2020 fraser river sockeye pre-season run size … fraser sk...2020 fraser river sockeye pre-season...

2020 Fraser River Sockeye Pre-season Run Size Forecast

with Supplemental Information

Les Jantz on behalf of Yi Xu & Mike Hawkshaw

FORUM Meeting March 10, 2020

Acknowledgements

• Data Contributors – Fisheries Data: Brian Leaf, Scott Decker, Tracy Cone,

Steve Latham, Lucas Pon, Dan Selbie, Jennifer Sandher, Paul Welch, Ryan Galbraith, Doug Lofthouse

– Env Data: David Patterson, Peter Chandler, Roy Hourston, Lu Guan, Michael Malick

• Model Contributors – Catherine Michielsens, Gottfried

Pestal, Bronwyn MacDonald,

Sue Grant, Les Jantz

Outline

• 2020 Forecast Supplement

• Data Updates

• Method Updates

• Results

• Discussion

• Next Steps

Outline Data Method Results Discussion Next Steps

4

2020 Forecast Supplement

B. MacDonald & S. Grant, State of the Salmon Program, PST Feb 18 2020

Photo: S. Kalyn, 4 Element Photos

5

Marine

2 Winters Freshwater

2 Winters May-June 2018

April-May 2018

Brood Year

July-Oct 2016

July-Oct 2020

April-May 2017

First Winter 2019

Second Winter 2020

June-October 2018

Most Fraser Sockeye Mature as Four Year Olds

Return: 4 yrs

Grant & MacDonald: Fraser Sockeye Science Integration 2018, Fraser Panel Feb 2018

2020 Life-History

6

2020 Results

B. MacDonald & S. Grant, State of the Salmon Program, PST Feb 13 2019

7

Migration & Spawning 2016

Neutral

B. MacDonald & S. Grant, State of the Salmon Program, PST Feb 13 2019

Adult Migration Conditions: Lower Fraser River Discharge

8

Low discharge during mainstem migration

Run-timing bars depict 2016 Mission passage with grey lines indicating run-timing group 50% dates

Data Sources: Water Survey of Canada; Pacific Salmon Commission Macdonald 2000; Patterson 2004; Braun et al. 2013

Discharge unlikely to be an issue in 2016

Adult Migration Conditions: 2016 Fraser River Discharge for Early Stuart

9

Early Stuart delay or obstruction due to high flows at Hell’s Gate not a concern in 2016

* Red indicates migration problems, yellow bars indicate potential concern, and green bars indicate no concern

Data Sources: Water Survey of Canada, Pacific Salmon Commission

Adult Migration Conditions: 2016 Fraser River Temperature for Chilko

10

High proportion of Chilko fish experienced warm temps in the

lower Fraser

Daily abundance based on Mission passage estimates

Data Sources: Water Survey of Canada, Pacific Salmon Commission, DFO Environmental Watch

11

Migration & Spawning 2016

Neutral

B. MacDonald & S. Grant, State of the Salmon Program, PST Feb 13 2019

• Neutral discharge

• Warmer temps but no indicators in

juvenile stages

• average water temps on spawning

grounds; good fish condition reported

12

Juvenile Freshwater 2017-2018

Neutral

B. MacDonald & S. Grant, State of the Salmon Program, PST Feb 13 2019

Seasonal Air Temperature Anomalies: Incubation

13 Varied: May warm varied cool

Data Source: Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium

Egg Hatch Fry Emergence Alevin

Fall 2016 Winter 2017 Spring 2017

Egg

Seasonal Air Temperature Anomalies: Fry Rearing

14 varied warm

Data Source: Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium

Fry D/S Littoral Zone Summer to Fall Fry – Limnetic Zone

Spring 2017 Summer 2017 Fall 2017

Varied: May warm

Incubation Conditions: Nadina

15

Data Source: Water Survey of Canada (1975-2016)

16

Juvenile Freshwater 2017-2018

Neutral

B. MacDonald & S. Grant, State of the Salmon Program, PST Feb 13 2019

• Normal freshet

• Generally cooler

• Longer growing season in 2017

• Uncertain impacts of forest fires

• Fry production average in systems

assessed (except Cultus)

17

Smolt Outmigration 2018

Neutral

B. MacDonald & S. Grant, State of the Salmon Program, PST Feb 13 2019

18

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug

Dis

cha

rge (

m3/s

)

B. MacDonald & S. Grant, State of the Salmon Program, PST Feb 13 2019

D. Patterson & K. Robinson, E-Watch

May 2018 Max Air Temp

Anomalies

19

Smolt Size at Mission

B. MacDonald & S. Grant, State of the Salmon Program, PST Feb 18 2020

20

Smolt Outmigration 2018

Neutral

B. MacDonald & S. Grant, State of the Salmon Program, PST Feb 13 2019

• Normal freshet

• Average smolt body sizes at Mission

• Outmigration timing average

21

Juveniles Marine 2018-2020

Negative

B. MacDonald & S. Grant, State of the Salmon Program, PST Feb 18 2020

Lighthouse Temperatures (Chandler)

2018 = continuation of warm period long-term increasing temperature trend

2014-2016: Marine heat wave; surface and/or subsurface temperatures above normal (relative to 1981-2010 average)

2017: SST ~average, subsurface temperatures (>100 m) anomalously warm 2018: surface/subsurface temperatures near normal until fall, when marine heat

waves observed offshore and on shelf with varying spatial and temporal scales

Temperature Anomalies, Line P (Ross and Robert)

2018 (Sep-Dec)

24

“The Blob”

Indicator of El Niño

Deviations from seasonal average

Reference Period: 1981-2010

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Image provided by the NOAA/ESRL Physical Sciences Division, Boulder

Colorado from their Web site at http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/ B. MacDonald & S. Grant, State of the Salmon Program, PST Feb 18 2020

2019 (Aug-Sep)

25

“The Blob”

Indicator of El Niño

Deviations from seasonal average

Reference Period: 1981-2010

war

me

r co

ole

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Image provided by the NOAA/ESRL Physical Sciences Division, Boulder

Colorado from their Web site at http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/

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B. MacDonald & S. Grant, State of the Salmon Program, PST Feb 18 2020

2019 (December)

26

“The Blob”

Indicator of El Niño

Deviations from seasonal average

Reference Period: 1981-2010

war

me

r co

ole

r

Image provided by the NOAA/ESRL Physical Sciences Division, Boulder

Colorado from their Web site at http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/

Image p

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B. MacDonald & S. Grant, State of the Salmon Program, PST Feb 18 2020

2020 (January)

27

“The Blob”

Indicator of El Niño

Deviations from seasonal average

Reference Period: 1981-2010

war

me

r co

ole

r

Image provided by the NOAA/ESRL Physical Sciences Division, Boulder

Colorado from their Web site at http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/

Image p

rovid

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OA

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SR

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B. MacDonald & S. Grant, State of the Salmon Program, PST Feb 18 2020

CPUE of sockeye salmon in Strait of Georgia 1998-2019

- CPUE for juveniles in 2018 (2020) return was greater than the previous 4 returns for this cycle.

- Size of juveniles above average. Condition was average.

B. MacDonald & S. Grant, State of the Salmon Program, PST Feb 18 2020

29

Juveniles Marine 2018-2020

Negative

• Marine heatwaves continued

• Poorer quality northern zooplankton

dominates

B. MacDonald & S. Grant, State of the Salmon Program, PST Feb 18 2020

30

2020 Results

B. MacDonald & S. Grant, State of the Salmon Program, PST Feb 18 2020

Fraser Sockeye Analytical Program: M. Hawkshaw & Yi Xu

Environmental Watch Program: D. Patterson/K. Robinson/S. Healey

Lakes Research Program: D. Selbie/L. Pon

Mission Smolt Program: J. Tadey

Strait of Georgia Salmon Program: C. Neville

Coastal Salmon: J. King

Ocean Conditions: J. Boldt

31

State of the Salmon Program (SOS): S. Grant/B. MacDonald

Fraser Sockeye Operational Program: S. Decker & B. Leaf (incorporates

information from various First Nation and DFO groups)

Stock ID: S. Latham

Chief Biologist: C. Michielsens

Fraser Sockeye Science Integration Across Salmon Life-History Stages In prep for DFO Technical Report 2019

B. MacDonald & S. Grant, State of the Salmon Program, PST Feb 18 2020

2020 Forecast Data Updates 2019 Forecast 2020 Forecast

Fisheries Data (Brood Year)

Effective Female Spawners 1948-2015 1948-2016

Juveniles 1948-2015 1948-2016

Recruitment 1948-2011 1948-2015

Environmental Data (Brood Year)

Fraser River Discharge 1948-2015 1948-2016

Sea Surface Temperature (SST) 1948-2015 1948-2016

Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) 1948-2015 1948-2016

Outline Data Method Results Discussion Next Steps

Environmental Co-varies

Outline Data Method Results Discussion Next Steps

Environmental Co-varies

Outline Data Method Results Discussion Next Steps

Method Updates

• New criteria for model selection

– All sibling models applied for all stocks

– Model fit (R2) are calculated and compared with major biological models

𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑐𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑎𝑔𝑒 = (𝑀𝑎𝑗𝑜𝑟𝑅2 − 𝑆𝑖𝑏𝑙𝑖𝑛𝑔𝑅2)/𝑆𝑖𝑏𝑙𝑖𝑛𝑔𝑅2.

– If percentage<0.05 (sibling model R2 is greater than major model R2 or comparable to major model R2) sibling model is applied.

– If percentage>=0.05 (major model has a much greater R2), sibling model is not applied.

Outline Data Method Results Discussion Next Steps

Selected Models

Stock Env-covary model Sibling Model

Early Stuart √ √

Bowron √

Upper Barriere (Fennell)

√

Gates √

Nadina √ √

Pitt √

Scotch

Seymour

Chilko √

Late Stuart √ √

Quesnel √ √

Stellako √

Harrison √ √

Raft √ √

Cultus √ √

Late Shuswap √

Portage

Weaver √ √

Birkenhead √ √

Outline Data Method Results Discussion Next Steps

Chilko • A Larkin model has

outperformed the smolt-adults models in the last several years.

• Has the same rank performance in the most recent full retrospective analysis (Grant et al. 2010)

2020 Sockeye Run Size Forecast

Table

Outline Data Method Results Discussion Next Steps

2020 Run Size Summary by Run Time Group

Run Time Group

10% 25% 50% 75% 90%

Early Stuart

5,000 8,000 13,000 23,000 33,000

Early Summer

72,000 116,000 218,000 469,000 1,098,000

Summer 169,000 311,000 611,000 1,231,000 2,376,000

Late 28,000 53,000 99,000 190,000 374,000

Total 274,000 488,000 941,000 1,913,000 3,881,000

Outline Data Method Results Discussion Next Steps

Total Sockeye Return 1950-2020

Outline Data Method Results Discussion Next Steps

Productivity

Outline Data Method Results Discussion Next Steps

Chilko

Outline Data Method Results Discussion Next Steps

Chilko

Outline Data Method Results Discussion Next Steps

Chilko

Outline Data Method Results Discussion Next Steps

Next Steps:

• Retrospective analyses (CSAS)

• Incorporate more environmental variables

• Explore alternative methods (BRT, EDM, etc.)

Outline Data Method Results Discussion Next Steps