1 current and future needs of numerical weather prediction guidance at the noaa aviation weather...
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Current and Future needs of Numerical Weather
Prediction Guidance at the NOAA Aviation Weather
Center
Jason LevitTechniques Development Meteorologist
Aviation Weather CenterKansas City, MO
Jason.Levit@noaa.gov
Current and Future needs of Numerical Weather
Prediction Guidance at the NOAA Aviation Weather
Center
Jason LevitTechniques Development Meteorologist
Aviation Weather CenterKansas City, MO
Jason.Levit@noaa.gov
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AWC Future NWP GuidanceAWC Future NWP Guidance
NAM
GFS
FIM
SREFWRF RR
UKMET
VSREF HRRR
SPC ARW
HIRES ARW
HIRES NMM
HRRRe
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Aviation Weather Testbed Support
Aviation Weather Testbed Support
AWRP
FIP/CIP
GTG
High Resolutio
n Guidance
Spring Experiment
Operational Bridging
Traffic Impact
Convective Initiation
Ensembles
Calibration
ECFP Enhancement
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High Resolution Model Guidance
High Resolution Model Guidance
10K
20K
30K
Boundary Layer
• Convective initiation• Ceiling and visibility• Low-level turbulence• Icing
• Improved boundary layer structure from mixed model/mixed physics ensembles
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High Resolution Model Guidance
High Resolution Model Guidance
10K
20K
30K
Mid Atmosphere
• Microphysics!
• Detailed icing• Improved mountain wave turbulence
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High Resolution Model Guidance
High Resolution Model Guidance
10K
20K
30K Convection
• Storm intensity/Storm top• Radar data assimilation• Ensembles• Day 2 and Day 3 planning (ECFP)
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Ensemble GuidanceEnsemble Guidance
High Resolution
(4km)Calibration
Probabilistic
Forecasts
Improved user tools and forecaster workflow
Data Volume/Archiv
e
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Volcanic Ash Model Guidance
Volcanic Ash Model Guidance
• FIM• HYSPLIT• Improved ash concentration• Improved chemical species concentration
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