11th intecol congress, ecology: into the next 100 years , london 2013

INDIRECT EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON INDIRECT EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON

MEDITERRANEAN BIODIVERSITY: THE ROLE MEDITERRANEAN BIODIVERSITY: THE ROLE

OF LAND USE CHANGES AND FIREOF LAND USE CHANGES AND FIRE

11th INTECOL Congress, Ecology: Into the next 100 years11th INTECOL Congress, Ecology: Into the next 100 years, ,

London 2013London 2013

11th INTECOL Congress, Ecology: Into the next 100 years11th INTECOL Congress, Ecology: Into the next 100 years, ,

London 2013London 2013

Lluís Brotons & Miquel de CáceresLluís Brotons & Miquel de Cáceres

• Species distribution models (SDMs) and biodiversity projections to future environmental conditions… and why they fail (sometimes…)

• Challenges of building biodiversity projections. Including multiple environmental pressures and matching models to ecological processes.

• Biodiversity projections in Mediterranean dynamic landscapes. Fire regimes and the indirect effects of climate change on trees and birds.

Talk outline

• Objective: anticipate potential impacts of global change on biodiversity distribution patterns.

• Temporal and spatial projections SDMs have had an enormous influence in global change science.

• They have allowed predictions of large scale biodiversity changes using simple and widely available data!!!!

• Climate change and invasive species impact at large spatial scales influential applications…

Projecting distribution dynamics

Gil-Tena et al. 2009. Global Change Biology 15:474-Gil-Tena et al. 2009. Global Change Biology 15:474-485.485.

Global change and biodiversity.

• SDMs summarise, through simple statistical relationships, very complex, interacting ecological processes.

• When spatial dynamics are to be predicted SDMs may perform poorly because they are unlikely to adequately capture relevant processes at all spatial scales.

• Challenge: how to adequately integrate ecological and environmental processes relevant to distribution changes?

What’s the problem… and the challenge

Exte

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dyn

amic

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Static

Clim

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scen

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Projecting distribution dynamics

Impo

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Projecting distribution dynamics

Exte

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dyn

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Static

Hab

itat

filt

erin

g

Clim

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scen

ario

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Intrinsic

Internal dynamics

Population dynamicsDispersal

Projecting distribution dynamics

Exte

rnal

dyn

amic

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Static

Clim

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scen

ario

sIm

posed

Hab

itat

filt

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Species interactions

Projecting distribution dynamics

Exte

rnal

dyn

amic

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Static

Clim

ate

scen

ario

s

Intrinsic

Internal dynamics

Population dynamicsDispersal

Impo

sed

Hab

itat

filt

erin

g

Species interactions

EvolutionPhysiology

Phenotypic plasticity

Projecting distribution dynamics

Exte

rnal

dyn

amic

s

Static

Clim

ate

scen

ario

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Intrinsic

Internal dynamics

Population dynamicsDispersal

Impo

sed

Hab

itat

filt

erin

g

Global change and biodiversity.

Climate change

Disturbance regimes

Land use changes/managem

ent

Invasive species

Biodiversity

Mediterranean landscapes

Novel, changing fire regimes

Global change and biodiversity.

Biodiversity (trees, birds)Climate

change

Fire

Land abandonment

Invasive species

Relationships pressures - biodiversity

Climate Land use Fire Trees Birds

Climate

Land use

Fire

Trees

Birds

Climate Land use Fire Trees Birds

Climate

Land use

Fire

Trees

Birds

Relationships pressures - biodiversity

Climate Land use Fire Trees Birds

Climate

Land use

Fire

Trees

Birds

Relationships pressures - biodiversity

Climate Land use Fire Trees Birds

Climate

Land use

Fire

Trees

Birds

Relationships pressures - biodiversity

Landscape dynamics model(100 m, 1 year step)

Fire submodel Vegetation submodel

Brotons et al. (2013) PLoS ONE 8(5): e62392Brotons et al. (2013) PLoS ONE 8(5): e62392

- Fire regime- Ignition probability- Fire spread model- Elevation

- Tree dominance- Orientation- Bioclimatic region.

Succession

FirePost-fire regeneration

Pinus halepensisP. nigraP. pineaP. sylvestrisQuercus suberOtros Q.Q. ilexOtras coníferas

Otras especiesMatorralPradosCultivosAguaSuelo urbanoSuelo desnudo

Landscape and tree modelling

Landscape and tree modelling

• We know from previous studies that fire impact has an important effect on species distribution via habitat filtering.

• New habitat constrained by dispersal limitations.

Bird responses to dynamic landscapes.

Vallecillo, S. et al. 2009. Ecological Applications.Vallecillo, S. et al. 2009. Ecological Applications.

Brotons, et al. 2008. Journal of Applied Ecology.Brotons, et al. 2008. Journal of Applied Ecology.

Non-spatial parameters

Static spatial inputs

Dynamic spatial inputs

Combining dynamic landscape models and species distribution models

LANDSCAPE DYNAMICS

Landscape modelPerturbation and

vegetation processes

DYNAMIC LANDSCAPE LAYERS (dominant tree species)

DYNAMIC SPECIES DISTRIBUTION MODEL

DYNAMIC SPECIES DISTRIBUTION RESPONSES(Bird occupancy)

Species potential distributionHabitat model

Species habitatcoefficients

Dispersal parameters

Dynamic, processbased model (dispersal)

Hybrid metamodelling.

Changes in fire regime.

Brotons et al. (2013) PLoS ONE 8(5): e62392Brotons et al. (2013) PLoS ONE 8(5): e62392

Fire supression treatments

Changes in forest type.

De Cáceres & Brotons. (2013) J. Biog.De Cáceres & Brotons. (2013) J. Biog.

Changes in forest type.

De Cáceres & Brotons. (2013) J. Biog.De Cáceres & Brotons. (2013) J. Biog.

Changes in forest type.

De Cáceres & Brotons. (2013) J. Biog.De Cáceres & Brotons. (2013) J. Biog.

Changes in bird communities.

De Cáceres & Brotons. (2013) J. Biog.De Cáceres & Brotons. (2013) J. Biog.

v v v

vv

• Better matching objectives, ecological processes and key environmental pressures and integration when buiding biodiversity scenarios.

• Keep models simple and look for a way around to implement your processes externally.

• Identify key internal processes (feedbacks) relevant to your context and link them to your external processes via meta-modelling.

• Keep in mind data availability when designing predictive studies.

How to move from here…

• In dynamic landscapes such as the Mediterranean, indirect climate change effects can have major impact via changes in disturbance regimes.

• Initial condition and lags in past environmental pressures (land abandonment) important in determining future changes.

• Scenarios of future biodiversity change should account for major drivers of environmental change (including key indirect pathways and relevant feedbacks) at regional scales.

• This is a major challenge!!!

How to move from here…

THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION

• Collaborators:

Mariee Josée Fortin

Andrew Fall

Núria Aquilué

Núria Roura- Pascual

Javier Retana

Lluís Coll