ALARO-0 experience in Slovenia

Neva Pristov

ARSO

si04da:• 4 runs per day

00,06,12,18 UTC +54• 4.4 km, linear grid, 180s• 43 vertical levels• 3h coupling with ARPEGE• data assimilation

si09, si09ec:• 4 runs per day +72(60)• 9.5 km, linear grid, 400s• 43 vertical levels• initial and LBC ARPEGE, IFS

The operational ALADIN

4.4 km data assimilation

B-matrix (downscaled ARPEGE) CANARI surface analysis 3D-Var upper air assimilation, Surface blending step which merges CANARI surface

analysis over land, ARPEGE sea surface analysis and 3D-Var analysis

6-h forecast as first guess (long cut-off ARPEGE LBC),

Digital filter initialization Cycling of hydrometeors, 3MT variables

OPLACE observation + local SYNOP data

Assimilation suite performance

TemperatureWind speed

RMSE differences between data assimilation and dynamical adaptation

Jan –Apr 2012 12 run

upper air scores mostly neutral, positive in the first few hours of forecast

Assimilation suite performance

RMSEBIAS

black - data assimilation red - dynamical adaptation

2m Temperature, Jan –Apr 2012 12 run

Improved by data assimilation

Products for forecasters

output - 1 hour zoom - domain around Slovenia precipitation, simulated radar reflectivity time and vertical cross sections

1h precipitation

simulated radar reflectivity

Cold front

Cold front

Few remarks

Wind wind gusts hard to tune for all situations

2m temperature weakness, daily cycle

Low cloudiness Precipitation, Convection

improving advection of convection with general flow?

Wind gusts

Tuning of FACRAF

Red -observations

Wind from LAEF

2m temperature

2m temperature

Low cloudiness, 2m temperature

November 2011

Low cloudiness, 2m temperature

November 2011 2m temperature Ljubljana

Low cloudiness, 2m temperature

November 2011 2m temperature Novo Mesto

Low cloudiness, 2m temperature

November 2011 2m temperature at 12 UTC Ljubljana

red – ECMFF blue – si04da difference to 10 deg.

Low cloudiness

levels 43 4.4 km levels 70

Low cloudiness

levels 43 4.4 km levels 70

Extreme precipitation

ALADIN 2007 9.5 km

September 2007

24h precipitation

Extreme precipitation

ALADIN 2009 9.5 km

Extreme precipitation

ALADIN 2010 4.4 km

Extreme precipitation

ALADIN 2011 4.4 km DA

Applications using ALADIN data

INCA analysis and nowcasting system

BOBER hydrological forecast for Sava, Soča and Mura river catchment

NAPOM – 3D sigma-coordinate ocean model set up in Northern Adriatic

CAMx photochemical dispersion model