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Using Search to Predict the Winner of American Idol Season 8: Adam Lambert vs. Kris Allen

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Insert Logo Here(Place logo in slide master)Hypothesis and Methodology

Hypothesis: Search data can help predict the winner of American Idol

• By reviewing search data and trends from Google Insights for the top 3 American Idol contestants, we are able to determine:• Search popularity: Who has the most search volume at a given

time?• Regional searches: What are the top states searching for a

contestant?• Related searches: What other terms (or contestants) are

searches looking for?

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American Idol Season 5 (2006):Taylor Hicks vs. Katharine McPhee

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4/ 5/ 2006 4/ 12/ 2006 4/ 19/ 2006 4/ 26/ 2006 5/ 3/ 2006 5/ 10/ 2006 5/ 17/ 2006 Season Finale (5/ 24/ 2006)

5/ 31/ 2006

taylor hicks katharine mcphee elliott yamin

Hicks takes the lead in search a couple of weeks before the finale and his eventual victory

AMERICAN IDOL SEASON 5 SEARCH TRENDS FOR TOP 3 CONTESTANTS

(APRIL – MAY 2006)

Source: 360i Analysis Google Insights; May 2009

May 25th: Searches for Taylor Hicks peak the day after he claims the title

McPhee receives more searches than Hicks several weeks before the finale

Elliot says goodbye; Hicks is the search leader

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Predicting Hicks over McPhee with search

• Taylor Hicks had more searches than Katharine McPhee leading up to the finale

• Elliott Yamin was generally not competitive in search with the 2 finalists overtime. Elliot’s relatively small fan base (as determined by search) probably had a minimal effect on the final results

• Elliott’s top states (including his home state of Virginia) were dominated by searches for Taylor Hicks (blue) in March and April

Source: 360i Analysis Google Insights; May 2009

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American Idol Season 6 (2007):Jordin Sparks vs. Blake Lewis

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4/ 4/ 2007 4/ 11/ 2007 4/ 18/ 2007 4/ 25/ 2007 5/ 2/ 2007 5/ 9/ 2007 5/ 16/ 2007 Season Finale (5/ 23/ 2007)

5/ 30/ 2007

jordin sparks blake lewis melinda doolittle

With 3 strong finalists competing to make the top 2, 3rd place Doolittle’s fans appear to vote for Season 6 winner, Sparks, in the finale

Source: 360i Analysis Google Insights; May 2009

AMERICAN IDOL SEASON 6 SEARCH TRENDS FOR TOP 3 CONTESTANTS

(APRIL – MAY 2007)May 24th: Searches for “Jordin Sparks” surge after her victory

Blake Lewis appears to be the early favorite…

But with top contender Doolittle out, who would her voters support? Sparks and Lewis are neck and neck in search

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Predicting Sparks over Blake with search

• Unlike 3rd place finisher Elliot Yamin (Season 5), Melinda Doolittle was competitive in search with the top 2 finalists

• Jordin Sparks (as well as 4th place contestant, Lakisha Jones) received more related searches to Melinda than Blake in the months leading up to the finale

Source: 360i Analysis Google Insights; May 2009

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American Idol Season 7 (2008):David Cook vs. David Archuleta

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In the weeks leading up to the finale, season 7 winner, David Cook, is generally more popular in search than runner-up David Archuleta

Source: 360i Analysis Google Insights; May 2009

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4/ 2/ 2008 4/ 9/ 2008 4/ 16/ 2008 4/ 23/ 2008 4/ 30/ 2008 5/ 7/ 2008 5/ 14/ 2008 Season Finale (5/ 21/ 2008)

5/ 28/ 2008

david cook david archuleta syesha mercado

AMERICAN IDOL SEASON 7 SEARCH TRENDS FOR TOP 3 CONTESTANTS

(APRIL – MAY 2008)

Searches for 3rd place Syesha Mercado never compete with the top 2

With a week and a half to go, Archuleta surpasses Cook but cannot hold on

May 22nd: The day after Cook is declared winner of the Davids

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Predicting Cook over Archuleta with search

• 3rd place Syesha Mercado is not competitive in search with David Cook or David Archuleta

• Syesha’s top states are large and are primarily searching for David Cook

• Archuleta’s home state, Florida, leans to Cook

Source: 360i Analysis Google Insights; May 2009

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American Idol Season 8 (2009):Adam Lambert vs. Kris Allen

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Search trends suggest that Adam Lambert will be the next American Idol

Source: 360i Analysis Google Insights; May 2009

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4/ 1/ 2009 4/ 8/ 2009 4/ 15/ 2009 4/ 22/ 2009 4/ 29/ 2009 5/ 6/ 2009 5/ 13/ 2009

adam lambert kris allen danny gokey

AMERICAN IDOL SEASON 8 SEARCH TRENDS FOR TOP 3 CONTESTANTS

(APRIL – MAY 2009)• Searches for Adam Lambert reached its

highest after he performed “Mad World” and received a standing ovation from Simon

• Search volume for Lambert has consistently been higher than top competitors

Danny Gokey exits and sets up a Lambert vs. Allen finale

Finalist Kris Allen’s search volume has never reached Adam Lambert’s levels

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Predicting Lambert over Allen with search

• Adam Lambert has consistently been the leader in search against his main rival, Kris Allen

• With the exception of Allen’s home state of Arkansas, Lambert dominates Kris Allen’s and Danny Gokey’s top states

• Although Gokey’s search volume was not competitive with Lambert’s, regional interest for Gokey suggests his voters will support Lambert

Source: 360i Analysis Google Insights; May 2009