aladin a transition year ewglam/srnwp, dubrovnik, 8/10/07
TRANSCRIPT
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ALADIN
A transition year
EWGLAM/SRNWP, Dubrovnik, 8/10/07
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ALADIN 2006=>2007• Preparation of the ALADIN strategic 10 year plan
– Collective effort from:• An ad-hoc ‘taskforce’• Policy Advisory Committee• PM and an editing mini-group
– Final version hopefully available in November (quite needed to go to a multi/year planning structure (some lack of continuity in current long-term oriented efforts)
• AROME preparing for 2008 operational implementation in Toulouse.
• ALARO also (with some partial steps at ~10km [i.e. without 3MT yet], Cz, At …).
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• Operational implementation schedule
• Examples: the good and the bad
• Outlook
News about AROME (as of Oct 07)
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Operational implementation plan at MF
2007 2008 2009
dyn. adaptationtest runs
3DVar assimilationtest runs
preoperationaltest suite
operational productionArome v1
oper. prod.Arome v2
forecasters feedback & getting used to model behaviour
R&D Doppler radar assimilation R&D reflectivity, convection & clouds assimilation
nowcasting & relocatable versions
optimisation on MF's NEC
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The Arome-France model config
Arome-France current domain
Aladin-France domain
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Some other AROMEs...Alps (MAP D-PHASE experiment)
ongoing test runs by HIRLAM partners (FMI, DMI, SMHI)
and some more (Hungary...)
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Here on a Paris thunderstorm case, missed by the lower resolution ALADIN assimilation, and by AROME in dynamical adaptation mode.
The improvement comes from low-level SYNOP T,HU,wind obs
Short-range forecast improvementthanks to local data assimilation
obs dyn. adaptation fc from assimilation
3-h rain
forecast
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A typical nice forecast of low clouds
model
cloudy
areas
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A tendency to overpredict density currents
near thunderstorms: under investigation
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The 10km mesh base-line is stabilised and is already operationally or (pre-operationally) implemented, with good objective scores, especially for precipitations.
The work on the 5km mesh convective package (integrated, prognostic and multi-scale-oriented => 3MT) is ongoing, hard (upper-air scores just at break-even) but promising.
A word about ALARO
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3MT
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3MT: precip. outcome (provisional)
Without 3MT With 3MT
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Outlook (until next EWGLAM)
For AROME: scientific work priorities: turbulence (i.e. numerical diffusion vs subgrid turbulence), physics/dynamics interaction in convective clouds, initialisation of precipitating clouds;increase vertical resolution.
For ALARO:Concretise the first good results with the full configuration;Go back to check the scale independency again;Create the conditions for a good oper support.