2.6 - greater hobart urban travel demand model
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Greater Hobart Urban Travel Demand Model
Oliver Charlesworth
28 November 2011
Introduction
Hobart – Existing & Future Conditions
Pre-existing Models & Data
Cube Model Overview
Model Details:
- Trip Generation & Distribution
- Park & Ride Model
- Time Period Model
- Parking Supply & Demand Model
Model validation
GHUTDM Page 2December 15, 2011
Introduction
Hobart – Existing Conditions
- Population & Employment
- Road Network
- Public Transport
Hobart – Future Conditions
- Transport infrastructure (new roads, increased road capacity, light rail)
- Land use (e.g. new residential development)
- Demographics (changes in population & employment levels)
- Economic conditions (increased vehicle operating costs)
- PT service characteristics (improved frequencies, fare changes, etc>)
GHUTDM Page 3December 15, 2011
Pre-existing Models & Data
December 15, 2011 Page 4
Models:
Limited.
Data:
GIS Network Layer
Traffic Counts
Patronage Counts
Travel Times
The Greater Hobart Household Travel Survey 2008-2009
Census Data
GHUTDM
Cube Model Overview
GHUTDM Page 5December 15, 2011
Cube Model Structure
Page 6December 15, 2011
MODEL OUTPUTS
Generalised cost skims
Daily person trip ends
Daily P-A trips by purpose
AM, PM, OP O-D matrices by mode
Traffic/passenger flowsNetwork performanceGeneralised cost skims
Daily P-A trips by purpose and mode
Report
DATA INPUTS MODEL PROCESS
InitializationHwy & PT assignment
Initial network
External Model
Commercial Vehicle Model
Hwy & PT assignment by time period assignment
Demographic data
HH segmentationCar ownership modelTrip generation
Trip Production /
- Trip ends- Generalised costs- Gravity modelParameters by
- Daily P-A trips- Mode split factors by purpose & sector
Trip distribution
Mode choice
Time period model / CBD parking delay model
Blended cost skims
- Time period factors by purpose & sector- Vehicle occupancy factors by purpose
- Network development (zones, roads, etc)- Speed/flow curves (link costs, tolls)
ConvergenceYes
No
A
naly
se H
ouse
hold
Sur
vey
Dat
a
GHUTDM
Cube Model – Road Network
December 15, 2011 Page 7GHUTDM
Trip Production
Trip Attraction
Number of householdsPopulationNumber of workersDependants- Dependants (0-11)- Dependants (12-17)- Dependants (18-65)- Retirees (65+)
Enrolments categorised by:- Kindergarten/primary school enrolments- Secondary school enrolments- Tertiary institution enrolments which
include Universities and TAFE.Employment categorised by 5 types:- Education- Entertainment- Industry- Retail- Service
Model Details – Trip Generation
GHUTDM Page 8December 15, 2011
The trip generation model consists of the following sub-models:
- Household Stratification Model
- Car Ownership Model
- Trip Production Model
- Trip Attraction Model
Model Details – Trip Generation
GHUTDM Page 9December 15, 2011
The trip generation model consists of the following sub-models:
- Household Stratification Model
- Car Ownership Model
- Trip Production Model
- Trip Attraction Model
Household Stratification Model
- Workers per Household: 0 to 3+ workers
- Dependants per Household: 0 to 3+ dependants
- Cars per Household: 0 to 2+ cars
Model Details – Trip Generation
GHUTDM Page 10December 15, 2011
The trip generation model consists of the following sub-models:
- Household Stratification Model
- Car Ownership Model
- Trip Production Model
- Trip Attraction Model
Car Ownership Model
Linear regression to estimate the average number of cars per household as a function of:
- Number of workers
- Number of dependants
- Accessibility to employment by public transport (via assignment ) [Iterative]
Model Details – Trip Generation
GHUTDM Page 11December 15, 2011
The trip generation model consists of the following sub-models:
- Household Stratification Model
- Car Ownership Model
- Trip Production Model
- Trip Attraction Model
Trip Production Model
Trip Production = Trip rate per household category X No. of households at each category
Trip rates = No. person trips / No. households
8 home based trip purposes x 3 car ownership levels (0, 1, 2+ cars) + 2 non-home based trip purposes= 26 travel market segments
Model Details – Trip Generation
GHUTDM Page 12December 15, 2011
The trip generation model consists of the following sub-models:
- Household Stratification Model
- Car Ownership Model
- Trip Production Model
- Trip Attraction Model
Trip Attraction Model
Attraction Variable data: employment by type and educational enrolments for each zone
Model Details – Trip Generation
GHUTDM Page 13December 15, 2011
Model Details – Trip Distribution
Distribute Motorised & Non-Motorised person trips
Gravity Model:
- Extract observed OD matrices by purpose from the Greater Hobart Household Travel Survey (GHHTS)
- Assign observed matrices and skim daily generalised costs, blended by mode (public and private transport) and time periods for each purpose [Iterative]
- Use the MVGRAM module: input of observed OD matrices and generalised cost by purpose, to estimate parameters and .
- Check the trip length distribution.
GHUTDM Page 14December 15, 2011
Model Details – Park & Ride
P&R model includes three components:
- network development
- mode choice and
- public transport assignment
Additional delay could be included
In time period model, the P&R demand is further split into a production-attraction direction (such as home to work) and an attraction-production direction (such as work to home)
GHUTDM Page 15December 15, 2011
Railway Station
Park and Ride Site
Bus Stop
Road
Road with Bus Route
Railway Line Zone Centroid
LT 18
LT 16
LT 18
LT 12
LT 12
LT 12
LT 42
LT 40
LT 40
LT 40
LT 99
Gate
LT 41
Road
Road with Bus Route
LT 99
Bus Stop
Model Details – Time Period
Greater Hobart Household Travel Survey used to derive production to attraction factors and attraction to production factors for each trip (applied to daily)
More accurate representation of asymmetrical travel patterns
Split into each time period using the time period factors derived using information from the Greater Hobart Household Travel Survey (GHHTS).
GHUTDM Page 16December 15, 2011
Trip Purpose
Production to Attraction Factor
Attraction to Production Factor
HBW 0.529 0.471
HBEP 0.553 0.447
HBES 0.545 0.456
HBET 0.534 0.466
HBSh 0.482 0.518
HBR 0.484 0.516
HBV 0.462 0.538
HBO 0.472 0.528
NHBO 0.500 0.500
NHBW 0.500 0.5000
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
% o
f Dai
ly M
otor
ised
Trip
s
Starting Hour of Trip
Model Details – Parking Supply & Demand
Parking charges were incorporated into generalised cost of private travel
The parking delay was capped at 35 minutes
Parking supply specified at larger sector level (not zonal)
GHUTDM Page 17December 15, 2011
Model Validation – Comparison of Trip Generation
December 15, 2011 Page 18
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
Modelled
HTS
Comparison of Trip Production (Daily Person Trips)
GHUTDM
Model Validation – Comparison of Trip Distribution
December 15, 2011 Page 19
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
Ave
rage
Trip
Len
gth
(km
)
Travel Market Segments
ObservedModelled
Comparison between modelled and observed average trip length
GHUTDM
Model Validation – Comparison of Mode Choice
December 15, 2011GHUTDM Page 20
Comparison between modelled and observed mode share by purpose
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
HBW HBEP HBES HBET HBS HBR HBV HBO NHBO NHBW Total
Car Modelled
Car Observed
PT Modelled
PT Observed
Cycle Modelled
Cycle Observed
Walk Modelled
Walk Observed
Model Validation – Assignment Comparison of Highway Volumes
December 15, 2011 Page 21
y = 0.93xR² = 0.96
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000
One
-way
traf
fic v
olum
e (m
odel
led)
One-way traffic volume (observed)
Observed and modelled daily traffic volumes (cars only) for all sites
GHUTDM
Model Validation – Assignment Comparison of PT Boardings
December 15, 2011 Page 22
Observed and modelled daily bus boardings by corridory = 1.08xR² = 0.98
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
- 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000
One
-way
boa
rdin
gs b
y co
rrid
or (m
odel
led)
One-way boardings by corridor (observed)
GHUTDM
Thank You
oliver.charlesworth@aecom.com
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