alliance pipeline · highlights 2016 financial results as strong as ever; 2017 q1 results exceed...
TRANSCRIPT
Forward-Looking Information
Certain information contained in this presentation constitutes forward-
looking statements. The words “anticipate”, “expects” and “expected to”
and similar expressions are intended to identify such forward-looking
statements. Although Alliance believes that these statements are based on
information and assumptions which are current, reasonable and complete,
these statements are necessarily subject to a variety of risks and
uncertainties including, but not limited to, future operating performance,
regulation, economic conditions and fundamentals affecting the oil and gas
producing and marketing industries. Should one or more of these risks or
uncertainties materialize or fail to materialize, or should underlying
assumptions prove incorrect, actual results may vary materially from those
expected.
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Alliance Overview
1.65 Bcf/d annual firm capacity from WCSB to Chicago
250 mmcf/d receipt capacity out of the Bakken
Robust maintenance program ensures next to new capability
Transporting approximately 140,000 bpd of NGLs
Ability to transport 1,150 Btu/cf commingled gas
Reliability over 99%
System Capability
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D
Alliance Advantages – Receipt Zone
Runs right through the heart of
the prolific Montney and
Duvernay plays
Offers producers ability to
avoid significant field capital
Complementary to future
potential LNG developments
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Montney
Duvernay
Alliance Advantages – Transmission Zones
Alliance Trading Pool (“ATP”)
offers options to shippers
Economic tolling is attractive
to shippers
Collects associated gas from
the Bakken oil play
High pressure line and pipe
characteristics allow unique
ability to long haul liquids
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Bakken
Alliance Advantages – Delivery Zone
Delivers gas to world class
Aux Sable facility that is
capable of processing
2.1 Bcf/d
Delivery header has over
6 Bcf/d of connectivity
Delivers gas & liquids into a
diverse and large market
Alliance Chicago Exchange
(“ACE”) allows for additional
commercial opportunities
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Highlights
2016 financial results as strong as ever; 2017 Q1 results exceed budget
Alliance achieving revenues comparable to previous cost of service contracts
Corporate redesign and operational performance has led to significant permanent cost
reductions
Enhanced ability to profit from market opportunities by aligning operational capabilities with
suite of service offerings
Success with new services offering underpins more robust financial forecasts
Strong financial
results
Sold out all firm annual receipt capacity through 2018 and 90% in 2019 and 2020
During 2016, Alliance sold all available seasonal firm capacity and successfully used short-
term firm and interruptible services to capture incremental producer demand for our
transportation service
Already contracted significant 2017/18 winter seasonal volumes at a significant premium to
our firm toll to creditworthy parties
Market optionality and operational capability have created significant interest in contract
extensions and possible system expansions
Substantial
demand for new
service offerings
WCSB long on gas – export options desired to lessen AECO dependence
Long term supply forecasts and Alberta-Chicago Basis favourable to long term Alliance utilization
Montney proving competitive to any play in North America: our shippers are in prominent areas
LNG exports from Canada’s west coast highly unlikely prior to 2022
Downstream connections allow Alliance shippers to be a competitive gas supply source to U.S.
LNG facilities
Robust
fundamentals
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Operational Excellence
In 2016, achieved highest compressor fleet availability in Alliance’s
history at 99.1%
Successfully completed the Regina Bypass project on time with full
revenue and cost recovery
– Also used window to install NGL scrubber at Blueberry, check valve in US
and complete all planned maintenance (safely completed 10,000 hours of
activity during the outage period)
Producers value the asset performance and lack of constraints/
bottlenecks on our system
– Consistently provide reliable transportation out of high activity production
areas
Our operational dependability and producers’ need for certainty on
production takeaway, has led producers to bid on seasonal and
short term firm rather than take chances with Interruptible
Transportation (“IT”)
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Annual Firm Receipt Capacity Sold Out Through 2018 90% Contracted in 2019 and 2020
October 31, 2017 ROFR For
expiring 3-year contracts
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Seasonal Firm Service Contracted Above Planned Levels and at significant premiums to base tolls
1.20
1.25
1.30
1.35
1.40
1.45
1.50
1.55
1.60
Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 Jan-17 May-17 Sep-17 Jan-18
Bcf
/d
Seasonal
Firm Services
Target Year Round Firm & Seasonal Firm 1.395 Bcf/d
2016 Alliance Canada Transportation Revenues:
Long-term Firm: $378 MM
Seasonal Firm: $47 MM
Firm contracts = 92% of transportation revenues
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Significant Utilization of Interruptible Service in addition to elevated levels of contracted firm service
$38 Million of Canadian and US IT Revenue in 2016
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Regina bypass
outage
Linepack Positioning Supports Commercial Flexibility
Operational reliability allowed for strategic positioning and
responsiveness of linepack to support commercial endeavours
Canadian side of pipe open to
accept increased receipts
U.S. side of pipe poised to meet
market demand
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Alliance Provides Economic Uplift for Producers
DELPHI ENERGY (February 2017 Corporate Presentation): “Secured firm service with
Alliance to access Chicago gas market for better pricing and fewer curtailments.” When
speaking of Alliance’s Full Path Service (“FFPS”): “Current temporary and permanent
assignments generate premiums over cost.”
FIRST ENERGY (August 24, 2016): “Alliance Pipeline system has captured a pricing premium
for the shippers/producers that are able to get gas onto this system.”
ENCANA CORPORATION (April 2017 Corporate Presentation): “Achieved liquids price
upgrade while minimizing midstream capex via Alliance pipeline.” Also: “Diversified pricing
exposure for liquids and natural gas in Chicago market.”
NATIONAL BANK (March 27, 2017): “At present, based on competitive pricing to Dawn and
pursuant to Rich Gas Premium agreements with Aux Sable at the end of Alliance, access to the
Chicago market continues to be attractive.”
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PIR Top 15 North American Plays(1)
The Montney has shown strong growth even through low gas price
environments due to decreasing well costs and technological advances
Fundamentals – Montney Competitiveness Economics competitive to top North American plays
(1) PIR defined as the present value of future cash flow (after tax, 9% discount rate) divided by the initial investment. Analysis
assumes US$60 WTI and US$3.25 HHUB at US$0.75/C$. Source: Scotiabank GBM Playbook as at October 2016
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Fundamentals Montney economics continue to improve
Source: Encana as presented by TD Securities Inc, August 2016
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Fundamentals Production growth around Alliance
Alliance Pipeline Ltd.
Nova Gas Transmission Ltd.
High-Producing Wells
A large majority of high producing wells
brought on in 2016 are within a 50 km
band around Alliance
$0.0
$1.0
$2.0
$3.0
$4.0
$5.0
$6.0
$7.0
$8.0
$9.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
$U
S/D
th
Bcf/d
NE BC/NW AB Production
Production Chicago-AECO Basis AECOSource: NEB, AER
Production in NE BC/NW AB (near Alliance receipt locations) has continued to grow over the past 8 years despite
declining pricing due to improving well economics and declining costs
However, Chicago-AECO basis (the spread captured in transporting from WCSB to Chicago) has remained relatively
level with the exception of the 2014 polar vortex spike and strengthening seen through 2016
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Fundamentals US demand remains robust with export and industrial demand
Wood Mackenzie forecasts~16.5
Bcf/d of natural gas demand
growth in the Gulf of Mexico
region alone from 2015-2026
Alliance is well positioned to
provide low cost WCSB
production to US Midwest market
and onwards to other markets
including the Gulf Coast
Seven Generations has
contracted with Sabine Pass LNG
export facility to ship a minimum of
100 mmcf/d of gas transported on
Alliance and Natural Gas Pipeline
Company of America
Bcf/d
2 Bcf/d of US
Midwest demand
growth by 2025
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Alliance is Well Connected to New Production Significant new receipt capacity since 2010
Alliance Canada is
connected to 53 natural
gas meter stations and
4 liquids receipt points
Since 2010, ~ 1.7 Bcf/d
of new receipt capacity
installed, with an
additional 323 MMcf/d
planned for the second
half of 2017
All receipt connections
were producer funded
Including planned
connections, will have
over 6 Bcf/d of receipt
capacity
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Capacity on Alliance is Highly Valued
Some existing shippers have expressed interest in contract extensions
and/or obtaining incremental transportation capacity
– Due to Rights of First Refusals (“ROFRs”) on expiring firm capacity that
shippers must exercise by October 31, 2017, a contract extension strategy
will commence this fall
Prior to March 2017, new shippers had expressed interest in
contracting for firm service to Chicago
There are high levels of interest in contract extensions
and additional capacity on Alliance
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Contract Extensions and Capacity Expansion
Alliance issued a press release on March 13, 2017
– Non-binding expressions of interest for new capacity
– Contract extensions from existing shippers required to underpin an expansion
High demand for Alliance transportation due to forecasted high production growth in
Alliance catchment area, AECO pricing pressures and Alliance’s competitive tolls
The window for expressions of interest closed on April 7, 2017
– Process is ongoing but to date, more than 50 parties have signed
confidentiality agreements
Conducting a study to evaluate the commercial parameters of adding up to 500
mmcf/d in capacity through the addition of B Site compressor stations
If project economics are favourable, Alliance may conduct a binding open season
in late 2017
Financial structure to be addressed upon contractual commitments and
regulatory approvals
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Summary
Alliance continues to deliver strong and sustainable financial results
– Competitive cost structure and transportation tolls
– Strong interest in seasonal and short-term firm over IT
– Current market favorable to contract renewals/extensions
Favourable fundamentals are supportive of continued financial success
– Reliable access to US Midwest with connectivity to reach other US markets
including the Gulf Coast
Substantial interest from existing and prospective shippers for
additional transportation take away
– Substantial indications of interest towards capacity expansion
– Many original shippers that missed out on December 1, 2015 contracting are
back utilizing Alliance
– Indicative of a large number of replacement shippers if ever required
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Contacts
www.alliancepipeline.com
Keith Palmer Senior Vice President & CFO
Direct: (403) 517-6369
Email: [email protected]
Kevin Sundvall Treasurer
Direct: (403) 517-7711
Email: [email protected]
Terrance Kutryk President & CEO
Direct: (403) 517-6500
Email: [email protected]
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Fundamentals Immediate and economic bridge for LNG facilities
Alliance an existing, economic solution with immediate access
to market
Capital avoidance and predictable rich gas transportation through
2022 and beyond
First B.C. LNG projects still awaiting investment decisions
Optionality while LNG outcomes get sorted
Long-term market portfolio alternative for rich gas plays
Increasing exports from U.S. Gulf Coast
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Fundamentals Outlet until LNG Final Investment Decisions (“FID”) and in service dates
Incremental
Production
Time
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Fundamentals NGL transport up by 70% from 2010
Source: Company reports
0
10
20
30
40
50
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Bar
rels
in m
illio
ns
NGL Transported Per Year
Ethane Propane Butane Condensate
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Lender Protections Strong structural credit enhancements
Restrictive Covenant Package
– Restrictions on lines of business, disposals, and additional indebtedness
Liquidity and Structural Protections
– Debt Service Reserve Account for six months of scheduled principal and
interest payments
– Amortizing debt structure
Creditor Protections
– Intercreditor arrangement
– Security trustee and trust accounts (on all but equity accounts)
– Distribution restrictions
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