a safer alternative: cul-de-sacs and crime in durham, nc chris whittaker
Post on 16-Dec-2015
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Introduction
The cul-de-sac is a hallmark of suburban sprawl
Advantages: Development of awkward land plots Privacy Less traffic Lower passing vehicle speed
Disadvantages: Disconnected communities Encourage automobile use Produce urban congestion elsewhere Inefficient provision of public goods
Why cul-de-sacs?
Popular perception of lower crime Criminals avoid areas with only one exit Community policing
Little academic research exists
It is difficult to untangle socioeconomic variables from the spatial layout of these communities
However, it remains a useful exercise to conduct natural experiments
Methodology
Identified communities using Google Maps and Zillow
Created 36 cul-de-sac and two-way street pairings
Compared pairings with ~15,000 pieces of criminal activity data
Narrowed to single-family dwellings (note: possible townhomes, though largely removed)
Divided crime into three categories: burglary, larceny and assault
Case Study: Pearson Dr. vs. Paladin Ct.
Pearson Drive (~20 homes): 7 crimes committed 5 Burglary/Breaking and Entering 1 Simple Assault 1 Larceny
Paladin Court (8 homes): 1 crime committed 1 Burglary/Breaking and Entering
Case Study: Bernice St. vs. S Plum St.
S Plum Street (~39 homes): 5 crimes committed 4 Burglary/Breaking and Entering 1 Aggravated Assault
Bernice Street (~23 homes): 2 crimes committed 2 Burglary/Breaking and Entering
Case Study: Wyman Pl., Wise Pl., Brownlee Pl. vs. Crowell St.
Crowell Street (~21 homes): 6 crimes committed 2 Theft from a motor vehicle 1 Simple Assault 1 All Other Larceny 1 Burglary/Breaking and Entering 1 Theft from a Building
Wise Place, Wyman Place, and Brownlee Place (~17 homes): 0 crimes committed
1818 Crowell Street
Theft from a motor vehicle (larceny) on 4/5/12
Theft from a building (larceny) on 11/1/12
Discussion
Housing volume and lot size concerns
Selection bias
Spatial permeability
Affluence
Ultimately, correlation does not prove causality
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