1 gte winter outlook 2007 brussels, january 8 th 2008 paolo mosa gte vice-president chairman of the...

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GTE Winter Outlook 2007

Brussels, January 8th 2008

Paolo MosaGTE Vice-President Chairman of the GTE Transparency WG

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Background

Updated results

Additional findings

Table of contents

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Background

GTE WO presented to GCG on 25th October for

the first time

The study showed the existence of a

capacity/demand balance at EU level: normal cold conditions

exceptional cold conditions

GTE invited to develop further analysis: considering the depletion of national productions

identifying possible internal bottlenecks

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Background

Updated results

Additional findings

Table of contents

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Data improvements

Higher number of participating countries

passing from 19 to 21 countries

National production figures reviewed to consider

depletion of fields

previous year flows in substitution of max tech capacity

Some figures updated by 5 countries on the basis of

refined assumptions

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Involved CountriesEU members – data

EU members – no data

Non EU members

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Updated European Balance

EU ''CAPACITY - DEMAND BALANCE'' (GWh/d)

TOTAL CAPACITY INTERCONNECTED WITH IMPORT & LNG 14.634

TOTAL NATIONAL PRODUCTION 9.255

TOTAL STORAGE 11.702

35.591

TOTAL MARKET (NORMAL CONDITIONS) 27.419

TOTAL MARKET (EXCEPTIONAL CONDITIONS) 32.803

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Background

Updated results

Additional findings

Table of contents

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Single country balances normal cold conditions

exceptional cold conditions

Integrated EU flow patterns normal cold conditions

exceptional cold conditions

Additional findings

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Single country balance

Import capacity at entry points

National production past flows*

+

Storage send out capacity**

+

+

Exit capacity to other countries

Market demand forecast

-

-

Single Country balance=

in normal condition in exceptional condition

in normal condition in exceptional condition

* to take into account the depletion of production fields** considering the decrease of performances during the winter

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Normal Conditions – Single country balancesBalance ≥ 5%

0% < Balance < 5%

Balance ≤ 0%

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Normal conditions vs. Exceptional conditions

10% < (E/N) < 30%

No difference

(E/N) ≤ 10%

(E/N) ≥ 30%

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Exceptional Conditions – Single country balances

- 5% < Balance < 0%

Balance ≤ -5%

Balance ≥ 0%

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Single country balances vs Integrated EU flow patterns

3 critical single

country balances

experienced in normal

conditions

?

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Integrated EU flow patterns

Identification of at least one pattern of flows between EU

countries that respects the following conditions

Flows from non EU countries ≤ Entry point capacities

Flows between countries ≤ IPs capacities

Flows from storages ≤ send out capacity*

Flows from national productions ≤ past winter flows

Flows in exit from each country = national intakes – mkt demand

* taking into account the decrease of performances during the winter

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Integrated EU flow pattern – Normal condition

93%ST: 85%

NP: 65%

90%68%

NP: 93%

75% ST: 92% 86% 85%ST: 91% NP: 78%

ST: 78%

80% 72% 78%73% 69%

77%13% NP: 64% 91% 78%

ST: 60% 44%46% ST: 80%

ST: 70% 84%89% 78% 41% 82% ST: 85%

81% NP: 72% 98%75% ST: 71% 78%

40% 48% 97%53% 81% NP: 90%

ST: 80%

NP: 75% 67% 99% NP: 98%

ST: 74% 72% ST: 98%

96%80% 80%

45%NP: 80%

ST: 51% ST: 80% 37%ST:

ST: 68%

53%

80%36%

50% 81%

N FI N

ES

EST

LT

LV

D

CZ

S

I

UK

P

F

DK

HU

SK

AU

SI

CH

LUX

B

NL

GR

BU

RO

PL

HR

SR

BY

UA

I E

Entry/Exit flows from/to non EU countries

Entry/Exit flows between EU countries

NP:

ST:

Flows from National Production

Flows from Storage

FIGURE LEGEND

* IPs capacities are aggregated values (lesser of rule applies)

% Utilization ratio of the infrastructure

Utilization ratio < max reference value

Utilization ratio = max reference value

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Integrated EU flow pattern – Exceptional condition93%

ST: 62%NP: 100%

100%91%

NP: 93%

82% ST: 94% 99% 94%ST: 90%

NP: 100%

100% 100% ST: 87% 87%98% 12%

97%38% NP: 100% 99% 98%

ST: 68% 58%94% ST: 100%

ST: 87% 94%85% 99% 88% 96% ST: 93%

55% NP: 100% 100%100% ST: 64% 87%

40% 91% 92%80% 100% NP: 100%

ST: 96%

NP: 100% 100%ST: 100% 100% NP: 100%

90% 100% ST: 100%

85% 95%91%

NP: 100%

ST: 15% ST: 99% 16%ST:

ST: 16%

13%

100%100%

93% 89%

ES

EST

LT

LV

D

CZ

S

I

UK

P

F

N

DK

HU

SK

AU

SI

CH

LUX

B

NL

FI N

GR

BU

RO

PL

HR

SR

BY

UA

I EI EEntry/Exit flows from/to non EU countries

Entry/Exit flows between EU countries

NP:

ST:

Flows from National Production

Flows from Storage

FIGURE LEGEND

* IPs capacities are aggregated values (lesser of rule applies)

% Utilization ratio of the infrastructure

Utilization ratio < max reference value

Utilization ratio = max reference value

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Key findings

3 critical single country balances in normal cold conditions

Out of balance at national level solved considering flow patterns resulting from EU network integration

Flexibility already existing inside countries and in IPs both in normal and exceptional cold conditions

Future investments to follow increase in market demand and to improve flexibility at IPs