alt c 2015 slideshare

TEL strategies for transient technologies

Colin LoughlinUniversity of Surrey

Department of Technology Enhanced Learning

Abstract

‘In turbulent times success, and sometimes survival, depend upon the ability to distinguish between what is changing and what is staying the same‘ (Goodyear & Retalis, 2010, p.1).Moore’s Law (1965) states that computer processing power will double every year, the pace of change in gene sequencing has followed a similar path: ‘It took us 15 years to sequence HIV […] now we can sequence Sars in 31 days’ (Kurzweil in Sutherland, 2005). However what appears to be a stable linear development is actually exponential and, while few suggest that the speed of change will increase indefinitely, we are in a period of unprecedented technological transformation. ‘The Velocity of Innovation has increased dramatically [and] is itself a key variable in the velocity of obsolescence’ (Jensen, 2014). Development and product lifecycles have reduced significantly in recent years. For instance vinyl records remained the primary medium for listening to music for over fifty years, CDs were dominant for just twenty years and digital downloads of music - sales of which only recently overtook CDs, are already in decline. The development-to-obsolescence lifespan of technological innovation is shortening, as is the speed of adoption. CDs took ten years to establish themselves, iTunes just two. The adoption of new technologies is becoming viral in nature; difficult to predict and impossible to control.

Kurzweil (2005) forecast that we would be in the ‘knee of the exponential curve’ in 2014 and, thus at the point of ‘explosive growth’ (ibid) in technological innovation. Ironically, despite housing departments which are the seedbeds of research and development, Higher Education Institutions (HEIs) are ill-equipped to deal with rapid change. Institutional infrastructures and procedures lack agility and may struggle to respond to technologies which come and go in less than five years.

In this presentation we will explore some of the challenges facing HEIs and offer alternative visions. Hiding behind the ‘walled garden’ will not protect universities from a tidal-wave of technological change. Whilst it may not be possible to predict exactly which software or hardware we will be using in five years time, there are underlying trends such as geo-location, big data, voice-recognition and wearable technology which are likely to form part of that future; additionally, emerging phenomena such as citizen science could transform entire disciplines. The challenge therefore is to avoid the mire of redundancy while facilitating an ‘edgeless university’, allowing future innovation to permeate and flourish.

The tea-towel plays music…

Play music though the tea-towel and win a prize!

What are transient technologies?

All technologies are transient; eventually we find a better/cheaper/easier way of doing things:

• Letterpress gave way to lithography

• Steam trains gave way to electric

• Valve to transistor radios

So what’s new?

The speed at which these changes are taking place.

Time to mass adoption…

Drag picture to placeholder or click icon to add


http://www.singularity.com/charts/

Transition periods

Vinyl dominated the music industry for 60 years, the transition to CDs took 10 years.

CDs reigned for only 20 years and the transition to iTunes took just 2 years…

… less than two years after that, iTunes is in decline, with music streaming taking over.

Singularity – Ray Kurzweil

http://www.singularity.com/charts/page50.html

Kurzweil says by the year 2045: progress will be so rapid it outstrips humans' ability to comprehend it.

http://www.singularity.com/charts/page50.html

Speed of technological development in computing




Solar Panels

2012 :3D PV-cel with 30% more energy efficiency


Source: Cisco systems

The number of devices connected to IP networks will be more than three times the global population by 2019

http://www.symplio.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/09/internet_of_things_infographic_3final.jpg

How does this affect HE

Two areas of potential impact:• New things or applications, or things used in new ways that come from left

field.• Stuff that’s been around a while that suddenly becomes ubiquitous.

The nature of exponential development means that technology can be around a long time before it becomes an overnight success.

Things change when it becomes:Cheap, Reliable, Easy



The Future?

Institutional attitudes

The four stages of acceptance

IgnoranceIrrelevanceImportant (but not for us)I always told you so


All truth passes through three stages. First, it is ridiculed. Second, it is violently opposed. Third, it is accepted as being self-evident.—Arthur Schopenhauer, German philosopher (1788 – 1860)


What all this leads to is resistence…

‘Resistance seem[s] to be an inevitable outcome of even the smallest and least controversial of innovations […] It permeate[s] all aspects of the implementation’ (Bryant, 2014).

‘If you’re not going to support the technology, then don’t put it in the classroom. It’s worse than not having it.’Bill Lewis, Arizona State University (JISC - https://www.jisc.ac.uk/guides/learning-spaces/evaluating-use-of-technology)

Agile development

Assumption that ‘problems are fully specifiable, and that an optimal and predictable solution exists for every problem’

Agile development is ‘characterized by social inquiry in which extensive collaboration and communication provide the basis for collective action. Diverse stakeholders […] go through repeated cycles of thought-action-reflection that foster an environment of learning and adaptation. Team members, empowered with more discretionary and decision-making powers, are not confined to a specialized role. This increases the diversity/variety of the teams and enables them to self-organize and respond with alacrity to emergent situations.’

‘Agile methodologies require a shift from command-and control management to leadership-and-collaboration. The organizational form that facilitates this shift needs the right blend of autonomy and cooperation to achieve the advantages of synergy while providing flexibility and responsiveness’

Agile development

‘aspects of universities […] are typically expected to persist for years, decades, even centuries. This very persistence can be one reason why university structures have been set up to be rather slow, un-agile and rather risk averse.’

Uniformity vrs individuality‘A substantial part of an agile team-leader’s role is identifying and removing barriers to a team being able to do its job.’

Continuity vrs agility‘A software project is delivered and done. Yes it may be revised, but this is treated as a new project.’

Strategy for transient technologies

Institutional strategyAgile based approach

tech projects have rolling iterationsopen/porous networksallow for flexibility

Department strategyprovide ‘just in time’ trainingencourage and support use of non-core technologiesallow autonomy

ExamplesRemove admin only access to intuitional machinesEnable full functionality of existing software (wordpress)End one size fits all, PC image (always out of date and clunky)

Thank You!

[email protected]

References

Goodyear, P. & Retalis, S. (2010) Technology-enhanced learning: design patterns and pattern languages. Rotterdam; Boston, Sense Publishers.

Jensen (2014) Positive Rate of Climb - A Blog by Troy Jensen. [Online]. Available from: http://positiverateofclimb.blogspot.co.uk/ [Accessed: 12 March 2015].

Kurzweil, R. (2005) The singularity is near: when humans transcend biology. New York, Viking.

Sutherland, J. (2005) The ideas interview: Ray Kurzweil. [Online]. 2005. the Guardian. Available from: http://www.theguardian.com/science/2005/nov/21/academicexperts.elearning [Accessed: 12 March 2015].