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( ) 1. 1. 1. 1. 2000 . , . , (peak oil) , , . : , , . 3.11 . ,

. (1) (2) (CCS, ) --> , . (PNG) . PNG LNG (gassification) . PNG , . PNG , , , . PNG /1) . .

8. PNG , , , . , , , (UGSS, Unified Gas Supply System) . PNG , , , , LNG PNG . PNG , (upgrade) . . , (1) , (2) . PNG , PNG.

2. 2. 2. 2. (1) : : , . (1) (2) . (): , , . (1) 4 () . 1) 60 : 2) 70-80 : , NOC . 3) 90 -2000 : , , , , OPEC . 4) 20002010 : .

9 OPEC . , . , . 90 OPEC , OPEC . 2000, . , , () . : 2011 IPCC SRREN(Special Report on Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation) . , , , , , 6 , . . . (1) , (2) . : . . / , , . , . (1) (2) ( + + + ) -->. , .(2) : , , . (conventional) ,

10

1 36.10 3.032 24.41 7.723 21.92 0.384 19.28 0.345 13.73 -6 11.21 3.117 10.99 1.768 8.21 1.559 6.54 4.5010 6.40 0.3711 5.30 0.1612 5.10 0.01

. 2008((GECF, Gas Exporting Countries Forum) . . : 2000(unconventional gas), (shale gas) . . LNG , LNG . . , . : , , , , , 60 . , .

. < > ( : )

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.(Gazprom, GDF, ENI, ) (1)

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, ( , , ) (2) , EU , . : , , . (1) , , , . , . (2) , , , . , . 90. (3) : , (IEA) (the golden age of natural gas), 2012 5 (Golden Rules for a Golden Age of Gas) . ,

. PNG LNG . (?) , , ,

. --> . PNG , LNG , (basic

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load) PNG .3. 3. 3. 3. (1) PNG PNG, . (1) (2) / . ( ): PNG, . (1) ( PNG), (LNG) , . (2)

, . (3) , , . PNG ,

. ( ): () , . () LNG .

. PNG. ( - ): PNG( , ). LNG. . PNG .

. .

13

( - ): PNG , . (1) . 10 bcm . . (2) , . PNG , (country risk).

(2) PNG : , , : (1) -(Yukos) CNPC . 1995 60% (Aktobemunaigaz) , (Angarsk) , () . 1998(). 2001 72,260 km 17.(2005 40 -60 ) (2) - 2001 7 (Transneft)(Nakhodka) . 4,000 km , 50 . 100 , , . (3) - , 2002 , 2003

. 2003 3 - , .

14

- -() 4,000km 1,700km, 2,260km 52 25 2008 2005 100b/d(5000t/y) 40b/d(2000t)->60b/d(3000t/d) ( ) , 2001 1998, , CNPC

, ( );

() () ,

,

(90%->70%)

ESPO: (ESPO, The Eastern Siberia-Pacific Ocean oil pipeline) . - (ESPO)80 , 4770 km . ESPO-1 (- , 2757km) 2006 4 2009 12 . ESPO-2 ( - , 1963km) 2014. 2011 ESPO 15 . UGSS: (UGSS) . (1) PNG ( )- 450 km, 4,100 km , ( 2000 30 ). 96 98 7 . , , 32000 . , , 32002 10 () . - - - - - - 3,600 km. -- - - - 567 km---- - - - 536 km-- .

15

, . (2) UGSS: , PNG , 2005 PNG, UGSS . - . 2013-2016, (UGSS) . . Skovorodino, Blagovesh-chensk Dalnerechensk , (subsea)- - . LNG .

< UGSS (2008)>

PNG: . . 1990 . 2004CNPC , 3,900 Km 12.4 Bcm. 2004 25,870 Km. .

16

(3) UGSS + . , . -(ESPO, UGSS). , . . , . PNG . , , , , , . . 2011 , MOU/

17

. PNG LNG . PNG , , LNG, CNG . (4) PNG . , PNG . (1) - , PNG .

. , . (2) LNG: PNG LNG . . LNG , , LNG . (3) : PNG . ---- . , -, . 3 -- , , --, . , . PNG , , PNG. LNG,

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. PNG. (1) . . (2) PNG. PNG. (3) PNG , . PNG, . 4. 4. 4. 4. : : : : 2011 1 38.5%, (LNG) 17.5%, (, ) 28.8%, 12.2%, 2.9% . , . 30.9%, 38.8%, LNG 21.8%, 4.8% , , . (CCS). . , (R&D, ), (back end cost, / , , ) , ( ) . 1 (32.7%), (11%) . CNG , LNG .

19

5. 5. 5. 5. : : : : PNG. , , , . , . , , (1) , , (2) , . ,

. . . , (needs) . , . , , , , , , , . , , , . . . , , , , . , .

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. , , , , , . , , , . , (ODA), , , , . .

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6. 6. 6. 6. : : : : PNG , , , . , , , 4, . , , . , . . (bandwagon) , , , , 4 , 6 . 6 , , , , , 5 . , (take-off). . 6 . . , , . , , . , , , . . .

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1) (nexus) a.

/ / / // / . .

. 19 . . .

. 3 . .( ) (dislocatins) . . 90 , ,

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. ' '. 10

. the rise of the rest', 'post American world', 'second world' . .1) , (interregionalism). , (security dilemma)(insecurity dilemma) . , . ( ) .

. (relative gains) (absolute gains) (interest)

. b. :

. 1) Bjrn Hettne, 2010, Development and Security: Origins and Future," Security Dialogue, vol. 41, no.2, pp. 35-50

25

, .2) .3)

?, (spill over) .

, ( )( ) . , .4)

. c.

2) Katherine Barbieri & Gerald Schneider, Globalization and Peace: Assessing New Directions in the Study of Trade and Conflict, Journal of Peace Research, vol. 36, no. 4 (1999), p. 390.3) , , p. 141.4) , , pp. 71~72.

26

. . . PNG LNG . .

(insecurity) . . (impossible trinity) . ( ) 3.

. , , . . (recognition) .

2) (cross-border cooperation) : (region-building) (intrusive regionalism). (sub-regionalism or micro- regionalism)))) . . (micro regions). . . (growth polygons;

27

growth triangle)5) (development corridors) , . (regionness), (cohesion) (actorness)6).

. , -, , 7) . ( (pilot project) .) - 8).9) . . (Acharya)(integrative regionalism) , (intrusive regionalism) .

. . . , , .10)

5) (GMS) . Ramgopal Agarwala and Brahm Prakash, Regional Cooperation in Asia, ERD Working Paper no. 28 (2002), pp. 2~5 .6) Bjrn Hettne, Beyond The New Regionalism, New Political Economy, vol. 10, no. 4 (2005), pp. 557~558.7) (micro-regionalism) . , : , 5 2 (2001)8) -- , , . , , 27 2 (2006), p. 324.9) , 2008, ,12 1, pp.162-16610), 2010, ,28 3, pp.113-115

28

. .11) , , , (sea lane) , . 21

. 3)

. . 2002 2 . . ,

. (regionness).

11) Nodari Simonia and Victor Sumsky, 2012, "As an APEC Summit Nears, So Does a Moment of Truth For Putin and Russia in Asia," Globa Globa Globa Globa Asia, Asia, Asia, Asia, vol.7. no.2

29

2. 2. 2. 2. 1)

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. 9.19 . . . . .

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expanding (proliferation). (modernization) . 2013. 2) 14)

, . . , , . ., . NPT , . . . ( , ) NPT ., . NPT IAEA, IAEA . , . , ,

14) , 2012,

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. . 3, , -, - - , , . , . 2011 10 13- (55km) 12 . ( : M. ) .3)

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[[[[ 1]1]1]1]

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. 30% . : . , , . . 5 . . 2005 9.19. 7 . . . 2011 8 -. 2012 4 17 . . . 9 6 3 . (APEC) . . 8 12 1 2 . . . . , 3 MOU. . . . .

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, , , .

1.1.1.1. , , . 19 , , , 20. , Right of Way (R.O.W). 20m , , 1 2-3km Spread . -Spread : () (Grading)-(stringing & bending)- (trenching)- (girth-welding)- (inspection)-()(coating & Wrapping)-(Lowering-in)- (backfilling)- , (crossing & tie-ins)- (hydralic-test), (cleaning) - , . , , . ,

48

2. 2. 2. 2. 1) 90% , 618m 3.4 . , . 742m 200m 78% . 447km. 92% . , , , . - , . - , ,

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49

- - , - - -- - - 1 - 1 , - 2. - 1, 1 2 . 1 6km 2 , 1 26km . 1 318km, - 503km, - 903km 1. 3) - 2001 7. - 2001 8 4 () : ,

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50

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51

[[[[ 3] 3] 3] 3] ( )

1. , . 2. PNG . 2011 9 . 2012 4 9, 2017 1 . 2012 9 8 . . PNG 10bcm(100, 750 ) . 2012 1 LNG 2017 350 , LNG canada 20% 600 . 1/4 , PNG. .

. 2009 -17. - , , - . . - . , 2011 8 24 , "

" . 3 .

52

2011 9 15(MOU) . . PNG , , PNG LNG, .3. , . , , . . PNG , 4 . PNG6 . . 4. . . , , , .

. , . . -

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[[[[ 4]4]4]4]

( )1. 1. 1. 1. 5 1 (2008~2030)2 5 (2010~2024)

. (17% ->20%) ( ). 60%( () ) . 40% 1 40%, , , , . 1980 (80 63.3%)()80 9 ( 29.7% , 6.5% , 15% ). , , 1 2. , 200023~25%. . 30%

. .

.

55

. . . , 8. 2008 , 140 . . 4 7 13.1% 10.7% 4.9% . 65% 30%. . . . 915 . 6 21548 kw .

2. 2. 2. 2. . 1980 48%

, . .

56

[ 1] 2011 2 * : . , . 11 ~ , 5 ~6 , 2~5 . ,

. . . . . . , 1 6 ., . (IEA) .

.

57

[ 1] CO2 * Tracking Industrial Energy Efficiency and CO2 Emission, IEA, 2007

3. 3. 3. 3. .

. 5 . 2024 10%. 48.5%79.5% . .

[ 2] 5 * : 5(2008~2022)

58

. . , . 100%

. . .

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.

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. 4 (2012~2016), (255 , 2008.12.22)

60

(255 ) . '(PRIDE, 10t )' 2028( ' -1(STELLA-1)) . ( , , , : ) 2. 13,246 MtU(2008.12 ) , 1010,000MtU 1%. , .

>1. 1. 1. 1. (((( : : : : kg/TOE)kg/TOE)kg/TOE)kg/TOE)

SO2 NOX CO HCLNG 0.010 2.346 0.105 0.670 0.586

81.283 7.059 5.187 0.642 0.165 6.096 7.059 0.755 0.642 0.165

* : ' (2002.12)',

2. 2. 2. 2. (*(*(*(* : : : : IPCC)IPCC)IPCC)IPCC)LNG 1TOE * 0.637*44/12=2.336 tCO21TOE * 0.875*44/12=3.028 tCO21TOE * 1.059*44/12=3.88 tCO2