2017 biggish data presentation, home performance coalition conference, nashville, tn
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Peter Troast, Energy Circle
HPC National Conference, Nashville
March 20, 2017
Biggish Data: 7 Years of Facts on Home Performance
10/19/15
Founder/CEO of Energy Circle
Linked In: Peter Troast
Twitter: @EnergyCircle
G+: Energy Circle
Facebook: Energy Circle
Volunteer/Pro Bono
Efficiency First
Home Performance Project
Home Performance Coalition
1000 Home Challenge
Mallett Deep Energy Retrofit
2
Peter Troast
10/19/15
10
THE BIG PICTURE: THROUGH GOOGLE TRENDS
158 MILLION STRONG ON FACEBOOK
HOW PEOPLE BUY HOME PERFORMANCE
CURRENT STATE OF GOOGLE SEARCH—IMPACT
ONLINE REVIEW LANDSCAPE
SEASONAL TRIGGERS AND EVENTS
HEALTHY HOME DEMAND—WHAT WE KNOW SO FAR
STATE OF MOBILE
HOME PERFORMANCE INDUSTRY WEBSITE STRENGTH
CONVERSION: WHY IT MATTERS & WHAT WE’RE LEARNING
4
What We’ll Discuss
1
23
456
7
89
10/19/15
Mother Google (Trends & Search)
Mashup of 390+ High Performance Building Businesses builders/remodelers, raters, auditors, architects, HP contractors, HVAC, non-profits
23.2 Million Web Visitors
Paid Search Results 64,000 Tracked Search Terms in Home Performance, HVAC
Select Contractor Performance (Anonymized)
Facebook Interests
Peter’s Opinion
5
Data Sources
LIES DAMNED LIES
STATISTICS
GOOGLE TRENDS: WHAT IT TELLS US ABOUT HOME
PERFORMANCE
10/19/15 8
Learning from Google Search
3/20/17
Google Trends shows how often a particular search-term is
entered relative to the total search-volume across a region.
9
3/20/17 10
Home Performance
3/20/17 11
Home Performance & Energy Audit
3/20/17 12
Home Performance/Audit in Context
3/20/17 17
Fading Green?
10/19/15 18
Wither Energy Star Homes?
3/20/17 19
Net Zero vs Passive House (topics)
3/20/17 20
Net Zero, Passive House, Green Building
3/20/17 21
“skate to where the puck is going to be”
3/20/17 22
Healthy Home vs IAQ
3/20/17 23
The Magic of Whole House
158.4 MILLION STRONG (US Users)
10/19/15 25
A Stunning (and Scary) Dataset
Interests Ventilation Sick Bldg Syndrome Mold Growth Radon Mitigation SEER ASHRAE Handbook R-Value SIPs HRV Allergen Thermal Comfort
Behavioral Length of Residence Recent Homebuyer New Mover Charities—Enviro Home Renovation Green Cleaners AOL email Gmail email Primarily Cash Watch Home Imp Shows
Demographic Expectant Parents Very Conservative Very Liberal Donate to Liberal Year Home Built Square Footage Home Value Life Event: Newly Moved Friends of Recently Moved Liquid Assets Net Worth
3/20/17 26
Facebook Interests Data March 2017
Green LivingClimate Change
Solar EnergyAir CoolingRetrofitting
Green BuildingSpray Foam (Insulation)
ParticulatesBuilding Science
Tankless Water HeatingBuilding Performance
Healthy HomeBlower Door
0 10,000,000 20,000,000 30,000,000 40,000,000
3/20/17 27
Green Living
Home Improvement
HVAC
Climate ChangeEnvironmentally Friendly
Solar Energy
Efficient Energy Use
Thermal InsulationRetrofitting
Heat Pump
Indoor Air Quality
Particulates
R-ValueASHRAE
-70% -56% -42% -28% -14% 0% 14% 28% 42% 56% 70%
39%62%
34%-57%
-7%-36%
9%27%
11%14%
70%37%
61%19%
Data from Facebook Ad Manager, collected March 2016 vs March 2017
YOY Change: Facebook Interests Volumes
HOW PEOPLE BUY HOME PERFORMANCE
(they don’t. you sell it)
10/19/15 29
Fundamentals of HP Marketing & Sales
EGIA/BPI
WHOLE HOUSE HOME PERFORMANCE
AC RepairSpray Foam Asthma Rebate
IAQ New FurnaceClimate Change Heat Pump
Sick Child
MoldCold Room
Energy Cost
MORE COMPREHENSIVE JOBS
Fujistu
3/20/17
Conversion from Single Interest to
Whole House Perspective is
Critical
30
Home Performance’s Key Success Factor
THE STATE OF THE SERP IN EARLY 2017
(search engine result page)
Pre-August 2015
Google Paid
Google Paid
Google Local 7 Pack
Organic
Google Paid
Google PaidGoogle
Local 3 Pack
Organic
Post-August 2015
Google Paid @ 4
Google Local 3 Pack
Organic
Post-February 22, 2016
Nada
A Mobile First World
3/20/17 36
More Real Estate for…Ads
3/20/17 37
Expanding Ads via Extensions
3/20/17 38
Where’s This Coming From?
$245 million/day
Google Home
Services Ad
Organic
Google Home Services Ad (beta test)
Google Home
Services Ad
Organic
Google Home Services Ad (beta test)
Solar Sunroof
Google Project Sunroof
SO ORGANIC TRAFFIC SHOULD BE DECLINING, RIGHT?
SO ORGANIC TRAFFIC SHOULD BE DECLINING, RIGHT?
NOPE
3/20/17 46
AC Centric Biz Model
3/20/17 47
Home Performance w Heat Pumps
3/20/17 48
Envelope Contractor
3/20/17 49
Insulation Contractor
3/20/17 50
HVAC/Home Performance
3/20/17 51
When Content Stops
3/20/17 54
Rise of “Near Me” Searches
3/20/17 55
Industry “Near Me” Data
Plumber
HVAC
Solar
ONLINE REVIEW LANDSCAPE (you can run but you cannot hide)
3/20/17 57
Online Reviews vs Personal Recommendation
3/20/17 59
Rising Review Prominence
3/20/17 63
Google Knowledge Graph Data
3/20/17 64
Threshold for Stars: Formerly 5, Now 1
3/20/17
PRIOR CATEGORIES
Air Conditioning Contractor Air Conditioning Repair Service Air Duct Cleaning Service Bathroom Remodeler Building Restoration Service Custom Home Builder Deck Builder Electrician Environmental Consultant Environmental Engineer Furnace Repair Service Garage Builder Handyman Heating Contractor Home Builder Home Inspector HVAC Contractor Insulation Contractor Kitchen Remodeler Siding Contractor Solar Energy Equipment Supplier Utility Contractor Window Installation Service
65
Google My Business Category ExpansionNEW CATEGORIES
General Contractor Solar Energy Company Solar Energy Contractor Solar Hot Water System Supplier Air Conditioning System Supplier Air Conditioning Store Furnace Store Heating Equipment Supplier Log Home Builder Roofing Contractor Window SupplierWindow Tinting Service
SEASONAL AND TEMPERATURE TRIGGERS
3/20/17 67
Search Volume Seasonality—Winter
Energy Furnace
Insulation Spray Foam
3/20/17 68
Search Volume Seasonality—Summer
Air Conditioner AC Repair
Radiant Barrier
3/20/17 69
The Seasonality Challenge
“Air Conditioning
Repair”
2016
2015
2014
2013
June 1March 1
3/20/17 71
Every Year is Different (National Data)
May 5 Apr 27 Apr 12 May 22June 10
3/20/17 72
Insulation: Surprisingly Unseasonal
3/20/17 73
Insulation’s Temperature Correlation
3/20/17 74
Ductless Mini Split
JulyDecember
3/20/17 75
Ductless Heat Pump Seasonality (Maine)
August AugustAugust
THE PUSH FOR IAQ & HP
WHAT ARE WE LEARNING? (caution: it’s way early)
3/20/17 77
Healthy Home Terms “Potential”
Volume how often searched for
Opportunity estimated click-through rate
Difficulty of ranking ahead of competition
= Potential combined metrics; sweet sot
3/20/17 78
Healthy Home Terms “Potential”
mold testing 75air quality testing 70home air quality test 66indoor air quality testing
63air quality test 58blower door test 57indoor air pollution 54healthy home 54volatile organic compounds
53vocs 52indoor pollution 47indoor air pollutants 45healthy home tips 40contaminants/particulates
31indoor air quality assessment
26home air health 25allergies & asthma 20
Volume how often searched for
Opportunity estimated click-through rate
Difficulty of ranking ahead of competition
= Potential combined metrics; sweet sot
3/20/17 79
Conversion Rates (to Leads)
Asthma
Mold
Air Quality
Humidity
Dust
Allergies
Dehumidifier
Moisture
0% 1.4% 2.8% 4.2% 5.6% 7%
0.5%
0.4%
0.3%
0.1%
0.3%
6.8%
0.2%
0.4%
3/20/17
indoor air quality standards the best humidity level for home air quality inspector air quality inspection what is the best level of humidity in a home how to test indoor air quality what is the best humidity level for your home normal humidity levels in a home home humidity levels chart measuring air quality what causes moisture in a house what is a good humidity level in a home how to get rid of dust in home symptoms of mold in home what is good humidity level for home what is the optimum humidity level for a home air quality check indoor air quality company how to find mold in your home home air quality testing what is the best humidity level for home ideal humidity level for home
80
Top 25 (based on Click Through Rates)
3/20/17
indoor air quality standards the best humidity level for home air quality inspector air quality inspection what is the best level of humidity in a home how to test indoor air quality what is the best humidity level for your home normal humidity levels in a home home humidity levels chart measuring air quality what causes moisture in a house what is a good humidity level in a home how to get rid of dust in home symptoms of mold in home what is good humidity level for home what is the optimum humidity level for a home air quality check indoor air quality company how to find mold in your home home air quality testing what is the best humidity level for home ideal humidity level for home
81
Top 25 (based on Click Through Rates)
3/20/17
indoor air quality standards the best humidity level for home air quality inspector air quality inspection what is the best level of humidity in a home how to test indoor air quality what is the best humidity level for your home normal humidity levels in a home home humidity levels chart measuring air quality what causes moisture in a house what is a good humidity level in a home how to get rid of dust in home symptoms of mold in home what is good humidity level for home what is the optimum humidity level for a home air quality check indoor air quality company how to find mold in your home home air quality testing what is the best humidity level for home ideal humidity level for home
82
Top 25 (based on Click Through Rates)
3/20/17
indoor air quality standards the best humidity level for home air quality inspector air quality inspection what is the best level of humidity in a home how to test indoor air quality what is the best humidity level for your home normal humidity levels in a home home humidity levels chart measuring air quality what causes moisture in a house what is a good humidity level in a home how to get rid of dust in home symptoms of mold in home what is good humidity level for home what is the optimum humidity level for a home air quality check indoor air quality company how to find mold in your home home air quality testing what is the best humidity level for home ideal humidity level for home
83
Top 25 (based on Click Through Rates)
MOBILE ARMAGEDDON?
3/20/17 85
The State of Mobile Search in 2017
10/19/15
• Significant ranking penalties
• Loss of real traffic & calls
86
Implications of Mobile First
3/20/17 87
Energy Circle Network Data
Mobile Traffic
2017: 25.62% vs
2012: 8.98%
3/20/17 88
Contractor 1
Contractor 2
Contractor 3
Contractor 4
Contractor 5
Contractor 6
Contractor 7
Contractor 8
Contractor 9
Contractor 10
-60% 0% 60% 120% 180% 240% 300%
37%
80%
137%
268%
-6%
-9%
16%
150%
34%
30%
Data from Energy Circle Clients, 12 months of 2016; $4-6 Million Sales Contractors
March 2016-2017 YOY Mobile Traffic Growth
3/20/17 89
Contractor 1
Contractor 2
Contractor 3
Contractor 4
Contractor 5
Contractor 6
Contractor 7
Contractor 8
Contractor 9
Contractor 10
-60% 0% 60% 120% 180% 240% 300%
37%
80%
137%
268%
-6%
-9%
16%
150%
34%
30%
March 2016-2017 YOY Mobile Traffic Growth
Average Growth: 74% Average Lead Conversion Growth: 54%
3/20/17 90
Envelope
HVAC
HVAC
Envelope
Envelope
Envelope
HVAC
HVAC
HVAC
HVAC
-60% 0% 60% 120% 180% 240% 300%
37%
80%
137%
268%
-6%
-9%
16%
150%
34%
30%
Data from Energy Circle Clients, 12 months of 2016; $4-6 Million Sales Contractors
YOY Mobile Traffic Growth: Select Companies
HOME PERFORMANCE
WEBSITE STRENGTH
10/19/15 92
Moz Domain Authority
Authority
• An approximation of your website’s quality in the eyes of Google
• 40 Factors
Popularity (links)
Size (# Pages)
Age
Freshness (recency)
• Proven by correlation
10/19/15 93
Open Site Explorer
10/19/15 94
What Should Your Goal Be?
3/20/17 95
Domain Authority/Links Correlation
Domain Authority
Links
~400 HVAC, Insulation, HP, High Performance Build/Remod, Auditors, March 2017
3/20/17 96
Domain Authorities in HP
~400 HVAC, Insulation, HP, High Performance Build/Remod, Auditors, March 2017
CONVERSION RATE DATA (the most important metric)
3/20/17 98
LEADS / TRAFFIC
=
CONVERSION RATE
3/20/17 99
Two Choices
1. Phone
2. Form
10/19/15 100
Call Tracking is Vital
29%
71%
Web Forms
Phone Calls
10/19/15DATE
1. Lead Form 2. Phone Call 3. Chat on Website 4. Chat from Google 5. Bid Request from Google 6. Text
101
Changing Ways Prospects Contact You
10/19/15 102
Why Conversion Matters So Much
BeforeAll Web Traffic 1625
Conv Rate 7.72%
Leads 125
Lead -> Job 12%
Jobs 15
Ave Job 8500
Revenue $127,500
10/19/15 103
Why Conversion Matters So Much
Before AfterAll Web Traffic 1625 1625
Conv Rate 7.72% 9.39% +1.67 / 22%
Leads 125 153 +27
Lead -> Job 12% 12%
Jobs 15 18 +3
Ave Job 8500 8500
Revenue $127,500 $156,060 +28,560
3/20/17 104
Contractor 1
Contractor 2
Contractor 3
Contractor 4
Contractor 5
Contractor 6
Contractor 7
Contractor 8
Contractor 9
Contractor 10
Contractor 11
0% 4% 8% 12% 16% 20%
6%
6.87%
8.8%
5.88%
13.11%
10.22%
9.84%
19.05%
19.47%
12.02%
10.71%
Data from Energy Circle Clients, 12 months of 2016
2016 Average Conversion Rates: Select Companies
3/20/17 105
Contractor 1Contractor 2Contractor 3Contractor 4Contractor 5Contractor 6Contractor 7Contractor 8Contractor 9
Contractor 10Contractor 11Contractor 12Contractor 13
0% 3.2% 6.4% 9.6% 12.8% 16%
4.16%2.74%
12.63%10.05%
7.88%10.58%
8.58%8.62%
8.13%9.86%
10.52%15.61%
15.12%
Data from Energy Circle Clients, 12 months of 2016
2016 Average Conversion Rates: Select Companies
10/19/15
Correlated • High % of “Brand” Searches
• Domain Authority > 20
• Volume of Reviews (esp. Google)
106
Why Do Some Sites Convert Better?
Not Correlated • Age of Website
• Age of Company
• HVAC in Origin
• Envelope in Origin
Commonalities • Contextual Calls to Action
• A/B Testing
3/20/17 107
Organic
Paid
Direct
Social
Yelp
0% 3.6% 7.2% 10.8% 14.4% 18%
17.82%
1.97%
5.2%
5.57%
16.94%
9.55%
Data from 32 Energy Circle Clients, 12 months of 2015
Average Conversion Rates by Medium
*
WHO IS BUYING:
HOME PERFORMANCE
HIGH PERFORMANCE HOMES
?
3/20/17 109
DATA
10/19/15
AGE DEMOGRAPHICS
Baby Boomers—Last Home Phenomenon
Gen X (35-55 yrs)
Millennials (15-35 yrs)
110
High Performance Home Buyers
OTHER CATEGORIES
Academics
Technologists (Engineers, Medical, Technology, Software)
Upscale/Wealthy
Green/Left Leaning
Health Focused
First Home
10/19/15
AGE DEMOGRAPHICS
111
High Performance Home Buyers
OTHER CATEGORIES
Academics
Technologists (Engineers, Medical, Technology, Software)
Upscale/Wealthy
Green/Left Leaning
Health Focused
First Home
Millennials
Boomers
Gen X
10/19/15
Last-home William Overall Goal: Envisions a dream home in a beautiful location where he and his spouse can spend their retirement years living well, at low operational cost. Level of knowledge: High, but willing to take new input. He has read as much as he can and understands the basic parameters. It’s not his first time working with contractors or building a new home. If he trusts you, he’ll listen and learn. Informational Sources: Economist, local paper, reference books, trusted friends and family members, sometimes a blog or email newsletter. What he wants: A great overall result. Executive decision-making power. A source of pride and a site for family reunions, now including grandkids. Freedom from high monthly bills. The ability to enjoy retirement, travel. Motivation for efficiency: It’s a soft investment. He knows it may not pay off entirely in his own lifetime, but he can afford it. The concept of home.
Age: 62 Profession: Doctor Location: Suburbs or somewhat rural Personality: Thoughtful, active and generally social, but likes his quiet time. Home Life: William has seen his 3 kids through college. 2 of them are married and have homes of their own. The youngest has a job and her own place to live, although she has not completely solidified her finances yet. William and his spouse like to cook and go for walks together. They host a monthly revolving dinner party with about 10-12 friends, also babyboomers.
112
Personas
EGIA/BPI
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