alternatives for a sustainable energy future · alternatives for a sustainable energy future dr....
TRANSCRIPT
Alternatives for a
Sustainable Energy Future
Dr. Gary Kendall
Deputy Director, CPSL South Africa
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How did we
get here?
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Before the 18th Century
Two separate components of the “human” energy
system:
1. Kinetic energy system
– Governing any process that required motion
2. Thermal energy system
– Governing any process that required heat
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Kinetic Energy = Motion
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Thermal Energy = Heat
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How Everything Changed
In 1712, Thomas Newcomen's steam engine first deployed, to pump water from
flooded mines in England… by turning heat into motion
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The Industrial Revolution
In the Early 19th Century
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Crude Oil: Disruptive Technology
http://e
n.w
ikip
edia
.org
/wik
i/F
ile:J
ohn
_D
._R
ockefe
ller_
1885
.jpg
http://www.wired.com/images/article/full/2007/08/Edwin_Drake_580x.jpg
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Electricity: Disruptive Technology
http://www.ge.com/innovation/timeline/eras/inspiration_to_industry.html
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Automobile: Disruptive Technology
http://www.speedace.info/speedace_images/thomas_edison_electric_car.jpg
http://c
om
mons.w
ikim
edia
.org
/wik
i/F
ile:H
en
ry_
ford
_1919
.jpg
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US Automotive Trends
Source: http://mobikefed.org/2009/03/us-vehicle-miles-driven-continues-to.php
US Vehicle Ownership Growth (Federal Highways Administration)
1900
Virtually zero
1950
~ one per
Household
2000
> one per
Licensed Driver
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Transport = Mobility = Accessibility
Accessibility is:
the ease with which desired social and
economic activities can be reached from a
specific point in space US Department of Transport
Distance impedes accessibility
Mobility overcomes distance
Mobility improves accessibility
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Mobility & Commerce
Source: TÜV Rheinland (http://www.tuv.com/vn/en/iso_28000.html)
Typical
Value Chain
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Oil Dependency of Transport
Coal Crude Oil Biomass
Natural Gas Hydro Other
Nuclear Renewables
Crude Oil
Biofuels
Other
Source: IEA Key Energy Statistics & WEO 2010 (data for 2008)
2%
Biofuel
93%
Crude Oil
5%
Other
6%
Crude Oil
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Oil Consumption & GDP
Sources: World Bank, IEA, BP Statistical Review
Brazil
China
India
Indonesia
Japan
Russia UK
USA
Saudi Arabia
Norway
DenmarkVenezuela
South Africa
1
10
100
1 000 10 000 100 000
Oil
con
sum
pti
on
pe
r ca
pit
a (b
bl)
GDP per capita (2000 US$)
2009 Oil Consumption vs GDP
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The Unstoppable Force?
Mobility drives economic development
Motorised transport – cars, trucks, buses, ships,
planes – greatly enhances levels of mobility and
therefore economic activity
Crude oil supplies 93% of transport fuel globally
For ~150 years, oil supplies have grown almost
continuously to satisfy rising demand
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Looking
Forwards
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Oil Reserves & Consumption
OPEC 77%
FSU 9%
OECD 7%
RoW 7%
12% 5% 53% 30%
Reserves
Consumption
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Motorisation by Nation
Source: World Bank, 2007 data
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Co
nsu
mtp
ion
(m
b/d
)
RoW
South Africa
Brazil
India
China
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1001
96
5
19
67
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Co
nsu
mtp
ion
(m
b/d
)
RoW
South Africa
Brazil
India
China
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Some BASIC Projections
Historical data: BP Statistical Review 2011
Actual
Projected
x3.2
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Squeezed Exports
0
5
10
15
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25
30
1965
1966
1967
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2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
kb/d
Year
Middle East: Production & ConsumptionProduction
Consumption
Source: BP Statistical Review 2011
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Drill, Baby, Drill!
0
200
400
600
800
1 000
1 200
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100
150
200
250
300
Au
g-1
98
7
May
-19
88
Feb
-19
89
No
v-1
98
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Au
g-1
99
0
May
-19
91
Feb
-19
92
No
v-1
99
2
Au
g-1
99
3
May
-19
94
Feb
-19
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No
v-1
99
5
Au
g-1
99
6
May
-19
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Feb
-19
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No
v-1
99
8
Au
g-1
99
9
May
-20
00
Feb
-20
01
No
v-2
00
1
Au
g-2
00
2
May
-20
03
Feb
-20
04
No
v-2
00
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Au
g-2
00
5
May
-20
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Feb
-20
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No
v-2
00
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Au
g-2
00
8
May
-20
09
Feb
-20
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No
v-2
01
0
Au
g-2
01
1
Rig C
ou
nt
Oil
Pro
du
ctio
n,
kb/d
Rig Count
0
200
400
600
800
1 000
1 200
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Au
g-1
98
7
May
-19
88
Feb
-19
89
No
v-1
98
9
Au
g-1
99
0
May
-19
91
Feb
-19
92
No
v-1
99
2
Au
g-1
99
3
May
-19
94
Feb
-19
95
No
v-1
99
5
Au
g-1
99
6
May
-19
97
Feb
-19
98
No
v-1
99
8
Au
g-1
99
9
May
-20
00
Feb
-20
01
No
v-2
00
1
Au
g-2
00
2
May
-20
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Feb
-20
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No
v-2
00
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Au
g-2
00
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May
-20
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Feb
-20
07
No
v-2
00
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Au
g-2
00
8
May
-20
09
Feb
-20
10
No
v-2
01
0
Au
g-2
01
1
Rig C
ou
nt
Oil
Pro
du
ctio
n,
kb/d
Production
US Oil Rig Count versus Production
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Approaching the Energy Cliff
Spindletop, Texas Deepwater Horizon, Gulf of Mexico
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Burn, Baby, Burn!
BIOMASS
COAL OIL SANDS
NATURAL GAS
CONVENTIONAL
CRUDE OIL
“Alternative Fuels”
CO2 Emissions from Fossil Fuel Use
27
Cancun Agreements (2010)
Further recognizes that deep cuts in global
greenhouse gas emissions are required...
so as to hold the increase in global
average temperature below 2°C above
pre-industrial levels, and that Parties
should take urgent action to meet this
long-term goal, consistent with science
and on the basis of equity.
Maintaining a Safe Climate
28
IPCC 4th Assessment Report (2007) – Global GHG emissions cuts of 50-85% by 2050 (from
2000 base year) likely insufficient to avoid crossing the 2°C threshold
Required cut from 2008 levels to 2050 is 60-88%
Per capita cuts based on estimated global population of 9 billion by 2050 is 71-91%
How Deep are the Cuts?
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Prof. David MacKay (2009) This is a cut so deep the best way to think about it is no more fossil fuels
Shell energy scenarios to 2050 (2007) It would require global GHG emissions to peak before 2015, a zero-emission power sector by 2050 and a near zero-emission transport sector in the same time period, complete electrification of the residential sector, with remaining energy-related emissions limited to niche areas of transport and industrial production (of cement and metals for example)
No More Fossil Fuels
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Policy Framework: Energy Hierarchy
Energy Conservation
Energy Efficiency
Renewable Energy
Carbon Management
BAU Fossil Fuel
Dem
and s
ide
Supply
sid
e
32
Energy Conservation
• Demand reduction is key
• Cheap oil paradigm is finished
• Recognise mobility as a means to an
end: providing access
• New business models will be essential
to maintain prosperity, quality of life
• Public policy & master planning must
apply sustainability lens to facilitate
modal shift
Energy Conservation
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Modal Shift
Source: Wakeford 2011 (in manuscript)
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Energy Efficiency
Energy Efficiency
• Demand: appliance energy efficiency
– Reduce kWh/km
– Electromobility: EV is 5 times more efficient
• Supply: four self-evident truths
1. Large is better than small
2. Constant load is better than variable load
3. Few is better than many
4. Stationary is better than mobile
• Rule of thumb: for any given resource,
electricity beats liquid fuels
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Renewable Energy
• Physical renewables: numerous and
abundant = secure
• Can be sustainable, zero carbon
– Wind, wave, tidal, solar, geothermal, hydro
• All generate electrons, not liquid or
gaseous fuels
• Biological renewables: sustainability
and carbon advantage less clear
• Four self-evident truths still hold
Renewable Energy
36
Carbon Management
• Supply side = decarbonising energy
– Reduce gCO2/kWh
• CCS applicable to power plants and
industrial facilities = stationary
• Fuel switching (e.g. coal to gas) has
greatest potential in electric power
• Options for in transport sector are
limited, inefficient use of resources
– e.g. fuel switch from oil to LPG, CNG, GTL
Carbon Management
37
BAU Fossil Fuel
• Core business of oil majors lies at the
very bottom of the hierarchy
• Strategies largely driven by investors’
“replacement of reserves” imperative
• Energy-intensive unconventionals
grow relative share of reserves
• Liquid fuel paradigm is primitive:
inefficient, insecure, costly, dumb
• Oil industry must transform or expire
within 40 years
BAU Fossil Fuel
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A Primitive Economy: Fire + Wheel
Source: http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/global500/2011/full_list/
0
50
100
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450
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Re
ven
ue
(U
S$ B
n)
Rank
Fortune Top 25 Corporations (2011)
45%
16%
40%
Oil
Automotive
Other
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An Impartial Guide to the Future?
Figure: BP Energy Outlook 2030
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The future ain’t what it used to be…
0
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40
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120
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Pro
ject
ed
De
amd
n, M
b/d
IEA World Energy Outlook, 20XX Edition
IEA “Business As Usual” Oil Demand Projections 2010 2020 2030
Source: IEA (www.iea.org)
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Closing Thoughts
All life on Earth exists within the solar income constraint
Human beings are (currently) the exception – it is foolish
to imagine we can continue like this without consequences
The challenge:
1. Re-engineer transport systems – and economies – to
exist within the solar income constraint
2. Generate good socio-economic outcomes based on
increasing access, not increasing mobility
3. Redefine progress, move beyond growth, discard
primitive, dumb, inefficient, fire-based energy system
