2040 socioeconomic study - vlmpo presentation

Valdosta-Lowndes MPO2040

Socioeconomic Data StudyVLMPO Policy Committee

October 29, 2013

Agenda

• Why?• What?• How?• Results!

Why do you need socioeconomic data?

• The need for transportation improvements • People and jobs create trips• How many?• When?• Where from?• Where to?

• Federal funding• Federal requirements• GDOT regulations

What kind of data?

• Population and employment• Base and existing year data• 2010 base year • Today’s updates

• 2040 horizon year projections• Interim year projections

Planning Data

Transportation• Population and households• Income

• Employment• Service• Retail• Manufacturing• Wholesale

• Student enrollment

Comprehensive planning• Housing• Gender• Age• Race• Educational attainment• Labor force

Required for model

How? LRTP Data and Projection Process

• Base year data• Determine horizon year

control totals• Distribute growth to zones• Traffic analysis zones or TAZs

• Verify and revise• Develop interim year data

Various Population Projections

Horizon Year Population – Lowndes County

Horizon Year Population – Model Area2010 Travel Demand Model Area Population 110,7802040 Travel Demand Model Area Population 154,82040% increase in thirty years

Major Assumptions

• Household and employment growth follow population growth trend• Ratio of jobs to housing in region• Kinds of jobs in region• Service• Retail• Manufacturing• Wholesale

• Growth Areas• Densities• Dwelling units per acre• Jobs per acre

Horizon Year Targets (2040)

County-

wide Population

Travel Demand Model (TDM) Area Variables

TDM Populat

ion

TDM Employment

Manufacturing Employment

Service Employment

Retail Employment

Wholesale

Employment

TDM Househ

olds

Lowndes 149,288 146,302 76,082 5,057 50,025 19,634 1,366 59,472

Berrien 24,514 841 1 0 1 0 0 342

Brooks 17,644 3,720 65 3 44 2 16 1,512

Lanier 13,868 3,959 5 0 1 4 0 1,609

Total 205,314 154,822 76,153 5,060 50,071 19,640 1,382 62,936

VLMPO Travel Demand Model (TDM) Area

TDM Populatio

n

TDM Househol

ds

TDM Total

Employment

Manufacturing

Employment

Service Employm

ent

Retail Employm

ent

Wholesale

Employment

2010 110,780 45,040 54,340 3,610 35,730 14,010 990

2040 154,820 62,940 76,150 5,060 50,070 19,640 1,380

Households and employment follow population growth trend in the region

Developable land by Growth Area

and other parameters

Future population and employment

distributed to zones

Land already developed -or- not suitable for development

Land suitable for development

A

B

D

C

Distribute Growth to Zones

A. Growth Areas within zone boundary

B. Suitable and available for development

C. Developable acres within each Growth Area are assigned jobs or housing

D. Developable acres with access to water or sewer service may be assigned jobs or housing

Population 2010

Population Density 2010

Population Density 2040

Employment Density 2010

Employment Density 2040

Findings

• Identified Growth Areas will accommodate most growth by 2040• Some households assigned to areas zoned residential with existing access to

water or sewer service• Service jobs assigned to areas with existing access to water or sewer service

based on zoning

• Industrial Growth Areas contain more land than will be needed by 2040 for projected manufacturing and wholesale jobs

Recommendations

• Consistent Census boundaries and traffic analysis zone boundaries• Update Census boundaries to reflect real life conditions if applicable• Adjust zone boundaries as needed

• Evaluate Growth Areas during plan update(s)• Evaluate land use scenarios with VLMPO travel demand model• Evaluate policies and development patterns through comprehensive planning

process

• Continue coordination with MAFB and other major employers

Thank youCorey Hull, AICP229-333-5277chull@sgrc.us

Whitney Shephard, PE, LEED AP912-677-0430

whitney@transportstudio.net