america: elections and reflections how relevant is the usa
TRANSCRIPT
America: Elections and Reflections
How relevant is the USA to us today?
Trajectory Trends Breakfast
August 2016
Introduction
A SPECIAL RELATIONSHIP
A brief history
Post Brexit Realities
“[M]aybe some point down the line there might be a UK-US trade
agreement, but it’s not going to happen any time soon because our focus
is in negotiating with a big bloc, the European Union, to get a trade
agreement done”.
The UK is going to be in the back of the queue.”
--Barack Obama, 22nd April 2016
“Henry Kissinger’s famous question about ‘Who do I call in Europe?’ has
now been settled. The answer is that we call the German chancellor’s
office. That means we have to invest in the relationship with Germany,”
-- Nicholas Burns, Advisor to Hillary Clinton, reported in the Financial Times,
26th June 2016
A parting of the ways
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
GDP growth, y-o-y % change US and UK
US UK
Source: IMF WEO April 2016, Oxford Economics August 2016
THE US AND THE WORLD
Economic Resilience
2016 2020
US $18,558bn $21,873bn
China $11,383bn $16,144bn
Source: IMF WEO April 2016,
The view from within
Closed, nationalist, defensive, threatened, anxious
35% say the US should
increase defence
spending
Up from 23% in 2014
41% say the US does too
much in solving world
problems
27% think it does too
little
49% say US involvement in
the global economy
is a bad thing
44% think it is a good
thing
Source: PEW Research Centre, 2016
The view from abroad
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Do you have a favourable or unfavourable view of the US?
% Favourable
China France Germany Russia UK Japan
Source: PEW Research Centre, 2016
WHAT NEXT?
THE ELECTION & BEYOND
Room in the Centre vs.
The Hunt for Meaning
Political (un)certainty?
Source: 538.com, 15/8/2016
A new kind of politics
The UK’s seen political shifts too…
Source: EVS 1981-2010, TGF 2011-2014 (Great Britain, UK)
27%
59%
15%
25%
46%
29%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Left (1-4) Centre (5-6) Right (7-10)
Political identification, on a 10
point scale
2000 2014
The UK is European in action…
Sleeping Resting
Washing, dressing
Eating/drinking
Cooking,
washing up
Cleaning/tidying
Clothes washing etc
DIY, gardeningDoctor/dentist etc
Church, temple, mosque etc
Travelling: walking/jogging
Travelling: cycle
Travelling: car
Travelling: bus/tram
Travelling: train/tube
Travelling:
other
Paid work
Formal education
Recreational courses
Voluntary work
Caring for
own children Caring for other children
Caring for coresident adults Work/study break
Shopping, banking
Watching tv,
listening to musicReading
Playing sports,
exercise
Going out to eat, drink
Playing computer games
Spending time with friends, family Contacting friends and family
Cinema, theatre etc
Hobbies
UK
USA
France Italy
Germany
Spain
Sweden
Netherlands
Finland
Trajectory’s Study of Time
If not in mentality…
Would not want to live next
door to an immigrant
When jobs are scarce,
employers should give
priority to nationals
The world today is a more
dangerous place than it
used to be
High level of national pride
Feel I have completely free
choice and control over the
way my life turns out
Right of political spectrum
Priority should be solving
own country's problems, not
global poverty
Think ethnic diversity
enriches life
UK
USA
France
Italy
Germany
Spain
Sweden
Netherlands
Trajectory Global Foresight (2014-15)
Anger, fragmentation & echo chambers
“…the first class in history for which the norm is having a higher level of educational
qualifications than the labour the person can expect to obtain and be obliged to do.
This makes the alienation easier to appreciate. But this imbalance generates deep
status frustration, as well as an anger about having no sense of a future, no sense that
life and society is about advancing to a better state.
But in terms of consciousness, we can see why the precariat is the new dangerous class,
because it rejects the old mainstream political traditions, rejecting labourism as much
as neoliberalism, social democracy as much as Christian democracy.”
The Precariat and Class Struggle: Guy StandingMay 2014
Drivers of change
IMPLICATIONS
Soft & cultural powerDemagogues and Demagorgons
2001 2016
Implications
Rise of the Precariat Less cultural power?
Post factual democracy Fragmentation everywhere
A date for your diaries
29th September 2016
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Tom Johnson
Director