america’s incredible, shrinking, aging, less ready, ever more expensive armed forces
DESCRIPTION
TRANSCRIPT
1
America’s Incredible, Shrinking, Aging, Less Ready, Ever More Expensive Armed Forces
AHS, Patuxent MD, August 2009
Winslow T. WheelerDirector, Straus Military Reform Project
Center for Defense Information [email protected]
2
Mis-Measuring the “Defense” Budget
3
What Is the “Defense” Budget?
Category FY 2010(Request)
DOD (“Base”) 537.7War Funding 130“Atomic Energy Defense Activities” (DOE) 17.7“Defense Related Activities” (GSA, etc.) 7.4Total “National Defense” 692.8Homeland Security (DHS) 42.7Veterans Affairs (DVA) 105.8International Affairs 48.6Non-DOD Military Retirement 27.821% of Interest on the Debt 56.9Grand Total 974.6
4
DOD Budget 1947-2010($Billions, 2009$)
Source: National Defense Budget Estimates for FY 2009, Office of the Under Secretary of Defense (Comptroller) March 2008
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
194719
5019
5319
5619
5919
6219
6519
6819
7119
7419
7719
8019
8319
8619
8919
9219
9519
9820
0120
0420
0720
1020
1320
1620
19
DoD Budget ($BN) Cold War Average
5
Mis-Measurement a la Conservatives(Pretend Spending Trend)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1947
1950
1953
1956
1959
1962
1965
1968
1971
1974
1977
1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
2007
2010
% of GDP for DOD
6
Mis-Measurement a la Liberals(The Spin)
DefenseAll Others
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Discretionary Appropriations
7
Mis-Measurement a la Liberals(The Data)
Defense Spending v. Others
Defense
All Others
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
All Appropriations
8
United States vs. the World ($ Billions)
762 736693
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
$800
$900
IISS 2008 SIPRI 2008 2008 National Defense
9
US vs. China, Russia, Cuba, Iran, North Korea ($ Billions, 2009 Dollars)
12270
1.6 7.1 5
205.7
693
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
$800
ChinaRussia
CubaIran
North Korea
All to the Left
National Defense 2008
Total Defense Spending per IISS 2008
10
More Money Buys a Smaller Force
11
Army Division Equivalents and Budget ($Billions, FY 2009 Dollars)
Sources: National Defense Budget Estimates for FY 2009, Office of the Under Secretary of Defense (Comptroller) March 2008, Center of Military History, Historical Perspective on Force Structure Reductions 1946-1988, Washington, D.C. 1989, Department of Defense Annual Reports, and Department of Defense Appropriations Bill Reports from the
House Committee on Appropriations.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1946
1955
1964
1973
1982
1991
2000
2009
Army Division Equivalents
0
50
100
150
200
250
1946
1955
1964
1973
1982
1991
2000
Army Budget ($Billions)
12
Navy Combat Ships and Budget ($Billions, FY 2009 Dollars)
Sources: National Defense Budget Estimates for FY 2009, Office of the Under Secretary of Defense (Comptroller) March 2008
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1946
1956
1966
1976
1986
1996
2006
Active Navy Combat Ships
0
50
100
150
200
250
1946
1955
1964
1973
1982
1991
2000
Navy Budget
13
Air Force Tactical Wings and Budget (Billions, FY 2009 Dollars)
Sources: National Defense Budget Estimates for FY 2009, Office of the Under Secretary of Defense (Comptroller) March 2008 and Air Force Historical Research Agency (Maxwell AFB) analysis, “Force Structure, United States Army Air Forces and United States Air Force.”
010203040506070
1946
1955
1964
1973
1982
1991
2000
Active Air Force Tactical WingEquivalents
0
50
100
150
200
250
1946
1955
1964
1973
1982
1991
2000
Air Force Budget
14
DOD Budget & Active Duty Personnel(1947-2010)
($Billions, 2009 Dollars)
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
1947
1949
1951
1953
1955
1957
1959
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
DoD Budget ($BN ) Active Duty Personnel (x1,000) Linear (DoD Budget ($BN )) Linear (Active Duty Personnel (x1,000))
15
More Money Buys LessProcurement of Air Force Fighter & Attack Aircraft
CBO Assessment of FY 2008 Defense Budget
16
More Money Buys an Older Force
17
18
19
20
And, Less Ready
21
Readiness
• Army Tank Miles: Down from 800 to 550
• Are units going to Iraq “ready?”
• Naval aviators getting 17 hours/month.
• Air Force is worse.
22
More Capability?
• F-22 Example
– Puny Force at Gigantic Cost– Inadequate Resources for Pilot Skill– Major Aerodynamic Disappointment– How much “Stealth” & “Supercruise”?– Unproven BVR Hypothesis
• & Unexercised Antithesis
• The unaffordable F-35 is worse.
23
The Prospects for Reform
• Lots of Lipstick
• Even More Talk
• One Notable Action
24
Hopelessly Cosmetic Levin-McCain-Lynn Bill
• Cost Czar can’t dictate prices.
• Anti-Fly-before-Buy Provision.
• Interested contractors to continue analysis of DOD programs.
• Nothing on FM, or Oversight, or Pork
• Expect it to be as big a failure as Goldwater-Nichols.
25
Talk Is Cheap
• “And if Congress sends me a bill loaded with that kind of waste [earmarks], I will veto it.” (BHO, Veterans of Foreign Wars, August 18, 2009)
• Bills loaded with $3 billion to $9 billion in pork.
• SAP gives green light to GE F-35 engine & more.
26
Action Counts
• After a nasty, brutish and long fight, F-22 was ended.
• More big ticket fights needed.
• Hundreds of earmarks to be costed, studied, competed.