% change year on year % change in house loans2003q1-2006q4 · 743. fiscal federalism in belgium:...
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117
図 4.5. テイラールールからの逸脱と住宅供給活動
AUT
BEL
FIN
FRA
DEU
GRCIRL
ITA
LUX
NLDPRT
ESP
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
-20 0 20 40 60 80 100
Cumulated deviations from a Taylor rule, 2001Q3-2006Q4
% change in house loans 2003Q1-2006Q4
AUT
BEL
FIN FRA
DEU
GRC
IRL
ITA
NLD
ESP
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
-20 0 20 40 60 80 100
Cumulated deviations from a Taylor rule, 2001Q3-2006Q4
Change in housing investment as % of GDP, 2001Q1-2006Q4
Source: Ahrend et al. (2008).
図 4.6. 転換点前後の資産価格
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
-8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
High house price path Middle house price path
Low house price path
% change year on year
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
-8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
High stock market path Middle stock market path
Low stock market path
Note: The evolution of real house prices and real stock market indices just prior to and after when the economy enters a
(technical) recession are displayed in the two panels. The middle, high and low paths are the median, upper quintile and
lower quintile of the observations for all OECD countries.
Source: OECD Economic Outlook 86 database.
118
図 4.7. コアインフレ率・住宅価格に調整したコアインフレ率
United States
Calibrated on the period 1965-1985 Calibrated on the period 1985-2005
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08
Actual
Predicted
% growth year-on-year
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08
Actual
Predicted
% growth year-on-year
Note: The core inflation adjustment for house price movements is based on the estimates from a Kalman filter (the one
step ahead predicted signal).
Source: OECD Economic Outlook 86 database.
図 5.1. 資本市場の規模
% of GDP
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
Euro area UK Japan USA
1990-94 2000-05
Note: The figures are calculated as the sum of stock market capitalisation, private sector credit and private domestic debt
securities issuance as a percentage of GDP.
Source: Hartmann et al. (2007).
119
図 5.2. OECD 諸国の実体経済と金融部門の循環
Unweighted average of OECD countries
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1946
1949
1952
1955
1958
1961
1964
1967
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
Real GDP growth (LHS)
Deviation from trend of the bank asset to GDP ratio (RHS)
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1946
1949
1952
1955
1958
1961
1964
1967
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
Real GDP growth
Change (p.p.) in the bank asset to GDP ratio
Notes: OECD staff calculations based on data provided by Alan M. Taylor (Schularick and Taylor, 2009). The series
plotted are arithmetic averages of individual series of the following countries: Australia, Canada, Switzerland, Germany,
Denmark, Spain, France, UK, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, US. GDP growth is the rate of growth of real GDP,
deviation from trend of the bank asset/GDP ratio is the deviation of the bank asset/GDP ratio from its trend (trend is
computed using the HP filter). The series are 3-year moving averages. Banking assets are defined as total domestic
currency assets of banks and banking institutions.
Source: Schularick and Taylor (2009) and OECD Economic Outlook 86 database.
図 5.3. 銀行部門の順景気循環:ローリングウィンドウによる予測値
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1946 1
957
1949 1
960
1952 1
963
1955 1
966
1958 1
969
1961 1
972
1964 1
975
1967 1
978
1970 1
981
1973 1
984
1976 1
987
1979 1
990
1982 1
993
1985 1
996
1988 1
999
1991 2
002
1994 2
005
1997 2
008
Bank asset to GDP ratio (LHS)
Coefficient estimates (RHS)
Note: Coefficient estimates are displayed only if they are statistically significant. The estimations are performed using
difference GMM. The percentage point change in the bank asset/GDP ratio is the dependent variable and GDP growth
and lagged changes in percentage points of the bank asset to GDP ratio are the independent variables. The data points
for bank asset-to-GDP ratio refer to the end of the period. The bank asset-to-GDP ratio is calculated as the unweighted
average of the ratio of 13 OECD countries.
Source: Schularick and Taylor (2009) and OECD Economic Outlook 86 database.
120
図 5.4. 株式市場の変動性と社債スプレッドの順景気循環的性質
United States, 1999-2010
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
GDP growth (LHS) VIX index (RHS)
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
0
2
4
6
8
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
GDP growth (LHS)
AAA spread (RHS)
BBB spread (RHS)
Notes: The spread is for yields of corporate AAA or BBB 5-7 or 7-10 year bonds over the government bond yield.
The VIX index is a market-based measure of stock-market volatility.Source: OECD Economic Outlook 86 database,
Chicago Board Options Exchange and Datastream.
図 5.5. OECD 諸国の資本バッファー
Capital adequacy ratio, 2007
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
SWE
FRA
PR
T
AU
S
HU
N
ITA
ESP
IRL
BEL
GR
C
CZE
NO
R
PO
L
ISL
CH
E
CA
N
DN
K
KO
R
JAP
GB
R
AU
T
SVK
USA
DEU
NLD
LUX
FIN
TUR
Notes: The figures are not fully comparable because of differences in national regulation.
Source: IMF.
121
図 6.1. 総合的な PMR スコア
2008
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
USA
GB
RC
AN
NLD IS
LD
NK
ESP
JAP
NO
RFI
NA
US
NZL
CH
EH
UN
SWE
DEU
AU
TIT
AB
ELP
RT
FRA
KO
RLU
XC
ZEM
EXTU
RP
OL
OECD Average
Note: Index scale from 0-6 from least to most restrictive. Countries are ranked according to the indicator score on
aggregate.
Source: OECD Product Market Regulation Database.
122
図 6.2. 経常不動産課税
2008, % of GDP
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
BEL
LUX
GR
CC
ZEC
HE
MEX
TUR
AU
TH
UN
NO
RSV
KD
EU FIN
ITA
ESP
PR
TIR
LSW
EK
OR
PO
LD
NK
AU
SIS
LN
ZL JAP
FRA
CA
NU
SAG
BR
Note: Data for Australia, Greece, Mexico and Poland refer to 2007.
Source: OECD Tax Revenue Database.
123
図 7.1. ショックに直面した場合の財政・金融政策に対する安全域
Panel A. Safety margins for fiscal policy Panel B. Safety margins for monetary
policy
Note: The figure shows the distribution of the government deficit and the interest rate following standard shocks either
with a zero initial debt level or one corresponding to 60% of GDP.
124
図 7.2. 価格の硬直性の増大による金融・財政政策に対する安全域
Panel A. Safety margins for fiscal policy Panel B. Safety margins for monetary
policy
125
図 7.3. 労働力供給の弾力性の向上による金融・財政政策に対する安全域
Panel A. Safety margins for fiscal policy Panel B. Safety margins for monetary
policy
126
WORKING PAPERS
The full series of Economics Department Working Papers can be consulted at
www.oecd.org/eco/working_papers/
759. Exports and property prices in France: are they connected?
(April 2010) by Balázs Égert and Rafał Kierzenkowski
758. Further Advancing Pro-Growth Tax and Benefit Reform in the Czech Republic
(April 2010) by Zdeněk Hrdlička, Margaret Morgan, David Prušvic,
William Tompson and Laura Vartia.
757. Advancing structural reforms in OECD countries: Lessons from twenty case
studies
(April 2010) by William Tompson and Thai-Thanh Dang
756. Labour markets and the crisis
(April 2010)
755. Long-term growth and policy challenges in the large emerging economies
(March 2010) by Paul Conway, Sean Dougherty and Artur Radziwill
754. Explaining household saving rates in G7 countries: implications for Germany
(February 2010) by Felix Hüfner and Isabell Koske
753. Monetary policy responses to the crisis and exit strategies
(February 2010) by Makoto Minegishi and Boris Cournède
752. Sub-central governments and the economic crisis: impact and policy responses
(February 2010) by Hansjörg Blöchliger, Claire Charbit, José Maria Pinero
Campos and Camila Vammalle
751. Improving China’s health care system
(January 2010) by Richard Herd, Yu-Wei Hu and Vincent Koen
127
750. Providing greater old-age security in China
(January 2010) by Richard Herd, Yu-Wei Hu and Vincent Koen
749. China’s labour market in transition: job creation, migration and regulation
(January 2010) by Richard Herd, Vincent Koen and Anders Reutersward
748. A pause in the growth of inequality in China?
(January 2010) by Richard Herd
747. China’s financial sector reforms
(January 2010) by Richard Herd, Charles Pigott and Sam Hill
746. A bird’s eye view of OECD housing markets
(January 2010) by Christophe André
128
745. The automobile industry in and beyond the crisis
(January 2010) by David Haugh, Annabelle Mourougane and Olivier Chatal
744 Towards a flexible exchange rate policy in Russia
(December 2009) by Roland Beck and Geoff Barnard
743. Fiscal federalism in Belgium: Challenges and possible improvements
(December 2009) by Willi Leibfritz
742. Product Market Regulation in Russia
(December 2009) by Paul Conway, Tatiana Lysenko and Geoff Barnard
741. How to reform the Belgian tax system to enhance economic growth
(December 2009) by Jens Høj
740. Improving the policy framework in Japan to address climate change
(December 2009) by Randall S. Jones and Byungseo Yoo
739. Health-care reform in Japan: controlling costs, improving quality and ensuring
equity
(December 2009) by Randall S. Jones
738. Financial stability: overcoming the crisis and improving the efficiency of the
banking sector in Japan
(December 2009) by Randall S. Jones and Masahiko Tsutsumi
737. Recent Oil Price Movements– Forces and Policy Issues
(December 2009) by Eckhard Wurzel, Luke Willard and Patrice Ollivaud
736. Promoting competition to strengthen economic growth in Belgium
(December 2009) by Tomasz Koźluk
735. Prudential Regulation And Competition In Financial Markets
(November 2009) by Rüdiger Ahrend, Jens Arnold and Fabrice Murtin
734. Keeping slovénian public finances on a sustainable path
129
(October 2009) Pierre Beynet and Willi Leibfritz
733. Pedal to the metal: Structural reforms to boost long-term growth in Mexico and
spur recovery from the crisis
(October 2009) David Haugh and Agustin Redonda
732. Achieving higher performance: Enhancing spending efficiency in health and
education in Mexico
(October 2009) Cyrille Schwellnus
731. Russia’s long and winding road to a more efficient and resilient banking sector
(October 2009) Geoff Barnard
730. How do institutions affect structural unemployment in times of crises?
(October 2009) Davide Furceri and Annabelle Mourougane
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