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AlvinIndependentSchoolDistrict

Demographic Update

Spring 2016

Economic Conditions – Houston MSA

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UnemploymentRate

-0.2%

20,700 new jobsin 2015

National rate 1.9%

Job Growth

0.6%109 more than 2014

AnnualizedHome Starts

2,426

Sources: Texas Workforce Commission & Metrostudy

U.S. 5.3%Texas 4.4%

Houston MSA 4.8%Alvin 4.8%

27,899 new homes started in 2015, 2,426 less

than 2014

Houston Economic OverviewA Cooling in the Oil Boom

• Oil prices finished 2015 with a December 2015 average of $38 per barrel

• Market analysts are expecting oil prices to average $40 per barrel for 2016 as global supply builds and several major global economies experience an economic slowing

• The U.S. crude oil production is at its highest rates in three decades

• Houston ended 2015 with three straight months of near 10% year over year declines in home sales

• The Houston housing market is expected to cool through 2016, with homes staying on the market longer

• Houston home inventory was 3.2 months’ supply in December 2015, still well below the national rate of 5.1 months, and a “balanced market” of 6 months’ supply 3

• Brazoria County sees gains even as South and West Texas counties slow with the oil price drop

• Brazoria County’s refineries and petrochemical plans are booming with the cheaper natural gas prices, construction activity is on the rise

• Currently $20.5 billion is being invested in petrochemical plants along the Gulf Coast, with the majority set to come online in 2017

• The county had 18.8% year over year rise in single family permits in the end of 2015• County sales tax receipts rose more than 18% for the same time period• The City of Alvin had $24 million in new commercial permits in 2015, adding stores

such as Chicken Express, Planet Fitness, Burger King and an expansion at Amoco Federal Credit Union

• Alvin currently has the $1.2 billion C3 Petrocehmical plant project underway, set to come online in 2017 for propane dehydration

Brazoria County Economic Overview

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Local Economic Update

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Grand Parkway- Section B

• Section B is a 28-mile stretch of the proposed Grand Parkway from I-45 to SH 35 in Alvin then through to SH 288 near Rosharon

• The roadway would run along the southern border of Clear Creek ISD, just south of Westover Park and Magnolia Creek

• Currently in design stages, ROW acquisition could begin in 2016• Construction could start in 2017, with the roadway opening to traffic in 2020• The Grand Parkway could spur residential and commercial development

within Alvin ISD

Houston New Home Ranking Report

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ISD Ranked by Annual Closings – 4Q15

*Adjusted based on additional research by Templeton Demographics staff(Added Sierra Vista 1,000 lots; Sterling Lakes West 569 lots; Newport Lake Estates 199 lots)

Rank District Name Annual Starts Annual Closings VDL Future1 Fort Bend ISD 3,510 3,398 3,601 13,8212 Katy ISD 2,742 3,000 3,442 13,0953 Houston ISD 2,198 2,855 2,145 12,1044 Cypress‐Fairbanks ISD 2,375 2,385 4,130 9,4915 Lamar CISD 2,522 2,294 4,060 14,5146 Conroe ISD 2,076 1,930 3,877 11,4057 Klein ISD 1,494 1,591 2,211 2,8398 Humble ISD 1,111 1,144 1,524 9,5949 Tomball ISD 996 1,057 2,214 3,72210 Alvin ISD 1,052 975 2,011 11,820*11 Clear Creek ISD 882 753 1,286 1,96812 New Caney ISD 622 698 562 5,72113 Aldine ISD 572 689 805 1,85314 Spring ISD 451 426 769 1,93415 Goose Creek ISD 428 420 464 79316 Montgomery ISD 327 379 771 2,89617 Dickinson ISD 392 376 538 97718 Magnolia ISD 376 356 483 4,69719 Pearland ISD 421 352 325 32920 Sheldon ISD 375 343 399 2,281

New Housing Activity

• Alvin ISD had more than 1,000 new home starts in 2015, nearly double the number of starts in 2009, and a 13% rise over 2014

• District new home closings are up nearly 20% over 2014• While Houston MSA new home starts and closings have slowed,

Alvin ISD continues to have strong new home demand 7

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700Starts Closings Inventory

Starts 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Closings 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20151Q 182 136 195 143 205 231 1Q 145 116 178 178 156 2112Q 165 186 204 186 233 300 2Q 163 189 200 168 232 2753Q 196 181 204 174 252 249 3Q 211 199 193 158 188 2484Q 147 172 151 163 224 257 4Q 163 203 182 155 226 227

Total 690 675 754 666 914 1,037 Total 682 707 753 659 802 961

Annual Closings 4Q15

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Top 10 Subdivisions ‐ 4Q15 (Ranked by Annual Closings)

Rank SubdivisionAnnual Closings

Quarter Closings VDL

1 Sterling Lakes 148 28 862 Savannah 145 30 1753 Southlake 139 40 1654 Southern Trails 105 17 1525 Lakeland 89 13 06 Rodeo Palms 78 20 2577 Sedona Lakes 78 17 1788 Kendall Lakes 46 29 519 North Pointe Trails 32 7 010 Forest Heights 28 12 12

TOTALS 888 213 1,076

Vacant Developed Lots 4Q15

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Top 10 Subdivisions ‐ 4Q15 (Ranked by remaining VDL)

Rank SubdivisionAnnual Closings VDL Future

1 Meridiana 0 441 5,0612 Rodeo Palms 78 257 2023 Pomona (Duke)  0 257 7704 Sedona Lakes 78 178 2196 Savannah 145 175 1,2975 Southlake 139 165 1478 Southern Trails 105 152 07 Savannah Plantation 6 106 459 Sterling Lakes 148 86 010 Palm Crest 6 60 0

TOTALS 705 1,877 7,644

Future Lots 4Q15

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Top 10 Subdivisions ‐ 4Q15  (Ranked by Future Inventory)

Rank Subdivision VDL Future1 Meridiana 441 5,0612 Savannah 175 1,2973 Sierra Vista 0 8934 Pomona (Duke)  257 7705 Pomona (Jeter) 0 6806 Martha's Vineyard 0 4727 Lakeland 0 4588 Morgan's Landing 2 3249 Bluewater Lakes on Manvel 0 31210 Forest Heights 12 236

TOTALS 887 10,503

Overall Housing DataBy Elementary Attendance Zone

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Highest activity in the category

Second highest activity in the category

Third highest activity in the category

2016/17 ELEMENTARY ATTENDANCE ZONE

Annual Starts

Quarter Starts

Annual Closings

Quarter Closings

Under Const. Inventory Vacant 

Dev. Lots Future

ALVIN PRIMARY/ALVIN ELEMENTARY 27 0 28 1 4 9 111 45DUKE 155 60 112 17 100 124 411 770HASSE 13 3 20 6 4 9 2 178HOOD‐CASE 37 10 28 12 14 19 12 708JETER 81 35 78 20 50 60 257 1,081MAREK 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0MASON 134 31 167 30 41 72 178 989MERIDIANA 192 39 170 35 77 119 592 6,061PASSMORE 0 0 0 0 0 0 15 18SAVANNAH LAKES 163 32 145 30 150 174 175 1,200STEVENSON/DISNEY 11 0 10 0 3 3 42 324TWAIN 89 17 78 36 16 28 51 103WILDER 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0YORK 150 30 139 40 35 63 165 246

Grand Total 1,052 257 975 227 494 680 2,011 11,723

Housing Activity Overview

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• Alvin ISD has 2,011 lots available to build on

• The district has 11,820 future planned homes

_̂

_̂

_̂STHY6

MERIDIANAELEM

MANVELHIGH

MANVELJH

¬«288 ¬«6

¬«288

MASON

MERIDIANA

Active Single-Family Housing Activity

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Meridiana

• 5,504 total lots• 237 VDL• Started two homes in January 2016• Sections 3 & 7 with 115 lots were

approved in January 2016• Anticipate building 200 in 2016• Meridiana Elementary

_̂

_̂

_̂

_̂

18ELEM

JETERELEM

RODEOPALMSJH

DUKEELEM

DUKE

JETER

MASON

SAVANNAHLAKES

YORK

Active Single-Family Housing Activity

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Pomona• Future MF: starting in 4-5 years, 25

acres for MF, 22 acres for Townhomes (approx. 150-180 units)

• Total SF= 1,752 lots• Duke = 1,072 lots• Jeter = 680 lots

• 257 VDL• Anticipate building 190 in 2016 • Split between Duke Elementary and

Jeter Elementary

_̂MERIDIANA

ELEM

¬«288

¬«288

MASON

MERIDIANA

Sierra Vista• 893 total lots• Anticipate phase 1 with 242 lots

delivering 3rd quarter of 2017• First homes occupied late 2017• Anticipating 180 homes built per year• Meridiana Elementary

Future Single-Family Housing Activity

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_̂_̂

DISNEYELEM

STEVENSONPRIM

¬«35

¬«35

ALVIN/ALVIN

MERIDIANA

STEVENSON/DISNEY

GRAND PARKWAY

GRAND PARKWAY

Highland Resources DevelopmentFuture Subdivision

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Future Housing Development • 5,440 Acres• Total lot count unknown at this time• Developer = Highland Resources Development• Developer has no development plans at this time• Split between Alvin, Angleton, and Danbury ISDs• MUD development agreement approved by city • Stevenson/Disney Elementary

_̂

FM 2234

WILDERELEM

MAREK

WILDER

Multi-Family Activity

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AvionShadow

Creek Ranch

BroadstoneShadow Creek

Ranch

BroadstoneShadow Creek Ranch

• 382 Units• Construction Completion Summer 2016• First units currently leasing• Wilder Elementary

AvionShadow Creek Ranch

• 276 Units• Construction Completion April 2016• First units currently leasing• Wilder Elementary

2015-16 Apartment Yield Analysis

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2014‐15 2015‐16 ChangeUnits 5,374 5,374* 0Students 1,515 1,584 69Yield 0.28 0.29 0.01*Based on the same 31 apartment complexes present in 2014‐15 and 2015‐16. New complexes were not considered in this comparison 

2015-16 Apartment Yield By Year Built

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Apartment and Single Family Analysis

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2013‐14 2014‐15 2015‐162 Year

DifferenceTotal Students 19,774 20,818 22,134 2,360Out of District 294 321 363 69Unmatched 71 149 229 158Total Students (Geocoded Inside District) 19,409 20,348 21,542 2,133Multi‐Family 

Students in MF 1,253 1,515 1,618 365MF Units 5,014 5,374 5,724 710% Students in MF 6.4% 7.4% 7.5% 1.1%MF Yield 0.25 0.28 0.28 0.03

Single FamilyStudents in SF 16,570 17,390 18,410 1,840SF Parcels* N/A 33,120 34,973 N/A% Students in SF 85.4% 85.5% 85.5% 0.1%SF Yield  N/A 0.53 0.53 N/A

Manufactured HomesStudents in MH 1,445 1,443 1,514 69MH Units 1,666 1,666 1,666 0% Students in MH 7.4% 7.1% 7.0% ‐0.4%MH Yield 0.87 0.87 0.91 0.04

• The number of out of district students has risen by 69 students over 3 years• Between this school year and the 2013/14 school year, Alvin ISD had 365

more students living in apartments• The percentage of students in single family homes has remained steady for

several years

* Data retrieved from County Appraisal Districts. Parcels not available for 2013-14 year.

Ten Year ForecastBy Grade Level

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• Alvin ISD will reach 25,500 students by 2018• 5 year growth = 6,087 students• 2020/21 enrollment = 28,245 students• 10 year growth = 13,286 students• 2025/26 enrollment = 35,444 students

*Yellow box = largest grade per year*Green box = second largest grade per year

Year (Oct.) EE/PK K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th TotalTotal 

Growth % 

Growth 2011/12 833 1,478 1,428 1,422 1,434 1,379 1,338 1,450 1,299 1,345 1,428 1,196 1,221 958 18,2092012/13 872 1,518 1,541 1,464 1,408 1,481 1,434 1,383 1,476 1,336 1,546 1,300 1,136 991 18,886 677 3.7%2013/14 842 1,657 1,604 1,631 1,517 1,412 1,527 1,469 1,418 1,507 1,524 1,453 1,273 975 19,809 923 4.9%2014/15 852 1,670 1,770 1,676 1,668 1,570 1,504 1,583 1,506 1,484 1,662 1,416 1,429 1,076 20,866 1,057 5.3%2015/16 844 1,720 1,800 1,855 1,758 1,746 1,612 1,628 1,679 1,564 1,719 1,579 1,419 1,235 22,158 1,292 6.2%2016/17 844 1,796 1,866 1,894 1,942 1,837 1,822 1,681 1,689 1,760 1,787 1,623 1,546 1,248 23,334 1,176 5.3%2017/18 844 1,875 1,955 1,961 1,983 2,023 1,926 1,887 1,723 1,751 1,997 1,663 1,575 1,353 24,517 1,182 5.1%2018/19 844 1,945 2,040 2,055 2,050 2,056 2,095 1,972 1,939 1,789 2,008 1,864 1,587 1,389 25,632 1,116 4.6%2019/20 844 2,036 2,102 2,142 2,154 2,146 2,136 2,143 2,040 2,016 2,037 1,881 1,790 1,398 26,864 1,232 4.8%2020/21 844 2,117 2,207 2,187 2,231 2,231 2,237 2,250 2,230 2,114 2,305 1,903 1,809 1,580 28,245 1,380 5.1%2021/22 844 2,202 2,284 2,309 2,283 2,326 2,324 2,308 2,331 2,314 2,377 2,158 1,824 1,599 29,484 1,239 4.4%2022/23 844 2,292 2,398 2,394 2,424 2,389 2,425 2,418 2,369 2,428 2,632 2,224 2,073 1,614 30,924 1,440 4.9%2023/24 844 2,396 2,476 2,506 2,506 2,549 2,500 2,502 2,504 2,463 2,759 2,462 2,134 1,837 32,438 1,514 4.9%2024/25 844 2,496 2,590 2,611 2,637 2,628 2,668 2,610 2,585 2,607 2,789 2,582 2,361 1,892 33,901 1,463 4.5%2025/26 844 2,589 2,702 2,724 2,741 2,762 2,752 2,785 2,710 2,691 2,956 2,613 2,479 2,096 35,444 1,543 4.6%

Ten Year Forecast By Elementary Campus

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• Alvin ISD elementary campuses should continue to add close to 500 students each year for the foreseeable future

• The strongest growth will continue to be felt on campuses in the western portion of the district (Duke, York, Savannah, Mason, Jeter)

*Yellow box = enrollment exceeds stated permanent building capacity*Red box = enrollment exceeds stated capacity with temp/flex buildings

Permanent Building Capacity

Cap. W/Temp/ Flex/Bldgs

ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS

Campus 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 2025/26Alvin Primary/Elementary 1,186 1,450 1,161 1,248 1,156 1,149 1,146 1,170 1,178 1,181 1,180 1,185 1,197Hood‐Case Elementary 750 926 685 698 724 756 769 791 814 830 840 863 875Jeter Elementary 800 888 923 760 797 833 888 934 973 1,015 1,022 1,031 1,031Hasse Elementary 800 800 598 747 779 800 824 832 837 833 829 830 829Marek Elementary 800 888 862 894 789 778 767 754 781 778 788 801 751Mark Twain Elementary 800 800 839 752 767 772 768 790 795 803 811 818 823Mason Elementary 653 829 724 678 638 646 643 648 659 680 687 708 722Passmore Elementary 750 838 750 750 763 765 760 766 762 763 760 762 760Savannah Lakes Elementary 800 932 799 827 780 759 728 725 740 761 789 827 856Stevenson/Disney Elementary 1,185 1,317 1,220 1,235 1,243 1,263 1,276 1,276 1,281 1,350 1,422 1,507 1,604Wilder Elementary 800 932 866 910 830 837 841 795 795 791 789 795 803York Elementary 800 800 889 897 721 761 810 861 912 969 1,028 1,085 1,137Duke Elementary 800 888 995 896 638 678 715 748 778 803 830 868 927Meridiana Elementary 800 800 0 678 805 958 1,107 1,258 1,433 1,626 1,785 1,969 2,143Elementary 17 800 800 0 0 653 688 723 752 781 816 851 892 978Elementary 18 800 800 0 0 468 623 776 929 1,037 1,150 1,340 1,506 1,652ELEMENTARY TOTALS 12,050 13,370 11,311 11,970 12,551 13,066 13,541 14,029 14,556 15,149 15,751 16,447 17,088Elementary Absolute Growth 620 659 581 515 475 488 527 593 602 696 641Elementary Percent Growth 5.80% 5.83% 4.85% 4.10% 3.64% 3.60% 3.76% 4.07% 3.97% 4.42% 3.90%

Ten Year ForecastBy Secondary Campus

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• Strong growth also felt at the secondary level as large elementary classes begin to move through the district

*Clarification – distribution of students between Manvel High & future Shadow Creek High is yet to be determined. The student numbers included here reflect Shadow Creek High opening with grades 9,10,&11 in year 2016. Community input meetings will dictate the final decision for opening year grade levels at Shadow Creek High. 

*Yellow box = enrollment exceeds stated permanent building capacity*Red box = enrollment exceeds stated capacity with temp/flex buildings

Permanent Building Capacity

Cap. W/Temp/ Flex/Bldgs

ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS

Campus 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 2025/26Alvin Junior High 1,000 1,000 844 847 811 835 862 890 888 891 915 943 972Fairview Junior High 1,000 1,000 722 748 746 787 834 867 875 889 913 932 947Harby Junior High 832 904 797 805 810 838 917 926 927 926 966 989 1,012Rodeo Palms 1,000 1,000 596 751 838 996 1,121 1,258 1,421 1,571 1,679 1,817 1,943Manvel Junior High 1,000 1,000 874 942 1,061 1,101 1,231 1,297 1,480 1,596 1,717 1,812 1,968Ryan Junior High 1,000 1,144 1,037 1,036 1,094 1,142 1,233 1,355 1,361 1,341 1,278 1,308 1,343JUNIOR HIGH TOTALS 5,832 6,048 4,870 5,129 5,360 5,699 6,198 6,593 6,952 7,214 7,468 7,801 8,185Junior High Absolute Growth 297 259 231 339 499 395 359 262 254 333 384Junior High Percent Growth 6.49% 5.32% 4.50% 6.32% 8.76% 6.37% 5.45% 3.77% 3.52% 4.46% 4.92%Alvin High School 2,640 2,760 2,653 2,718 2,862 2,886 2,940 2,988 3,023 3,162 3,259 3,319 3,385Manvel High School 2,685 2,901 3,119 2,043 1,702 1,612 1,669 1,870 1,979 2,128 2,333 2,509 2,733Shadow Creek High School 2,500 2,500 0 1,263 1,843 2,169 2,316 2,558 2,776 3,072 3,419 3,616 3,845HIGH SCHOOL TOTALS 7,825 8,161 5,772 6,024 6,407 6,667 6,925 7,416 7,778 8,362 9,011 9,444 9,963High School Absolute Growth 386 252 383 260 258 491 362 584 649 433 519High School Percent Growth 7.17% 4.37% 6.36% 4.06% 3.87% 7.09% 4.88% 7.51% 7.76% 4.81% 5.50%Assets 300 300 204 210 198 199 199 206 197 198 207 208 207Brazoria Co. J JAEP 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1ALTERNATIVE TOTALS 300 300 205 211 199 200 200 207 198 199 208 209 208DISTRICT TOTALS 26,007 27,879 22,158 23,334 24,517 25,632 26,864 28,245 29,484 30,924 32,438 33,901 35,444District Absolute Growth 1,292 1,176 1,183 1,115 1,232 1,381 1,239 1,440 1,514 1,463 1,543District Percent Growth 6.2% 5.3% 5.1% 4.5% 4.8% 5.1% 4.4% 4.9% 4.9% 4.5% 4.6%

Summary

• In 2015, Brazoria County had an 18% year over year rise in new home permits.

• Currently $20.5 billion is being invested in petrochemical plants along the Gulf Coast, including $1.2 billion in Alvin’s C3 Petrochemical plant.

• Alvin ISD started more than 1,000 new homes in 2015.

• Meridiana, Savanah Lakes and Duke 2016/17 elementary zones account for roughly half of all new home activity in Alvin ISD.

• Meridiana Elementary is anticipated to open in 2016 with 678 students, and enroll more than 800 students by 2017.

• Fall 2016 enrollment growth of 5.3% with an increase of 1,176 students.

• Fall 2016 enrollment = 23,334.

• Five year enrollment growth of 6,087 with fall 2020 enrollment = 28,245.

• Ten-Year enrollment growth of 13,286 with fall 2025 enrollment = 35,444.

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