17 jul 20011 climate change 2001: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability overview of wgii findings...
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17 Jul 2001 1
Climate Change 2001:
Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
Overview of WGII Findings Neil Leary
IPCC Special Event, CoP6 Part II, Bonn-Germany, 17 July 2001
17 Jul 2001 2
Preparation of the WGII Report
Written by 183 Lead and 243 Contributing Authors Authors met multiple times during the 2 1/2 year assessment
Peer Reviewed by scientific and technical experts by governments
Report revised to address reviewer comments 33 Review Editors oversaw the review/revision process
Accepted at 6th Session of IPCC WGII as “a comprehensive, objective, and balanced view” Session attended by government delegates of 100 nations
17 Jul 2001 3
Preparation of the Summary for Policymakers (SPM)
60 authors of the WGII Report drafted the SPM A first draft was circulated to all lead authors, external
reviewers and governments prior to a meeting of authors The SPM was revised by authors based on written comments
and discussion at the meeting
The revised draft was circulated to all governments for their consideration Written comments submitted again The authors met and revised the SPM again
17 Jul 2001 4
Approval of WGII SPM
The SPM was approved at 6th Session of IPCC WGII Approval signifies agreement that the SPM is consistent with
the full report
Changes were made to the SPM at the WG Session to clarify the language and to highlight material of particular relevance to policymakers
40 authors participated in the WG Session Authors ensured that changes were scientifically valid and that the final document was consistent with the full report
17 Jul 2001 5
General Findings from WGII
Temperature increases have already affected physical and biological systems
Preliminary indications that human systems have been affected by increases in floods and droughts
Natural systems are vulnerable and some will be irreversibly damaged
Many human systems are sensitive to climate change and some are vulnerable
Projected changes in climate extremes could have major consequences
Risks of large-scale and possibly irreversible impacts are yet to be reliably quantified
Adaptation is a necessary complement to mitigation
Those with least resources have least capacity to adapt and are most vulnerable
Adaptation, sustainable development, and enhancement of equity can be mutually reinforcing.
17 Jul 2001 7
Types of Changes Seen
Animals and PlantsRange shifts (latitudinal or altitudinal)
Abundance changes
Change in growing season length
Earlier flowering; emergence of insects; migration and egg-laying in birds
Morphology shifts (e.g. body & egg sizes)
Hydrology and Glaciers
Glacier shrinkage
Permafrost thawing
Later freeze & earlier break up of river and lake ice
17 Jul 2001 8
Numbers of species or processes changing
-100
0
100
200
300
in direction expected
opposite to direction expected
Amphibians
Vegetation
Invertebrates
Birds
Glaciers/ hydrology
Mammals
90% of physical and 80% of biological cases identified are changing in the direction consistent with well-established temperature relationships.
17 Jul 2001 9
There are preliminary indications that some human systems have been affected by increases in floods and droughts
17 Jul 2001 11
Natural systems are vulnerable to climate change and some will be irreversibly damaged
17 Jul 2001 12
Endorheic lakes: e.g. Caspian, Aral seas
Tropical glaciers and related water flows
Ecosystems with migration barriers - e.g. Montane ecosystems, Cape Floral Kingdom
Coral Reefs (1% of ocean area, 30% of marine species)
Mangroves- e.g. Sundarbans, last habitat of Royal Bengal Tiger
Endangered species
Some Threatened Systems
17 Jul 2001 14
Human Systems
Vulnerabilities
Food and water security
Incomes and livelihoods
Human health
Infrastructure
Sensitive Systems
Water resources
Agriculture, forestry, fisheries
Human settlements
Industry, energy, financial services
17 Jul 2001 16
Changes in extreme events (temperature)
Higher maximum temperatures, more hot days and heat waves over nearly all land areas (Very likely)
Increased death and serious illness in older age groups and urban poorIncreased heat stress in livestock and wildlifeShift in tourist destinations Increased risk of damage to a number of cropsIncreased electric cooling demand and reduced energy supply reliability
Higher [Increasing] minimum temperatures, fewer cold days, frost days and cold waves over nearly all land areas (Very likely)
Decreased cold-related human morbidity and mortalityDecreased damage to a number of crops, and increased risk to othersExtended range and activity of some pest and disease vectorsReduced heating energy demand
17 Jul 2001 17
Changes in extreme events (hydrological)
More intense precipitation events (Very likely, over many areas)
Increased flood, landslide, avalanche, and mudslide damageIncreased soil erosionIncreased flood runoff could increase recharge of some floodplain aquifersIncreased pressure on government and private insurance systems and disaster relief
Increased summer drying over most mid-latitude continental interiors and associated risk of drought (Likely)
Decreased crop yieldsIncreased damage to building foundations caused by ground shrinkageDecreased water resource quantity and qualityIncreased risk of forest fire
17 Jul 2001 18
Risks of large scale and possibly irreversible impacts are yet to be reliably quantified
17 Jul 2001 19
Sea level rise fromdisintegration of Greenlandand West Antarctic Ice Sheets
Substantial slowing or collapse ofocean circulation that transports
heat to North Atlantic
Very low likelihood in 21st century but increases with rate, magnitude and duration of climate change
17 Jul 2001 20
Article 2: The ultimate objective of this Convention … is to achieve … stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Such a level should be achieved within a time-frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner.
Synthesis
Reasons for concernRisks to Unique and Threatened Systems
Risks from Extreme Climate Events
Distribution of Impacts
Aggregate Impacts
Risks from Future Large-Scale Discontinuities
A multi-dimensional basis for providing scientific and technical information relevant to policy decisions on “dangerous” levels of interference with the climate system.
17 Jul 2001 21
Comparing reasons for concern
Year
Glo
bal m
ean
war
min
g o C
I Risks to Unique and Threatened SystemsII Risks from Extreme Climate EventsIII Distribution of ImpactsIV Aggregate ImpactsV Risks from Future Large-Scale Discontinuities
17 Jul 2001 22
Summary
For small amounts of climate change, benefits are projected for some sectors and regions, although the majority of people are likely to be adversely affected
For larger amounts of change, projected benefits diminish, projected damages increase, and risks associated with large scale discontinuities become more important
The WG II contribution to the IPCC Third Assessment Report provides the clearest evidence yet that the effects of climate change will be widespread and should be taken seriously.
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