alevel - as geography world at risk revision
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Revision for world at risk, unit 1 for AS geographyTRANSCRIPT
World at Risk
Global hazardsA hazard is an unexpected threat to humans and or their propertyA disaster is when a natural hazard has serious effects such as large loss of life or property
A disaster consists of 2 components
- Hazardous geophysical event e.g. flood/earthquake/tsunami- Vulnerable population: susceptible to humans and or economic loss because of where they
live
Natural Hazard: factors effecting strength or level of risk
- Past recurrence intervals- Future probability- Speed of onset (warning)- Magnitude- Duration- Areal extent – range of area effected
Vulnerable system: exposure, sensitivity, recurrence of:
- Population- Economy- Land use and development- Infrastructure and critical facilities- Cultural assets- Natural resources
- Tectonic – to do with processes acting to shape the earth’s crust- Climatic – to do with processes affecting and causing worlds weather- Geomorphological – to do with nature and history of land forms and the processes that
create them
Risk of disasterLocation – do they live on a fault line/near the coast/disaster hotspot: more likely risk of disasterGender – people are more likely to get hurt or injured if they are indoors. Women and children are more likely to be indoors in some parts of the worldQuality of buildings – better the quality of buildings, the more likely it will survive the hazardIncome – wealthier people usually have better houses and can afford to live away from high risk areasLEDC’s – Poor quality buildings, poor disaster management plans and poor prediction abilities
Disaster trends
- Impacts of natural hazards vary considerably around the world- Asia dominates as being the continent most affected by natural hazards- Vulnerability is a big part of the study of natural hazards
Disaster equation
- Used to measure hazard vulnerability- Hazard vulnerability = capacity of a person to cope with, resist and recover from the impact
of a natural hazard
Disaster risk (D) = Hazard (H) x Vulnerability (V) Capacity to cope (C)
Vulnerability based on 3 factors:
1. People HAVE to live in dangerous places – can’t afford other places2. Can’t afford to build well – even if building regulations are enforced3. Rapid urbanisation – forced the poor into high risk areas of cities
Case study: California and Iran Earthquake
- Central California and Bam (Iran) had earthquake with magnitude of 6.5 in 2003- Number of people killed varied between the two.- California no. killed 2- Bam no. killed 26000- Bam has poor quality housing so couldn’t stand the earthquake – 75% of houses damaged- Leaving 100,000 people homeless- California MEDC and can afford good buildings- No people left homeless- Iran women and children more likely to be indoors
Global warmingSome of the largest changes in climate are being seen in the Arctic even though very little of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions come from here.
- Some areas in arctic cooled whilst others warmed- Some will warm more than others- Past 50 years the biggest average temp increase has been in Siberia, Alaska and western
Canada – between 2-3 degrees- Largest temp change measured inland- North Atlantic cooled by 1 degrees- Satellite images from NASA show area of sea covered by summer polar ice cap has decrease
by 20% since 1979.- Arctic sea ice had thinned by almost half since 1950- Predict arctic sea ice will have disappeared completely by middle of 21st century- Sea ice has an albedo – it reflects back into space 90% of sunlight which strikes it- If the ice disappears it will expose the ocean below which absorbs 90% of sunlight so will
heat up more.- Sea ice is important in keeping arctic region cool and its loss would accelerate warming in
the area- Scandinavia and north west Russia could experience average changes of over 6 degrees,
Siberia as much as 7 degrees and eastern Canada and Greenland 3-5 degrees- Average winter temp in arctic could increase by 10 degrees by 2090- Impact land and marine species, biodiversity and the traditional way of life for humans in the
arctic.- Also positive impacts
Sea ice
- Rising temp lead to reduction of sea ice- Later freezing and earlier melting will lengthen period when areas have no sea ice- Loss of habitat for polar bears, cold water species of fish such as salmon- Can threaten their survival- However a decrease in sea ice and an increase in nutrient supply from melting ice will lead
to increased productivity at the base of the marine chain as more sunlight reaches phytoplankton, meaning more food for further up the food chain
- More fish will eat phytoplankton- More seals which eat fish- Potentially more food for polar bears who eat seals- Also more open water benefit some whale species
Siberia
- Increase in winter precipitation lead to more snow fall- In spring as temp rises, melting occurs, annual fresh water run-off into arctic projected to
rise by 14%- Greater run-off increases the amount of nutrients and sediment reaching ocean – positive
and negative effects- Coastal & wetland bog ecosystems expected to expand creating habitats- Bog ecosystems release methane- Methane is greenhouse gas with higher global warming potential than co2. - 1kg of methane creates same warming as around 21kg co2- Increase in volume of freshwater into ocean impact ocean currents- North Atlantic drift current brings warm surface waters towards the poles while cold water
sinks and moves back towards the equator. - This current keeps northwest Europe warm- Change could impact fish species and climate
Impacts on biodiversity
- Rise sea temp exceed thermal tolerance of the some species- Loss of biodiversity- Impact on seasonal migration by northward shift- In Alaska and western Canada biodiversity is high – 70% of rare plants species found here
occur nowhere else on earth
Impact on humans
- Little numbers live in arctic- If fish population move, fisheries infrastructure , fish vessels, ports have to relocate which is
expensive- People using snowmobiles cannot move until first snowfall
Case study: Tebua
Tebua was a small island in Kiribati which is an island nation located in the central tropical pacific ocean. According to the Pacific regional environment programme the uninhabited island of Tebua disappeared under water in 1999. This is thought to be due to rising sea levels due to climate change. The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicts that sea levels will rise by about half a metre (20 in) by 2100 due to global warming and a further rise would be inevitable. It is thus likely that within a century the nation's arable land will become subject to increased soil salination and will be largely submerged.
Farmers have to grow crops in tin cans because there is too much salt in the ground, the fish are dying because the sea is too warm, and drinking water is harder and harder to find. The small island of Tebua Tarawra has already disappeared, and the islanders of Kiribati and Tuvalu are afraid that more of their land will soon be under water.
Most scientists around the world agree that the Earth is getting warmer. They believe that some places are already 2° hotter than they were 50 years ago, and that temperatures will go up another 5 ° in the next hundred years. This means that the ice at the North and South Pole will melt, the oceans will expand and the sea will rise by as much as one metre.
Global Cooling
- The Thermohaline circulation system transports heat around the world through oceanic currents
- Some of these currents are surface, warm water currents e.g. the gulf stream – circled- Others are deep water cold currents e.g. the north Atlantic deep water- For this conveyor to work warm, salty water sinks south of Iceland powering the current - However if a large amount of cold, fresh water is deposited in this area the conveyor will
weaker or stop – glacial retreat
- This has occurred in the past – last time 14 000 years BP. These events are called Heinrich events
- These events in the past were caused by ice sheets melting over Canada and caused Europe to return to the ice age
- Today it is believed that if large areas of the Greenland ice sheet melt or the rainfall increases over Russia that this could happen again
Are hazards increasing?Frequency – how often a hazard or event occursMagnitude – The intensity or size of a hazard or event
Why are hazards increasing?
- Technology – number of seismographs in existence has increased from 320 to 8000 since 1930 but magnitude has remained constant
- Vulnerability – more people on world due to increasing population so more people effected- Climate change – increasing greenhouse gases- International monitoring agencies – CRED or SCSN- Media
I think the world is a more hazardous place as the graph showing natural disasters reported from 1900 to 2008 shows an increase of natural disasters. From 1900 to 1960 there has been a gradual increase of natural disasters whilst from 1970 to 2000 there has been a dramatic increase in natural disasters reported
Some people may disagree and say the world is not a more hazardous place as technology has improved over the years so hazards are easier to measure which could be the reason there are more natural hazards reported.
Humans exacerbating disasters
- Growing population – more people at risk (more economic activity)- People migrating to cities and coasts increasing vulnerability- Growth of shanty towns, more risk of homes falling down/destroyed in natural disasters
- Deforestation – people exposed to natural disasters by removal of trees. Makes land more unstable and more floods and trees don’t intercept the water (take it up)
- Honduras – half the forest land was cleared- Land rights unfair – forcing poor people to live on steep hillside areas and unprotected river
banks - Honduras – 90% of prime farmland is owned by 10% of the population- Honduras – 80% of rural population live on fragile hill lands- Investing $1 in preventing disasters (mitigation) can save $7 in disaster recovery cost- Mitigation measure more effective when integrated with sustainable development- Natural vegetation – ecosystems protect against coastal stumps. - People build more on flood plains stopping it from periodically flooding which is needed for
fish as they use the flood plain as a spawning ground- Soils benefit from flooding- Removing coastal wetlands eliminates shock absorber for hazards- Human activity causes drought – deforestation, overgrazing, using all water up from wells
and river for irrigation – AFRICA- Droughts are not well reported like storms but kill thousands- Droughts and famine accounted for 42% of disaster related deaths between 1991 and 2000.- Building on dangerous places- Building dams/levees can cause drought/increasing floods- CHINA – flooding in 1998 caused more than 4000 deaths, effected 223,000,000 people- Inundated 61,000,000 acres of crop land and cost well over 36 billion.- Led to logging and agriculture – 85% loss of forest left places bare- Trees didn’t intercept water- Heavy rains- Flood plain built on- Reduced capacity of Yangtze water shed to absorb rain. Greatly increased speed and severity
of remaining run off- US Pacific northwest – 94% of landslides due to clear cuts and logging roads- Indonesia – 1997-1998 burnt forest size of south Korea to grow palm oil- Effecting 70mill people from smoke and haze- Economic damage to area – 9.3bill- Schools/airports shut down- Crops burnt by fires- Dams/reservoirs dramatically increase flooding by increased rate of flow- Bangladesh – summer 1998, 2/3 country inundated for a month- 1300 people dead, 31mill left homeless- 10mill miles of road damaged- Heavy rain fall and heavily logged areas- Ran off from extensive development upstream
El Nino- El Nino conditions tend to be the ‘opposite’ of normal in the Pacific. - El Niño appears, usually every 3–7 years.- An El Niño is a temporary change in the climate of the Pacific Ocean, in the region around
the equator.- You can see its effects in both the ocean and atmosphere, generally in Northern Hemisphere
winter. - Typically, the ocean surface warms up by a few degrees Celsius. At the same time, the place
where hefty thunderstorms occur on the equator moves eastward. Although those might seem like small differences, it nevertheless can have big effects on the world's climate.
Why does it occur?
- El Niño events are associated with an increased probability of drier conditions.- El Niño occurs due to interactions between the surface layers of the tropical pacific ocean
and the atmosphere that lies above it- The strengths of the prevailing winds over the equatorial Pacific, commonly known as the
South East Trades depends upon the difference in surface atmospheric pressure between:- The subtropical high pressure region in the eastern Pacific -where cool, dry air converges
and subsides; and- The low-pressure region over Indonesia-where warm air rises producing cumulonimbus
clouds and heavy rain-fall.
Effects of El Nino
- As well as drier conditions in SE Asia and Australasia and wetter conditions on the west coast of South America, El Nino has other, global effects:
- It causes severe droughts in the Sahel, southern Africa and the Indian subcontinent.- It causes extremely cold winters in central North America.- It causes stormy conditions with floods in California.- It causes exceptionally wet, mild, windy winters in the UK and NW Europe.- It is believed to suppress the hurricane season in the Caribbean.
Case study: Peru
- As well as drier conditions in SE Asia and Australasia and wetter conditions on the west coast of South America, El Nino has other, global effects:
- It causes severe droughts in the Sahel, southern Africa and the Indian subcontinent.- It causes extremely cold winters in central North America.- It causes stormy conditions with floods in California.- It causes exceptionally wet, mild, windy winters in the UK and NW Europe.- It is believed to suppress the hurricane season in the Caribbean.
La Nina- Cooling of surface water in the west of the Pacific Ocean and conditions are above the
normal level and is the opposite of El Nino.- In El Nino the sea water would move to the right but, with La Nina the waters move to the
left towards Indonesia, Australia and New Zealand.- The Pacific Ocean temperature drops by 3-5oC below the normal temperature and the
central, eastern part of the Pacific cools down.- Happens by the convection currents moving in the opposite direction- warmer water being pushed to the west more clouds are formed over Australia, Indonesia
and New Zealand as the low pressure causes the air to rise and condense, increasing the rainfall over these regions.
Why does it occur?
- La Niña impacts on the world's weather are less predictable than the effects that occur from El Niño.
- The La Niña storm track is weaker and loopy and irregular, like a piece of wet and wiggly spaghetti
- More changeable — so the behaviour and direction of the storms it carries are more difficult to accurately forecast
- The causes of this kind of severe natural phenomenon are hidden in the major fluctuations of temperature in the surface of waters of the Equatorial Pacific Ocean.
- La Nina occurs when the difference between atmospheric pressures in South America and Indonesia increases to a certain level.
- La Niña usually occurs just after an El Nino has occurred- Due to the change of the air pressures, trade winds are produced. - These strong trade winds (blow the hot water from the surface of the oceans to the
Southeast Asia. - Then the inner cold water that is there in the depth of the ocean comes upward. - The temperature of this water surface is much cooler than the normal temperature of the
ocean.
Effects
- Weather Cycles - La Niña are responsible for weather extremes in various parts of the world that are typically opposite to those associated with El Niño.
- La Niña features unusually cold weather in the Northwest and (to a lesser extent) northern California, the northern Intermountain West, and the north-central states.
- Farther south, higher than normal temperatures are slightly favoured in a broad area covering the southern Rockies and Great Plains, the Ohio Valley, the Southeast, and the Mid-Atlantic States.
- La Niña's cooler temperatures also affect Canada from British Columbia's west coast, through the Prairie Provinces and into Ontario.
- Southern BC receives more snow than average; much of southern Canada will receive higher precipitation of all types.
- Fishing is also affected: Sockeye salmon will travel through the Strait of Juan de Fuca thanks to the preferred lower temperatures. This allows American fishing vessels to share the catch. Drought in East Africa Also Due to La Niña.
- Globally, La Niña is characterized by wetter than normal conditions west of the equatorial central Pacific
Case Study: California
Each year 50mm of movement occurs at the boundary of the 2 plates.
The state is located on the boundary of two of the Earth’s largest tectonic plates – the North American and pacific plate.
Many cities in California densely populated including LA & San Francisco
Major earthquakes occur once every 10 years
The San Andreas Fault is a major fracture of the Earth’s crust. The fault traverses the length of the whole state.
3 or 4 earthquakes a year cause moderate damage.
Hundreds of fault lines run through California
Population of 33.8mill
Brush wood becomes highly flammable every autumn when hot and dry.
Local wind – Santa Ana spreads bush fires
Intense winter rain storms can cause flash floods in LA
Due to earthquake risk, the state is also at risk from tsunamis.
Water shortage is common in large areas of California.
Case Study: Philippines
California experiences between 100 and 150 earthquakes large enough to be felt by humans each year.
In the last 25 years, more than 100 Californians have lost their lives to landslides which are triggered by intense rainfall.
California exposed to risk of volcanoes
Estimated that in past 1000 years there have been 12 volcanic eruptions in the area
The likelihood of a volcanic eruption occurring in any given year is less than 1%.
California, hill region covered in sandy soil.
Subsidence: when ground slips due to drilling down for oil along the coast. Ground sinks into the sea causing rising sea level
Philippines are regularly exposed to tropical cyclones in average 19-21 times each year.
Flooding is a problem related to cyclones
Region is exposed to the El Niño oscillation – brings drought to the area.
Heavy rainstorms increase the risk of landslides in mountainous areas.
La Nina brings flooding to area.
Greenhouse effect The greenhouse effect and the enhanced greenhouse effect are below.
The Philippines experience considerable seismic events
In 1991, Mt Pinatubo’s eruption caused large pyroclastic flows and widespread lahars and caused 1000s of people to evacuate.
In 2006, one landslide killed 1150 people
Cyclone activity exposes islands to strong winds and rain
Philippines sits across a major plate boundary
Faces the pacific ocean which is the most prone to tsunamis in the world
91 million people call the Philippines home.
The Philippines has a number of large volcanoes
GDP in 2006 was US $5000 Per capita
In 2006 a local earthquake triggered a 3m high tsunami.
The Philippines have experience a number of very intense earthquakes in recent years
Humans have caused deforestation of many mountain forests
In 2003, 200 people were killed in landslides.
Time:
- Geological time is split into smaller periods- The quaternary is the name given to the past 2.6million years- It is then split into Pleistocene and Holocene – the Holocene is past 10,000 years- Geographical time is measured as BP (Before present) - This is the number of years before 1953
Glacial – period of widespread glaciation (cold period)Interglacial – warmer period with reduced or no ice cover
Measuring evidence of climate change
Ice cores – long term
- Found in Greenland and Antarctic- Can go back as far as 890,000 years BP- Frozen record of past climate ice contains air bubbles of carbon dioxide and oxygen isotopes
Positives:
- The sequences of sea level change links very closely with oxygen and carbon dioxide- Can trace changes in temperature and atmospheric gases over a very long stretch of time
Negatives:
- Very expensive to extract and analyse- Only found in cold places
Pollen analysis – long term
- Pollen is produced by all plants and was extracted from sediment cores in peat bogs and lake beds
- Pollen grains are preserved in water logged sediments- By analysing pollen we can see how ecosystems have changed in response to climate change
Positives:
- Cheaper than ice cores- Available more widely- Anywhere in world
Negatives
- Accurate pollen reconstructions rely on good preservation of pollen- Long pollen sequences are rare - Vegetation change may lag behind climate change- Relies on habitat of modern pollen sets – plants may have evolved over time
Dendrochronology – medium term
- Trees are sensitive to changes in temperature, sunlight and precipitation- In warm years trees have wide rings- In cold years trees have thin rings- Record go back 10,000 years
Positives:
- A good source of temperature data- Better in places with old trees
Negative:
- Tree records only give localized records- Deforestation means tree data has been lost
Paintings and written accounts – medium term
Positives:
- Paintings are dated- Can give idea of changes –often used to consider what the little ice age was like
Negative
- Unreliable – these sources did not set out to record climate change and must be used with care
- They are usually local- Difficult to generalized- Anyone could have painted or written them
Glacier retreat – medium term
- Glaciers change in response to climate- Look at old photos/maps/paintings to measure direct differences in glacial position
Positives:
- Reliable – good records stretch back to around 1880, before this the record is patchy
Negatives
- Glaciers may be reacting to internal mechanisms completely unrelated to climate change.
Temperature records – Short term
- Measured since late 1800s
Positives:
- Accurate measure of temperature
Negatives:
- Many measuring devices have been moved over their life span, often from towns to rural areas causing an artificial temperature change.
Reasons for distributions of:
Earthquakes:
- Found along pate boundaries and fault lines e.g. San Andreas Fault- When 2 plates are moving either towards each other or along aside each other the plates
cause friction which builds up pressure and then slips to release energy causing an earthquake.
- Earthquakes not tend to found along constructive margins – shown by lack of earthquakes in Iceland which sits on the North Atlantic ridge.
Tropical storms:
- Form between tropics e.g. North Atlantic, Indian ocean and West Pacific- This is because when warm damp air rises, it condenses forming clouds which go on to form
the hurricane.- Depending on direction of prevailing winds, these storms then travel towards the coast
Avalanches:
- Found in cold mountainous regions where it snows- Snow falls due to cold air rising over mountains, condensing and hen forming precipitation- The snow builds up and when it becomes unstable an avalanche occurs
Volcanoes:
- Found along plate boundaries e.g. Japan, Philippines, Italy- Along destructive boundaries composite volcanoes are found- This is because oceanic plate is forced under the continental plate causing oceanic plate to
melt- This causes an increase in pressure which will eventually explode to the surface as a volcano.- Along constructive plate boundaries (North Atlantic Ridge) the plates are moving apart.- As this happens, magma rises to the surface, but not under pressure causing a shield volcano
Droughts
- Localised to areas where there is little rainfall- This is due to anticyclonic conditions, where air is falling causing high pressure- The air is dry because it is falling so it is unable to collect any moisture- Anticyclones are stable weather conditions which means they stay in a place for
considerable periods of time.
Natural VS. Anthropogenic Causes
1. Natural: Variations in the Earths Orbit
Milankovitch cycles
- A Serbian physicist working at the beginning of the 20th century.- He identified 3 variations in the Earth’s orbit around the Sun
- Earth’s Orbit: Every 100 000 years the Earth’s orbit changes from spherical to elliptical, changing solar input
- Tilt of the earth: The Earth’s axis is tilted at 23.5o, this changes over a 41 000 year cycle between 22o & 24.5o, affecting solar input, especially in higher latitudes.
- Wobbly axis: The Earth’s axis wobbles, so which way the hemispheres are facing to the sun when closest to the sun varies over 21 000 years. Affecting solar input.
- Many scientists argue that the Milankovitch cycle may have been just enough to trigger a major global climate change, but that climate feedback mechanisms are needed to sustain it
- -Feedback effects are those that can amplify a change and make it bigger (positive) or smaller (negative).
- An e.g. of positive feedback is snow and ice cover. Small increase in snow and ice raises surface albedo reflecting more solar energy back into space. Resulting in further cooling
- An e.g. of negative feedback is cloud cover. As CC occurs, more evaporation occurs increasing cloud cover, which in turn may reflect more solar rays back into space diminishing effects of the warming.
2. Natural: Variations in solar Input - The sun’s output is not constant it also varies. - A variety of cycles have been detected, most are
short term, the most obvious is due to sun Spot activity – 11yrs
- The effect of sunspots is to blast more solar radiation towards the earth
- Some scientists have suggested that around 20% of 20th Century warming may be because of solar output variation.
3. Natural: Volcanoes - Major eruptions eject material into stratosphere.
- The sulphur dioxide forms a haze of sulphate aerosols- This reduces the amount of sunlight received at Earth’s surface- The eruption of Tambora led to the year without a summer in 1816 as global temperatures
dipped by 0.4-0.7 degrees C
Anthropogenic:
1. Carbon dioxide 2. Methane 3. Nitrous oxide
CLIMATE CHANGE IN AFRICA 2 PAGE SPREAD
Strategies to reduce climate change:
Adaptation:
- Adaptation suggests that nations will need to make changes in order to protect their populations, infrastructure and ultimately their standard of living.
- Already occurring at many levels- They don’t solve the problem! They do nothing to prevent the problem.- Adaptation manages the impacts
Effects Pros ConsMigrationHard engineeringBarriers to sea levels rise to prevent floodingStoring food for extreme weather
Save money by letting people save fossil fuelsPeople live as they do normallyLive with consequences of climate change
Doesn’t help to solve the problemNot sustainableHarming future generations.
Mitigation:
- Mitigation is the reduction of greenhouse gases emitted into the atmosphere- While the climate system would still be changing for a number of decades into the future (a
legacy of past emissions), the risk of compounding these changes would be significantly reduced.
- A complete cut in emissions is unlikely – but there are ways of limiting emissions
Effects Pros ConsRenewable energySolar panelsGrow trees – forestation/reforestation
Reducing problem – solving itSustainableSave money on having to adapt
Could be expensiveCould take longer to effect/make a changeEveryone needs to take part
‘ACT LOCAL THINK GLOBAL’
Local scale: Birmingham
- Aims to reduce carbon emissions by 20% by 2010 and 60% by 2050- Ensure regulatory building standards are met by 2015- Ensure all home have an energy rating by 2015- Reduce co2 emissions from domestic housing- New developments to have at least 10% energy sourced from onside renewable sources- Wind turbines- Solar water heaters- Eco homes
- Integrated waste segregation facilities- Domestic and small businesses have renewable energy grants scheme- Targets ensure that 15% of all energy use in Birmingham is from renewable sources- 30% domestic water recycled by 2010- An increase in co2 road transport should be kept to less than the increase in road traffic
National Scale: UK
- Cutting emissions- Emissions have already fallen 21% below 1990 levels – nearly double what was promised at
Kyoto- In the UK alone, low carbon and environmental goods and services are already worth more
than $100billion each year and the sector employs 80,000 people- Government has put in place the world’s first ever legally binding target to cut emissions at
least 80% by 2050 and a set of 5-year carbon budgets to keep the UK on track.- By 2020 emissions will be 18% below 2008 levels- Emissions falling faster than before – fallen 1% a year since 1990 and will now fall 1.4% a
year.- All UK government departments been allocated their own carbon budget - Produce around 30% of our electricity from renewable by 2020 by substantially increasing
the requirements for electricity suppliers to sell renewable electricity- Facilitate building of new nuclear power stations- Making homes greener by channelling 3.2billion to help households become more energy
efficient- Rolling out smart meters in every home by 2020- Introducing clean energy cash back schemes so people and businesses will be paid if they
use low carbon sources to generate heat/electricity
International Scale: THE WORLD
Kyoto Protocol
What is it?
- The Kyoto Protocol is an international agreement linked to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
- Commits its Parties by setting internationally binding emission reduction targets.
Recognizing that developed countries are principally responsible for the current high levels of GHG emissions in the atmosphere as a result of more than 150 years of industrial activity, the Protocol places a heavier burden on developed nations under the principle of "common but differentiated responsibilities."
Why was it created?
The Kyoto Protocol was adopted in Kyoto, Japan, on 11 December 1997 and entered into force on 16
February 2005. The reason for the lengthy time span between the terms of agreement being settled
upon and the protocol being engaged was due to terms of Kyoto requiring at least 55 parties to
ratify the agreement and for the total of those parties emissions to be at least 55% of global
production of greenhouse gases.
- Every year we are releasing almost 7 billion tonnes of carbon into the atmosphere -
carbon that had lain buried since the days of the dinosaurs.
- Remain in the atmosphere for around a century, raising the level of carbon dioxide in
the atmosphere and trapping more of the sun's heat.
- Before the industrial age, the CO2 level was steady at around 280 parts per million.
- When the Kyoto protocol was drawn up in 1997, the CO2 level had reached at 368 ppm.
- In 2004, it hit 379 ppm.
Figures released by the UN last month suggest the world is on track to meet its Kyoto targets
for greenhouse gases. Countries in Kyoto Protocol have committed to cut emissions of not only
carbon dioxide, but of also other greenhouse gases, being:
Methane (CH4)
Nitrous oxide (N2O)
Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs)
Perfluorocarbons (PFCs)
Sulphur hexafluoride (SF6)
Countries involved
- India and China, which have ratified the Kyoto protocol, are not obligated to reduce
greenhouse gas production at the moment as they are developing countries.
Impacts:
- Among industrialised nations, 16 are on target to meet their Kyoto obligations, including France, the UK, Greece and Hungary, the UN said. Some
- 20 countries are off-course, including Canada, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Japan, New Zealand
and Spain. Nations that miss their Kyoto target in 2012 will incur a penalty of an additional
third added to whatever cut they agree under a new treaty in Copenhagen.
- Has Kyoto worked? "In terms of emission reductions achieved, the answer would be no," De
Boer said. "A 5% cut is a pretty small step on what will be a long and arduous journey.
International scale: Copenhagen Accord
When:
- 2009, and aims to reduce carbon emissions by 2015 and 2020
Who:
- Reached between the US, China, India, Brazil and South Africa, contains no reference to a legally binding agreement, as some developing countries and climate activists wanted.
What: The Accord:
- Developed countries must make commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and developing countries must report their plans to curb greenhouse gas emissions to the UN by 31 January 2010
- Endorses the continuation of the Kyoto Protocol.- Underlines that climate change is one of the greatest challenges of our time and emphasises
a "strong political will to urgently combat climate change in accordance with the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities"
- To prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system, recognizes "the scientific view that the increase in global temperature should be below 2 degrees Celsius", in a context of sustainable development, to combat climate change.
- Recognizes "the critical impacts of climate change and the potential impacts of response measures on countries particularly vulnerable to its adverse effects" and stresses "the need to establish a comprehensive adaptation programme including international support"
- Recognizes that "deep cuts in global emissions are required according to science" (IPCC AR4) and agrees cooperation in peaking (stopping from rising) global and national greenhouse gas emissions "as soon as possible" and that "a low-emission development strategy is indispensable to sustainable development"
- The deal does not spell out penalties for any country that fails to meet its promise.
- Recognizes "the crucial role of reducing emission from deforestation and forest degradation and the need to enhance removals of greenhouse gas emission by forests", and the need to establish a mechanism (including REDD-plus) to enable the mobilization of financial resources from developed countries to help achieve this.
- Establishes a Copenhagen Green Climate Fund, as an operating entity of the financial mechanism, "to support projects, programme, policies and other activities in developing countries related to mitigation
How:
- Reducing carbon emissions - Countries representing over 80% of global emissions have engaged with the Copenhagen Accord.
- A selection of reduction targets is shown below. All are for the year 2020.
Compared to 1990: EU: 20% - 30% Japan: 25% Russia: 15% - 25% Ukraine: 20%
Responses by countries:
- The G77 said that the Accord will only secure the economic security of a few nations- Australia was happy overall but "wanted more".- India was "pleased" - The United States said that the agreement would need to be built on in the future and that
"We've come a long way but we have much further to go."- United Kingdom said "We have made a start" but that the agreement needed to become
legally binding quickly. - People's Republic of China's delegation said that "The meeting has had a positive result,
everyone should be happy.” - Brazil's climate change ambassador called the agreement "disappointing".- Bolivian president, Evo Morales said that, "The meeting has failed. It's unfortunate for the
planet. The fault is with the lack of political will by a small group of countries led by the US.
Criticism:
- The BBC immediately reported that the status and legal implications of the Copenhagen Accord were unclear.
- The accord itself is not legally binding- No decision was taken on whether to agree a legally binding successor or complement to the
Kyoto Protocol.- The accord sets no real targets to achieve in emissions reductions.- The accord was drafted by only five countries- The deadline for assessment of the accord was drafted as 6 years, by 2015.- The mobilisation of 100 billion dollars per year to developing countries will not be fully in
place until 2020- There is no guarantee or information on where the climate funds will come from.- There is no agreement on how much individual countries would contribute to or benefit
from any funds.- COP delegates only "took note" of the Accord rather than adopting it.
- The head of the G77 has said it will only secure the economic security of a few nations.- It shows biases in silent ways such as the promotion of incentives on low gas-emitting
countries.
Success:
- Tony Tujan of the IBON Foundation suggests the failure of Copenhagen may prove useful, if it allows us to unravel some of the underlying misconceptions and work towards a new, more holistic view of things
- The Copenhagen Accord, for the first time, unites the US, China and other major developing countries in an effort to curb global greenhouse gas emissions.
- The accord also says developed countries will aim to mobilise $100bn per year by 2020, to address the needs of developing countries.
- In some parts of the world this is already having impacts - and a Copenhagen deal could not stop those impacts, although it could provide funding to help deal with some of the consequences.
Key players in the Copenhagen agreement:
Key player: someone who has power and influence over a situation
The key players include US, China, India, Brazil and South Africa. These are the countries that drafted the accord and include some of the countries with most the carbon emissions such as US and China.
Strategies to combat global warming
Plant a tree:
- Trees serve as excellent carbon sinks by removing co2 from the atmosphere
- Unfortunately anthropogenic causes have removed many of world’s forests.
- Technological changes means forests are cut down faster
- Deforestation no only diminishes the capabilities of this global carbon sink by the
destruction of each individual tree also releases co2 that it stores back into the atmosphere
- Planting more trees excellent example of costs and benefits associated with trying to reduce
the impact of global warming
- Other land uses must make way for the return of forested areas.
- Cost of this will be felt in terms of losses in production, jobs and national incomes
- Few politicians or governments in the world who could advocate such change and expect to
be re-elected
Innovative strategies:
- End our dependence on fossil fuels
- Short term aim to use fossil fuels more efficiently
- Some fossil fuels are clean and should be used more often
- Transport converted to operate on natural gas which are better for environment
Alternatives to coal and oil
- Range of alternatives e.g. biomass fuel which originates from biological sources
- Biomass fuels must be burned in order to release energy but they are a cleaner source of
energy
- Less greenhouse gas emissions per unit of energy is produced.
- Examples include: fuel wood, ethanol and biodiesel, alcohol fermented from sugar, oil from
soybeans
- Since plants are a major carbon sink, its vital than any use of plants as biomass fuel is
accompanies by large scale replanting
Carbon capture:
- Greenhouse gases can be caught before they are released into the atmosphere
- Carbon capture then stored safely in a designated carbon sink where it is sealed off and
unable to enter the atmosphere
Reducing our carbon footprint
- In homes much can be done to reduce the carbon footprint
- Governments have developed rating systems to help households choose energy efficient
appliances e.g. fridges, and washing machines
- Simple behavioural changes – turn switch off electrical appliances
Alternatives to fossil fuels:
- Nuclear power 0 accounts for 7% of worlds energy supplies
- Not a renewable form of energy production but it produces no greenhouse gases
- Dangerous – highly radioactive waste
- Also nuclear materials could be used for weapons of mass destruction
- Site for terrorist activity
Sustainable form of energy production:
- Solar, water and wind power generation techniques
- Climate friendly technologies
- Capacity to generate millions of joules of energy each year
- Renewable source of energy
- Together solar and wind power account for only 2% of the world’s electricity production
- But have serious flaws preventing them from becoming primary source of energy production
- Solar power difficult to generate in areas that have less sunshine hours/experience long
winters
- Wind power is dependent on prevailing conditions within the environment
- Hydroelectric power is criticized due to environmental impacts associated with building
dams
- Cost of switching over to sustainable forms is a major factor preventing widespread use
- Need a system that will benefit environment AND national economies
- Governments not inclined to move towards technologies that reduce national income
- Less developed nations have less flexibility to achieve this
- Biggest barriers are high cost compared to existing fossil fuels
Role of market forces
- Price of climate friendly technology will fall once demand increases
- For this to occur, marketplace needs assistance from governments
- Market forces will contribute to the uptake of clean technologies within a nation
- A carbon market exists within the international community as well
- Carbon market refers to the idea that emissions of co2 can be regulated globally and that
emissions trading can take place between nations
- Transition to clean sources create range of jobs in diverse areas of new industries
- By 2050, products that relate to low carbon energy market expected to have a global value
of $500billion
Impacts of climate change in:
London
Scientists so far expected sea levels to rise by 9cms -88cms this century depending on how much
greenhouse gases we emit and how the earth responds.
The behaviour of large ice sheets is difficult to predict.
Social / Environmental impacts:
- Rise of a metre or more would be very bad news for major coastal cities causing people to
migrate
- Increased risk of devastating storm surges causing damage to homes/buildings
- Rising sea levels on the Thames Estuary where 1.25million people currently live and 1.5mill
people commute
- Even a small increase lead to flooding
- Insurance cover may be withdrawn
Economic Impacts:
- Weighed up the impact on rising sea level on the Thames estuary where assets are worth
£100 billion
- New developments planned for London are in or bordering the tidal flood risk zone
- As insurance cover may be withdrawn, it could lead to the collapse of the property market
- Businesses and finance area in Canary Wharf would be very vulnerable to increasing flood
risk
Solutions:
- There is a current effort to upgrade London’s defences by 2030 in the Environment agencies
Thames project 2100.
- Aims to project the capital for the rest of this century
- New study raises the risk and reinforced the need to upgrade defences in the Thames.
Maldives
- Vast use of the island has led to an environmental catastrophe
- Sea level rise by 0.9cm a year
- 80% of islands in Maldives are no more than a metre over sea level, within 100 years
Maldives would become inhabitable.
- Country’s 360,000 citizens forced to migrate
- 60% of population volunteered to evacuate in next 15 years
- First country to sign up to the Kyoto protocol
- The capital city is surrounded by a 3m high wall which took 14 years to construct at a cost of
63million dollars
- Maldives economy is weak and cannot pay this amount which was accepted aid from japan
- Japan paid 99% of cost
- No sustainable as not long term
- Wall only covers and protects 200 inhabited islands against tidal surges
- Tidal surges flood homes every fortnight
- Government encourages forestation to prevent beach erosion
- Coral reef natural barrier against tidal surges
New York
- In 2007, IPCC said by 2100 sea levels would rise by 1ft and new York would be effected
- If Greenland ice sheets melt, new York won’t have a large rise in sea level
- If Antarctica’s ice sheet was to melt new York would have a large rise in sea level
- This is because the Greenland and Antarctica ice sheets pull sea water towards the two
countries.
- When sheets melt, water is pushed away from countries so sea level drops
- New York will be 20% more affected by sea level ruse than elsewhere.
Bangladesh
If climate changes push sea levels high, people in coastal low lying areas such as Bangladesh could be
forced from their homes.
In the last century world heated up by 0.6 degrees, Sea level rose from 9 to 20 cm and is predicted to
increase to 88cm by 2100
- Bangladesh is situated in the low lying Ganges river delta and is one of the most densely
populated countries on the earth
- Char Bangla is one of thousand islands located around the river delta
- People living here are most vulnerable
- Rivers are expected to flood, destroying surrounding areas
- Villagers have built up platforms of mud for their huts to try and keep them out of the water.