alexander cohan photochemical modeler · alexander cohan photochemical modeler . acknowledgements...
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Interim LADCO Modeling of
EPA’s 2011ed platform
Alexander Cohan
Photochemical Modeler
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Acknowledgements
• EPA OAQPS
– Alison Eyth
– Kirk Baker
– Norm Possiel
– Chris Misenis
• IL EPA
– Scott Leopold
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Domain
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Technical Details
• Meteorology: – EPA 2011 version II
• Emissions: – EPA 2011 version I
– Supplemental Canada and Mexico emissions from 2008 NEI
• Model: – CAMx V6.00
• CB5 with CF aero
• YSU vertical diffusivity with minimum urban KV
• Modeling Period: – June 17 to September 26, 2011 with an additional 15
days of spinup
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O3 (PPM)
Episode: July 18 – July 23, 2011
36 KM Domain 12 KM Domain
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NOX (PPM)
Episode: July 18 – July 23, 2011
36 KM Domain 12 KM Domain
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Ozone Evaluation
with AQS data
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Bias & Error: 60 PPB O3 Threshold
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8HR O3 at 60 PPB Threshold
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12KM Domain 8HR O3 Statistics
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LADCO States 8HR O3 Statistics
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Atlanta, GA
Monitor ID 131210055
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Chicago, IL
Monitor ID 170310037
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St. Louis, MO
Monitor ID 291831002
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Harford, MD
Monitor ID 240251001
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NOX Evaluation
with AQS data
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Bias & Error: 60 PPB NOX Threshold
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1HR NOX at 60 PPB Threshold
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Chicago, IL
Monitor ID 170310063
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Summary
• Ozone error is generally within 35% • Ozone bias is generally within 15%
– Some under-prediction in the East and Midwestern
• NOX performance could be improved • LADCO is continuing to evaluate model
performance
** Modeling Platform in Development Stage ** ** PRELIMINARY RESULTS **
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Model Attainment Test Software
(MATS) Results
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2018 Emissions
• Tier III proposed rule
– MOVES-NPRM version (not MOVES 2014)
• CAIR
– IPM 2018
• State/Federal “on-the-books” controls
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2011 MATS O3 Design Values
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2018 MATS O3 Design Values
** PRELIMINARY RESULTS **
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2011 - 2018 MATS O3 Design Values
** PRELIMINARY RESULTS **
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Ozone Source Apportionment
(OSAT)
36KM CAMx modeling without minimum kv fix
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Source Apportionment Regions
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Atlanta, GA
Ozone apportionment with a 65 PPB threshold
** PRELIMINARY RESULTS **
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Sheboygan, WI
Ozone apportionment with a 65 PPB threshold
** PRELIMINARY RESULTS **
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St. Louis, MO
Ozone apportionment with a 65 PPB threshold
** PRELIMINARY RESULTS **
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Harford, MD
Ozone apportionment with a 65 PPB threshold
** PRELIMINARY RESULTS **
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Future Work
• CAMx V6.10 released 4/4/14 – Re-emissions model (not PiG compatible)
– CB6r2 Chemistry
– Improved PiG algorithm
• ERTAC EGU emissions – Compare IPM and ERTAC
– MATS (Mercury and Air Toxic Standards) sensitivity runs
• MEGAN biogenic emissions
• OSAT with more regions
• PM2.5 2011 and 2018 annual modeling – PSAT