2011 atlantic basin hurricane season the forecast for an active season with more late season storms...

2011 ATLANTIC BASIN HURRICANE SEASON

THE FORECAST FOR AN ACTIVE SEASON WITH MORE LATE SEASON STORMS AND

GREATER IMPACTS ON USA COASTS THAN IN 2010 IS STILL PLAUSIBLE

June 1 -- NOVEMBER 30, 2011

Dr. Walter Hays,

Global Alliance For Disaster Reduction

2011 FORECAST

2011 FORECAST

AREAS OF CONCERN SHIFT AS THE SEASON PROGRESSES

• EARLY SEASON: Western Gulf of Mexico and the southern portion of the Caribbean [with USA impacts along the Texas and Louisiana coastlines.]

• MID-TO-LATE SEASON: The eastern Gulf and Caribbean [with USA and Canadian impacts from the Florida Peninsula to the Carolinas, New England, and the Maratimes.]

CONTRIBUTING PHYSICAL FACTORS

• The orientation and position of the Azores and Bermuda high-pressure areas in the Atlantic.

• The future state of the ongoing La Niña. [La Niña is starting to weaken, which could have an impact on the westerly wind component in the tropical Atlantic as well as the Caribbean.]

CONTRIBUTING PHYSICAL FACTORS

• The frequency and amount of dust that accompanies disturbances moving off the African coast. [The presence of dust indicates dry air, which can hinder tropical development in the eastern Atlantic.]

CONTRIBUTING PHYSICAL FACTORS

• A phenomenon known as Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) [Currently, the sea surface temperature is in the warm phase, and warm water is "hurricane fuel.]

STORM TRACKS OF 2011’s FIRST 9 STORMS: ARLENE -- IRENE

2011’s FIRST STORM

TROPICAL STORM ARLENE

JUNE 30TH

2011’S TROPICAL STORM ARLENE

FIRST SEVERE WINDSTORM OF ATLANTIC -- GULF OF MEXICO BASIN STRIKES VERACRUZ STATE, MEXICO

Thursday, June 30, 2011

ARLENE’S PHYSICAL CHARACTERISTICS

Arlene had an estimated minimum central pressure of 993 mb and maximum sustained winds of 100 kph (65 mph).

Tropical storm force winds and rain bands extended outward up to 330 km (205 miles) from the eye.

ARLENE MADE LANDFALL NEAR CABO ROJO:JUNE 30, 2011

ARLENE’S PHYSICAL EFFECTS

Tropical storm force winds and rain bands extended outward for up to 330 km (205 miles) from the eye.

ARLENE’S PHYSICAL EFFECTS

Arlene’s storm surge raised water levels by as much as 1/3 to 1 m (1 to 3 feet) along the immediate coast near and to the north of Cabo Rojo.

Arlene generated 20 cm (8 inches) of rain, which was mostly welcome due to the dry conditions, even though it caused minor flooding and triggered 6 landslides.

PREPARATION FOR ARLENE

Having anticipated flooding, officials in the states of Veracruz, Tamaulipas and San Luis Potosi and closed schools, mobilized emergency medical units and prepared evacuation shelters.

DEATHS

Government officials reported 22 deaths.

2011’s SECOND STORM

TROPICAL STORM BRET

JULY 26TH

2005’S TROPICAL STORM BRET

Bret moved ashore within 24 hours of forming, and dissipated shortly thereafter

in Veracruz, Mexico

JUNE 28TH, 2005

2011’s THIRD STORM

TROPICAL STORM CINDY

JUNE 26TH

2005’S CAT 1 HURRICANE CINDY

Cindy initially formed on July 3rd just east of the Yucatan Peninsula; It made landfall twice, Mexico and Louisiana

JULY 3RD , 2005

2011’s BRET AND CINDY DIED IN THE ATLANTIC

2011’s FOURTH STORM

TROPICAL STORM DON

JUNE 27TH

2011’s TROPICAL STORM DON (still developing)

Tropical Storm Don headed across the Gulf towards the oil-rich Texas coast with a Friday (July 29th) arrival.

2011’s TROPICAL STORM DON (approaching landfall)

TROPICAL STORM DON’S RAIN BROUGHT SOME,

BUT NOT ENOUGH, RELIEF TO DROUGHT-STRICKEN

TEXAS

PRECURSSOR TO EMILY: JULY 31st

2011’s FIFTH STORM

TROPICAL STORM EMILY

AUGUST 1, 2011

EMILY’S PREDICTED PATH OF AUGUST 1st DID NOT HAPPEN

FLORIDA WAS SPARED: EMILY: DIED IN ATLANTIC: AUGUST 6st

Dominican Republic: The approaching storm forced

evacuations to avoid flooding, cancellation of

flights, and closure of government offices.

EMILY ARRIVED IN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WITH 80 KPH WIND AND RAIN: AUGUST 4

HAITI: 600,000 LIVING IN TENT CITIES AFTER THE 2010 EARTHQUAKE COULD NOT TAKE EVEN

THE MOST BASIC PRECAUTIONS

Emily caused floods and damaged hundreds of homes

in HAITI.

Haiti, which has had an ongoing cholera problem

since the January 19, 2010 earthquake faced even greater problems after Emily’s heavy rainfall.

Tropical Storm Emily broke apart and became a tropical

depression on August 6th-- no longer a threat to Florida.

2011’s SIXTH STORM

TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN

AUGUST 13TH

TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN: 450 MILES N-NE OF BERMUDA; AUGUST 13rd

2011’s SEVENTH STORM

TROPICAL STORM GERT

AUGUST 14th

TROPICAL STORM GERT FORMED NEAR BERMUDA ON AUGUST 15 AND DIED

Monday, August 15, 2011 marked the start of what is sometimes called the Cape

Verde season, when the most powerful storms tend to be spawned off the coast

of West Africa.

2011’s EIGHTH STORM

TROPICAL STORM HARVEY

DEVELOPING AS OF AUGUST 17th

TROPICAL STORM HARVEY’S PATH ENDED ON AUGUST 22ND

2011’s NINTH STORM

TROPICAL STORM IRENE

FORMED ON AUGUST 20th DEVELOPED INTO FIRST HURRICANE

OF SEASON ON AUGUST 22nd

TROPICAL STORM IRENE ON AUGUST 21st : TO BE FIRST HURRICANE OF 2011

TROPICAL STORM IRENE BECOMES FIRST HURRICANE OF 2011: AUG 22

ON AUGUST 22, IRENE---

• ---caused loss of power for 1 million people, loss of water for 100,000 people, downed trees, damaged homes, forced evacuations and school and office closures in Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, but no deaths,

(Continued) ON AUGUST 22, IRENE---

• ---- posed an immediate threat to the northeastern coast of the Dominican Republic for 15 hours, but…

(Continued) ON AUGUST 22, IRENE---

• --- missed Haiti where 600,000 refugees are still living in tents, but exacerbated flooding and mudslides in the northern region where past storms have killed thousands, and

• --- worsened conditions for fighting the cholera epidemic that has already killed some 6,000 people.

FLOODING: NAGUABO, PR; AUG 22

FLOODING: PONCE AGOSTO, PR; ZA, PR; AUG 24th

AUG 23 FORECAST : IRENE BECAME A CAT 3 STORM

AUG 23: IRENE’S FORECAST HAD A HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY FOR SOME TIME

The potential risk is very high, because it would take just a slight shift in the storm track to the west to make a dramatic change in the

economic and health-care impacts of the storm should it make

landfall in a highly populated area.

Irene may be the catalyst the insurance industry has been

seeking in its quest for across-the-board premium increases,

in what may become the costliest year in history for

global natural disasters.

EVACUATION UNDERWAY IN NORTH CAROLINA

• As of Wednesday morning (August 24th), Irene intensified to a CAT 3 hurricane, with a high probability of becoming a CAT 4.

• Residents in some parts of North Carolina were advised to evacuate.

NORTH CAROLINA: EVACUATIONS STARTING FOR REAL; AUGUST 24th

AUG 24: FORECAST SHOWS EYE OF STORM SLOWLY SHIFTING EASTWARD

AUG 27: FORECAST AFTER 7:30 AM LANDFALL IN OUTER BANKS, NC

WHAT TO EXPECT ALL THE EAST COAST TO NEW ENGLAND

• Rain--flooding• Wind—damage to homes and

buildings• Storm surge—flooding• Beach erosion and mudslides--

irreversible loss

AUG 28: IRENE HAD NEW YORK CITY IN ITS SIGHTS

AUGUST 28: LANDFALLIrene made landfall over New

York’s Coney Island with winds of 100 kph (65 mph) before reaching New York City at 9 A.M. bringing a storm surge

that sent 1 m (3 1/2-ft) of water into New York Harbor.

GOOD NEWSNew York City’s risk from the wind field decreased significantly when

Hurricane Irene suddenly weakened early on Sunday

morning.

BAD NEWS Irene Became a Regional and Local Flooding Event With a Mix of Fresh and Salt Water

IRENE ON SUNDAY, AUGUST 28th

Although Weakened and Downgraded to a Tropical Storm, Irene was still a

Dangerous Storm for Cities Located in Front of and Behind the Storm’s Eye

Cities in the northeast (e.g., New York City, Long Island, Philadelphia, Trenton, and others) had to face Irene’s storm surge, rain fall, and

New Moon high tides

WHAT NORTHEAST CITIES FACED

• Storm surge (5-8 ft in NY City), and “new moon” tides (2-3 ft)—, flooding with potential for deaths, especially if people drive through standing water or get trapped in autos or buildings.

• Overflowing/encroaching rivers--