all work, no pay: the impact of forfeited time off
TRANSCRIPT
0
As prepared by:
Oxford Economics
September 2014
All Work and No Pay: The Impact of Forfeited Time Off
October 2014
• Americans are taking less vacation time than at any point in the last nearly four decades. In 2013,
employees entitled to paid time off (PTO) took and average of 16 days of vacation compared to an
average of 20 days as recently as 2000.
• Among employees with PTO, nearly five days went unused in 2013. Of those five days, 1.6 days
will be permanently lost, totaling 169 million days across the workforce.
• By choosing to work instead of taking PTO, employees are essentially working for their employers
for free. The 169 million days of forfeited PTO equates to $52.4 billion in lost benefits.
• Employees who forfeit PTO do not receive raises or bonuses at a faster rate than those who take
all of their vacation time. However, employees leaving days on the table report higher levels of
stress at work.
1
Key Findings
Oxford Economics’ analysis is based on the Monthly Current Population Survey results reported by the
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and a June 2014 survey of 1,303 American workers conducted
by GfK Public Affairs and Corporate Communications in conjunction with Oxford Economics. The BLS
data compiles long-term vacation activity, while the GfK results indicate average vacation days taken.
By combining the two data sources, Oxford Economics determined long-term, historical vacation
activity among American workers.
For a full methodology, refer to page 41.
2
Methodology
Long Term Trends in Vacation Usage
Long Term Trends Vacation Usage Show Steady Decline
Analysis of BLS data shows a steady decline in the number of vacation days taken by Americans
over the past two decades.
In 2013, employees with paid time off took 16.0 days of paid leave. As recently as the 2005 to
2010 period, Oxford Economics estimates employed adults took an average of 18.1 days of
vacation annually. Over the long-term period from 1976 to 2000, annual vacation time used
averaged 20.3 days.
If Americans returned to vacation patterns experienced on average from 1976 to 2000 (20.3 days
per year on average), annual vacation days taken by employed people would increase 27%,
which would be equivalent to 768 million additional days of vacation at a national level (4.3
additional vacation days, times 179 million employed people based on Bureau of Economic
Analysis).
4
Long Term Trends Vacation Usage Show Steady Decline
If Americans were to use those 768 million days, it would result in $284 billion of economic
impact, including $118 billion in direct travel spending.
Full-week vacations have steadily declined over the more than 35 years covered by the survey.
The impact of this decline was offset by increased incidence of partial-week vacations through
the mid-1990s. Since then, the frequency of partial-week vacations has eased, even as the
frequency of full-week vacations has continued to decline.
5
Annual Vacation Days
6
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011
Average Vacation Days Used, Among Employed Adults
Annual Vacation DaysLong Term Average
(1976 to 2000)
20.3 days
Estimated Annual
Vacation Days Used
(24-month moving
average)Recent Average
(2013)
16.0 days
Full-Week Vacation Activity has Steadily Declined
7
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011
Full-Week VacationsNot at work all week due to vacation, among employed adults
Percentage of Employed Adults on Vacation
Full-Week Vacations
(24-Month Moving
Average)Recent Average
(2013)
1.7%
Partial-Week Vacation has Leveled Off Since the Mid 1990s
8
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011
Partial-Week VacationsUsually work full time, but worked fewer than 35 hours due to vacation
Percentage of Employed Adults on Vacation
Partial-Week
Vacations by Full-
Time Workers
(24-Month Moving
Average)
Recent Average
(2013)
2.2%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011
Vacation Activity by TypeFull-Week and Partial-Week Vacations
Percentage of Employed Adults on Vacation
Partial-Week Vacations by
Full-Time Workers
(24 Month Moving Average,
Usually Work Full-Time but
Worked Fewer than 35
Hours Due to Vacation)
Recent average
(2013)
1.7%
Full-Week Vacation
(24 Month Moving
Average)
Recent average
(2013)
2.2%
Decline of Full-Week Vacations is No Longer being Offset
9
Analysis of Unused Vacation Time
• This analysis assesses the value of paid time off (PTO) forgone by US workers.
• For the purposes of this analysis, PTO includes vacation and personal days, but excludes sick days
and paid holidays.
• The study is based on a survey conducted by GfK and Oxford Economics on behalf of U.S. Travel.
11
Introduction to the Survey
20.9
16.0
4.9
0
5
10
15
20
25
EarnedPTO
TakenPTO
UnusedPTO
PTO Summary
Days PTO Utilization 77%
• On average, employees surveyed
earned just under 21 PTO days in 2013.
• Employees took an average of 16 PTO
days, and left 4.9 days on the table.
• On average, U.S. workers used 77% of
earned PTO.
12
Summary Metrics of PTO
18.5
23.2
18.2 17.9
11.5 10.7
0
5
10
15
20
25
1-10 11-15 16-20 21-25 26-30 31 ormore
Amount of PTO Earned% of respondents
Days of PTO
Average
20.9 days
13
• Nearly a quarter of employees earn
between 11 and 15 PTO days per year.
• Just under 60% of employees earn
between 11 and 25 PTO days per year.
Distribution of PTO
14
• Nearly 40% of workers take between 10
and 19 PTO days.
• Just under a quarter of employees take
less than 10 PTO days.
Distribution of PTO Taken
4.1
19.3
38.0
22.3
16.1
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
0 1-9 10-19 20-24 25+
Amount of PTO Taken% of respondents
Days of PTO
Average
16.0 days
• Not all unused PTO is actually lost.
• Most employees (56%) can either roll
over or bank PTO days for later use.
• But nearly a quarter (23.4%) lose it at
the end of the year.
15
Options for Unused PTO
4.0
8.8
16.4
23.4
47.4
0 10 20 30 40 50
Don't know
Bank it
Be paid for it
Use it or lose it
Roll it over
Options for Unused PTO
% of respondents
1.3
9.9
19.0
19.6
20.5
29.7
0 10 20 30 40
Don't know
16-20 days
11-15 days
6-10 days
21+ days
1-5 days
The Limit to Bank it or Roll it Over
% of respondents
• Of those that can roll it or bank, there
are caps and expiration periods.
• Nearly a third (29.7%) can only roll over
or bank five days or less.
16
Limits on Rolled Over PTO
3.7
5.0
5.2
5.4
6.5
0 5 10
<$29k
$30 to <$50k
$50 to <$75k
$75 to <$150k
>$150k
Unused Days of PTO in 2013Days by income group
Days of
PTO
Averag
e
4.9
Days
• Higher income earners tend to earn
more PTO, and also leave more PTO
days on the table.
• On average, the US worker did not take
4.9 days of earned PTO in 2013.
17
Unused PTO by Income
• After taking into account caps and
expiration of roll over and banked PTO,
a portion is actually lost.
• Higher income earners have more to
lose.
• On average, U.S. employees lost 1.6
PTO days in 2013.
18
PTO Lost After Constraints
1.3
1.4
1.9
1.7
3.8
2.4
3.6
3.4
3.7
2.8
0 2 4 6 8
<$29k
$30 to <$50k
$50 to <$75k
$75 to <$150k
>$150k
Lost PTO
Unused
Days of PTO Lost in 2013Days by income group
Days of PTO
Average
Days Lost:
1.6
• On average, U.S. employees lost more
than a third of their unused PTO.
• High income earners lost more than half
of unused PTO days.
19
Lost PTO
35.6
28.6
35.6
31.5
57.5
0 50 100
<$29k
$30 to <$50k
$50 to <$75k
$75 to <$150k
>$150k
Share by income group, %
Days of PTO
Average
Share Lost
34%
Share of Unused PTO Lost in
2013
• Based on total annual income and an
assumed 260 work days, the value of a
forgone PTO day was estimated by
income group.
20
Estimated Value of a Foregone PTO Day
$38.46
$105.77
$144.23
$211.54
$307.69
$432.69
$625.00
$0 $200 $400 $600 $800 $1,000
<$20
$25 to <$30
$35 to <$40
$50 to <$60
$75 to <$85
$100 to <$125
$150 to <$175
Estimated Value of a Forgone PTO
Income in Thousands
$ Per Day
• Lost PTO days multiplied by the value of
a forgone day yields an estimate of the
monetary value of lost days by income
group.
• On average, U.S. employees give up
$504 in paid time off – essentially giving
their employers that amount in free
work.
21
Value of Lost PTO Days
$108
$234
$470
$770
$3,427
0 2,000 4,000
<$29k
$30 to <$50k
$50 to <$75k
$75 to <$150k
>$150k
Value of Lost PTO Days$ by income group
Average
$504
$ Pay Cut
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.6
1.4
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5
<$29k
$30 to <$50k
$50 to <$75k
$75 to <$150k
>$150k
Percent Value of Lost PTOBy income group, %
Average
1.1%
• By forgoing these days, employees are
essentially working for free.
• High income earners give up the most,
1.4% of their pay, on average.
• Overall, U.S. workers give 1.1% of their
salary back to their employer each year,
in the form of free work.
22
Value of Lost PTO Days
16.7 13.4 17.5
23.2
10.8
21.1
83.3 86.6 82.5 76.8
89.2
78.9
0
20
40
60
80
100
0 1-5 6-10 11-15 16-20 21+
Yes
No
Recent Bonus by Unused PTO% of respondents
Bonus in
Last 3
Days of Unused
• There is no evidence that taking less
time off boosts the chance of getting a
raise or a bonus.
• Employees who used most earned PTO
were just as likely to get a raise or
promotion than those who left PTO
unused.
23
Pay Raise Based on PTO Used
• Employees that worked between 40 and
49 hours per week were slightly more
likely to have received a recent pay
raise.
• But this relationship was not apparent at
higher levels of hours worked per week.
24
Pay Raise Based on Hours Worked
12.0
71.0
12.0
5.0
13.0
67.0
14.0
6.0
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
35-39 40-49 50-59 >60
Yes No
Weekly Hours by Recent Raise% of respondents
Raise in the
last 3
years?
Weekly Hours
45
7
13
8
2119
18
20
21
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
0 1-5 6-10 11-15 16+
Very
Extremely
Stressed at Work% of respondents
Days of Unused PTO
• Stress at work was clearly associated
with leaving more unused PTO days.
• The more PTO days employees leave
behind, the more likely they are to report
being “very” or “extremely” stressed at
work.
25
Stress at Work
1
2
1
6
3.16
7
8 9
5
2.11
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0 1-5 6-10 11-15 16+
Very
Extremely
Stressed at Home% of respondents
Days of unused PTO
• While a relatively small share of workers
reported stress at home, the share tends
to increase the more days of PTO
workers leave on the table.
26
Stress at Home
• The amount of time off forfeited for the
entire economy is the average amount of
free labor hours times the total jobs in 2013.
• Average amount of free labor= $504
per job
• Estimated non-farm payroll jobs in
2013 that received PTO: 103.9 million
• Total economic impact= $52.4 billion, which
is greater than total wage and salary income
in several states.
27
Extrapolate to Total Economy
52.4
0 25 50 75 100 125
New Hampshire New Mexico
Nebraska Mississippi
Arkansas Nevada
Voluntary Pay Cut Utah
Kansas District of Columbia
Iowa Oklahoma Kentucky
South Carolina Oregon
Alabama Louisiana
Connecticut
Voluntary Pay Cut in ContextTotal wage and salary income by state, $ billions
Findings by Region
22.1
17.9
4.2
21.1
16.6
4.5
20.6
15.0
5.5
20.2
15.8
4.4
0
5
10
15
20
25
EarnedPTO
TakenPTO
UnusedPTO
Northeast (81.0%)
Midwest (78.6%)
South (73.1%)
West (78.0%)
PTO Summary by RegionDays, utilization in parentheses (days taken/days earned)
29
• Workers in the Northeast earn more and
take more PTO.
• The South region stands out as taking
less PTO than other regions and leaving
more PTO days on the table.
PTO Summary, by Region
30
• Workers in the Northeast earn an
average of 22.1 days of PTO per year.
• More workers in the South and West
regions earn less than 15 days of PTO.
Distribution of PTO Earned, By Region
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1-10 11-15 16-20 21-25 26-30 31 ormore
Northeast (22.1)
Midwest (21.1)
South (20.6)
West (20.2)
Amount of PTO Earned% of respondents by region, average PTO earned in days in parentheses
Days of PTO
31
• Few workers in the Northeast take less
than 10 days of PTO per year.
• Just under 30% of employees in the
South taken less than 10 days of PTO;
this is a higher share than any other
region.
Distribution of PTO Taken, By Region
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
0 1-9 10-19 20-24 25+
Northeast (17.9)
Midwest (16.6)
South (15.0)
West (15.8)
Amount of PTO Taken% of respondents by region, average PTO taken in days in parentheses
Days of PTO
• The West region of the US reported
leaving more PTO unused and also
more PTO actually lost.
• The Northeast region left fewer days of
PTO on the table and also lost fewer
days of PTO.
32
Unused and Lost PTO, By Region
1.3
2.0
1.7
2.2
2.8
2.4
2.9
3.4
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Northeast
Midwest
South
West
Lost
Unused
Unused and Lost PTO by Region
Days of PTO
33
• Of the unused PTO days, employees in
the West tend to actually lose a higher
share at 46% due to roll over caps and
expiration banked and rolled over PTO.
Lost PTO as a Share of Unused PTO, By Region
32.1
36.6
39.4
45.7
0 10 20 30 40 50
Northeast
Midwest
South
West
Share of Unused PTO Actually Lost
Share, %
• The value of employees’ forfeited time
off is highest in the South.
• This is due to the low utilization of PTO
days. Also, more unused PTO days are
forgone by those in the higher income
groups.
• For Southern employees, this is the
equivalent to 1.5% of their salary,
compared to 0.6% in the Northeast.
34
Findings by Region
0.6
0.7
1.2
1.5
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0
Northeast
West
Midwest
South
Percent Value of Lost PTO
Findings by Gender
• There were no major differences
reported by gender in terms of PTO
earned.
• Men tend to take less PTO and leave
slightly more on the table.
36
PTO Summary by Gender
20.7
15.8
4.9
21.2
16.4
4.8
0
5
10
15
20
25
EarnedPTO
TakenPTO
UnusedPTO
Male
Female
PTO Summary by Gender
Days PTO utilization
Male: 76.4%
Female: 77.2%
37
Distribution of Earned PTO, By Gender
17.5
23.0
19.9
17.5
11.6 10.4
19.8
23.4
15.8
18.5
11.3 11.2
0
5
10
15
20
25
1-10 11-15 16-20 21-25 26-30 31 ormore
Male Female
Amount of PTO Earned% of respondents by gender
Days of PTO
Male avg: 20.7 days
Female avg: 21.2 days
38
Distribution of PTO Taken, By Gender
5.5
19.1
38.0
21.1
16.3
2.2
19.5
38.1
24.0
15.9
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
0 1-9 10-19 20-24 25+
Male Female
Amount of PTO Taken% of respondents
Days of PTO
Male avg: 15.8 days
Female avg: 16.4
days
• According to survey results, female
workers tend to lose slightly more PTO
days compared with male their
counterparts.
• Women lost an average of 38% of
unused PTO, compared with 31% for
men.
39
Lost PTO, By Gender
1.5
1.8
3.4
3.0
0 1 2 3 4 5
Male
Female
Lost
Unused
Unused and Lost PTO by Gender
Days of PTO
• Both men and women gave their
employers just over $500 of free labor
per job.
• In percentage terms, women work for
free more than men, equivalent to 1.3%
of their salary vs. 0.8% for men.
40
Benefits Lost, by Gender
$503
0.8%
$505
1.3%
$ value % pay cut
Male
Female
Benefits Lost per Job, By GenderIn dollars and % cut per job
Per Job
Methodology
The analysis uses two sources of information. The first is the Current Population Survey (CPS),
which is a monthly survey of U.S. households that provides the national unemployment rate and
other labor force information reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
For the purpose of this analysis, Oxford Economics focused on two categories of employed
people as tracked by the CPS. Those who were not at work all week, due to vacation, which we
refer to as “full-week vacations.” Those who usually work full time, but worked fewer than 35
hours during the week, due to vacation, which we refer to as “partial-week vacations”
We have referred to these two categories combined as: “employed, on vacation during part or all
of the week”.
These categories are focused on vacation time (including personal days), and exclude other
reasons such as illness, bad weather, labor dispute, or economic reasons such as a furlough.
The CPS asks respondents about their activities during a specific reference week each month.
This is defined as the week (Sunday through Saturday) that includes the 12th of the month; it is
modified on occasion to avoid major holidays that could impede data collection.
42
Methodology
Our analysis of CPS data found that people that were employed, but on vacation during part or
all of the week, represented 4.0% of employed people on average during 2013.
To put this measure in context, if an individual took vacation two weeks a year (either the full-
week, or partial-week) it would represented 3.8% of the year (e.g. 2 weeks / 52 weeks).
The second source of information used in our analysis is the Vacation Time Opportunity Survey
conducted by GfK and Tourism Economics in 2014 that shows the average employee with paid
time off used 16 days of vacation time in 2013.
Starting with this survey-based average of 16 days of vacation during 2013, we estimated days
of vacation historically, and forward into 2014, based on the CPS survey results.
The process of scaling the CPS data based on the 2013 survey result included assumptions on
the number of vacation days being taken by the two categories of survey respondents (full-week
and partial-week).
43
Methodology
The CPS provides an indicator of vacation activity, but it has some limitations. For example:
During the CPS interview, households are asked about the time they spent at work during
specific mid-month reference weeks. These weeks are selected by the Bureau of Labor Statistics
to measure stable work weeks, minimizing the impact of major holidays. As such, the CPS data
is an indicator of how vacation activity has changed during mid-month periods over time, which
may differ from vacation activity during major holidays.
The CPS provides an indicator of vacation activity, but it has some limitations. For example:
• During the CPS interview, households are asked about the time they spent at work during specific mid-month
reference weeks. These weeks are selected by the Bureau of Labor Statistics to measure stable work weeks,
minimizing the impact of major holidays. As such, the CPS data is an indicator of how vacation activity has
changed during mid-month periods over time, which may differ from vacation activity during major holidays.
• Changes in the ways Americans use their vacation time during the year could impact the survey results
independently of the actual quantity of vacation time used. For example, taking multiple short vacations, such as
two days of one week and three days of another week rather than a full five-day week, could result in a greater
incidence of vacation activity being measured in the CPS approach, even though the quantity of days could be the
same. Similarly, a trend of taking shorter partial-week vacations such as two days off rather than three, would not
be evident in the CPS-based results as a reduction in vacation activity.
44
Methodology
• The CPS survey has been periodically redesigned, such as to improve the sample process or refine the interview
process. One such redesign was implemented in 1994. To support comparability across the full period of available
information back to June 1976, Tourism Economics has adjusted the data for the 1976 to 1993 period based on a
comparison of survey results directly before and directly after the redesigned survey was implemented.
• In addition to stable seasonal patterns that do not detract from the analysis, such as higher vacation activity in
summer months, there are also less stable patterns. For example, the impacts of certain religious holidays that
occur during the reference week on certain months, as well as major weather events. Lastly, though there are
60,000 households included in the sample, there are also typical survey-related sources of variability.
• The CPS survey has been periodically redesigned, such as to improve the sample process or refine the interview
process. One such redesign was implemented in 1994. To support comparability across the full period of available
information back to June 1976, Tourism Economics has adjusted the data for the 1976 to 1993 period based on a
comparison of survey results directly before and directly after the redesigned survey was implemented.
• The raw CPS data on vacation activity is volatile from month to month, requiring the use of longer-term averages,
such as the 24 month moving average, to smooth the results.
• In addition to stable seasonal patterns that do not detract from the analysis, such as higher vacation activity in
summer months, there are also less stable patterns. For example, the impacts of certain religious holidays that
occur during the reference week on certain months, as well as major weather events. Lastly, though there are
60,000 households included in the sample, there are also typical survey-related sources of variability.
45
Methodology
All Work and No Pay: The Impact of Forfeited Time Off
October 2014