am website presentation april 2016
TRANSCRIPT
Partnership OverviewApril 2016
FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTSThis presentation contains forward-looking statements. All statements, other than statements of historical facts, included in this presentation that address activities, events or developments that Antero Midstream Partners LP, and its subsidiaries (collectively, the “Partnership”) expect, believe or anticipate will or may occur in the future are forward-looking statements. The words “believe,” “expect,” “anticipate,” “plan,” “intend,” “estimate,” “project,” “foresee,” “should,” “would,” “could,” or other similar expressions are intended to identify forward-looking statements. However, the absence of these words does not mean that the statements are not forward-looking. Without limiting the generality of the foregoing, forward-looking statements contained in this presentation specifically include expectations of plans, strategies, objectives, and anticipated financial and operating results of the Partnership and Antero Resources Corporation (“Antero Resources”). These statements are based on certain assumptions made by the Partnership and Antero Resources based on management’s experience and perception of historical trends, current conditions, anticipated future developments and other factors believed to be appropriate. Such statements are subject to a number of assumptions, risks and uncertainties, many of which are beyond the control of the Partnership, which may cause actual results to differ materially from those implied or expressed by the forward-looking statements. These include the factors discussed or referenced under the heading “Item 1A. Risk Factors” in our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2015 and in the Partnership’s subsequent filings with the SEC.
The Partnership cautions you that these forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause these statements to be inaccurate, and readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on such statements. These risks include, but are not limited to, Antero Resources’ expected future growth, Antero Resources’ ability to meet its drilling and development plan, commodity price volatility, inflation, environmental risks, drilling and completion and other operating risks, regulatory changes, the uncertainty inherent in projecting future rates of production, cash flow and access to capital, the timing of development expenditures, and the other risks discussed or referenced under the heading “Item 1A. Risk Factors” in the Partnership’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2015 and in the Partnership’s subsequent filings with the SEC.
Our ability to make future distributions is substantially dependent upon the development and drilling plan of Antero Resources, which itself is substantially dependent upon the review and approval by the board of directors of Antero Resources of its capital budget on an annual basis. In connection with the review and approval of the annual capital budget by the board of directors of Antero Resources, the board of directors will take into consideration many factors, including expected commodity prices and the existing contractual obligations and capital resources and liquidity of Antero Resources at the time.
Any forward-looking statement speaks only as of the date on which such statement is made, and the Partnership undertakes no obligation to correct or update any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by applicable law.
1
Antero Midstream Partners LP is denoted as “AM” and Antero Resources Corporation is denoted as “AR” in the presentation, which are their respective New York Stock Exchange ticker symbols.
2
CHANGES SINCE APRIL 2016 PRESENTATION
Updated AR Marcellus and Utica single well economics as of 3/31/2016 strip pricing Slide 9
Updated AR slides highlighting net acreage position as of 3/31/2016 Slides 5, 8, 21, 31
Updated AR slides showing 3/31/2016 hedging position and mark-to-market value Slides 14, 16
Updated AR Marcellus and Utica single well economics as of 3/31/2016 strip pricing Slide 9
Sustainable Business
Model
High Growth Sponsor Drives AM Throughput
and Distribution Growth
Largest Dedicated Core Liquids-Rich Acreage Position in Appalachia
$900 Million ofAM Liquidity
3
Premier E&P Operator in Appalachia
100% Fixed Fee and Largest Firm Transport
and Hedge Portfolio
Opportunity to Build Out Northeast Value Chain
Growth Liquids-Rich
Value Chain
Opportunity
HighVisibility
SponsorStrength
LEADING UNCONVENTIONAL MIDSTREAM BUSINESS MODEL
“Just-in Time” Non-Speculative Capital Program
Strong Financial Position
Mitigated Commodity
Risk
1
2 3
4
5
67
8
Premier AppalachianMidstream Partnership
Run by Co-Founders
Consolidated Acreage Position in Lowest
Unit Cost Basin
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
0200400600800
1,0001,2001,4001,6001,8002,000
AR1Q '16
EQT CHK COG AR SWN RRC CNX
-
100
200
300
400
500
600
AR Peer 1 Peer 2 Peer 3 Peer 4 Peer 5 Peer 6
Core Net Acres - Dry Core Net Acres - Liquids Rich
Top Producers in Appalachia (Net MMcfe/d) – 4Q 2015(1)(2) Top 12 U.S. Natural Gas Producers (Net MMcf/d) – 4Q 2015(1)
Appalachian Producers by Proved Reserves (Bcfe) – YE 2015(1)(2) Appalachian Producers by Core Net Acres (000’s) – December 2015(4)
1. Based on company filings and presentations.2. Appalachian only production and reserves where available. Excludes companies that do not break out Appalachian production including CVX, HES and XOM. 3. Includes proved reserves categorized in “Northern Division” consisting of Utica Shale, Marcellus Shale and Powder River Basin.4. Based on Antero geologic interpretation supported by state well data, company presentations and public land data. Peer group includes CNX, COG, EQT, RRC, SWN, CHK.
(3)
4
4th Largest Appalachian
Producer in 4Q
Antero has the largest proved reserve base, largest core liquids-rich acreage position and is one of the largest producers in the Appalachian Basin
Appalachian Peers
11th Largest U.S. Gas
Producer in 4Q
Largest Proved Reserve Base In
Appalachia Largest Liquids-Rich Core Position
in Appalachia
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
AR EQT RRC COG CNX CHK SWN
AR1Q ’16
AR
1st
SPONSOR STRENGTH – LEADERSHIP IN APPALACHIAN BASIN
Note: 2015 SEC prices were $2.56/MMBtu for natural gas and $50.13/Bbl for oil on a weighted average Appalachian index basis. 1. 3P reserve pre-tax PV-10 based on annual strip pricing for first 10-years and flat thereafter as of December 31, 2015. NGL pricing assumes 39%, 46% and 48% of WTI strip prices for 2016, 2017 and
2018 and thereafter, respectively. 2. All net acres allocated to the WV/PA Utica Shale Dry Gas and Upper Devonian Shale are included among the net acres allocated to the Marcellus Shale as they are stacked pay formations attributable to
the same leasehold. 3. Antero and industry rig locations as of 4/1/2016, per RigData.
5
COMBINED TOTAL – 12/31/15 RESERVESAssumes Ethane RejectionNet Proved Reserves 13.2 TcfeNet 3P Reserves 37.1 TcfeStrip Pre-Tax 3P PV-10(1) $11.2 BnNet 3P Reserves & Resource 50 to 53 TcfeNet 3P Liquids 1,237 MMBbls% Liquids – Net 3P 20%1Q 2016 Net Production 1,758 MMcfe/d- 1Q 2016 Net Liquids 68,516 Bbl/dNet Acres(2) 573,000Undrilled 3P Locations 3,719
OHIO UTICA SHALE CORE
Net Proved Reserves 1.8 TcfeNet 3P Reserves 7.5 TcfeStrip Pre-Tax 3P PV-10(1) $2.5 BnNet Acres 148,000Undrilled 3P Locations 814
MARCELLUS SHALE CORE
Net Proved Reserves 11.4 TcfeNet 3P Reserves 29.6 TcfeStrip Pre-Tax 3P PV-10(1) $8.7 BnNet Acres 425,000Undrilled 3P Locations 2,905
WV/PA UTICA SHALE DRY GASNet Resource 12.5 to 16 TcfNet Acres 190,000Undrilled Locations 1,889
0123456789
Rig
Cou
nt
Operators
SW Marcellus + Utica Rigs(3)
SPONSOR STRENGTH – MOST ACTIVE OPERATORIN APPALACHIA
10 38 80 126 266
531
908
1,134 1,197 1,216 1,195 1,222
0200400600800
1,0001,2001,4001,6001,800 Utica Marcellus
108 216 281 331 386
531
738
935 965 1,038
1,124
1,303
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600 Utica Marcellus
26 31 40 36 41 116
222
358
454 435478
606
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800 Utica Marcellus
$1 $5 $7 $8 $11$19
$28$36
$41
$55
$83
$0$10$20$30$40$50$60$70$80$90
$100
Low Pressure Gathering (MMcf/d)
Compression (MMcf/d)
High Pressure Gathering (MMcf/d)
EBITDA ($MM)
6
$313
Note: Y-O-Y growth based on 1Q’15 to 1Q’16.1. Represents midpoint of 2016 guidance.
GROWTH – HIGH GROWTH MIDSTREAM THROUGHPUT
$0.170 $0.180 $0.190 $0.205
$0.235
1.1x
1.2x1.3x
1.4x
1.8x
0.0x
0.2x
0.4x
0.6x
0.8x
1.0x
1.2x
1.4x
1.6x
1.8x
2.0x
$0.000
$0.050
$0.100
$0.150
$0.200
$0.250
$0.300
$0.350
$0.400
$0.450
$0.500
4Q14A 1Q15A 2Q15A 3Q15A 4Q15A 1Q16A 2Q16E 3Q16E 4Q16E 1Q17E 2Q17E 3Q17E 4Q17E
Distribution Per Unit (Left Axis) DCF Coverage (Right Axis)
$0.220
7
• Antero Midstream is targeting 28% to 30% annual distribution growth through 2017• AM has delivered on those targets with DCF coverage of 1.8x in the fourth quarter 2015
Note: Future distributions subject to AM Board approval.1. Assumes midpoint of target distribution growth range.2. 1Q 2016 distribution per Partnership press release dated 4/14/2016.
(2)
GROWTH – TOP TIER DISTRIBUTION GROWTH
8Source: Core outlines and peer net acreage positions based on investor presentations, news releases and 10-K/10-Qs. Rig information per RigData as of 4/1/2016.1. Based on company filings and presentations. Peer group includes Ascent, CHK, CNX, CVX, ECR, EQT, GPOR, NBL, REX, RRC, STO, SWN.
• Antero controls an estimated 37% of the NGLs in the liquids-rich core of the two plays
• Antero has the largest core liquids-rich position in Appalachia with ≈377,000 net acres (> 1100 Btu)
• Represents over 21% of core liquids-rich acreage in Marcellus and Utica plays combined
Antero has over 2,700 undeveloped rich gas locations with an average lateral length of 7,580’ in its 3P reserves as of 12/31/2015
0
100
200
300
400
(000
s)
Core Liquids-Rich Net Acres(1)
LIQUIDS-RICH – LARGEST CORE POSITION
$1.55$1.36
$1.14
$0.000
$0.500
$1.000
$1.500
$2.000
2014 2015 Current Spot
$MM
/1,0
00’ L
ater
al
Well Cost ($MM/1,000' of Lateral)
12% Decrease vs. 2014
16% Decrease vs. 2015
626 971
553 75563% 47%
24% 28%35%24%
10% 13%
0
400
800
1,200
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
Highly-RichGas/
Condensate
Highly-Rich Gas Rich Gas Dry Gas
Tota
l 3P
Loca
tions
RO
R
Total 3P Locations ROR @ 3/31/2016 Strip Pricing - After Hedges ROR @ 3/31/2016 Strip Pricing - Before Hedges
184
98 108
161263
14%
48%64% 56% 64%
9%
23% 24% 20% 24%
0
100
200
300
0%20%40%60%80%
100%
Condensate Highly-RichGas/
Condensate
Highly-RichGas
Rich Gas Dry Gas
Tota
l 3P
Loca
tions
RO
R
MARCELLUS WELL ECONOMICS(1)(2)
Marcellus Well Cost Improvement(3)
1. 3/31/2016 pre-tax well economics based on a 9,000’ lateral, 3/31/2016 natural gas and WTI strip pricing for 2016-2025, flat thereafter, NGLs at 37.5% of WTI for 2016 and 50% of WTI thereafter, and applicable firm transportation and operating costs including 50% of Antero Midstream fees. Well cost estimates include $1.2 million for road, pad and production facilities.
2. ROR @ 3/31/2016 Strip-With Hedges reflects 3/31/2016 well cost ROR methodology, with the 3/31/2016 hedge value allocated based on 2016-2021 projected production volumes resulting in blend of strip and hedge prices.
3. Current spot well costs based on $8.5 million for a 9,000’ lateral Marcellus well and $10.25 million for a 9,000’ lateral Utica well.9
UTICA WELL ECONOMICS(1)(2)
74% of Marcellus locations are processable (1100-plus Btu) 68% of Utica locations are processable (1100-plus Btu)
2016Drilling
Plan
Antero has reduced average well costs for a 9,000’ lateral by 12% in the Marcellus and 12% in the Utica as compared to 2014 well costs At 3/31/2016 strip pricing, Antero has 2,227 locations that exceed a 20% rate of return (excluding hedges)
– Including hedges, these locations generate rates of return of approximately 50% to 80%
Utica Well Cost Improvement(3)
$1.34$1.18
$0.95
$0.000
$0.500
$1.000
$1.500
$2.000
2014 2015 Current Spot
$MM
/1,0
00’ L
ater
al
Well Cost ($MM/1,000' of Lateral)
12% Decrease vs. 2014
19% Decrease vs. 2015
SUSTAINABLE BUSINESS MODEL – AR MULTI-YEAR DRILLING INVENTORY SUPPORTS LOW RISK, HIGH RETURN GROWTH PROFILE
10
In-service 2016 Budget
HIGH VISIBILITY – PROJECTED MARCELLUSMIDSTREAM BUILDOUT
11
In-service 2016 Budget
HIGH VISIBILITY – PROJECTED UTICAMIDSTREAM BUILDOUT
8
0
4
0
3
7
02468
10
AM CNNX EQM CMLP SMLP RMP
Fixed Fee
100%
Fixed Fee
100%
12
MITIGATED COMMODITY RISK – 100% FIXED FEE – RICH TO DRY
Contract Mix
Fixed Fee97%
Fixed Fee
100%
Fixed Fee
100%Fixed Fee90%
(1)
.
Source: Core net acreage positions based on investor presentations, news releases and 10-K/10-Qs.1. Represents assets held at MLP.2. Rig count as of 1/1/2016, per RigData.3. Includes Antero Resources rigs located in Doddridge County, WV operating on SMLP assets.
CommodityBased
CommodityBased
Appalachian ExposureMarcellus – Dry
Marcellus – Rich
Utica – Dry
Utica – Rich
Water Services
Rigs Running on Midstream Footprint (2)
(3)
- 500,000
1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 3,000,000 3,500,000 4,000,000 4,500,000 5,000,000 5,500,000
13
BBtu/d
Antero Resources Transportation Portfolio• Antero Resources has built the largest firm transportation portfolio in Appalachian Basin with 4.85 BBtu/d by year end 2018
2015 2016E 2017E 2018EFavorable:ChicagoMichConGulf CoastNYMEXTCO
AR Increasing Access to Favorable Markets
Less favorable:TETCO M2Dominion South
74%
26%
99%
1%
97%
3%
97%
3%
(Stonewall/WB) Mid-Atlantic/NYMEX
(Stonewall/TGP) Gulf Coast
(TCO) Appalachia or Gulf Coast
AppalachiaAppalachia
(REX/ANR/NGPL/MGT) Midwest
(ANR/Rover) Gulf Coast
MITIGATED COMMODITY RISK – FIRM TRANSPORTATION & SALES PORTFOLIO
$0.00
$1.00
$2.00
$3.00
$4.00
$5.00
$6.00
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$MM
14
Hedging is a key component of Antero’s business model which includes development of a large, repeatable drilling inventory– Locks in higher returns in a low commodity price environment and reduces the amount of time for well payouts, thereby
enhancing liquidity Antero has realized $2.1 billion of gains on commodity hedges since 2009
– Gains realized in 28 of last 29 quarters, or 97% of the quarters since 2009● Based on Antero’s hedge position and strip pricing as of 3/31/2016, the unrealized commodity derivative value is $3.1 billion● Significant additional hedge capacity remains under the credit facility hedging covenant for 2020 – 2022 period
Quarterly Realized Hedge Gains / (Losses)
Realized Hedge GainsProjected Hedge Gains
NYMEX Natural Gas Historical Spot Prices
($/MM
Btu
)
NYMEX Natural Gas Futures Prices 03/31/16
3.6 Tcfe Hedged at average price of
$3.71/Mcfethrough 2022
Average Hedge Prices ($/Mcfe)
$3.36
$3.91
$3.57
$3.91$3.70 $3.66
$3.24
$3.1 Billion in Projected Hedge
Gains Through 2022Realized $2.1 Billion in Hedge Gains
Since 2009
HEDGING – INTEGRAL TO BUSINESS MODEL
(1)
1. Represents average hedge price for nine months ending 12/31/2016.
Regional Gas Pipelines
Miles Capacity In-Service
Stonewall Gathering Pipeline(2)
50 1.4 Bcf/d Yes
1. Acquired by AM from AR for a $1.05 billion upfront payment and a $125 million earn out in each of 2019 and 2020. 2. AM holds option to purchase 15% of Stonewall pipeline at cost plus cost of carry.
EndUsers
EndUsers
Gas Processing
Y-Grade Pipeline
Long-Haul Interstate
Pipeline
InterConnect
NGL Product Pipelines
Fractionation
Compression
Low Pressure Gathering
Well Pad
Terminalsand
Storage
(Miles) YE 2015 YE 2016E
Marcellus 106 114
Utica 55 56
Total 161 170
AM has option to participate in processing, fractionation,
terminaling and storage projects offered to AR
(Miles) YE 2015 YE 2016E
Marcellus 76 98
Utica 36 36
Total 112 134
(MMcf/d) YE 2015 YE 2016E
Marcellus 700 940
Utica 120 120
Total 820 1,060
AM Owned Assets
Condensate GatheringStabilization
(Miles) YE 2015 YE 2016E
Utica 19 19
EndUsers
AM Option Assets
(Ethane, Propane, Butane, etc.)
15
VALUE CHAIN OPPORTUNITY – FULL MIDSTREAM VALUE CHAIN
Note: All balance sheet data as of 12/31/2015. Pro forma for AR secondary offering of 8.0 million AM units on 3/24/2016 for net proceeds of $178 million. 1. Mark-to-market as of 3/31/2016.2. Based on AR ownership of AM units (108.9 million common and subordinated units) and AM’s closing price as of 3/31/2016.3. AR credit facility commitments of $4.0 billion, borrowing base of $4.5 billion.
Liquid “non-E&P assets” of $5.5 Bnsignificantly exceeds total debt of $3.9 Bn
Liquidity
Antero Resources (NYSE:AR) Antero Midstream (NYSE:AM)
12/31/2015 Debt Liquid Non-E&P Assets 12/31/2015 Debt Liquid Assets
Debt Type $MMCredit facility $529
6.00% senior notes due 2020 525
5.375% senior notes due 2021 1,000
5.125% senior notes due 2022 1,100
5.625% senior notes due 2023 750
Total $3,904
Asset Type $MMCommodity derivatives(1) $3,073
AM equity ownership(2) 2,407
Cash 16
Total $5,496
Asset Type $MMCash $16
Credit facility – commitments(3) 4,000
Credit facility – drawn (529)
Credit facility – letters of credit (702)
Total $2,785
Debt Type $MMCredit facility $620
Total $620
Asset Type $MMCash $7
Total $7
Liquidity
Asset Type $MMCash $7
Credit facility – capacity 1,500
Credit facility – drawn (620)
Credit facility – letters of credit -
Total $887
Approximately $2.8 billion of liquidity at AR plus an additional $2.4 billion of AM units
Approximately $900 million of liquidityat AM
16
Only 41% of AM credit facility capacity drawn
STRONG FINANCIAL POSITION – STRONG BALANCE SHEETAND FLEXIBILITY
0.0x0.5x1.0x1.5x2.0x2.5x3.0x3.5x4.0x4.5x
Peer 1 Peer 2 Peer 3 Peer 4 Peer 5 Peer 6 Peer 7
Tota
l Deb
t / L
TM E
BIT
DA
• $1.5 billion revolver in place to fund future growth capital (5x Debt/EBITDA Cap)
• Liquidity of $887 million at 12/31/2015
• Sponsor (NYSE: AR) has Ba2/BB corporate ratings
AM Liquidity (12/31/2015)
AM Peer Leverage Comparison(1)
($ in millions)
Revolver Capacity $1,500
Less: Borrowings 620
Plus: Cash 7
Liquidity $887
1. As of 12/31/2015. Peers include TEP, EQM, WES, RMP, SHLX, DM, and CNNX.2. AM includes full year EBITDA contribution from water business.
Financial Flexibility
17
(2)
STRONG FINANCIAL POSITION – SIGNIFICANT FINANCIAL FLEXIBILITY
TOP TIER DISTRIBUTION GROWTH & HEALTHY COVERAGE
18
3–Year Street Consenus Distribution Growth Rate and DCF Coverage(1)
1. Based on Bloomberg 2015-2018 Bloomberg consensus estimates as of 12/31/2015.
31%
26% 25% 25%23%
19%
15%13% 12%
8%
1.5x
1.3x
1.4x
1.8x
1.3x1.4x
1.2x
1.3x1.3x
1.2x
0.00x
0.20x
0.40x
0.60x
0.80x
1.00x
1.20x
1.40x
1.60x
1.80x
2.00x
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
SHLX PSXP AM VLP DM EQM TEP MPLX CNNX WES
EQM
DM SHLX
CNNXWES
TEPMPLX
PSXPVLP
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
3% 8% 13% 18% 23% 28% 33%
Yiel
d (%
)
2016-2018 Distribution Growth CAGRBubble Size Reflects Market Capitalization
ATTRACTIVE VALUE PROPOSITION
19
AM – 03/31/15 Yield: 4.03%
Price: $21.81
AM - ImpliedYield: 2.85%Price: $30.84
• Attractive appreciation potential on a relative basis
1. Based on Bloomberg 2015-2018 Bloomberg consensus distribution estimates and market data as of 12/31/2015.
R-squared = 88%
Antero Midstream (NYSE: AM)Asset Overview
20
1. Represents inception to date actuals as of 12/31/2015 and 2016 guidance.2. Includes both expansion capital and maintenance capital.
21
UticaShale
MarcellusShale
Projected Gathering and Compression Infrastructure(1)
Marcellus Shale
Utica Shale Total
YE 2015 Cumulative Gathering/ Compression Capex ($MM) $981 $462 $1,443
Gathering Pipelines(Miles) 182 91 273
Compression Capacity(MMcf/d) 700 120 820
Condensate Gathering Pipelines (Miles) - 19 19
2016E Gathering/Compression Capex Budget ($MM)(2) $235 $20 $255
Gathering Pipelines (Miles) 30 1 31
Compression Capacity(MMcf/d) 240 - 240
Condensate Gathering Pipelines (Miles) - - -
Gathering and Compression Assets
ANTERO MIDSTREAM GATHERING AND COMPRESSION ASSET OVERVIEW
• Gathering and compression assets in core of rapidly growing Marcellus and Utica Shale plays
– Acreage dedication of ~442,000 net leasehold acres for gathering and compression services
– Additional stacked pay potential with dedication on ~148,000 acres of Utica deep rights underlying the Marcellus in WV and PA
– 100% fixed fee long term contracts
• AR owns 62% of AM units (NYSE: AM)
ANTERO MIDSTREAM ASSETS – RICH GAS MARCELLUS
22
• Provides Marcellus gathering and compression services
− Liquids-rich gas is delivered to MWE’s 1.2 Bcf/d Sherwood processing complex
• Significant growth projected over the next twelve months as set out below:
• Antero plans to operate an average of five drilling rigs in the Marcellus Shale during 2016, including intermediate rigs
− 100% of rigs targeting the highly-rich gas/condensate and highly-rich gas regimes
• All 80 gross wells targeted to be completed in 2016 are in the AM dedicated area
− AM dedicated acreage contains 2,126 gross undeveloped Marcellus locations
• Antero will defer an additional 62 completions, with 20 being wells dedicated to a third-party midstream provider that were originally scheduled for completion in 2016 but will now be carried into 2017, in order to limit natural gas volumes sold into unfavorable pricing markets
Marcellus Gathering & Compression
Note: Antero acreage position reflects tax districts in which greater than 3,000 net acres are owned.
YE 2015 YE 2016E
Low Pressure Gathering Pipelines (Miles)
106 114
High Pressure Gathering Pipelines (Miles)
76 98
Compression Capacity (MMcf/d) 700 940
23
• Provides Utica gathering and compression services− Liquids-rich gas delivered into MWE’s 800 MMcf/d
Seneca processing complex− Condensate delivered to centralized stabilization and
truck loading facilities• Significant growth projected over the next twelve months
as set out below:
• Antero plans to operate an average of two drilling rigs in the Utica Shale during 2016, including intermediate rigs
− 100% of rigs targeting the highly-rich gas/condensate and highly-rich gas regimes
• All 35 gross wells targeted to be completed in 2016 are on Antero Midstream’s footprint
• Antero will defer an additional 8 completions in order to limit natural gas volumes sold into unfavorable pricing markets
Utica Gathering & Compression
Note: Antero acreage position reflects tax districts in which greater than 3,000 net acres are owned.
ANTERO MIDSTREAM ASSETS – RICH & DRY GAS UTICA
YE 2015 YE 2016E
Low Pressure Gathering Pipelines (Miles)
55 56
High Pressure Gathering Pipelines (Miles)
36 36
Condensate Pipelines (Miles) 19 19
Compression Capacity (MMcf/d) 120 120
ANTERO MIDSTREAM WATER BUSINESS OVERVIEW
24Note: Antero acreage position reflects tax districts in which greater than 3,000 net acres are owned.1. Represents inception to date actuals as of 12/31/2015 and 2016 guidance.2. All Antero water withdrawal sites are fully permitted under long-term state regulatory permits both in WV and OH. 3. Includes both expansion capital and maintenance capital. 4. Marcellus assumes fee of $3.685 per barrel subject to annual inflation and 250,000 barrels of water per well that utilize the fresh water delivery system based on 9,000 foot lateral. Operating margin
excludes G&A. Utica assumes fee of $3.635 per barrel subject to annual inflation and 275,000 barrels of water per well that utilize the fresh water delivery system based on 9,000 foot lateral. Operating margin excludes G&A.
AM acquired AR’s integrated water business for $1.05 billion plus earn out payments of $125 million at year-end in each of 2019 and 2020− The acquired business includes Antero’s Marcellus and Utica freshwater delivery business, the fully-contracted future advanced wastewater
treatment complex and all fluid handling and disposal services for Antero
Antero advanced wastewater treatment facility to be constructed – connects to Antero freshwater delivery system
Projected Water Business Infrastructure(1)
Marcellus Shale
Utica Shale Total
YE 2015 Cumulative Fresh WaterDelivery Capex ($MM) $469 $62 $531
Water Pipelines(Miles) 184 75 259
Fresh Water StorageImpoundments 22 13 35
2016E Fresh Water Delivery Capex Budget ($MM)(3) $40 $10 $50
Water Pipelines(Miles) 20 9 29
Fresh Water StorageImpoundments 1 - 1
Cash Operating Margin per Well(4) $700k - $750k
$775k -$825k
2016E Advanced Waste Water Treatment Budget ($MM) $130
2016E Total Water Business Budget ($MM) $180
Water Business Assets• Fresh water delivery assets provide fresh water to support
Marcellus and Utica well completions– Year-round water supply sources: Clearwater Facility, Ohio
River, local rivers & reservoirs(2)
– 100% fixed fee long term contracts
010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,00080,000
Antero Clearwater Advanced Wastewater Treatment Capacity (Bbl/d)
Produced/Flowback Volumes (Bbl/d)
Illustrative Produced & Flowback Water VolumesAdvanced Wastewater Treatment
Antero Produced Water Services and Freshwater Delivery Business
Antero AdvancedWastewater Treatment
3rd Party Recyclingand Well Disposal
(Bbl/d)
Advanced Wastewater Treatment ComplexEstimated capital expenditures ($ million)(1) ~$275Standalone EBITDA at 100% utilization(2) ~$55 – $65Implied investment to standalone EBITDA build-out multiple ~4x – 5xEstimated per well savings to Antero Resources ~$150,000Estimated in-service date Late 2017Operating capacity (Bbl/d) 60,000Operating agreement
• Antero has contracted with Veolia to integrate an advanced wastewater treatment complex into its water business
• Veolia will build and operate, and Antero will own largest advanced wastewater treatment complex in Appalachia− Will treat and recycle AR produced and flowback water− Creates additional year-round water source for completions− Will have capacity for third party business over first two years
1. Includes capital to construct pipeline to connect facility to freshwater delivery system. Includes $10 million that AR agreed to fund in the drop down transaction. 2. Standalone EBITDA projection assumes inter-company fixed fee for recycling of $4.00 per barrel and 60,000 barrels per day of capacity. Does not include potential sales of marketable byproducts.
20 Years, Extendable
25Integrated Water Business
Antero Advanced Wastewater Treatment
Freshwater delivery system
Flowback and produced
Water
Well Pad
Well Pad
CompletionOperations
Producing
Freshwater
Salt
Calcium Chloride
Marketable byproduct
Marketable byproduct used in oil and gas operations
Freshwater delivery system
ANTERO MIDSTREAM ADVANCED WASTEWATER TREATMENT ASSET OVERVIEW
ORGANIC GROWTH STRATEGY DRIVES VALUE CREATION
26
• Organic growth strategy provides attractive returns and project economics, while avoiding the competitive acquisition market and reliance on capital markets
• Industry leading organic growth story
– ~$1.9 billion in capital spent through 09/30/2015 on gathering and compression and water assets
– $410 million in additional growth capital forecast for the twelve-month period ending 12/31/16 (excludes $25 million of maintenance capital)
Note: Precedent data per IHS Herold’s research and public filings.1. Antero organic multiple calculated as estimated gathering and compression and water capital expended through Q3 2015 divided by midpoint of 2016 EBITDA guidance of $300 to $325 million,
assuming 12-15 month lag between capital incurred and full system utilization.2. Selected gathering and compression drop down acquisitions since 1/1/2012. Drop down multiples are based on NTM EBITDA. Source: Barclays.
5.9x
11.5x
10.8x10.5x
9.3x9.0x 8.8x 8.7x 8.6x 8.6x
8.2x7.9x 7.8x
6.9x
0.0x
1.0x
2.0x
3.0x
4.0x
5.0x
6.0x
7.0x
8.0x
9.0x
10.0x
11.0x
12.0x
Drop Down Multiple(2)
Organic EBITDA Multiple vs. Precedent Drop Down Multiples
Median: 8.8x
Value creation for the AM unit holder =Build at 4x to 7x EBITDA
vs.Drop Down / Buy at 8x to 12x EBITDA
LPGathering
HPGathering Compression
CondensateGathering
Fresh Water Delivery
Advanced Wastewater Treatment
RegionalPipeline
Processing/Fractionation
Unlevered IRR Range: 25% - 35% 15% - 25% 10% - 20% 25% - 35% 30% - 40% 15% - 25% 15% - 25% 15% - 20% Payout (Years): 2.5 - 4.0 3.5 - 4.5 4.0 - 6.5 2.0 - 3.5 2.0 – 3.0 6.0 - 8.0 3.5 - 7.0 5.0 - 6.0 Minimum Volume Commitments: N/A 75% 70% N/A Yes N/A 80% 80%
2016 Expansion Capex(2) Total
Marcellus $388 $33 $49 $143 - $33 $130 Utica 22 7 1 7 - 7 -
Growth Capex $410 $40 $50 $150 $0 $40 $130 % of Capex 100% 10% 12% 37% 0% 10% 32%
Included in 2016 Budget: Marcellus & Utica
Marcellus & Utica
Marcellus & Utica
Utica Marcellus & Utica
Marcellus & Utica
Not Included Not Included
Additional In-hand Opportunities:
Dry Utica Dry Utica Dry Utica Utica Stabilization
Dry Utica Dry Utica Regional Gathering
Pipeline
Marcellus Processing/
Fractionation
25%
15%
10%
25%
30%
15% 15% 15%
35%
25%
20%
35%
25% 25%
40%
20%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%In
tern
al R
ate
of R
etur
n
27
Project Economics by Segment(1)
ESTIMATED PROJECT ECONOMICS BY SEGMENT
1. Based on management capex, operating cost and throughput assumptions by project. Capex guidance updated per 2016 Partnership guidance press release. 2. Excludes $25.0 million of maintenance capex.
Wtd. Avg. 21% IRR
AM Option Opportunities
AM UPSIDE OPPORTUNITY SET
28
ACTIVITY CURRENTLY DEDICATED TO AM
Third Party Business
Processing, Fractionation, Transportation and Marketing
Regional Pipeline Project• Option to participate for up to 15% in regional gathering
pipeline project in West Virginia that went in-service 12/1/2015
• Additive to full value chain model
• Opportunity to expand fresh water, waste water and gathering/compression services to third parties in Marcellus and Utica to enhance asset utilization
• AR must request a bid from AM and can only reject if third party service fees are lower. AM has right to match lower fee offer.
WV/PA Utica Dry Gas• 190,000 net acres of AR Utica dry gas acreage underlying
the Marcellus in West Virginia and Pennsylvania dedicated to AM
• AR has drilled and completed its first WV Utica well
Active AR Leasing• Future acreage acquisitions by AR are dedicated to AM• Added 92,000 net acres in 2014 and added 26,000 net
acres in 2015
REGIONAL PIPELINE PROJECT
• Option to Acquire Up To 15% Non-Op Equity Interest
●Enables Antero Resources to move up to 1.1 Bcf/d of gas on a firm basis (900 MMcf/d minimum volume commitment) to more favorably priced markets including TCO, NYMEX and Gulf Coast markets
- Currently moving ~950 MMcf/d
Regional Gathering Pipeline
Throughput Capacity: 1.4 Bcf/d
Pipeline Specifications:
50 miles of 36 inch pipeline
Project Capital: ≈ $400 Million
In-Service Date: 12/1/2015
AR Firm Commitment: 900 MMcf/d
29
AR Gross Processable
Acres
Gross 3P NGL Reserves
(MMBbls)(1)
AR 3P GrossWellhead Gas (Tcf)
Potential Processing AOD for AM
Tyler 78,000 406.8 7.4
Ritchie 51,000 295.1 6.3
Gilmer 14,000 42.7 1.1
Total 143,000 744.6 14.8
PROCESSING – VALUE CHAIN POTENTIALFOR UNDEDICATED ACREAGE
SherwoodProcessing
Complex
AR acreage position on map reflects tax districts in which greater than 3,000 net acres are held.1. Antero gross 3P C3+ NGL volumes and 3P Gross Wellhead Gas reserves as of 12/31/2015. Net acres as of 3/31/2016.
Processing Area Of Dedication for AM
MarkWest Processing AOD – 198,000 Gross
Acres
Tyler County78,000 Gross Acres
Ritchie County51,000 Gross Acres
Antero Resources has 14.8 Tcf of processable gross 3P gas reserves and 745 Million Bbls of gross 3P NGL reserves across 143,000 gross processable Marcellus acres that are dedicated to Antero Midstream for processing
30
Gilmer County14,000 Gross Acres
LARGE UTICA SHALE DRY GAS POSITION
31
Antero has completed its first dry gas Utica well – a 6,620’ lateral in Tyler County, WV
Antero has 231,000 net acres of exposure to Utica dry gas play in OH, WV and PA
Other operators have reported strong Utica Shale dry gas results including the following wells:
ChesapeakeHubbard BRK #3H
3,550’ LateralIP 11.1 MMcf/d
HessPorterfield 1H-17
5,000’ LateralIP 17.2 MMcf/d
GulfportIrons #1-4H5,714’ Lateral
IP 30.3 MMcf/d
EclipseTippens #6H5,858’ Lateral
IP 23.2 MMcf/d
Magnum HunterStalder #3UH5,050’ Lateral
IP 32.5 MMcf/d
Well Operator24-hr IP(MMcf/d)
LateralLength
(Ft)
24-hr IP/1,000’Lateral
(MMcf/d)
Scotts Run EQT 72.9 3,221 22.633
Gaut 4IH CNX 61.0 5,840 11.131
CSC #11H RRC 59.0 5,420 10.886
Stewart-Win 1300U MHR 46.5 5,289 8.792
Bigfoot 9H RICE 41.7 6,957 5.994
Blank U-7H GST 36.8 6,617 5.561
Stalder #3UH MHR 32.5 5,050 6.436
Irons #1-4H GPOR 30.3 5,714 5.303
Pribble 6HU SGY 30.0 3,605 8.322
Simms U-5H GST 29.4 4,447 6.611
Conner 6H CVX 25.0 6,451 3.875
Messenger 3H SWN 25.0 5,889 4.245
Tippens #6H ECR 23.2 5,858 3.960
Porterfield 1H-17 HESS 17.2 5,000 3.440
1. Antero acreage position reflects tax districts in which greater than 3,000 net acres are held in OH, WV and PA.2. The Rymer 4HD has been flowing into the sales line for 90 days with an average choke-restricted flow rate of 20 MMcf/d.
Magnum HunterStewart Winland 1300U
5,289’ LateralIP 46.5 MMcf/d
RangeClaysville SC #11H
5,420’ LateralIP 59.0 MMcf/d
ChevronConner 6H
6,451’ LateralIP 25.0 MMcf/dGastar
Simms U-5H4,447’ Lateral
IP 29.4 MMcf/d
Utica Shale Dry Gas Acreage in OH/WV/PA(1)
RiceBigfoot 9H
6,957’ LateralIP 41.7 MMcf/d
AR Utica Shale Dry GasWV/PA
Net Resource12.5 to 16 Tcf
1,889 Gross Locations190,000 Net Acres
AR Utica Shale Dry GasOhio
3P Reserves2.3 Tcf
263 Gross Locations41,000 Net Acres
AR Utica Shale Dry GasTotal OH/WV/PA
Net Resource14.8 to 18.3 Tcf
2,152 Gross Locations231,000 Net Acres
Stone EnergyPribble 6HU
3,605’ LateralIP 30.0 MMcf/d
SouthwesternMessenger 3H5,889’ Lateral
IP 25.0 MMcf/d
RiceBlue Thunder
10H, 12H≈9,000’ Lateral
GastarBlake U-7H
6,617’ LateralIP 36.8 MMcf/d
EQTScotts Run
3,221’ LateralIP 72.9 MMcf/d
CNXGaut 4IH
5,840’ LateralIP 61.0 MMcf/d
AnteroRymer 4HD
6,620’ LateralIP 20.0 MMcf/d
(2)
Low Cost Marcellus/Utica Focus
“Best-in-Class” Distribution Growth
32
CATALYSTS
28% to 30% per year for 2016 and 2017 targeted based on Sponsor planned development; additional third party business expansion opportunities
AM Sponsor is the most active operator in Appalachia; 15% production growth guidance for 2016 supported by $1.4 billion capital budget, firm processing and takeaway, long-term natural gas hedges and $2.6 billion of liquidity; targeting 20% production growth in 2017
Sponsor operations target two of the lowest cost shale plays in North America; attractive well economics support continued drilling at current prices
Multiple opportunities exist for additional gathering and compression, processing and pipeline assets for Sponsor and third party use
Appalachian Basin Midstream Growth
High Growth Sponsor Production Profile
1
2
3
4
5
6
Acquisition of integrated water business from Antero expected to result in distributable cash flow per unit accretion in 2016
Stacked Pay Basin Upside
Development of Utica Shale Dry Gas and Upper Devonian resources provide further midstream infrastructure expansion opportunities
Integrated WaterBusiness Drop Down
APPENDIX
33
ANTERO MIDSTREAM – 2016 GUIDANCE
Key Variable 2016 GuidanceFinancial:Adjusted EBITDA ($MM) $300 - $325
Distributable Cash Flow ($MM) $250 - $275
Year-over-Year Distribution Growth(1) 28% - 30%
Operating:Low Pressure Pipeline Added (Miles) 9
High Pressure Pipeline Added (Miles) 22
Compression Capacity Added (MMcf/d) 240
Fresh Water Pipeline Added (Miles) 30
Capital Expenditures ($MM):Gathering and Compression Infrastructure $240
Fresh Water Infrastructure $40
Advanced Wastewater Treatment $130
Maintenance Capital $25
Total Capital Expenditures ($MM) $435
1. Reflects the expected distribution growth percentage associated with the fourth quarter 2016 over the fourth quarter 2015.
Key Operating & Financial Assumptions
34
2016 CAPITAL BUDGET
By Area
35
$423 Million – 2015(1)
By Segment ($MM)
$349
$6
$55$13
Gathering & Compression Fresh Water InfrastructureAdvanced Wastewater Treatment Maintenance Capital
74%
26%
Marcellus Utica
By Area
$435 Million – 2016By Segment ($MM)
Antero Midstream’s 2016 initial capital budget is $435 million, a 3% increase from 2015 capital expenditures of $423 million
3%
130 Completions
1. Excludes $1.05 billion water drop down in September 2015. Water capex values only from 4Q 2015.
$240
$40
$130
$25
Gathering & Compression Fresh Water InfrastructureAdvanced Wastewater Treatment Maintenance Capital
92%
8%
Marcellus Utica
ANTERO RESOURCES – 2016 GUIDANCE
Key Variable 2016 GuidanceNet Daily Production (MMcfe/d) 1,715
Net Residue Natural Gas Production (MMcf/d) 1,355
Net C3+ NGL Production (Bbl/d) 46,500
Net Ethane Production (Bbl/d) 10,000
Net Oil Production (Bbl/d) 3,500
Net Liquids Production (Bbl/d) 60,000
Natural Gas Realized Price Premium to NYMEX Henry Hub Before Hedging ($/Mcf)(1)(2) +$0.00 to $0.10
Oil Realized Price Differential to NYMEX WTI Oil Before Hedging ($/Bbl) $(10.00) - $(11.00)
C3+ NGL Realized Price (% of NYMEX WTI)(1) 35% - 40%
Ethane Realized Price (Differential to Mont Belvieu) ($/Gal) $0.00
Operating:Cash Production Expense ($/Mcfe)(3) $1.50 - $1.60
Marketing Expense, Net of Marketing Revenue ($/Mcfe) $0.15 - $0.20
G&A Expense ($/Mcfe) $0.20 - $0.25
Operated Wells Completed 110
Drilled Uncompleted Wells 70
Average Operated Drilling Rigs ≈ 7
Capital Expenditures ($MM):Drilling & Completion $1,300
Land $100
Total Capital Expenditures ($MM) $1,4001. Based on current strip pricing as of December 31, 2015. 2. Includes Btu upgrade as Antero’s processed tailgate and unprocessed dry gas production is greater than 1000 Btu on average. 3. Includes lease operating expenses, gathering, compression and transportation expenses and production taxes.
Key Operating & Financial Assumptions
36
LARGEST FIRM TRANSPORTATION AND PROCESSINGPORTFOLIO IN APPALACHIA
Antero Long Term Firm Processing & Takeaway Position (YE 2018) – Accessing Favorable MarketsMariner East 2
62 MBbl/d CommitmentMarcus Hook Export
Shell20 MBbl/d Commitment
Beaver County Cracker (2)
Sabine Pass (Trains 1-4)50 MMcf/d per Train
Lake Charles LNG(3)
150 MMcf/d
Freeport LNG70 MMcf/d
1. May 2016 and full year 2016 futures basis, respectively, provided by Intercontinental Exchange dated 3/31/2016. Favorable markets shaded in green. 2. Subject to Shell FID expected mid-year 2016.3. Lake Charles LNG 150 MMcf/d commitment subject to BG FID expected in 2016.
Chicago(1)
$(0.03) / $(0.03)
CGTLA(1)
$(0.06) / $(0.06)
TCO(1)
$(0.11) / $(0.14)
37
Cove Point LNG4.85 Bcf/dFirm GasTakeaway
By YE 2018
Antero’s natural gas firm transportation (FT) portfolio builds to 4.85 Bcf/d by YE 2018 with 87% serving favorable markets, with an average demand fee of $0.46/MMBtu and positive weighted average basis differential to NYMEX after assumed Btu uplift for gas
YE 2018 Gas Market MixAntero 4.85 Bcf/d FT
44%Gulf Coast
17%Midwest
13%Atlantic
Seaboard
13%Dom S/TETCO
(PA)
13%TCO
Positive weighted
average basis differential
Antero Commitments
(3)
(2)
NORTHEAST NGLS ARE TRANSPORTATION CHALLENGED
1. As an anchor shipper on Mariner East 2, Antero has the right to expand its NGL commitment with notice to operator. 2. 2015 NGL production assumes ethane rejection.
Mariner East 261,500 Bbl/d AR Commitment(1)
4Q 2016 In-Service
Not so much a supply problem but more of a logistics problem for NGLs in the northeast today− The majority of northeast NGL production is being transported by expensive rail and trucking− NGLs that are transported “to the water” are also faced with high shipping rates
Export15%
Gulf Coast13%
Mid-Atlantic
6%Sarnia
3%
Northeast43%
Midwest10%
Edmonton10%
2015 NGL Marketing by Region
38
NORTHEAST NGL GROWTH IS SUPPORTED BY INCREASING TAKEAWAY OPTIONS
1. Chart 10 per BAML research dated 6/5/2015. Pipeline volumes are capacity estimates.
Industry NGL Pipelines – Actual (2015) and Projected(1)
39
ShellBeaver County Cracker(Pending FID 1H 2016)
Mariner East 262 MBbl/d Commitment
Marcus Hook Export
Gulf Coast Critical to
NGL Pricing
Appalachia
NGL transportation rates are expected to decline $0.12 to $0.15 per gallon by 2017 as pipeline options to domestic markets and export terminals go in-service (Mariner East 1 and 2, for example)
(MMBbl/d)
2015 GLOBAL LPG DEMANDGlobal LPG demand is 8.5 MMBbl/d and growing
40
POSITIVE OUTLOOK FOR LONG-TERM NGL MARKETS
Steady Global LPG Demand Growth Through 2035(1)
1. Source: PIRA NGL Study, September 2015.2. Source: IHS, Waterborne, SK Gas Analysis; Wood Mackenzie; Wood Mackenzie; PDH C3 capacity based on 25 MBbl/d = 650 Mt/y.
Multiple Factors Driving Global LPG Demand Growth Through 2020(2)
MM
Bbl
/d
0.0
0.33
0.67
Forecast global LPG demand growth of 800 MBbl/d to 1 MMBbl/d by 2020 to be driven by petrochem projects in Asia and Middle East as well as residential/commercial, alkylate and power generation demand− Naphtha cracker conversion to LPG another potential demand driver that has not yet been factored into analyst estimates ≈1 MMBbl/d
China KoreaHaiwei (2016) - 21 MBbl/d C3
SK Advanced (2016) - 27 MBbl/d C3
Ningbo Fuji (2016) - 29 MBbl/d C3
Fujian Meide (2016) - 29 MBbl/d C3
Tianjin Bohua 2 (2018) - 29 MBbl/d C3 United States
Fujian Meide 2 (2018) - 29 MBbl/d C3
Enterprise (3Q 2016)- 29 MBbl/d C3
Oriental Tangshan (2019) - 25 MBbl/d C3
Formosa (2017)- 25 MBbl/d C3
Firm and Likely PDH Underway (By 2020)
Total - 243 MBbl/d C3
Million Tons, Global PDH Capacity
1990 2000 2010 2020
20
10
0
41
14.7
13.0
11.4
9.8
8.2
6.5
4.9
3.3
1.7
U.S. Driven Global LPG Supply Through 2035(1)
MMBbl/d MMBbl/d1.3
1.0
0.7
0.3
-0.3
GLOBAL LPG DEMAND DRIVEN BYPETCHEM AND RES/COMMLargest end-use sectors for LPG are residential/commercial, which tends to grow with population and improvement in
living standards in the emerging markets− PIRA forecasting >1.0 MMBbl/d over next 5 years and >4.5 MMBbl/d of global LPG demand growth over next 20 years
421. PIRA NGL Study, September 2015.
MMBbl/d14.7
13.0
11.4
9.8
8.2
6.5
4.9
3.3
1.6
GLOBAL LPG TRADE DRIVEN BY U.S. SHALEThe U.S. is the largest single driver of the rapid expansion in LPG trade accounting for over 90% in trade growth
431. PIRA NGL Study, September 2015.
MMBbl/d5.2
4.6
3.9
3.3
2.6
2.0
1.3
0.7
United States
U.S. SHALE NGL EURS SUPPORT LPG TRADE GROWTH
441. PIRA NGL Study, September 2015.
• U.S. shale play NGL reserves are 50.8 billion barrels
• Eagle Ford, Marcellus, Utica, Bakken and Permian are the work horses of U.S. shale production growth
• Marcellus/Utica NGL resource estimate by PIRA is 9.7 billion barrels, in line with Antero estimate of ≈ 11.1 billion barrels
• The growth curve of each basin will ultimately be a function of downstream solutions and investment
(1)
(1)(1)
POSITIVE OUTLOOK FOR LONG-TERM ETHANE MARKETS AS WELL
U.S. Ethane Supply/Demand Balance Through 2020(1)
1. Source: Bentek, August 2015.2. Source: Citi research dated 7/15/2015.
U.S. Ethane Exports Through 2020(2)
U.S. ethane demand is projected to increase at an annual 3.5% CAGR through 2020, primarily based on an ≈8% CAGR for U.S. petrochemdemand and a 30% growth in exports primarily to Europe− The growth in shipping exports in 2016 and 2017 is driven by Enterprise Products’ 200 MBbl/d export facility on the Gulf Coast
-
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
MM
Bb/
d
Petchem Exports Rejection Total Supply (Net Stock Change)
U.S. Seaborne Ethane Exports Through 2020(2)
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
MB
bl/d
Ship Pipeline
250
200
150
100
50
MB
bl/d
U.S. exports increase significantly into 2016
and 2017 as EPD’s Morgan Point Facility
comes in-service
U.S. Ethane Rejection by Region Through 2020(1)
Access to both Marcus Hook and the Gulf Coast is
critical to optimizing ethane
netbacks
Rejection declines significantly into 2018
Unlike LPG, 80% of ethane will be
consumed in the U.S.
Petrochem demand increases at ≈8% CAGR through 2020
-
100
200
300
400
500
600
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
MB
bl/d
Williston PADD 4 PADD 1 (East Coast) PADD 2 PADD 3
No Northeast rejection after 2017
45
Northeast Ethane
Rejection
Exports
U.S. PetChem
LTM ProductionNTM Production ForecastAverage LTM Production
MAINTENANCE CAPITAL METHODOLOGY• Maintenance Capital Calculation Methodology – Low Pressure Gathering
– Estimate the number of new well connections needed during the forecast period in order to offset the natural production decline and maintain the average throughput volume on our system over the LTM period
– (1) Compare this number of well connections to the total number of well connections estimated to be made during such period, and
– (2) Designate an equal percentage of our estimated low pressure gathering capital expenditures as maintenance capital expenditures
Maintenance capital expenditures are cash expenditures (including expenditures for the construction or development of new capital assets or the replacement, improvement or expansion of existing capital assets) made to maintain, over the long term, our operating capacity or revenue
• Illustrative Example
LTM Forecast Period
Decline of LTM average throughput to be replaced with production volume
from new well connections
46
• Maintenance Capital Calculation Methodology – Fresh Water Distribution− Estimate the number of wells to which we would need to distribute fresh water during the forecast period in order to maintain
the average fresh water throughput volume on our system over the LTM period− (1) Compare this number of wells to the total number of new wells to which we expect to distribute fresh water during such
period, and− (2) Designate an equal percentage of our estimated water line capital expenditures as maintenance capital expenditures
ANTERO RESOURCES EBITDAX RECONCILIATION
47
EBITDAX Reconciliation
($ in millions) Quarter Ended LTM Ended12/31/2015 12/31/2015
EBITDAX:Net income including noncontrolling interest $175.6 $980.0Commodity derivative fair value (gains) (545.1) (2,381.5)Net cash receipts on settled derivatives instruments 269.9 856.6Interest expense 60.5 234.4Income tax expense (benefit) 77.2 575.9Depreciation, depletion, amortization and accretion 162.2 711.4Impairment of unproved properties 60.7 104.3Exploration expense 0.8 3.8Equity-based compensation expense 18.6 97.9State franchise taxes (0.1) 0.1Contract termination and rig stacking 27.6 38.5Consolidated Adjusted EBITDAX $307.8 $1,221.4
ANTERO MIDSTREAM EBITDA RECONCILIATION
48
EBITDA and DCF Reconciliation
$ in thousandsThree months ended
December 31,2014 2015
Reconciliation of Net Income to Adjusted EBITDA and Distributable Cash Flow: Net income $55,898 $49,008Add:
Interest expense 2.062 2,892Depreciation expense 17,290 23,152Contingent acquisition consideration accretion - 3,333Equity-based compensation 4,226 4,810
Adjusted EBITDA $79,476 $83,195Less:
Pre-water acquisition net income attributed to parent (22,234) -
Pre-water acquisition depreciation expense attributed to parent (3,086) -
Pre-water acquisition equity-based compensation expense attributed to parent (654) -
Pre-water acquisition interest expense attributed to parent (359) -Pre-IPO EBITDA (36,464) -
Adjusted EBITDA $16,679 83,195
Less:
Cash interest paid - attributable to Partnership (331) (2,934)
Income tax witholding upon vesting of Antero Midstream LP equity-based compensation awards - (4,806)Maintenance capital expenditures attributable to Partnership (1,157) (3,096)
Distributable Cash Flow $15,191 $72,359
CAUTIONARY NOTE
The SEC permits oil and gas companies, in their filings with the SEC, to disclose only proved, probable and possible reserve estimates (collectively, “3P”). Antero has provided internally generated estimates for proved, probable and possible reserves in this presentation in accordance with SEC guidelines and definitions, which have been audited by Antero’s third-party engineers. Unless otherwise noted, reserve estimates as of December 31, 2015 assume ethane rejection and strip pricing.
Actual quantities that may be ultimately recovered from Antero’s interests may differ substantially from the estimates in this presentation. Factors affecting ultimate recovery include the scope of Antero’s ongoing drilling program, which will be directly affected by commodity prices, the availability of capital, drilling and production costs, availability of drilling services and equipment, drilling results, lease expirations, transportation constraints, regulatory approvals and other factors, and actual drilling results, including geological and mechanical factors affecting recovery rates.
In this presentation:
• “3P reserves” refer to Antero’s estimated aggregate proved, probable and possible reserves as of December 31, 2015. The SEC prohibits companies from aggregating proved, probable and possible reserves in filings with the SEC due to the different levels of certainty associated with each reserve category.
• “EUR,” or “Estimated Ultimate Recovery,” refers to Antero’s internal estimates of per well hydrocarbon quantities that may bepotentially recovered from a hypothetical future well completed as a producer in the area. These quantities do not necessarily constitute or represent reserves within the meaning of the Society of Petroleum Engineer’s Petroleum Resource Management System or the SEC’s oil and natural gas disclosure rules.
• “Condensate” refers to gas having a heat content between 1250 BTU and 1300 BTU in the Utica Shale.
• “Highly-rich gas/condensate” refers to gas having a heat content between 1275 BTU and 1350 BTU in the Marcellus Shale and 1225 BTU and 1250 BTU in the Utica Shale.
• “Highly-rich gas” refers to gas having a heat content between 1200 BTU and 1275 BTU in the Marcellus Shale and 1200 BTU and 1225 BTU in the Utica Shale.
• “Rich gas” refers to gas having a heat content of between 1100 BTU and 1200 BTU.
• “Dry gas” refers to gas containing insufficient quantities of hydrocarbons heavier than methane to allow their commercial extraction or to require their removal in order to render the gas suitable for fuel use.
Regarding Hydrocarbon Quantities
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