core networksIP transport in access and core networks
!! Separation of control and transport functionalitiesSeparation of control and transport functionalities
!! QoSQoS mechanisms and architecturesmechanisms and architectures
!! IP Multimedia Subsystem (IMS) to enable provision of IP multimedIP Multimedia Subsystem (IMS) to enable provision of IP multimediaia
services to mobile devicesservices to mobile devices
The users will seeThe users will see
!! Greater range ofGreater range of enriched multimedia servicesenriched multimedia services
!! Fixed Internet services will be easily and quickly adapted to moFixed Internet services will be easily and quickly adapted to mobilebile
!! Higher data ratesHigher data rates for a greater number of usersfor a greater number of users
!! Lower costsLower costs in the long term because of network efficienciesin the long term because of network efficiencies
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U M T S
F o r u m
99 UMTS 2001 UMTS 2001
Service categoriesService categories
VOICEVOICE
CONTENTCONTENTCONNECTIVITYCONNECTIVITY
(Internet)(Internet)
MOBILITYMOBILITY
PERSONALPERSONALPEOPLEPEOPLE
CONNECTIVITYCONNECTIVITYLOCATIONLOCATION
Direct LinkDirect Link
to a Personto a PersonAlways on,Always on,
IPIP--basedbasedKnowledgeKnowledge
of Locationof Location
RichRich
Voice andVoice and
SimpleSimpleVoiceVoice
MobileMobile
InternetInternet
AccessAccess
MobileMobile
Intranet/Intranet/
ExtranetExtranetAccessAccess
CustomisedCustomised
InfotainmentInfotainment
MultimediaMultimedia
MessagingMessaging
ServiceService
LocationLocation
--basedbased
ServicesServices
INFORMATION AND CONTENT (NonINFORMATION AND CONTENT (Non--Voice)Voice)
Source:Source: TelecompetitionTelecompetition,Inc August 2000,Inc August 2000
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U M T S
F o r u m
1010 UMTS 2001 UMTS 2001
Business modelsBusiness models
Mobile Specialised ServicesMobile Specialised Services
VoiceVoiceInformation andInformation and ccontentontent
((nnonon--vvoiceoice))
CONTENT CONNECTIVITYCONTENT CONNECTIVITY
(Internet)(Internet)MOBILITYMOBILITY
MobileMobileInternetInternet
AccessAccess
MobileMobile
Intranet/Intranet/
ExtranetExtranet
AccessAccess
PortalPortal
FocusedFocused
ApproachApproach
CustomisedCustomised
InfotainmentInfotainment
MultimediaMultimedia
MessagingMessaging
ServiceService
(MMS)(MMS)
LocationLocation--
BasedBased
ServicesServices
RichRich
VoiceVoice
andandSimpleSimple
VoiceVoice
Access Focused ApproachAccess Focused Approach
Source:Source: TelecompetitionTelecompetition,Inc August 2000,Inc August 2000
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U M T S
F o r u m
1111 UMTS 2001 UMTS 2001
LLongong--term revenue growthterm revenue growth to 2010to 2010
Source: UMTS Forum andSource: UMTS Forum and TelecompetitionTelecompetition Inc., August 2001Inc., August 2001
Worldwide Revenues - All Services
$-
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
S
erviceRevenues($M)
Simple Voice
Rich Voice
Location-Based Services
Mobile Internet Access
Multimedia Messaging Service
Mobile Intranet/Extranet Access
Customised Infotainment
Worldwide Revenues - All Services
$-
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
ServiceReven
ues($M)
Simple Voice
Rich Voice
Location-Based Services
Mobile Internet Access
Multimedia Messaging Service
Mobile Intranet/Extranet Access
Customised Infotainment
Worldwide Revenues - All Services
$-
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
ServiceReven
ues($M)
Simple Voice
Rich Voice
Location-Based Services
Mobile Internet Access
Multimedia Messaging Service
Mobile Intranet/Extranet Access
Customised Infotainment
Worldwide Revenues - All Services
$-
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
ServiceReven
ues($M)
Simple Voice
Rich Voice
Location-Based Services
Mobile Internet Access
Multimedia Messaging Service
Mobile Intranet/Extranet Access
Customised Infotainment
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U M T S
F o r u m
1212 UMTS 2001 UMTS 2001
LongLong--term revenue opportunities forterm revenue opportunities for
operatorsoperators!!CustomisedCustomised InfotainmentInfotainment will be the largestwill be the largest
revenue opportunity for the consumer segmentrevenue opportunity for the consumer segment
!!Mobile Intranet/Extranet AccessMobile Intranet/Extranet Access is the largestis the largest
revenue opportunity for the corporate sectorrevenue opportunity for the corporate sector
!!MMSMMS is the second largest revenue opportunityis the second largest revenue opportunityfor the business sectorfor the business sector::
!!Managed corporate services will serve to retainManaged corporate services will serve to retain
customers, but will not be a significant revenuecustomers, but will not be a significant revenuestreamstream
!!LocationLocation--based services may not be a significantbased services may not be a significantrevenue opportunity for operatorsrevenue opportunity for operators
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U M T S
F o r u m
1313 UMTS 2001 UMTS 2001
LongLong--term revenue opportunities forterm revenue opportunities for
operatorsoperators (cont(cont''d)d)
!!For both sectorsFor both sectors ""simplesimple"" voice will remain a vitalvoice will remain a vital
component of operators service portfoliocomponent of operators service portfolio::
!! In 2010 subscribers using a 3G device willIn 2010 subscribers using a 3G device will
generate almost $88B revenues from simple voicegenerate almost $88B revenues from simple voiceservices, compared to $233B for all other servicesservices, compared to $233B for all other services
!!From now to 2010 3G services will generateFrom now to 2010 3G services will generate
around onearound one trillion dollarstrillion dollars of additional revenue forof additional revenue foroperators aloneoperators alone
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U M T S
F o r u m
1414 UMTS 2001 UMTS 2001
Revenues by segmentRevenues by segmentWorldwide 3G Revenues - Consumer and Business
(excluding Simple Voice)
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Revenu
es($M)
Business
Consumer
Source: UMTS Forum andSource: UMTS Forum and TelecompetitionTelecompetition Inc., August 2001Inc., August 2001
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U M T S
F o r u m
1515 UMTS 2001 UMTS 2001
Revenues:Revenues: ddataata and voiceand voice
Worldwide 3G Revenues - Data and Voice
(including Simple Voice)
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Revenues($M)
Data
Voice
Worldwide 3G Revenues - Data and Voice
(including Simple Voice)
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Revenues($M)
Data
Voice
Source: UMTS Forum andSource: UMTS Forum and TelecompetitionTelecompetition Inc., August 2001Inc., August 2001
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U M T S
F o r u m
1616 UMTS 2001 UMTS 2001
Revenues by revenue typeRevenues by revenue type
Worldwide 3G Revenues by Revenue Type
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Revenues($M)
Messages, Airtime, and Subscriptions
Advertising
Transactions
Worldwide 3G Revenues by Revenue Type
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Revenues($M)
Messages, Airtime, and Subscriptions
Advertising
Transactions
Includes Operator Retained Revenue Only.Includes Operator Retained Revenue Only.
Source: UMTS Forum andSource: UMTS Forum and TelecompetitionTelecompetition Inc., August 2001Inc., August 2001
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U M T S
F o r u m
1717 UMTS 2001 UMTS 2001
Revenue comparison by service byRevenue comparison by service by
regionregion 20102010
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
ServicesRevenue($M)
Customised Infotainment $42,636 $29,256 $5,994 $7,894
Mobile Intranet/Extranet Access $16,778 $17,175 $20,950 $5,759
Consumer MMS $6,681 $6,420 $2,849 $1,866
Mobile Internet Access $3,509 $4,008 $4,219 $2,418
Business MMS $8,170 $8,344 $4,434 $2,789
Location-Based Services $2,336 $3,252 $3,659 $372
Rich Voice $4,802 $7,134 $8,011 $886
Simple Voice $33,628 $27,386 $17,977 $8,851
Asia Pacific Europe North America Rest of World$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
Serv
icesRevenue($
M)
Customised Infotainment $42,636 $29,256 $5,994 $7,894
Mobile Intranet/Extranet Access $16,778 $17,175 $20,950 $5,759
Consumer MMS $6,681 $6,420 $2,849 $1,866
Mobile Internet Access $3,509 $4,008 $4,219 $2,418
Business MMS $8,170 $8,344 $4,434 $2,789
Location-Based Services $2,336 $3,252 $3,659 $372
Rich Voice $4,802 $7,134 $8,011 $886
Simple Voice $33,628 $27,386 $17,977 $8,851
Asia Pacific Europe North America Rest of World
Source: UMTS Forum andSource: UMTS Forum and TelecompetitionTelecompetition Inc., August 2001Inc., August 2001
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U M T S
F o r u m
1818 UMTS 2001 UMTS 2001
ARPU trendsARPU trends
!!The introduction of new services on 2G networks isThe introduction of new services on 2G networks is
beginning to contribute to ARPUbeginning to contribute to ARPU stabilisationstabilisation byby
!! Gaining new customersGaining new customers
!! Generating incremental revenue growthGenerating incremental revenue growth
!! Providing additional revenue liftProviding additional revenue lift
!!The introduction of 3G will accelerate this trendThe introduction of 3G will accelerate this trend
!! Voice minutes will continue migrating from fixed to mobileVoice minutes will continue migrating from fixed to mobile
!! NonNon--voice services will provide the longvoice services will provide the long--term growthterm growth
!! Complemented by alternative technologiesComplemented by alternative technologies
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U M T S
F o r u m
1919 UMTS 2001 UMTS 2001
Impact of 3G on ARPU levelsImpact of 3G on ARPU levels3G Deployment Scenario Analysis(3G share of global mobile subscribers)(3G share of global mobile subscribers)
$0
$20
$40
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
WorldwideARP
UperMonth
($)
Voice Only - no 3G
(All Cellular)
28% 3G share(Report Forecast)
50% 3G share
70% 3G share
Source: UMTS Forum andSource: UMTS Forum and TelecompetitionTelecompetition Inc., August 2001Inc., August 2001
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U M T S
F o r u m
2020 UMTS 2001 UMTS 2001
3G incremental revenues3G incremental revenues
3G Revenue per 3G Subscriber
(excludes Simple Voice)
$39
$45$44
$39
$34
$32 $32 $32 $31
$0
$20
$40
$60
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Revenues($p
erMonth)
3G Revenue per 3G Subscriber
(excludes Simple Voice)
$39
$45$44
$39
$34
$32 $32 $32 $31
$0
$20
$40
$60
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Revenues($perMonth)
Source: UMTS Forum andSource: UMTS Forum and TelecompetitionTelecompetition Inc., August 2001Inc., August 2001
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U M T S
F o r u m
2121 UMTS 2001 UMTS 2001
Challenges for 3G operatorsChallenges for 3G operators
!!New business modelsNew business models
!! The business models which operators and their partners chooseThe business models which operators and their partners choose
will have a high impact on operator retained revenue streamswill have a high impact on operator retained revenue streams
!! Business models may vary by serviceBusiness models may vary by service
!!New operator rolesNew operator roles
!! Shift from a simple voiceShift from a simple voice--only, direct relationship with the user toonly, direct relationship with the user toan increasingly complex onean increasingly complex one
!! A portfolio of servicesA portfolio of services
!!
Multiple partners and revenue sharingMultiple partners and revenue sharing!! Increased competition with third parties also targeting the endIncreased competition with third parties also targeting the end--useruser
!! Shift to becoming a system integratorShift to becoming a system integrator
!! Coordination of the complete value chainCoordination of the complete value chain
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U M T S
F o r u m
2222 UMTS 2001 UMTS 2001
Challenges for 3G operators (2)Challenges for 3G operators (2)
!!Integration of Internet and mobileIntegration of Internet and mobile
!!At the device levelAt the device level
!!At the service levelAt the service level
!!
At the transport levelAt the transport level
Bringing together two different worlds to come up withBringing together two different worlds to come up withservices that the users will want to pay for!services that the users will want to pay for!
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U M T S
F o r u m
2323 UMTS 2001 UMTS 2001
Business modelsBusiness models
Mobile Specialised ServicesMobile Specialised Services
VoiceVoiceInformation andInformation and ccontentontent
((nnonon--vvoiceoice))
CONTENT CONNECTIVITYCONTENT CONNECTIVITY(Internet)(Internet)
MOBILITYMOBILITY
MobileMobile
InternetInternetAccessAccess
MobileMobile
Intranet/Intranet/
ExtranetExtranet
AccessAccess
PortalPortalFocusedFocused
ApproachApproach
CustomisedCustomised
InfotainmentInfotainment
MultimediaMultimedia
MessagingMessaging
ServiceService
(MMS)(MMS)
LocationLocation--
BasedBasedServicesServices
RichRich
VoiceVoice
andandSimpleSimple
VoiceVoice
Access Focused ApproachAccess Focused Approach
Source:Source: TelecompetitionTelecompetition,Inc August 2000,Inc August 2000
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U M T S
F o r u m
2424 UMTS 2001 UMTS 2001
Business Models: Example 1Business Models: Example 1
Sources: The UMTS Forum andSources: The UMTS Forum and TelecompetitionTelecompetition Inc., September 2000Inc., September 2000
User ProfileUser Profile
CorporateCorporateportalsportals
NetworkS
ecurityFirewall
NetworkS
ecurityFirewall
BusinessBusiness
segmentsegment
SubscriberSubscriber
profilesprofiles
CustomersCustomers
MobileMobile iintranetntranet//extranet accessextranet access
BusinessBusiness mmodelodel: Access: Access ffocusedocused aapproachpproach
Billing forBilling for
air timeair time
Opportunities forOpportunities for
new servicesnew services
ISP orISP or
corporatecorporate
profileprofile
3G operators3G operators
ConnectivityConnectivity
ISPsISPs
RoamingRoaming
partnerspartners
Fixed lineFixed lineoperatorsoperators
33rdrd partiesparties
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U M T S
F o r u m
2525 UMTS 2001 UMTS 2001
Business Models: ExampleBusiness Models: Example 22
Customized infotainmentCustomized infotainment
BusinessBusiness mmodelodel: Portal: Portal ffocusedocused aapproachpproach
Sources: The UMTS Forum andSources: The UMTS Forum and TelecompetitionTelecompetition Inc., September 2000Inc., September 2000
User ProfileUser Profile
CustomersCustomers
Billing forBilling for
serviceservice
Revenue sharingRevenue sharing
ConsumerConsumer
ssegmentegment
3G operators3G operators
MobileMobile
portalportal
CustomerCustomer
profileprofile
Affinity partnerAffinity partneror supplieror supplier
33rdrd partiesparties
ISPsISPs
BanksBanks
EntertainmentEntertainment
Etc.Etc.
MobileMobile
contentcontent
portalportal
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U M T S
F o r u m
2626 UMTS 2001 UMTS 2001
ConclusionsConclusions
!! Prospects for 3G are very encouragingProspects for 3G are very encouraging
!! Supply and technology constraints will only slow down the uptakeSupply and technology constraints will only slow down the uptake in thein theearly yearsearly years
!! The demand is still thereThe demand is still there!! Over the long term, only 3G will be able to generate aOver the long term, only 3G will be able to generate a massmass
market for multimedia servicesmarket for multimedia services
!! Simple voice will remain a key source of revenueSimple voice will remain a key source of revenue
!! 3G data services will provide additional revenue lift and3G data services will provide additional revenue lift andincremental revenue growthincremental revenue growth
!! 3G will generate3G will generate significant longsignificant long--term revenue opportunitiesterm revenue opportunities forforoperators as well as for other players in the value chainoperators as well as for other players in the value chain
!! The biggest challenges will beThe biggest challenges will be
!! Shift from a oneShift from a one--service mindservice mind--set to a portfolio of services, new businessset to a portfolio of services, new businessmodels, multiple partnerships and complex relationshipsmodels, multiple partnerships and complex relationships
!!
Integration of Internet and mobile.Integration of Internet and mobile.
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U M T S
F o r u m
www.www.umtsumts--forum.orgforum.org UMTS 2001 UMTS 2001
DRAFT
The UMTS Forum has presentedThe UMTS Forum has presenteda realistic forecasta realistic forecastof 3G users and revenuesof 3G users and revenues
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