2019 global economic outlook - microsoft · 2019-01-04 · 2019 global economic outlook scott...

2019 Global Economic Outlook

Scott Anderson, Ph.D., EVP & Chief Economist, Bank of the West

San Joaquin County Hispanic Chamber of Commerce

Business Forecast Conference Stockton, CA

January 3, 2019

Let The Trade War Begin!!!!!

2

Global Economy Losing Momentum

3

Forecasting Deceleration in 2019

4

Positive U.S. Economic Surprises Fading

5

U.S. Labor Market Tight – How Much Tighter Can It Get?

6

20 Million Net New Jobs Created And Still Counting

7

Job Growth Will Slow in 2019

8

Unemployment Rate Starts to Rise By Q4 2019

9

Consumers Keep Spending

10

Real Earnings Growth Not Keeping Pace

11

Slowdown in Consumer Spending Forecast

12

No Investment Spending Boom Visible in the Data

13

Housing Cycle Has Peaked in the U.S. and California

14

Home Price Growth Moderates

15

Treasury Yield Curve Flattest Since 2007

16

Q2 Bounce Expected to be Peak U.S. Growth

17

What’s In Store for Interest Rates? Jerome Powell Takes the Reigns

18

Will Fed Rate Hikes Continue?

19

One Hike or Two More in 2019?

20

Prices for Most Commodities are Already Plunging

21

Bond Market Inflation Expectations Moving Lower

22

Interest Rate Outlook – Higher Then Lower

23

Can We Win a Trade War With China?

24

The Economic Cost Of Trade War Escalation

25

U.S. Equities Prices – Could They Fall Further?

26

Corporate Credit Spreads Start to Rise from Historically Low Levels

27

Disclosures:

The preceding presentation is for educational purposes only. The discussions and information contained within the presentation

should not be construed or used as a specific recommendation for the investment of assets of any customer of Bank of the West

or its affiliates and is not intended as an offer, or a solicitation of an offer, to purchase or sell any security or financial instrument,

nor does the information constitute advice or an expression of the Bank’s view as to whether a particular security or financial

instrument is appropriate for you and meets your financial objectives. Economic and market forecasts reflect subjective

judgments and assumptions, and unexpected events may occur. Therefore, there can be no assurance that developments will

transpire as forecasted. Please consult with your financial advisor prior to making investment decisions. All investing involves

risk, including loss of principal.

Bank of the West Wealth Management Group offers products and services through Bank of the West and its various affiliates and

subsidiaries. Bank of the West is a wholly owned subsidiary of BNP Paribas.

Scott Anderson - Bank of the West

Executive Vice President

Chief Economist

San Francisco, CA

Scott.Anderson@bankofthewest.com

b a n ko f t h e w e s t . c o m

THANK YOU