100 % duurzame elektriciteit in 2050. hoe matchen we vraag en

100% duurzame energie in 2050 –hoe matchen we vraag en aanbod?

Kornelis Blok24/04/2014

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Inzet elektriciteitscentrales in Duitsland(derde week april, 2013)

24/04/2014

Source: Bruno Burger, Fraunhofer ISE, 2013

Kornelis Blok2

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A scenario for 2030 (Germany)

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Nabe et al., Ecofys, 2012, Preisauswirkungen der Erneuerbaren Energien auf den deutschen Strommarkt

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Power plant dispatch and prices in 2030 (week 35/36)

24/04/2014 Kornelis Blok4

Nabe et al., Ecofys, 2012, Preisauswirkungen der Erneuerbaren Energien auf den deutschen Strommarkt

© ECOFYS | |

Impact of limited grid expansion in Germany 2030

24/04/2014 Kornelis Blok

Generation 2030

Ecofys 2013 Impacts of restricted transmission grid expansion in Germany

H: high interconnection capabilitiesL: low interconnection capabilities

5

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Impact of limited grid expansion in Germany 2030

H: high interconnection capabilitiesL: low interconnection capabilities

24/04/2014 Kornelis Blok

Generation 2030

Ecofys 2013 Impacts of restricted transmission grid expansion in Germany

6

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Flexibility options for power systems

System

Energy Storage

Supply

Net-work

Demand

24/04/20147 Kornelis Blok

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Two case studies for 2050

1. Germany only– using excesses for hydrogen and methane production – By Fraunhofer IWES, Kassel

2. Europe wide– making maximum use of a strong European grid– By Fraunhofer ISI, Karlsruhe

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Two case studies for 2050

1. Germany only– using excesses for hydrogen and methane production – By Fraunhofer IWES, Kassel

2. Europe wide– making maximum use of a strong European grid– By Fraunhofer ISI, Karlsruhe

24/04/2014 Kornelis Blok9

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Renewable energy production and load pattern

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Energy Target 2050: 100% Renewable Energy Supply, Fraunhofer-IWES, 2010

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Renewable energy production and load pattern

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Energy Target 2050: 100% Renewable Energy Supply, Fraunhofer-IWES, 2010

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German power system, 2050

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Energy Target 2050: 100% Renewable Energy Supply, Fraunhofer-IWES, 2010

© ECOFYS | |

Electricity balance 2050

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Energy Target 2050: 100% Renewable Energy Supply, Fraunhofer-IWES, 2010

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Two case studies for 2050

1. Germany only– using excesses for hydrogen and methane production – By Fraunhofer IWES, Kassel

2. Europe wide– making maximum use of a strong European grid– By Fraunhofer ISI, Karlsruhe

24/04/2014 Kornelis Blok14

© ECOFYS | |

Additional interconnector capacity (scenario A)

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Fraunhofer ISI 2011, Tangible ways towards climate protection in the EU

© ECOFYS | |

Generation potential of renewables in the EU

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Fraunhofer ISI 2011, Tangible ways towards climate protection in the EU

© ECOFYS | |

Germany’s (possible) load curve and supply in 2050, Week 42

Calculation based on the PowerAce model

Fraunhofer ISI 2011, Tangible ways towards climate protection in the EU

© ECOFYS | |

Spains’s (possible) load curve and supply in 2050, Week 27

Calculation based on the PowerAce model

Fraunhofer ISI 2011, Tangible ways towards climate protection in the EU

© ECOFYS | |

Development of renewable electricity curtailment

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Fraunhofer ISI 2011, Tangible ways towards climate protection in the EU

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Development of conventional generation (scenario A)

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Fraunhofer ISI 2011, Tangible ways towards climate protection in the EU

© ECOFYS | |

Development of installed conventional capacity (scenario A)

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Fraunhofer ISI 2011, Tangible ways towards climate protection in the EU

© ECOFYS | |

Development of storage capacity

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Fraunhofer ISI 2011, Tangible ways towards climate protection in the EU

© ECOFYS | |

Development of interconnector capacity

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Fraunhofer ISI 2011, Tangible ways towards climate protection in the EU

© ECOFYS | |

Flexibility options for power systems

System

Energy Storage

Supply

Net-work

Demand

24/04/201424 Kornelis Blok

© ECOFYS | |

Thank you!

Prof. dr. Kornelis BlokWetenschappelijk directeur

EcofysKanaalweg 15-G3526 KL Utrecht

Telefoon: 030-6623399 E-mail: k.blok@ecofys.comTwitter: @kornelisblok

www.ecofys.com

11/12/2013 Prof. dr. Kornelis Blok25

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sustainable energy for everyone

11/12/2013 Prof. dr. Kornelis Blok26

© ECOFYS | |

Development of average electricity production costs

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Fraunhofer ISI 2011, Tangible ways towards climate protection in the EU

© ECOFYS | |

Vermogensduurkromme elektriciteitsoverschot

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K. Blok 1984, Onbeperkt houdbaar, Stichting Natuur en Milieu

2000 4000 hours

GW