Ελληνική Οικονομία τεύχος 18
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www.kepe.gr
2015
18
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E
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: ( ) ( )
- : . 210 3676359Email: greekeconomy@kepe.gr
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:. -. ..
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http://www.kepe.gr/greekeconomy.htm
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No 18 2015
EDITORIAL 4
5
12
: 22
, 29
2015
KEN
3
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4 2015
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2015, -. , , - , , 20 , . , -, - . , .
, . . , - - , - .
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EDIT
OR
IAL
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20155
,
, , - , - , , , , . , - .
, (), 2015 3,1%, - () 3,5% 2015, 2016 - 3,8%, 2002-2011 ( 1)., 2015, 2% 1,9%, , , , 6,8%.
2002-2011
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
(%) 3,9 3,3 3,3 3,3 3,1 3,8 1,7 1,3 1,4 1,8 1,9 2,5 1,7 2,3 2,2 2,4 2,0 2,8 1,1 -0,8 -0,3 0,9 1,4 2,1 0,7 1,7 1,6 -0,1 0,7 1,4 6,7 5,2 5,1 4,7 4,2 4,9 10,6 7,7 7,7 7,4 6,8 6,7
(%) 0,1 -2,2 -2,2 -2,0 -1,9 -1,2
(%) 6,9 7,9 7,9 7,3 6,9 6,6
(%) 2,1 1,9 1,3 1,5 0,7 1,7
(% ) -4,4 -5,8 -4,2 -3,7 -3,1 -2,5
(%) 5,6 3,1 3,3 3,2 3,9 5,3
1
: (2015).
-
KEN
2015
6
, , 2015 6,9% 7,3% 2014 7,9% 2013, - -. , , -, , - , .
, , 2015 1,4%, , (1,8%). , , - , , - (). , 2016, 2,1% - (1,9%) , . 2015, Eurostat, - 11,1%, 0,1 2015 1,0 2015. ,, , 2015 9,7% 2015 6,9%.
, , - (-0,6%) . , Euro-stat, 0,3% 0,0% , , ( - , , - , , ..), .
, - //, - , - . , , , - . , , 2015 - 0,1%, 2016 2,3% ( 2).
-
2015
KEN
7
2015, , , , 0,2% 2014 0,4% 2014. 2015 2014 (0,3%).
o M 2015, -, , o , . , 91,4 92,7 . , (), , , .
. , - , 2015 , , 2,9% 2014 2,1% 2013. 2014- 2015, 2013- 2014, - 2,9 %. , 2015 - 6,3%, 1,3%, , , .
, - (Purchasing Managers Index - PMI), Markit, 2015 48, - , (46,5). 50,0 , . , Markit, , - .
. , - 2015 -2,1
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
( %) -5,3 -8,9 -6,6 -4,0 0,7 0,1 2,3
( %) -6,9 -10,7 -7,9 -2,2 1,4 0,9 1,1
( %) -4,4 -6,3 -6,7 -5,1 -0,8 -1,7 -0,9
( %) -20,8 -17,0 -28,5 -9,5 3,0 0,6 5,0
(%) 12,7 17,9 24,4 27,5 26,4 25,2 24,1
(% ) -9,9 -9,9 -2,5 0,6 0,9 2,1 2,8
(% ) -11,1 -10,2 -8,7 -12,3 -3,6 -3,4 -2,8
2
: (2015).
-
2015
KEN
8
-1,4%, -1,8% 2015, 2015, -2,8%.
2015 , 2013, 27,9%( 1). , , 2015 25,6%, 25,6% 2015 26,9% 2014. , - 2015 3.518.858 , 16.092 0,5% 2015, 2014 14.056 0,4%. 1.211.507 , 79.395 6,2% 2014 4.283 0,4% 2015. 2015 25,2% 26,4% 2014 ( 2), , - , 2015 25,6%.
, , -- 2015 - 2.179 . ,
1
: (2015).
-
KEN
20159
1.026 . 2014. , - 2014, 4.186 . . , 2015, 2014 406 . , , 765 . . , 2015 1.627 . , 283 . 2014. , - , , 2015, 1.699 . .
- , - . , 8/6/2015 764 846 19/5/2015 794 5/5/2015. , KEPE GRIV1 - . 58,04%, 45,53% , 58,31%, 47,65% ( 2). .
2 KEPE GRIV (2/1/2004-29/5/2015)
: , 2015.
1. . . .
-
, - , . , , 2015 - repos 174,7 . 181,2. , 213,3 . 2014. , 6,6 . , 2014-2015 repos 38,7 . 18,1%. 38,7 . , , , 2014- 2015 - 30,6 . , 133,6 . . , .
, , - spread 10 ( ), , , 1.000 . , 1/6/2015 spread 1.064 - 1.133 26/5/2015 1.056 5/5/2015. , , spread 1/6/2015 141 , 221 , 66 140 ( 3).
2015
KEN
10
3Spread 10 -
: Thomson Reuters Datastream, 2015.
-
KEN
201511
, , , 2015 , , 651 . , 59,3% 2014, 1.598 . . - - , 2014 - 1.176 . , 738 . , , , 893 . ( 14,6%). , , - , 2015, 1.594 . , 300 . - 2014. , 2015 395 . 2015 1.108 . 2015, 4,1 . , 2015 692 . .
, - , 2015 312,6 . , - , 11,5 . 2014 (324,1 . ), 10,9. () (), Eurogroup 20
2015. , 2015 400 . . - , (repos) , . , 2015 repos 10,3 . , 9,8 . 2015.
-
2015
KEN
12
,
1. - (2002) (2014). , - , , 2 , T- (), 85% -. - . , .
2. , , - (.. , , -, ..). -, , , - . , , .. ( 3) . 4 () ().
1. . . , , . . .
2. , , : (), Alpha Bank, Eurobank-Ergasias .
3. , Van den Heuvel (2002) Karagianniset al. (2012).
4. (credit channel) Bernanke and Gertler (1995) Kashyap and Stein (2000).
-
KEN
201513
1 , .
1
: & (2007).
, , , , .
1. 2. 3.
(.. , , - ..)
4. 5. 6. 7. 8.
1. ( )2. 3. 4. (equity) 5. (.. -
, , , -, ..)
6.
(off-balance sheet items)
( , ,Repos ..)
1
: & (2007).
- 2002-20145.
5. ,. , . (2011).
-
2015
KEN
14
3. 2, , , : , , Eurobank-Ergasias AlphaBank. 2, , - 2014 () 111,4 . 85,2 . Eurobank Ergasias 71,6 . , , - Alpha Bank 69,2 .
ETE Alpha Bank Eurobank-Ergasias
( )2002 53,927 28,725 25,281 14,724 122,657
2003 53,712 30,803 27,912 14,735 127,161
2004 52,877 33,037 32,986 16,591 135,491
2005 60,209 43,805 44,376 23,408 171,798
2006 76,307 49,523 53,720 30,831 210,381
2007 90,097 54,514 68,303 46,283 259,197
2008 101,064 64,936 81,953 54,635 302,589
2009 113,220 69,596 83,880 53,997 320,693
2010 120,274 66,371 86,685 57,263 330,593
2011 105,560 57,681 75,096 48,174 286,512
2012 103,501 56,557 65,547 68,511 294,116
2013 108,521 70,909 74,523 89,148 343,100
2014 111,440 69,246 71,624 85,271 337,581
( % )2002 43,97 23,42 20,61 12,00 100,0
2003 42,24 24,22 21,95 11,59 100,0
2004 39,03 24,38 24,35 12,25 100,0
2005 35,05 25,50 25,83 13,63 100,0
2006 36,27 23,54 25,53 14,65 100,0
2007 34,76 21,03 26,35 17,86 100,0
2008 33,40 21,46 27,08 18,06 100,0
2009 35,30 21,70 26,16 16,84 100,0
2010 36,38 20,08 26,22 17,32 100,0
2011 36,84 20,13 26,21 16,81 100,0
2012 35,19 19,23 22,29 23,29 100,0
2013 31,63 20,67 21,72 25,98 100,0
2014 33,01 20,51 21,22 25,26 100,0
2
: Thomson Reuters DataStream (Worldscope database).
-
KEN
201515
2, , . . , () , 2014, 33,0% . 25,2% , Eurobank-Ergasias 21,2% , , Alpha Bank 20,5%.
2012 , , , 2012, 6. , 2011 - . - 330,5 2010, 2011 286,5 . 44 ( 13,3% ). -: , ( 3, , 2010 2011, 20 ) , , PSI (Private Sector Involvement) 2012. , 2013 - 343,1 - 337,5 2014.
( 3 , 1, ) .
4.
3 2002-2014. - .
3 : , 2014, , , 71,4 , , ( ) - 57,4 . , 2013, ( ) 7 - . 2013, Alpha
6. , , , -, Millennium.
7. .
-
2015
KEN
16
Bank, , - Eurobank-Ergasias ( ) - , , .
4 . - .
4 2010 , 70% , ( 2008 76% ). 2014, 66% - 8. -, , . ( 2005 & 2006) AlphaBank
ETE Alpha Bank Eurobank-Ergasias
2002 25,440 21,157 15,532 8,505.61 70,634
2003 26,818 26,286 17,219 10,498.3 80,822
2004 31,292 23,246 21,964 11,929.1 88,432
2005 31,118 29,983 29,617 17,636.9 108,355
2006 45,008 36,464 36,984 23,218.6 141,674
2007 56,968 45,534 50,215 33,151.7 185,868
2008 74,909 53,0111 60,491 40,836.6 229,248
2009 77,928 53,246 60,621 38,953.9 230,749
2010 80,533 51,346 61,427 39,559.5 232,866
2011 75,797 46,683 55,082 34,927.1 212,489
2012 69,135 43,878 47,864 45,466.3 206,343
2013 67,250 54,245 45,610 62,365.8 229,470
2014 71,433 52,329 42,133 57,440.1 223,335
3
*
: Thomson Reuters DataStream (Worldscope database). * . 1. .
8. , , - (collaterals) ( , ). , .
-
KEN
201517
. 9.
- .
A I 5 (%) . ThomsonReuters DataStream : , & () , 3 1. , 5, () .
, , : , 2010, & 42 ( 49,8% - ). ( 2014) -
9. - ( 1) . , , ... 1/3 - ( , , 2014, . 75).
ETE Alpha Bank Eurobank-Ergasias
2002 47,17 73,65 61,44 57,77 57,59
2003 49,93 85,34 61,69 71,25 63,56
2004 59,18 70,36 66,59 71,90 65,27
2005 51,68 68,45 66,74 75,34 63,07
2006 58,98 73,63 68,85 75,31 67,34
2007 63,23 83,53 73,52 71,63 71,71
2008 74,12 81,63 73,81 74,74 75,76
2009 68,83 76,51 72,27 72,14 71,95
2010 66,96 77,36 70,86 69,08 70,44
2011 71,80 80,93 73,35 72,50 74,16
2012 66,80 77,58 73,02 66,36 70,16
2013 61,97 76,50 61,20 69,96 66,88
2014 64,10 75,57 58,83 67,36 66,16
4H (%)
: Thomson Reuters DataStream (Worldscope database).
-
2015
KEN
18
25,5 ( 30,4% -), 2010 3,2 ( 3,9% ). - 2011 & . 2014 26,8% ( 30,4% 2010), 4,1% . , , & , .
- , ( 6) - . , 2011, - & . , 2013 2014, 44 42 , . - , 2014 26% , , .
Alpha ank, 2014 & 30 ( 49,0% ). 2014 20,2 ( 33,2% ) 13,7 2010, , - 2,7 ( 4,5% - ).
, Eurobank-Ergasias, 2010 - Alpha Bank & 32,5 ( 51,1% -) 17,1 ( 26,9% ), , 2010, 5,1 ( 8,1% ). , , . -, & , 2014 (19,4 18,3 , ). , ( ) 7,2 (14% ) , 10. & .
10. () 9%-16% .
-
KEN
201519
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
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EA
lph
a B
ank*
Eu
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s
2002
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5,9
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na21
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3,3
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2,3
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11,8
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6,9
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4,5
24,8
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4,4
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2006
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21,5
15,3
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6,9
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2,9
31,0
4,6
30,6
14,8
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11,7
61,9
2,8
20,6
5,7
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33,5
2007
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27,2
19,2
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58,5
4,2
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8,8
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3,3
37,4
4,6
30,6
14,8
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11,7
61,9
2,5
27,0
6,6
0,0
5,2
41,5
2008
1,8
41,4
22,2
0,0
11,0
76,5
3,4
25,3
11,1
0,3
4,6
46,3
4,7
31,8
15,4
0,0
10,3
62,3
1,2
27,0
6,6
0,0
4,9
39,9
2009
3,1
40,4
24,4
0,0
12,2
80,3
2,3
30,3
13,5
0,6
5,9
54,2
5,1
32,5
17,1
0,0
8,9
63,7
1,9
27,6
6,9
0,0
4,4
40,9
2010
3,2
41,9
25,5
0,0
13,3
84,0
2,4
30,7
13,7
1,0
6,1
55,4
5,1
32,5
17,1
0,0
8,9
63,7
1,9
27,6
6,9
0,0
4,4
40,9
2011
4,3
40,5
24,0
0,0
14,0
82,9
1,8
28,4
14,1
0,5
5,4
51,5
6,9
30,4
14,0
0,0
7,0
58,4
0,9
26,3
6,8
0,0
3,9
37,9
2012
0,0
na23
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na76
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324
,113
,90,
85,
348
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22,5
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2014
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(4)
(5)
(6)
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(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
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(2)
(3)
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(6)
ET
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%)
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2003
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-
2015
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5. - , 2014 , Eurobank-Ergasias Alpha Bank. 2010 70% ( 2008, , 76% ). - , 2014 - 66% . .
, - - , 2013-14. , , - , . - .
, , - :
1) , - . ,
2) . - . , : ) (prices of collaterals) . - , , ) , - , ) ) - ( ).
(2014), ,
.
, . , . (2007), II: , , 65, : .
-
KEN
201521
, . , . (2011), , - , .
Bernanke, B. & Gertler, M. (1995), Inside the Black Box: the Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission,
Journal of Economic Perspectives, 9, pp. 27-48.
Karagiannis, S., Panagopoulos, Y., and Spiliotis, A. (2012), Modelling banks lending behaviour in a capital
regulated framework, Metroeconomica 63, pp. 389-416.
Kashyap, A. and Stein J. (2000), What Do a Million Observations on Banks Say about the Transmission of
Monetary Policy?, American Economic Review 90, pp. 407-428.
Van den Heuvel, S. (2002), Does bank capital matter for monetary transmission?, Federal Reserve Bank of
New York, Economic Policy Review, May.
-
2015
KEN
22
: :
, (...), Team Europe ,
( )
1. , - , . , , - (Non Performing Loans, NPLs)1 - , - .
, - , (Regulatory Capital)2, - , .
- . , - , , , , ( , .), . , - , (Credit Evaluation), (Risk Management), (Asset and Liability Manage-ment), (Corporate Governance), , - , -.
1. , 90 , . .. (2014), 42/30.5.2014.
2. . - , , , (Jones, 2000).
-
KEN
201523
, , , - . . , - : i) ii) . - , / , , . , .
2. NPLs, KAI - , 1988, -, (International Convergence of Capital Measurement and CapitalStandards) (, 1990 & 1991). , 2004 , II (International Convergence of Capital Measurement and Capital Standards:a Revised Framework) - (Hakenesa & Schnabelb, 2011, , 2007). . 3601/2007, - 2006/48/ 2006/49/ (.....).
( II) ():
- , ( )( 1).
( ) , , - ( 2).
- , , ( 3).
-
2015
KEN
24
2008, , - , 2019 - , - (, 2012).
2015, - 1 (CET1) 4,5%, (Tier 1) 6% 8%3.
, - (deleveraging) - (non-core banking assets), . , NPLs - (DGComp) - , .
NPLs c. 84 . , ( III) - .
3. CET1, Tier I -, , -, (Risk Weighted Assets).
4. NPL ratio Gross Loans (Q1 2015).
CET 1 ratio CET 1 ratio (Basel III)
NPL ratio NPL4 (bn)
Alpha Bank 13,1% 12,6% 33,8% 16,8
National Bank of Greece 12,1% 8,7% 32,0% 23,7
Eurobank Ergasias 14,2% 10,2% 34,0% 18,0
Piraeus Bank 11,9% 11,1% 38,9% 25,1
1Capital Adequacy Ratio CET 1 NPLs (Q1 2015)
: .
3. NPLs - (bank-specific determinants), . , .
H Rinaldi Arellano (2006) , - , -
-
KEN
201525
. (Linear Cointegration/Vector Error Correctionmodel) , - .
, Beck, Jakubic Piloiu (2013), 75 2003-2013, , , - (effective FX rate) .
Klein (2013), . , - (feedback effects / two way causality) NPLs , (Aizenman and Noy, 2006). NPLs , - .
, Makri, Tsaganos Bellas (2014), NPLs 2000-2008, , - ( , , ) (Capital AdequacyRatio, RoE). , o NPLs NPLs , - .
, NPLs - . , - - . Louzis, Vouldis Metaxas (2012), NPLs, - , , , , , .
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NPLs . - :
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, - , - . :
Resolution Trust Company, 1989 Securum, 1992 Fondo Bancario de Proteccin al Ahorro (FOBAPROA), 1995 Indonesia Bond Pricing Agency (IBPA), 1998 Korean Asset Management Corporation (KAMCO), 1998 Danaharta, 1998 Savings Deposit Insurance Fund (SDIF), 2001 National Asset Management Agency (), 2009 Sociedad de Gestin de Activos procedentes de la Reestructuracin Bancaria (SAREB),
2012.
AMCs, - , .
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ii) (AMC):
:
:
(State aid).
5. . - 2015-2016, . . , - - .
- . , NPLs, .
, - , -, . , .
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3601/2007, , , 178 / 1-8-2007.
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2006/49/ , 14 2006, , L 177/201, 30.6.2006.
2013/36/ , 26 2013, , 2002/87/ 2006/48/ 2006/49/, EE L 176/338, 27.6.2013.
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2.003 2010), 3 . , (Clearance Rate) 79,1% 2010 65,4% 2012, - .., - . ( 80,2% 2010 153,4% 2013), - 2 . , 5 , (5,6 100 2013, 1,7 2010). , - . , , . , 17% - . - 20 .. (3,7 2013-2014, 3,1 2010-2012), World Economic Forum.
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: 1European Commission 2014, 2World Economic Forum 2009-10, 2013-14, 2014-15, 3 IMD, 2010, 2013, 2014.
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25
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25
European Commission for the Efficiency of Justice (CEPEJ)1
(Judicial independence) 75 84 70
90 138 126 (Efficiency of legal framework in setting disputes)
84 130 114 (Efficiency of legal framework in challenging regulations)
2009-2010
133
2013-2014
148
2014-2015
144
Global Competitiveness Index2
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(Justice) 29 40 41
2010
60
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60
2014
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World Competitiveness Scoreboard3
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World Economic Forum 2014-2015, (justice independence) 70 144, 14 2013-2014 (84 ) 5 2009-2010 (75 ) ( 1). , - , . , 1,1 () 6,7 ( ), 3,7 , (3,9).
(126 ), (114 ). 2013-2014 ( 12 16 , ), 36 30 2009-2010. , , - 1,5 () 6,2 (), 2,7 , (3,8). , , -. , 1,2 () 5,6 (), 2,7 3,4 .
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3. . Transparency International (2014), - , , , -, , , .
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34
, , - : , . - , . , , , , , , , -. (.4304/23.10.2014- 234) - , (.4281/8.8.2014- 160) - , . , - .
CPI (Corruption Perception Index) - . CPI 2014, 432 , 66, 69 175 ( 2). ( 11 9 2013 2010, ), , , - (Transparency Interna-tional, 2014).
World Economic Forum 2014-2015, 13 (irregularpayments and bribes) 2013-2014 (91 ) 78 - 144 ( 2). , 2,1 () 6,7( ), 3,8 , (4,1). WEF (2014) , - , , , , , .
, Institute for Management Development (2014), (bribing and corruption) 2013 2010. 2014 42 60 , 4 2013 2010 (38 ) ( 2). - , 0,22 () 9,15 (), 2,00 .
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(transparency) Institute for Management Development(2014), 49 60 . , 1 2013 (50 ), 6 - 2010 (43 ). , 0,38 (-) 8,26 (), 2,75 .
20133 (Transparency International, 2013), 4,6 ( - .. 4,1) - - . 54% 2 , 70% - . 2010-2011. 1 2013 . - , , , , - . 22% , (23% ), (9% ). .., 11% 5% 2010.
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: 1Transparency International 2011, 2013, 2014, 2 World Economic Forum 2009-10, 2013-14, 2014-15, 3 IMD, 2010, 2013,2014.
2010
178
2013
177
2014
175
Corruption Perceptions Index1
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2009-2010
133
2013-2014
148
2014-2015
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(Bribing and corruption) 38 38 42
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-
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(41%) (31%). , - . 82% , - , 25% .
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: Transparency International, 2013.
2013 (Public Issue, 2014). 7,3% 2013 , 5,6% 1,9% . , 2, 2010 12,3% , 8,5% 4,4% 2007. , 2013 15,1% 2012 15,7% 2011. . 50% (35,4% 2010) , - 12,1% (14,4% 2010) 10,2% (12,1% 2010). - / , - , / , , , . 2013 389 ., 1.000 .
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CEPEJ (2014a), European judicial systems, Edition 2014(2012 data): Efficiency and quality of justice, an over-
view, European Commission for the Efficiency of Justice.
CEPEJ (2014b), Study on the functioning of judicial systems in the EU Member States: Greece, European Com-
mission for the Efficiency of Justice, CEPEJ(2014) final, 14.3.2014.
Ernst & Young (2015), Fraud and corruption the easy option for growth? Europe, Middle East, India and Africa
Fraud Survey 2015.
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2013, Occasional Paper no 159.
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April 2014, Occasional Paper no 192.
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Institute for Management Development (2010, 2013, 2014). IMD World Competitiveness Yearbook 2010/ 2013/2014. IMD, Lausanne.
Public Issue (2011, 2013, 2014), -2010/ 2012/ 2013. , .
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(2013), 2014, COM(2013) SWD 800 final, - 13.11.2013.
(2013), - 2013 , SWD(2013) 358 final, 29.05.2013.
(2014), 2015, COM(2014) 902 final, 28.11.2014
(2015), 2015, COM(2015)116 final, 9.3.2015.
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