2015-2016 winter/spring outlook derrick weitlich national weather service melbourne central florida...

2015-2016 Winter/Spring Outlook2015-2016 Winter/Spring Outlook

Derrick WeitlichDerrick WeitlichNational Weather Service Melbourne National Weather Service Melbourne

Central Florida Prescribed Fire Council Annual Central Florida Prescribed Fire Council Annual MeetingMeeting

September 25, 2015September 25, 2015

Central Florida ClimateCentral Florida Climate

Wet

Dry

Average Monthly Temp/Precip Normals for Central Average Monthly Temp/Precip Normals for Central FloridaFlorida

90 day Rainfall Departures90 day Rainfall Departures

Current KBDI ValuesCurrent KBDI Values

30 Day Rainfall 30 Day Rainfall DeparturesDepartures

Detailed KBDIDetailed KBDI(4km Resolution)(4km Resolution)

Drought MonitorDrought Monitor

Dry Season ForecastDry Season Forecast

How does El Niño influence Florida How does El Niño influence Florida Weather and why all of these buzz Weather and why all of these buzz

words about this event?words about this event?

El Niño-Southern OscillationEl Niño-Southern Oscillation

• La Niña is characterized by cooler than normal (≤ -0.5 °C) SST’s in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific waters.

• El Niño is characterized by warmer than normal (≥ +0.5 °C) SST’s in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific waters.

• La Niña is characterized by cooler than normal (≤ -0.5 °C) SST’s in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific waters.

• El Niño is characterized by warmer than normal (≥ +0.5 °C) SST’s in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific waters.

Niño RegionsNiño Regions

Current/Forecast ENSO ConditionsCurrent/Forecast ENSO Conditions

• Well above normal SSTs greater than 2°C above normal are occurring over the east central Pacific

• El Niño conditions are expected to continue through Spring 2016 as a strong El Niño event (possibly record breaking) with peak 3 month SST departures in excess of 2.0°C.

• Well above normal SSTs greater than 2°C above normal are occurring over the east central Pacific

• El Niño conditions are expected to continue through Spring 2016 as a strong El Niño event (possibly record breaking) with peak 3 month SST departures in excess of 2.0°C.

El NiEl Niñño Impactso Impacts

LL

LightningLightningDensityDensity

ENSOENSOPhasePhase

La NiñaLa Niña

El NiñoEl Niño

Osceola/Orange/SeminoleOsceola/Orange/SeminoleFeb 23, 1998Feb 23, 19983 F3: 158-206 mph3 F3: 158-206 mph42 Fatalities42 Fatalities

Lake CountyLake CountyFeb 2, 2007Feb 2, 2007

2 EF3: 155-165 mph2 EF3: 155-165 mph21 Fatalities21 Fatalities

El NiEl Niñño Impacts (Precip)o Impacts (Precip)

1957-1958

1972-1973 1982-1983

1965-1966

1997-1998

Precipitation Anomalies of the 5 strongest El Niños on RecordPrecipitation Anomalies of the 5 strongest El Niños on Record(November-April)(November-April)

El NiEl Niñño Impacts (Temperature)o Impacts (Temperature)

1957-1958

1972-1973 1982-1983

1965-1966

1997-1998

Temperature Anomalies of the 5 strongest El Niños on RecordTemperature Anomalies of the 5 strongest El Niños on Record(November-April)(November-April)

Additional Impact InformationAdditional Impact Information

• ENSO phase shows little predictability in the number of overall freeze events. However, stronger El Niños tend to lessen the number of extreme freezes across the region.

• Even the strongest El Niños do not continuously impact Florida’s weather during a dry season. Long dry periods can still occur between high impact storm systems.

• ENSO’s impact lessens into the late Spring and usually has little influence on the start date of the wet season. (1998 exception?)

• ENSO phase shows little predictability in the number of overall freeze events. However, stronger El Niños tend to lessen the number of extreme freezes across the region.

• Even the strongest El Niños do not continuously impact Florida’s weather during a dry season. Long dry periods can still occur between high impact storm systems.

• ENSO’s impact lessens into the late Spring and usually has little influence on the start date of the wet season. (1998 exception?)

NOAA CPC Dec-Feb RainfallNOAA CPC Dec-Feb Rainfall

• CPC Rainfall Forecast for Central Florida (DJF):

- 70% chance for above normal precipitation

- 27% chance of near normal precipitation

- 3% chance of below normal precipitation

• CPC Rainfall Forecast for Central Florida (DJF):

- 70% chance for above normal precipitation

- 27% chance of near normal precipitation

- 3% chance of below normal precipitation

NOAA CPC Dec-Feb TemperatureNOAA CPC Dec-Feb Temperature

• CPC Temp Forecast for Central Florida (DJF):

- 40% chance for below normal temperatures

- 33% chance of near normal temperatures

- 27% chance of above normal temperatures

• CPC Temp Forecast for Central Florida (DJF):

- 40% chance for below normal temperatures

- 33% chance of near normal temperatures

- 27% chance of above normal temperatures

NWS MLB Dry Season ForecastNWS MLB Dry Season Forecast

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mlb/?n=mlbninohttp://www.srh.noaa.gov/mlb/?n=mlbnino

Stay Updated!Stay Updated!

• Keep up to date on the evolving El Nino and Temp/Precip outlooks for Florida

- www.srh.noaa.gov/mlb/?n=mlbnino – Local Dry Season Forecast

- www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov – ENSO Diagnostic Discussion and 1 & 3 month Temp/Precip outlooks

• Keep up to date on the evolving El Nino and Temp/Precip outlooks for Florida

- www.srh.noaa.gov/mlb/?n=mlbnino – Local Dry Season Forecast

- www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov – ENSO Diagnostic Discussion and 1 & 3 month Temp/Precip outlooks