al-qaida chief ayman al-zawahiri the coordinator 2015 part 19-138-caliphate- the state of...

C de Waart; CdW Intelligence to Rent [email protected] In Confidence

Al-Qaida chief Ayman al-Zawahiri The Coordinator 2015 Part 19-138-Caliphate- The State of al-Qaeda-31- Political guerrilla war-2

Cees: Thinking outside the Box.

A report recently issued by the Wilson Center suggests that the Islamic State (ISIS or IS) is fundamentally incapable of sustaining its early successes. On the other hand, al-Qaeda, which many believe has been eclipsed by IS, may still be the greater long-term terrorist threat to US and Western interests. Cees as I indicated previously Al Zawahiri’s trump card and game plan are slowly coming out of his sleeve; Get IS – and others - in the AQ orbit, move his Caliph into the forefront and declare the offensive jihad against dar al Harb. Some time ago I argued:

Will IS being the one or is it by 2016 al Qaida whom could raise again out of the military defeat of the IS? Will AQSL bring IS back into their Orbit? So far IS efforts and doings – although not full to the liking - are still permissible to the long term AQ plan. A defeated IS doesn’t mean a defeated al Qaida, to the contrary.

They say those who forget history are doomed to repeat it again, al-Qaeda had spent nearly 20 years building up contacts and cells in Sudan, other parts of Africa, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Yemen and Saudi Arabia and beyond.

And while it seems that Al Qaida is silenced it most likely lays in waiting licking their wounds as we are told to believe, but don’t be fooled they are most likely in the pre execution phase of the Deep Battle and setting conditions – pre phase, probing, manipulating “lone wolfs attacks, executing small scale low level terror attacks at the tactical level but study our actions and reactions at the strategic - for the executing of the next phase to come. And ask yourselves the question where did all the armament go – why is it not used yet - from all these bases overrun be it Libya, Iraq, Syria, Yemen or Afghanistan, there is enough heavy material missing to equip many brigades with heavy material, a need for the total confrontation. Again keep an eye on AQ while we are dealing with the IS, they could make a strategic shift and we while occupied could not notice.

In general we should not underestimate the forward thinking and planning of the AQSL and its strategists. Deception and planning for the next step has proven to be in the soul of AQSL. It is not unthinkable that they have sought and found an eager personality: Baghdadi, to pull the “Caliphate” car in an effort to see how the Islamic”- and the rest of the World would react. More over Afri could give them the window they are looking for. AQ has most likely foreseen the reactions of the regional and western states to the “self “declared Islamic State. They have also likely calculated the upcoming defeat of the Baghdadi caliphate, and if this is to happen they will have positioned themselves – or their candidate - to take over and pull forward with the remnants of it. With the current global focus on IS, AQSL can work under the radar with its planners and analysts and see where to adjust their long-term plan: 2020 plan.

Zawahiri could let Daesh run their course – and defeat will come - as long as it take and while Daesh will become more and more under pressure AQ could use it’s old tactics of getting as much as left over from Daesh back into its orbit. In the press some suggests merging, I say take over, but not as it seems Daesh – AQ but do not be surprised as in the near future AQSL is back in the game.

4- Zawahiri as no other understand the “force” and ideology connected with a Caliph, due to the current events and not being in the Western focus they have all the time to plane and wait for the things to come.

The farther back you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see.–Winston Churchill

CdW Intelligence to Rent of 21 01/05/2023

mailto:[email protected]


The key question here could be: do we see the prelude of an AQSL strategic shift into the next strategic phase, to include the attempt to get Daesh back in their orbit?

The world was surprised and astonished to see the map presented by the Daesh for their expansion and timeline to it: by 2020. What is surprising, the World should have known as it was released by AQSL, to become known to us in 2005. The role of AQ as the Vanguard has changed by establishing the Islamic State, and although we are to believe that AQ is decimated and overtaken by Baghdadi’s State, the momentum and lack of focus on them gives AQSL perfect room the plan and maneuver. Ready too act when needed, the window of opportunity is here and now.

If AQ decides to launch their next phase into the west, foreseen culminate 2016-2018, it is likely they could absorb the “Near” Daesh activity into their orbit and become a powerfully and dangerous enemy with growing capabilities and

motivated, trained, battle hardened fighters. The killing – by a member state of the US led coalition against them -of Daesh caliph Ibrahim, so far targeted more than once, could be AQ blessing and the turning point in favour of the AQSL. They have the long-term plan and vision and don’t like the current Daesh and its leader. As most of us didn’t notice or ignored Zawahiri who’s main focus is the Far around 2006 shifted – temporarily – the strategic focus from the Far to the Near in a likely move to facilitate phase 3,and 4 to set conditions for Five.

Thanks Cees

Usama Hamza Australi, “I’m currently in Syria as a member of Al Qaeda Central (AQC), working on their behalf with [Al Nusrah Front].” Al Qaeda is using the Islamic State to reposition itself as a supposedly more “moderate” jihadist organization.

These include the displacement of of Al Ghouta’s residents in order to create a





“rejectionist [Shiite] region” that would “change” the “identity” of Damascus. The goal is to “isolate it from the Muslim ummah that is waging jihad.”

It is “obligatory upon us to fight jihad and to establish an Islamic Caliphate, this being our ultimate goal,” he says. Al Qaeda will not “compromise” when it comes to the Quran and “will not stop until our goal is reached.” That goal is the “full” implementation of sharia law.

"I call on all mujahedeen (Islamist fighters) in districts of Iraq and Syria to collaborate and help each other," said Zawahiri, who opposes last year's declaration by the Islamic State group (IS) of a "caliphate" straddling the two Arab states. To counter the campaign, Zawahiri called for Muslims "to take the war into the West's cities and against their installations, especially in the United States".

Baghdadi exhorts angsty young men to “erupt volcanoes of jihad everywhere.” Zawahiri offers lessons on political theory.

Whatever drove Kinney to Syria and into the arms of al-Nusra, he's now emerged as the first white convert to join the ranks of the group and he appears to be trying to convince other potential recruits that, compared with ISIS, al-Qaeda is relatively moderate.

C: But first, this is follow-on of my part 1 on AQ Political guerrilla war, with the focus on: if we read between the lines;

Islamic State? Al-Qaeda! by Derek DavisonA report recently issued by the Wilson Center suggests that the Islamic State (ISIS or IS) is fundamentally incapable of sustaining its early successes. On the other hand, al-Qaeda, which many believe has been eclipsed by IS, may still be the greater long-term terrorist threat to US and Western interests. The report, titled The Islamic State as Icarus: A Critical Assessment of an Untenable Threat and written by National Defense University scholar Thomas F. Lynch III, was released on October 5.Lynch’s argument is rooted in an analysis of the many challenges IS faces. Although its high-profile split with al-Qaeda, its self-designation as a “caliphate,” and its rapid and dramatic successes in Iraq and Syria in 2014 brought IS a considerable amount of attention around the world, 2015 has not been as generous to the organization. In fact, despite isolated successes in Iraq (capturing the city of Ramadi) and Syria (capturing the Tadmur/Palmyra area), overall the group lost almost 10% of the territory previously under its control during the first half of this year.Seven Reasons for SkepticismLynch’s report identifies seven factors that have caused the group’s progress to slow and that should create skepticism about its ability to compete with al-Qaeda over the long term:“Major Pushback from Multiple Foreign Militaries”: IS’s sudden successes may

ultimately prove counterproductive, as the group is now opposed by no fewer than 64 separate nations involved in the U.S.-led anti-IS coalition, plus Iran and now Russia, and that doesn’t include irregular forces arrayed against it, like Kurdish militias in Syria and Shi?a militias in Iraq. As Lynch writes: “No major Salafi-Jihadist outfit—not AQ and not the Afghan Taliban after the 9/11 terror strikes in the United States—has previously inspired such a comprehensive set of encircling state adversaries in such a short time.”

“The Dubious Quality of, and Limited Responses from, Appeals to Potential Affiliates”: One of the areas in which IS has been trying to compete with al-Qaeda is in the recruitment of regional affiliates outside of its core Syria-Iraq zone, similar to the





Afghanistan-based al-Qaeda’s affiliate organizations in Syria (Jabhat al-Nusra) and Yemen (al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula). So far, however, IS’s successes in this effort, while impressive numerically, have been limited to isolated groups, like the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan in Central Asia, and to groups that have proven too parochial and/or too brutal even for al-Qaeda, like Nigeria’s infamous Boko Haram. Some of these affiliates have facilitated the flow of new fighters into Iraq and Syria, but there’s little evidence to show that IS has been able to expand its own power into the territories in which its affiliates operate.

“Self-Defeating Foreign Fighter Recruitment Efforts”: IS has been very successful in recruiting foreign fighters to come to Iraq and Syria to join its cause. According to some estimates, 20,000 or more foreign recruits have joined the group since 2013. However, Lynch suggests that this recruitment may begin to backfire on IS. For one thing, there is growing evidence that foreign IS recruits are becoming disillusioned with the organization, either because they’re unhappy with their living conditions or repulsed by IS’s indiscriminate violence directed at other Muslims. As the pool of defectors grows and their stories become public, potential new recruits may begin to think twice about joining IS. For another thing, those foreign fighters have evidently clashed with local Sunni tribes, which (if it becomes a pattern) could make it far more difficult for IS to hang on to the predominantly Sunni areas it now controls.

“Precarious Finances”: This may be the most counter-intuitive point on Lynch’s list, given that the Islamic State is thought to be extremely wealthy. However, IS acquired nearly half of its estimated $2 billion in assets in the capture of Mosul in June 2014 and its subsequent looting of the banks there. It sustains itself by relying on taxing the populations under its control, illicit fossil fuel sales, and kidnapping foreign nationals for ransom, but each of these is vulnerable to degradation. Coalition airstrikes have targeted IS’s energy production infrastructure, coalition member states have agreed to stop paying ransom for their kidnapped nationals, and the organization’s tax revenues are only as substantial as the territory it controls. IS has also been unable to tap into one of the most reliable jihadi funding streams, charitable contributions from wealthy Gulf patrons, due to the next item on Lynch’s list.

“[IS’s status as] a Jihadist Pariah”: The Islamic State’s break with al-Qaeda and its indiscriminate violence has cut it off from much of the rest of the Salafi-Jihadist community, including the wealthy Gulf patrons whose charitable contributions continue to fund al-Qaeda and related groups. Consequently, Gulf charitable funding is being directed toward groups that are explicitly fighting against IS in Syria.

“Risky Social Media Messaging”: IS has made copious use of social media to spread its propaganda, broadcast its successes, recruit new followers, and encourage sympathetic individuals to carry out terrorist attacks. Lynch argues that employing social media to such a degree comes at a cost: it allows intelligence and law enforcement agencies to gain insights into IS’s activities and organization, and it limits the organization’s appeal by widely broadcasting its brutality to the general public.

“An Ambitious and Unforgiving Territorial Timeline”: As Lynch writes, “by its own logic, the IS caliphate must grow robustly across the Middle East and the wider Islamic world to fulfill its promise. However, it has actually stopped growing in Iraq and Syria, and its claims of group affiliate attacks have yet to produce demonstrable territory gains elsewhere.” If IS can’t start gaining territory again,





Lynch writes, its current supporters may well turn against it.At an October 15 Wilson Center event to roll out his report, Lynch suggested that Islamic State leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi’s decision in summer 2014 to “form and frame an international Islamic caliphate within five years,” a break with al-Qaeda’s vision of a caliphate to be formed at some unspecified future time, may prove to be a mistake. Lynch said, “That is an enormous amount of pressure put on that organization to pull together and show territorial gains” as well create “quality” affiliates, in that five year period. This pressure, according to Lynch’s research, forces IS to claim responsibility for acts to which they are only tenuously connected at best. As more is learned about IS’s actual ability (or lack thereof) to project its authority outside of its Iraq/Syria birthplace, Lynch argues that the group’s “messaging of inexorable gain” will begin to come apart. Lynch later suggested that IS could begin to come apart in “as short a timeline as two and a half to three years” if “the very impatient people that actually populate ISIS” begin to see that the group is not making sustainable gains outside of its core territory.

Limited Appeal In his report, Lynch cites the case of South Asia, where al-Qaeda and IS have been directly competing for dominance in what he calls the “Salafi-Jihadist space.” Al-Qaeda’s decision last September to form its own South Asian affiliate, al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent, was intended to lock IS out of the Afghanistan-Pakistan-India -Bangladesh-Myanmar region, and for the most part it seems to have succeeded. IS has struggled to gain a foothold there, and its recruitment of fighters from that region has lagged considerably behind its recruitment of fighters from elsewhere, even Europe. The South Asian example may show the limits of IS’s appeal and suggests that al-Qaeda will continue to compete with the younger organization for affiliates and recruits moving forward.Analyst Daveed Gartenstein-Ross of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies told the Wilson Center audience that al-Qaeda remains a greater threat to Western interests than the Islamic State despite the fact that IS has the higher profile at the moment. He pointed out that IS’s brutality, so heavily emphasized in its own public propaganda, drastically limits its pool of potential recruits to people who agree that IS’s most extreme practices, like genocide and sexual slavery, are good things. That, Gartenstein-Ross noted, is “a high bar.” On the other hand, al-Qaeda has quietly been using IS’s extremism to recast itself in a more moderate and potentially more broadly appealing light in places like Syria and Yemen, which earns it more public support and potentially more backing from those wealthy Gulf financiers.Harleen Gambhir, a counterterrorism analyst at the Institute for the Study of War, cautioned that the Islamic State hasn’t stopped trying to expand beyond Iraq/Syria and has in particular established footholds in Libya, Egypt, and Afghanistan. It’s using these regional affiliates, which admittedly “are not necessarily the strongest or most powerful groups within each of these areas,” to “help set the conditions for expansion” by increasing “disorder…so that they can set conditions for ISIS’s eventual expansion.” The existence of these affiliates, however dubious their strength or reach, also allows IS to at least claim to be competing with al-Qaeda all around the world.It’s questionable the extent to which al-Qaeda still poses a major threat to the United States at this point. As Lynch said in his October 15 remarks, losses incurred in the decade between September 11 and the killing of Osama bin Laden by U.S. Special Forces in 2011 have left al-Qaeda “no longer the global catastrophic terror threat that it had been on the precipice of 9/11 or even the several years beyond that.” The group hasn’t successfully carried out a terrorist attack inside the United States since 2001 (though it presumably still wants to do so). In 2013, The Washington Post noted that terrorist attacks overall in the United States had been steadily declining for several decades. But given the alarm that the





Islamic State’s quick rise to power generated within the circles of power in Washington, something that actually helps IS by feeding into propaganda about its “inexorable gain,” Lynch’s report represents an important countervailing viewpoint.Image: from a video of the graduation from an Islamic State training camp

To the aforementioned just another angle to it, thinking outside general perception box… Cees -**

C Allow me to remember of my writing 7 Nov 2014: Al-Qaeda chief Ayman al-Zawahiri The Coordinator 2014 Part 19-64-Caliphate

By Capt (Ret) C de Waart, feel free to share: in Confidence. In The "War of the Cross1, we seek a Strategy, our Enemy has one."

Cees as indicated previously Al Zawahiri’s trump card and game plan are slowly coming out of his sleeve; Get IS – and others - in the AQ orbit, move his Caliph into the forefront and declare the offensive jihad against dar al Harb; American "defeat" in Afghanistan, global jihad necessary; Mahmood (spokesman for al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS) concludes his statement by portraying the jihadists as the victors in Afghanistan. He also praises Mullah Omar, the head of the Taliban, for his leadership. Mahmood says that the jihadists' victory "is a result of the blessed ongoing Jihad under the leadership of Amīr-ul-Mominīn Mullah Muhammad Umar Mujahid (C today: Akhtar Mohammad Mansour Shah Mohammed)." The AQIS spokesman gives "glad tidings of a humiliating defeat of America and its allies in Afghanistan and Khorasan after a period of thirteen years." "American Aggression on Iraq and Syria...O! Muslims Unite for the Guardianship of Al-Haram ," "The attack on Iraq and Syria is not against a particular group or organization," the AQIS message reads, "instead it's an attack on [the] entire Ummah [worlwide community of Muslims] aiming to terminate every Islamic and Jihadi movement which aims to stand against the tyranny and believes in the establishment of Shari'ah." Mahmood's statement is the latest indication that al Qaeda is attempting to use the US-led coalition's airstrikes in Iraq and Syria to bring an end to the jihadists' infighting. Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), a regional branch of al Qaeda that is led by Nasir al Wuhayshi, who is also al Qaeda's global general manager, has repeatedly called on the rival jihadists to unite against their common enemies in the West. Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), another branch of the global terrorist network, has joined AQAP in attempting to use the coalition's airstrikes as a basis for a jihadist truce. The title "Amīr-ul-Mominīn" means "Commander of the Faithful," a title that is usually reserved for the ruling caliph. Abu Bakr al Baghdadi has tried to usurp this title for himself. Shortly after Baghdadi proclaimed himself to be "Caliph Ibrahim," al Qaeda reaffirmed its allegiance to Mullah Omar and released an old video of Osama

1 Although IS sources admit that it is impossible for their military equipment to stand in the face of the West's airborne arsenal, they speak of a "strategy of resistance that the Crusaders have no capacity for.""The Hour (of Resurrection) will not come until the Byzantines land in al-Amaq (valleys in Antioch, southern Turkey) or in Dabiq." This is a Hadith (saying) of the Prophet Mohammad that jihadis are repeating frequently these days. Dabiq is a Syrian village located to the north of Aleppo where, they believe, a great battle is going to take place, which the Muslims will win in the end. According to their interpretation, the Byzantines represent the "Crusader West." IS supporters argue seriously that "the Crusader alliance will be lured into a ground battle because it will definitely not achieve its goals from the air." It is against this backdrop that the drums of the new world war are beating. "The alliance of the tyrants" - the name adopted by some IS activists on Twitter - has not undermined the resolve of the Islamic State's soldiers in the field. They believe that "standing up to an alliance of 40 states without resulting in their utter defeat, to the rest of the world, will mean that a divine power stands with them." Beirut Al-Akhbar Online 16 Sep




http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2014/07/osama_bin_laden_disc.php

http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2014/07/al_qaeda_renews_its.php

http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2014/09/al_qaeda_branches_ur.php

http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2014/11/aqap_continues_to_po.php

http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2014/11/aqap_continues_to_po.php

http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2014/10/al_qaeda_portrays_us.php

http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2013/08/aqap_emir_also_serve.php

http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2013/08/aqap_emir_also_serve.php


bin Laden swearing bayat (an oath of allegiance) to the Taliban master. Thus, al Qaeda implies that Mullah Omar ( today Akhtar Mohammad Mansour Shah Mohammed), not Baghdadi, is the rightful caliph. It is necessary "to pay full scale attention" to the front lines in "Syria and Iraq, Palestine and Afghanistan, Yemen and Somalia," Mahmood argues, but "targeting the interests of the enemy worldwide through the global movement of Jihad is the way of getting rid of this symbol of tyranny and violence." Cees it is highly likely Mahmood acts under direct guidance off al Zawahiri and showing the game plan unfolding; again they need a rightfully and respectful Caliph (Mullah Omar) who takes IS attempt forward in concistence with AQSL long term plan can declare offensive jihad: as Mahmood states; global jihad necessary.” (Be aware in AQSL 2020 plan to start soon)

Also my Jan 7, 2015: Al-Qaeda chief Ayman al-Zawahiri The Coordinator 2014 Part 19-71-Caliphate-The next phase-2

By Capt (Ret) C de Waart, feel free to share: in Confidence.

In The "War of the Cross2, we seek a Strategy, our Enemy has one." "This is a multiyear campaign. Phase one is Iraq. What we’re doing in Syria right now is degrading Islamists’

capacity". If the Arab world and the West fail to develop a comprehensive strategy to halt the Islamic state and to understand and address the force that’s feeding it: Salafist jihadist –Ideology, we will likely see the battle ground expanding into our own backyard. While we all are looking and fighting the current declared Islamic State we need to keep an eye on al Qaida’s seven phased plan, so far Five out of Seven came to completion. Our focus should look over the current horizon and identify indicators of whom is moving into the next; Total confrontation. Will IS being the one or is it by 2016 al Qaida whom could raise again out of the military defeat of the IS? Will AQSL bring IS back into their Orbit? So far IS efforts and doings – although not full to the liking - are still permissible to the long term AQ plan. A defeated IS doesn’t mean a defeated al Qaida, to the contrary.

Cees; They say those who forget history are doomed to repeat it again, al-Qaeda had spent nearly 20 years building up contacts and cells in Sudan, other parts of Africa, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Yemen and Saudi Arabia and beyond. As partially addressed in my part-1, here an update: If the Arab world and the West fail to develop a comprehensive strategy to halt the Islamic state and to understand and address the force that’s feeding it: Salafist jihadist –Ideology, we will likely see the battle ground expanding into our own backyard. We need to address the establishing of the global caliphate as announced first

2 Although IS sources admit that it is impossible for their military equipment to stand in the face of the West's airborne arsenal, they speak of a "strategy of resistance that the Crusaders have no capacity for.""The Hour (of Resurrection) will not come until the Byzantines land in al-Amaq (valleys in Antioch, southern Turkey) or in Dabiq." This is a Hadith (saying) of the Prophet Mohammad that jihadis are repeating frequently these days. Dabiq is a Syrian village located to the north of Aleppo where, they believe, a great battle is going to take place, which the Muslims will win in the end. According to their interpretation, the Byzantines represent the "Crusader West." IS supporters argue seriously that "the Crusader alliance will be lured into a ground battle because it will definitely not achieve its goals from the air." It is against this backdrop that the drums of the new world war are beating. "The alliance of the tyrants" - the name adopted by some IS activists on Twitter - has not undermined the resolve of the Islamic State's soldiers in the field. They believe that "standing up to an alliance of 40 states without resulting in their utter defeat, to the rest of the world, will mean that a divine power stands with them." Beirut Al-Akhbar Online 16 Sep




http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2014/07/osama_bin_laden_disc.php


by Al Qaida’s in it’s2020 plan3 - then brushed away as merely a pipedream, but also today by the late July declared Islamic State, seen in historical reference. Many things that are happening today be it AQSL or IS declaring to conquer the world or threatening neighboring Arab state can be understood if we take a peak look back in time. If we look we could find reasoning for the dispute and falling out between, or being silent for the moment be it: Al Zawahiri leader of Al Qaida and Muslin Vanguard or, Baghdadi the self declared Islamic State caliph or Mullah Omar the leader of the Taliban and first commander of the faithful: Caliph.. The first two have a vision and plan the re-take the lost Muslim land: dar-al Islam and from there conquer the western world of unbeliever: dar al-Harb. Mullah Omar is in accordance with Islamic jurisprudence the First caliph, and the second: Baghdadi should be killed in accordance to the hadith4. Additionally there is a stark contrast between al Zawahiri latest guidance for the jihad5 , the 4 Jan 2015, Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan Special Instructions of the Islamic Emirate’s leadership regarding precautionary means to prevent civilian casualties in the ongoing Jihad6 and the behavior of the IS forces who are killing Muslim apostates first and foremost7” In a speech by IS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, after he installed himself as caliph of the Muslims, he spoke about the terror inflicted on Palestine, but he did so only in passing, in the wider context of the terror Muslims face around the world. In form, most adherents of Salafi-Jihadism believe that “Shias are more dangerous than Jews.” Sources linked to IS told, “The final war that will liberate Palestine will be led by the caliphate, preceded by the establishment of this state in the Levant and Iraq,” on the basis of sayings they attribute to Prophet Mohammad. The sources add, “Allah alone knows just how much the soldiers of the caliphate yearn for skipping the necessary stages and battle the Jews in Palestine, but he who rushes something before its time comes shall be punished by being denied it.” The sources, who are based in the Raqqa province of Syria, enumerate these necessary stages, saying, “The priority is to liberate Baghdad, then head to Damascus and liberate all of the Levant, before liberating Palestine.” This is the principle that IS 3 The Fifth Phase This will be the point at which an Islamic state, or caliphate, can be declared. The plan is that by this time, between 2013 and 2016, Western influence in the Islamic world will be so reduced and Israel weakened so much, that resistance will not be feared. Al-Qaida hopes that by then the Islamic state will be able to bring about a new world order. The Sixth Phase Hussein believes that from 2016 onwards there will a period of “total confrontation.” As soon as the caliphate has been declared the “Islamic army” it will instigate the “fight between the believers and the non-believers” which has so often been predicted by Osama bin Laden.The Seventh Phase This final stage is described as “definitive victory.” Hussein writes that in the terrorists’ eyes, because the rest of the world will be so beaten down by the “one-and-a-half million Muslims,” the caliphate will undoubtedly succeed. This phase should be completed by 2020, although the war shouldn’t last longer than two years. The Word Unheard points us to an article in Spiegel Online by a Jordanian journalist Fouad Hussein, who is believed to be a reliable source of information on al-Qaida. His main source for this article on al-Qaida strategy is none other than Saif al-Adel, al-Qaida’s military commander who is currently operating from Iran. Al-Qaida’s purported strategy can be broken down into seven “phases” which span from 2000 until 2020, at which time they believe the global Islamist Caliphate will be established and they will achieve “definitive victory.”4 Narrated Abu Sa'eed al-Khudri; The Messenger of Allah said: "When oath of allegiance has been taken for two caliphs, kill the one for whom the oath was taken later." (Saheeh Muslim, When the oath of allegiance has been obtained for two caliphs, Book 20, Hadeeth #4568)5 https://azelin.files.wordpress.com/2013/09/dr-ayman-al-e1ba93awc481hirc4ab-22general-guidelines-for-the-work-of-a-jihc481dc4ab22-en.pdf6 You have also received the instructions of the esteemed Ameer ulMu’mineen through his messages regarding the importance of observing the rights and duties entailing our Jihad in all your plans and operations. He has specifically emphasized that all Mujahideen operations should be executed with utmost care to avoid any civilian casualties. Human life is priceless and a holy gift. You should thus exert all human efforts to avoid causing death of innocent lives and even those of animals thus becoming a cause of usurping this priceless gift7 http://www.meforum.org/3833/syria-islamist-crucifixion




http://shahamat-english.com/index.php/paighamoona/51926-special-instructions-of-the-islamic-emirate%E2%80%99s-leadership-regarding-precautionary-means-to-prevent-civilian-casualties-in-the-ongoing-jihad

http://shahamat-english.com/index.php/paighamoona/51926-special-instructions-of-the-islamic-emirate%E2%80%99s-leadership-regarding-precautionary-means-to-prevent-civilian-casualties-in-the-ongoing-jihad

http://billroggio.com/archives/2005/06/saif_aladel_zar.php

http://wordunheard.com/archives/2005/08/zarqawi_to_jour.php


soldiers follow: “Fighting nearby apostates is more important than fighting faraway infidels.” To justify this, they rely on the Wars of Apostasy8 initiated by the Caliph Abu Bakr (against Muslims who renounced their religion following the death of the Prophet), who made it a priority over fighting infidels and Muslim conquests. According to IS fighters, the adherents of all Islamic sects who do not submit to their “caliph” are either “apostates or misguided folk, who should be fought and killed, forced to repent and let themselves be guided, or be liberated from apostate rule.” A jihadi adds here, “We the followers of this path follow sharia not the whims of men,” adding that the Prophet had fought Quraysh first before moving on to fight the Jews of Banu Qurayza. These sharia-based arguments are “reinforced” by the reality on the ground. In substance, they believe that liberating Palestine is irrelevant without the establishment of the caliphate in the countries surrounding Palestine first. Before him, in the time of the late leader of al-Qaeda Osama bin Laden, the jihadi attitude on Palestine was also controversial. Why have the jihadis never declared Palestine an arena for their jihad? In effect, the leader of global jihadism Sheikh Ayman al-Zawahiri had an interesting position, approaching the issue from the angle of priorities on the basis of “Dar al-Kufr and Dar al-Islam9,,” or the abode of disbelief and the abode of belief in jihadi lore. Zawahiri argues that fighting in Palestine should be on the basis that it is an abode of Islam, and that therefore, liberating it is a duty for every Muslim, as stated in his speech “truths about the conflict between Islam and infidelity10” Realities of the Conflict Between Islam and Unbelief by Shaykh Ayman al-Zawahiri, As-Sahab Media, Dhu Qa'dah 1427 AH / December 2006 CE. An Army is needed for the next phaze: expansion first into dar al-Islam or as IS calls it dar al Kufar and then in dar al-Harb. The Islamic State has recruited an army hundreds of thousands strong, far larger than previous estimates by the CIA, according to a senior Kurdish leader. He said the ability of IS to attack on many widely separated fronts in Iraq and Syria at the same time shows that the number of militant fighters is at least 200,000, seven or eight times bigger than foreign in intelligence estimates of up to 31,500 men. Fuad Hussein, the chief of staff of the Kurdish President Massoud Barzani said in an exclusive interview with The Independent that "I am talking about hundreds of thousands of fighters because they are able to mobilise Arab young men in the territory they have taken." He estimates that Isis rules a third of Iraq and a third of Syria with a population of between 10 and 12 million living in an area of 250,000 square kilometres, the same size as Great Britain. This gives the jihadis a large pool of potential recruits. Proof that Isis has 8 http://www.islambasics.com/view.php?bkID=31&chapter=39 Today it is unfortunate that some of the Islamic concepts, definitions and terminologies which were well known by the Muslims in the past have become vague at the least and distorted or totally absent at the worst. One such issue is the subject of Dar al-Kufr (land of disbelief) and Dar al-Islam (land of Islam). Dar al-Kufr is the land which is governed by the laws of Kufr, and whose security is not maintained by the security (Aman) of Islam, i.e. by other than the authority and security of Muslims, even if the majority of its inhabitants are Muslims. According to Shariah terminology, Dar al-Islam is defined as the land which is governed by the laws of Islam and whose security (Aman) is maintained by the security of Islam, i.e. by the authority and protection of Muslims inside and outside the land, even if the majority of its inhabitants are non-Muslims. So what matters in determining whether the land is Dar al-Islam or Dar al-Kufr is neither the land itself nor its inhabitants, rather it is the laws and the security. So if its laws are Islamic and its security is maintained by Muslims then it is Dar al-Islam. When its laws are the laws of Kufr (disbelief) and its security is not maintained by Muslims then it is Dar al-Kufr. The term Dar al-Harb (land of war) is synonymous with Dar al-Kufr as in origin the aim of Islam is to spread to all lands until the Islamic state encompasses the whole globe. However there is a difference between those nations which are considered as Dar al-Harb Fi’lan (actual land of war) like the state of Israel which occupies Islamic land and Dar al-Harb Hukman (potential land of war) which include other states which are not occupying Islamic land or engaged with a direct war against our lands. These definitions have been derived from the Islamic evidences and discussed by the Ulema (scholars) in history.10 http://thesis.haverford.edu/dspace/bitstream/handle/10066/5018/ZAW20061229.pdf?sequence=3





created a large field army at great speed is that it has been launching attacks against the Kurds in northern Iraq and the Iraqi army close to Baghdad at the same time as it is fighting in Syria. Identifying the growing threat, early this year (2015) el-Sisi the Egyptian President stated: "I say and repeat, again, that we are in need of a religious revolution. You imams are responsible before Allah. The entire world is waiting on you. The entire world is waiting for your word ... because the Islamic world is being torn, it is being destroyed, it is being lost. And it is being lost by our own hands," el-Sisi said. "We need a revolution of the self, a revolution of consciousness and ethics to rebuild the Egyptian person -- a person that our country will need in the near future," the President said. He continued: the "corpus of [Islamic] texts and ideas that we have sacralized over the years" are "antagonizing the entire world"; that it is not "possible that 1.6 billion people [reference to the world's Muslims] should want to kill the rest of the world's inhabitants—that is 7 billion—so that they themselves may live"; and that Egypt (or the Islamic world in its entirety) "is being torn, it is being destroyed, it is being lost—and it is being lost by our own hands." Today the whole world press and statesmen are talking the threat of IS, we should not forget where the Vanguard worked on for at least the last 20 years and who’s plan it is: al Qaida. In a for many strange twist the current fight of the West and Middle Eastern countries with IS is still permissible to AQ long-term plan. So far Five phases are completed, although the current Caliph: Baghdadi is not to their liking it is declared, his policy of dar al-Kufr (apostates) first will serve AQ vision and strategy; with the focus and (military action) attention on IS, AQSL are likely not diverting away from the next phase planned: Total Confrontation set to start in 2016. The Sixth Phase (2016-2020) Hussein believes that from 2016 onwards there will a period of “total confrontation.” As soon as the caliphate has been declared the “Islamic army” it will instigate the “fight between the believers and the non-believers” which has so often been predicted by Osama bin Laden. And while it seems that Al Qaida is silenced it most likely lays in waiting licking their wounds as we are told to believe, but don’t be fooled they are most likely in the pre execution phase of the Deep Battle and setting conditions – pre phase, probing, manipulating “lone wolfs attacks, executing small scale low level terror attacks at the tactical level but study our actions and reactions at the strategic - for the executing of the next phase to come. And ask yourselves the question where did all the armament go – why is it not used yet - from all these bases overrun be it Libya, Iraq, Syria, Yemen or Afghanistan, there is enough heavy material missing to equip many brigades with heavy material, a need for the total confrontation. Again keep an eye on AQ while we are dealing with the IS, they could make a strategic shift and we while occupied could not notice. Thanks Cees

Early 2015, Al-Qaida chief Ayman al-Zawahiri The Coordinator 2015 Part 19-138-Caliphate- The State of al-Qaeda-5

Zawahiri’s Strategic Window of Opportunity.

The key question here could be: do we see the prelude of an AQSL strategic shift into the next strategic phase, to include the attempt to get Daesh back in their orbit?

C: I would argue that the current events: reportedly wounded Baghdadi who is replaced with, Abu Alaa Afri,(C: later ythis year killed) who leans toward reconciliation with rival extremist group al-Qaeda and its Syrian affiliate Jabhat al-Nusra and prefers that Daesh/ISIS’s leadership structure is composed half of Arabs and half of foreign members of the group, is permissible with Zawahiri’s intent. He, Afri will likely be the Caliph,





leader of Daesh if Baghdadi is incapable of conducting or dies, by US – airstrike- hands, as I predicted.” Moreover, it is believed that Afri, when senior al-Qaeda operatives Abu Omar al-Baghdadi and Abu Ayyub al-Masri were killed in 2010, was Osama bin Laden’s preferred choice to become emir of al-Qaeda in Iraq, the group which eventually morphed into ISIS. Zawahiri could get what he wants; an allays and former AQSL protégé as lead of Daesh, and from below the radar influence and give directions to it. This would make him again the hidden leader but this time from a giant Islamic Jihadist force. All is still permissive to his and AQ original plans. Contrary to speculations of him being nullified the silence for the last months, likely used to set favorable conditions to the what if Baghdadi falls away, could well pay-off. Moreover likely many had it all wrong, a nightmare jihadist coalition could be formed.

As I briefed the NATO community over the last months: 16th of Aries 1375 AH (solar) i.e. 4th April 1996 AD is a momentous day in the history of our Muslim people. Nearly two decades ago on this same faithful day, one thousand and five hundred scholars, dignitaries and Jihadi leaders of Afghanistan approved Mullah Mohammad Umar ‘Mujahid’ as the leader of the Islamic Emirate, gave an oath of allegiance to him and conferred the title of ‘Amir-ul-Momineen’ on him i.e. leader of the pious believers. --- Afghan Taliban publish Mullah Omar biography -- When oath of allegiance has been taken for two caliphs, kill the one for whom the oath was taken later. Hadith, Book 19, Number 4568: Narrated AbuSa'id al-Khudri: The Messenger of Allah said.

-- ...He who swears allegiance to a Caliph should give him the pledge of his hand and the sincerity of his heart (i.e. submit to him both outwardly as well as inwardly). He should obey him to the best of his capacity. If another man comes forward (as a claimant to Caliphate), disputing his authority, they (the Muslims) should behead the latter....[Sahih Muslim, Book 20, Hadith #4546]

Sep 2014, The other day, al-Qaeda’s leader Ayman al-Zawahiri announced the establishment of a new al-Qaeda affiliate, “al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent.” What struck me about the announcement was not so much the creation of a new al-Qaeda franchise in the subcontinent—al-Qaeda has long had ties to the region and the affiliate’s new leader Asim Umar is already a known al-Qaeda insider—but rather the way Zawahiri framed the group’s creation. In his introductory remarks, Zawahiri stressed that the new group was, like al-Qaeda, under the authority of the “Islamic Emirate” ruled by the “commander of the faithful” Mullah Omar, the head of the Taliban. He then proceeded to heap praise repeatedly on the “commander of the faithful.” Why would Zawahiri spend so much time hailing Mullah Omar as the commander of the faithful when introducing a new al-Qaeda franchise, something he has never done before? It must be al-Qaeda’s competition with the Islamic State, which declared the reestablishment of the caliphate in June. Since that time, al-Qaeda has been promoting Mullah Omar as the counter-caliph. As Cole Bunzel documented, al-Qaeda’s media wing released an old video of Bin Laden in July 2014 explaining his decision to give his oath of allegiance to Mullah Omar as commander of the faithful, a historical title of the caliphs. A questioner asks Bin Laden if his oath implies that he considers Mullah Omar to posses the “supreme imamate,” the prerogative of the caliphs, which Bin Laden affirms. Later that same month, al-Qaeda released a newsletter that begins with a renewal of the oath of allegiance to “Commander of the Faithful Mullah Muhammad Omar” and “affirms that al-Qaeda and its branches in all locales are soldiers in his army, acting under his victorious banner.”





Plainly, Zawahiri now holds up Mullah Omar as the counter-caliph to Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi to blunt the Islamic State’s chief recruiting pitch and criticism of al-Qaeda: it has brought back the caliphate and al-Qaeda hasn’t. But why the ambiguity?

Why not go all the way and declare Mullah Omar the caliph? I can think of two reasons: First, Mullah Omar may not want the job- for now, but . Claiming to rule Afghanistan is much more modest than claiming to rule the entire Muslim world, which would alienate potential allies like some of the Gulf states. Second, many jihadis have criticized Baghdadi and the Islamic State for declaring the caliphate too soon. Al-Qaeda would be subject to the same criticism if it aped the State (and Zawahiri would not even control the caliphate he declared). Better to walk the ambiguous middle way for the time being between forthrightly declaring a counter-caliph and having no caliph at all.It is believed that Afri, when senior al-Qaeda operatives Abu Omar al-Baghdadi and Abu Ayyub al-Masri were killed in 2010, was Osama bin Laden’s preferred choice to become emir of al-Qaeda in Iraq, the group which eventually morphed into ISIS.

To the aforementioned just another angle to it, thinking outside general perception box… Cees

Jan 2015 I wrote; Although we are told to believed that AQ and IS are at loggerheads the establishing of the Islamic State by Baghdadi fulfils Zawahiri’s dream of establishing it. Additional the Press stating the self declaring by al Nusra, could well be pre-planned as an alternative; to the Baghdadi Islamic State, it could be an Emirate, if so that has the approval of AQSL . It let us to believe that AQSL is now totally falling apart, one the other hand if we believe, than the only force left to fight will be IS, and Zawahiri would love that. Moreover he can plan unnoticed. He does not like Bagdhadi but the Caliph is there – a milestone - and likely to stay. A think out the box options and food for thought;

1- With the Caliph established the forward pulling role of the (AQ) Vanguard - in the Islamic State consolidation phase- AQSL 2020 plan Phase 5- is not needed, if you only look at the region’s established. The expanding of the Daesh region even by the force or a hidden role and – so far – unknown to us a new or according to pre-planned - (AQ) Vanguard mission, someone need too do the missionary work and prep the next battle field, Large parts of Europe, Afirca, Midlle East and Southern - Eastern Russia. Who has the best cards – global network in place - to do so.

2- The “planned Own state” by al Nusra could have a deeper reason than written in the text, Zawahiri a master in Deception - could furthers and play the plan on preparing the (AQ-) Counter Islamic State, as the Baghdadi State could see defeat in one way ore the other soon.

3- Zawahiri could let Daesh run their course – and defeat will come - as long as it take and while Daesh will become more and more under pressure AQ could use it’s old tactics of getting as much as left over from Daesh back into its orbit. In the press some suggests merging, I say take over, but not as it seems Daesh – AQ but do not be surprised as in the near future AQSL is back in the game.

4- Zawahiri as no other understand the “force” and ideology connected with a Caliph, due to the current events and not being in the Western focus they have all the time to plane and wait for the things to come.

5-With Afri leaning to AQ and having historical preference with their leadership, Zawahiri could get what he wants; a Daesh leadership listening to AQSL

The earley 2015 story of Al-Nusrah Front splitting from Al-Qa'ida was likely a rumor as long as it is not made official, and as long as the name of Al-Qa'ida remains on the flags





of Al-Nusrah Front in Syria. It could all be pre-planned, as planning and following timelines has proven to be an AQSL masterpiece.

In general we should not underestimate the forward thinking and planning of the AQSL and its strategists. Deception and planning for the next step has proven to be in the soul of AQSL. It is not unthinkable that they have sought and found an eager personality: Baghdadi, to pull the “Caliphate” car in an effort to see how the Islamic”- and the rest of the World would react. More over Afri could give them the window they are looking for. AQ has most likely foreseen the reactions of the regional and western states to the “self “declared Islamic State. They have also likely calculated the upcoming defeat of the Baghdadi caliphate, and if this is to happen they will have positioned themselves – or their candidate - to take over and pull forward with the remnants of it. With the current global focus on IS, AQSL can work under the radar with its planners and analysts and see where to adjust their long-term plan: 2020 plan. The world was surprised and astonished to see the map presented by the Daesh for their expansion and timeline to it: by 2020. What is surprising, the World should have known as it was released by AQSL, to become known to us in 2005. The role of AQ as the Vanguard has changed by establishing the Islamic State, and although we are to believe that AQ is decimated and overtaken by Baghdadi’s State, the momentum and lack of focus on them gives AQSL perfect room the plan and maneuver. Ready too act when needed, the window of opportunity is here and now.

Some time ago I wrote: C: ISIS has declared itself a “Caliphate,” which refers to an Islamic form of government led by an authoritative power considered a successor to the Muslim prophet Muhammad. Braniff says Daesh sees the growth of its Caliphate as “the means to the end of a final, decisive military confrontation with the West.” Zarate, author of “Treasury’s War: The Unleashing of a New Era of Financial Warfare,” says ISIS is “piggy-backing” off the work of al-Qaeda and beginning to advance the global agenda of Sharia rule.C: So far Five out of Seven Phases of Al Qaeda’s grand plan came to fruition, and should give us reason for concern 11. The question to ask here is the latest – Paris - a revenge attack for Blasphemy of the Prophet, although mentioned or an initial indicator of transit into their – al Qaeda - next phase of their Seven stage plan, or is the latest event in France an ordinary – but deadly battle for global jihad control, fought out on the soil of the House of War, Disbelieve – dar al-Harb? Daesh, the so-called Islamic State has according to Debkafile an expanding focus of the Near12 and their unbeliever” Muslims

11 Awakening” Sept 11 Provoke U.S. attack on Muslims, galvanize Jihadism “Opening the Eyes” 2002–2006 Force West on defensive. “Arising and Standing Up” 2007–2010 Assaults on Turkey and Israel. “Downfall of Apostate Muslim regimes” 2010–2013 Saudi Arabia, Jordan, oil -producing countries and 5; “Declaration of Caliphate” 2013–2016 Mobilization of Muslim forces..12 Waking Up to the New al-Qaeda, Ahmed Rashid The Yemen branch of al-Qaeda should be a particular concern to the West. AQAP is almost as old as the original al-Qaeda organization formed in Afghanistan and Pakistan by Osama bin Laden in the early 1980s. Moreover, in its fundamental aims, AQAP poses a more direct threat to Western targets than ISIS. From its initial rise to power in Iraq and Syria, ISIS has given top priority to the “near enemy,” what it views as the corrupt secular Arab regimes of the Middle East. AQAP has maintained the original al-Qaeda aim of attacking the “far enemy”—Western countries and Western capitalism—in order to bring about the collapse of Arab regimes. In other words, the Paris attacks could dramatically change the way Western governments operate, which is exactly what the old al-Qaeda tried to do when it attacked the twin towers in New York. AQAP will continue to make this its strategic aim—to bring Western capitalism to its knees. ISIS represents an extraordinary threat of its own, but the Paris attacks have demonstrated that the greatest danger to the West is still al-Qaeda. http://www.nybooks.com/blogs/nyrblog/2015/jan/12/paris-attacks-waking-al-qaeda/




http://www.nybooks.com/blogs/nyrblog/2015/jan/12/paris-attacks-waking-al-qaeda/

http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/161039464X/ref=as_li_tl?ie=UTF8&camp=1789&creative=390957&creativeASIN=161039464X&linkCode=as2&tag=blublo-20&linkId=2S6R27FGOBJYW57J


and apostate governments; it seems that the Egypt President is on the list to topple next. A threat also voiced by Muslim Brotherhood cleric Salama Abd Al-Qawi who said on Rabea TV; Anyone who kills Egyptian President Abd Al-Fattah Al-Sisi and the journalists who support him would be doing a good dead. Meanwhile, cleric Wagdi Ghoneim told Misr Alan TV that “whoever can bring us the head of one of these dogs and Hell-dwellers,” referring to Sisi and his supporters, would be rewarded by Allah. Interestingly it was Al Zawahiri: who said in the past; "the road to Jerusalem passes through Cairo. 13" -- Moreover on 30 Jan 2015 14, The Muslim Brotherhood called for “a long, uncompromising jihad 15” in Egypt just days after a delegation of the Islamist group’s key leaders and allies met with the State Department, according to an official statement released. “It is incumbent upon everyone to be aware that we are in the process of a new phase, where we summon what is latent in our strength, where we recall the meanings of jihad and prepare ourselves, our wives, our sons, our daughters, and whoever marched on our path to a long, uncompromising jihad, and during this stage we ask for martyrdom,” it states.

Also Israel is mentioned – By Daesh, and see footnote for Zawahiri thoughts - to be attacked be it from the north or the south or both. On the other hand both AQIM and AQAP and the late Sep established AQIS are signalling in their latest statements a move from the Near to the Far. It is unknown, though likely that AQSL has sanctioned the start into the next strategic Phase: the confrontation in the Far: dar al-Harb, the house of unbeliever. If as mentioned 5 out of 7 stages are in process or came to some form of completion the latest is not unlikely.

As western intelligence officials have warned for some time now, it is highly likely that the fight will come to Europe, sleeper cells – likely over years trained and positioned - are activated, trained and indoctrinated fighters are returning, with the blasphemy of the prophet opposition in the western and global Muslim communities and their leading clerics growing the conditions are increasing in favour of our enemies: be it Daesh or AQ, the later still has the better cards to do so. If AQ decides to launch their next phase into

13 Al-Zawahiri expressed his early thought in an article in al-Mujahidun in April 1995. Like bin Laden, Zawahiri, now leader of al Qaida, has long placed targeting Israel farther down the operational totem pole than more immediate targets. In the 1990s, Zawahiri maintained, "the road to Jerusalem passes through Cairo." In other words, Palestine could be liberated only after illegitimate and insufficiently Islamic regimes in places such as Egypt were dealt with. Years later, in a letter to Abu Musab al-Zarqawi in Iraq, Zawahiri would explain that targeting Israel was a "fourth stage" goal following (or coming at the same time as) the expulsion of Americans from Iraq, the establishment of an Islamic emirate there, and extending the jihad to secular countries neighboring Iraq. http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/zawahiri-aims-at-israel-behind-al-Qaidas-pivot-to-the-levant 14 http://freebeacon.com/national-security/open-jihad-declared-in-egypt-following-state-dept-meeting-with-muslim-brotherhood-aligned-leaders/15 8 Feb 2015, Muslim Brotherhood-linked television stations based in Turkey have been calling on supporters to use violent means in Egypt in an attempt to overthrow President Sisi and his army-backed government and return the country to Muslim Brotherhood The official Muslim Brotherhood representative in Turkey, Ashraf Abdulgaffar, made a similar call, advocating a policy of "an eye for an eye." He said: "We are now in the retaliation phase. They [Sisi’s government] must taste pain, because there are traitors. My message to the Egyptian people is this: Stand firm and be ready for all sacrifices and prices to be paid.” Other statements went much further. A “communique” issued by an organization claiming to be the “Revolutionary Youth,” and broadcast on Muslim Brotherhood Rabia TV, threatened to launch terrorist attacks on foreign nationals in Egypt. The televised statement gave all foreign nationals until February 11 to leave Egypt, saying "after that they may become targeted by the movements of revolutionary retribution."




http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/zawahiri-aims-at-israel-behind-al-qaedas-pivot-to-the-levant

http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/zawahiri-aims-at-israel-behind-al-qaedas-pivot-to-the-levant


the west, foreseen culminate 2016-2018, it is likely they could absorb the “Near” Daesh activity into their orbit and become a powerfully and dangerous enemy with growing capabilities and motivated, trained, battle hardened fighters. The killing – by a member state of the US led coalition against them -of Daesh caliph Ibrahim, so far targeted more than once, could be AQ blessing and the turning point in favour of the AQSL. They have the long-term plan and vision and don’t like the current Daesh and its leader. As most of us didn’t notice or ignored Zawahiri who’s main focus is the Far around 2006 shifted – temporarily – the strategic focus from the Far to the Near in a likely move to facilitate phase 3,and 4 to set conditions for Five.

The key question here could be: do we see the prelude of an AQSL strategic shift into the next strategic phase? -**Ends

The New Propagandist For Al-Qaida In Syria And His Link To Hollywood OCTOBER 27, 2015 A screenshot of Lucas Kinney, a 26-year-old Briton who recently began making videos for Jabhat al-Nusra, the al-Qaida affiliate in Syria. Kinney's father is a veteran Hollywood assistant director who helped make such films as Rambo and the Indiana Jones series. Al-Qaida's arm in Syria, a group called Jabat al-Nusra, has just deployed a new weapon – a young British convert named Lucas Kinney. Kinney, 26, is making videos for the group and he's no stranger to filmmaking. His father is Patrick Kinney, a well-known Hollywood assistant director who worked on such iconic films as Rambo, Braveheart, and the Indiana Jones series, among others. The younger Kinney began appearing in slickly produced videos this month in a bid to help the al-Qaida affiliate recruit fighters to their cause. Among the things that set these latest productions apart is that Kinney's focus not on America, but rather on the sins of the Islamic State, or ISIS. "You can see here behind me the remnants of homes of innocent Muslims," he begins in a video he says was shot in the Syrian countryside outside Aleppo, where an attack by the Islamic State, or ISIS, had just taken place. "The followers of the so-called Islamic State decided that in the middle of Ramadan that the best worship they could perform is to bomb the houses of innocent Muslims," he says, calling on others to strike back at the Islamic State. "Glad tidings to those who kill them. Tomorrow if you don't stand up this could be your house," he says as the camera pulls back to show the destruction behind him.Rival Islamist Groups Jabat al-Nusra, the group that claims to have produced the videos, is an al-Qaida affiliated group in Syria whose avowed goal is to topple the Syrian regime of Bashar Assad.The Islamic State is more focused on its self-declared caliphate, and has been less active in battling Assad's regime. For that reason, some isurgents in Syria see al-Nusra as preferable to ISIS. Kinney and al-Nusra are trying to play upon those sentiments. Their strategy appears to be to release a series of on-the-ground videos that provide documentary proof of the many innocents ISIS is killing as it seeks to create a Muslim homeland.The Islamic State has made clear that anyone who doesn't subscribe to their extreme interpretation of Islam is fair game and can be marked for death. In the videos, Kinney is presented more like a documentarian touring a war zone than an al-Qaida propagandist trolling for recruits. In one of the new videos, Kinney travels to a mosque he says is in the countryside outside of Aleppo, in northwest Syria. This is where the Islamic State is now clashing with





Syrian regime forces. The mosque, Kinney says, was the target of an ISIS suicide attack. As the camera pans the room, you can hear people sweeping up glass. "This is the scene now," Kinney says, speaking into the camera and pointing to the blood on the floor. "Looking at all of this you can only imagine how it might have been, with I don't know how many brothers were sitting here ... Actually just from the force of the explosion here a number of the brothers were sent flying out of this window."A New Type Of Video The videos are a departure for al-Nusra, which has never been known for its presence on social media or slick propaganda. It isn't just the video's sense of immediacy, or the fact that they are in English that set them apart from al-Nusra offerings in the past. Instead it is the videos' cinematic quality. "A lot of the way the video was shot, I kept thinking of Homeland," says Will McCants, the director of the project on U.S. relations with the Islamic World at the Brookings Institution. "The way that they presented, his name or the location with computer type you'd see in Hollywood, for example, was quite striking." Kinney isn't the first Westerner to emerge as the front man for a violent Islamist organization.Osama bin Laden and al-Qaida's core leadership put a former heavy metal enthusiast from California named Adam Gadahn in charge of their Western propaganda efforts. The group's arm in Somalia, known as al-Shabab, made a young Alabama man named Omar Hammami their Western recruiter. He produced a series of jihadi rap music videos that were considered very effective in convincing Westerners to come to Somalia to fight there. And now al-Nusra appears to have chosen Kinney. McCants, who has just published a book about ISIS, says Kinney's video was very effective. "As a viewer, to see him go into the mosque and react to the aftermath it really underscored the message that he was delivering," he said. "The Islamic State is not doing what it is supposed to do, which is protect normal Sunni civilians. It is killing them and that is a key part of al-Nusra's anti-ISIS message."Unclear Motivations Why Kinney decided to join al-Nusra is still a mystery.His mother, who has been divorced from his father for more than a decade, told reporters that her son had, at one time, wanted to be a Catholic priest. He had gone to live with his father in Vienna, she said, and she believes he was radicalized there. Kinney's father has not spoken publicly about his son. Whatever drove Kinney to Syria and into the arms of al-Nusra, he's now emerged as the first white convert to join the ranks of the group and he appears to be trying to convince other potential recruits that, compared with ISIS, al-Qaeda is relatively moderate. "Honestly between the two groups ISIS has had much more fortune recruiting people and Jabat al-Nusra is trying to reverse that process," said Lorenzo Vidino, the director of the program on extremism at George Washington University. "ISIS has attracted tens of thousands of foreign fighters and al-Nusra is trying to offer an alternative." It is too early to tell how effective the new Kinney videos will be. ISIS followers, who tweet thousands of messages a day, have dismissed him on Twitter.





SYDNEY — A former Australian soldier who vanished in 2001 and was long thought dead is believed to have resurfaced as a senior al-Qaida commander in Syria. Mathew Stewart, a former infantryman who fought in East Timor, is believed to have fled to Afghanistan after telling his parents, Vicki and Peter, that he was going on holiday. His family heard nothing more from him and held a private wake in 2004. But it appears that the 39-year-old, who grew up on the Sunshine Coast in Queensland, is training combatants from Jabhat al-Nusra, the Syrian affiliate of al-Qaida. I’m really happy to be here as a member of al-Qaida, as a mujahid, but most importantly as a Muslim His apparent whereabouts emerged in the latest edition of al-Qaida’s English-language online magazine, Al Risalah, which featured an interview with a jihadist named Usama Hamza Australi. In the interview, the man said he was from Queensland, joined al-Qaida about 14 years ago and previously served in the Australian military. These details match Stewart’s description.

Rare Interview with Experienced Al Qaeda Commander Shows How Group Using ISIL to Make Itself Look 'Moderate' TEHRAN (FNA Oct 28)- Takfiri-Salafist terrorists in Syria released the second edition of Al Risalah, an English-language magazine. The publication, which was distributed via social media this week, is a thinly-veiled piece of al Qaeda propaganda. It isn’t officially published by the organization, but its al Qaeda messaging is obvious.Al Risalah’s newest edition includes an interview with a jihadist known as Usama Hamza

Australi, who is originally from Queensland, Australia. “I’ve been a member of Al Qaeda for approximately fourteen years — since mid-2001 until today,” Australi says. “I’m currently in Syria as a member of Al Qaeda Central (AQC), working on their behalf with [Al Nusrah Front].” Al Qaeda’s decision to send veterans to Syria, where they help steer Al Nusrah Front, an official branch of the group, has been well-documented. Yet not all of these experienced jihadists have been





publicly identified. In the interview, Usama Hamza Australi reveals not only his own personal role, but also additional details about al Qaeda’s operations. And he confirms a point The Long War Journal has repeatedly made: Al Qaeda is using the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) to reposition itself as a supposedly more “moderate” jihadist organization. “One of the greatest things about ISIL its that before people saw al Qaeda and the Mujahideen (in general) as the extremists, and those that abstain from jihad as the normal ‘moderate’ Muslims (following the middle-way),” Australi explains. “But now the truth has come out — the Mujahideen are in fact upon the correct and ‘moderate’ path, with ISIL being the extremists.” Australi concludes, “So I think that ISIL is a blessing in disguise for the Muslim Ummah [worldwide community of Muslims].” Of course, al Qaeda’s end goals are similar to the ISIL’s. Both want to build an Islamic caliphate based on their radical version of sharia law. Al Qaeda simply disagrees with the ISIL’s methodology, believing that caliphate-building is a longer-term project that requires the approval of the broader jihadist community. (Al Qaeda ideologues criticize Abu Bakr al Baghdadi and the ISIL for failing to win the approval of recognized jihadist authorities before declaring a caliphate over large parts of Iraq and Syria.) Al Qaeda also argues that sharia law should be implemented slowly in order to give Muslims, many of whom do not desire jihadist-style governance, the time to acclimate to laws they have not lived under.Australi makes some of these arguments in his interview. It is “obligatory upon us to fight jihad and to establish an Islamic Caliphate, this being our ultimate goal,” he says. Al Qaeda will not “compromise” when it comes to the Quran and “will not stop until our goal is reached.” That goal is the “full” implementation of sharia law.Australi continues, “But you have to understand there’s a way of implementing this — which is the way of the Prophet … and (then) you have the way of the Islamic State group.” The proper jihadist “ways can be corrupted, especially with the takfir methodology and ideology.”By comparing themselves to the ISIL, al Qaeda leaders have repeatedly portrayed themselves as representing a “correct” and “moderate” path, as Australi puts it. This helps al Qaeda attempt to build more popular support for its cause, while masking the true extent of its designs in Syria and elsewhere. Australi goes so far as to declare al Qaeda “merciful,” as compared to the ISIL. “I truly believe that al Qaeda’s methodology is the right way, the way of mercy, the way of forgiveness, the way of da’wah [proselytizing], the way of strength,” Australi says, “and strength is not just in killing.”Australi began his career in the Australian military before leaving for Afghanistan. Once there in mid-2001, he was taken in by the Taliban before joining al Qaeda’s ranks. He lavishes praise on the Taliban, arguing that the only real differences between the Taliban and al Qaeda were cultural and easily overcome. Australi fought in Afghanistan, including during the Battle of Tora Bora in late 2001, but says that he didn’t receive much military training at first. Instead, he was indoctrinated in al Qaeda’s ideology.Over time, Australi did receive guerrilla warfare training and was taught Arabic. From 2003 to 2014, he worked for al Qaeda in Waziristan and Afghanistan. “We conducted operations from artillery (mortar) strikes, to ambushes, to assaults and raids on Afghani (apostate Northern Alliance and others of their like), American and NATO forces in Afghanistan,” he says. Australi became so trusted that he met with some of al Qaeda’s most senior leaders, including Abu Yahya al Libi, Sheikh Mahmood, Hafiz Sultan, and Mustafa Saeed. He eventually became a trainer himself.Today, Australi works as a trainer for “Jaish Nusra,” which he says is a “purely military force (wing)” within the Al Nusrah Front “organization as a whole.” “I was sent from AQC to assist with [Al Nusrah Front], I’m working with Jaish Nusra as a military trainer





and advisor,” Australi says. He goes on to describe what this training entails. “Training tactically, working in small … I hate to use the word ‘Commandos’ … high standard infantry tactics, long range patrols, reconnaissance patrols, ambushing, raids, sabotage, harassment behind enemy lines, reaction to combat, how to fight with the enemy in a guerrilla warfare scenario, targeting convoys, targeting installations behind enemy lines with no support, and so on.”“These were some of the things I trained in for a number of years with the Australian military, and then experienced (in the battlefield) for almost fifteen years in Afghanistan (and here in Syria),” Australi explains. “I’m also involved in military operations … I’m a trainer who still lives to fight (smiles). Any chance I get to fight I’m certainly there, and any input, then I am certainly there.”Although it is widely believed that al Qaeda is primarily a terrorist organization that is solely focused on attacking the West, the reality is that al Qaeda has devoted most of its resources to waging insurgencies. As the 9/11 Commission found, most of al Qaeda’s trainees from the mid-1990s on were trained in guerrilla warfare, just like Usama Hamza Australi. And the training Australi offers in Syria today, as his own description shows, is of the same variety.“I insist that [Al Nusrah Front] trains the brothers in the highest standards of guerrilla warfare (tactics) because I believe that if they can handle the harshest, most difficult, and most intense military situations,” Australi says, “then they will be able to handle any other situation with more ease.”As for the future, Australi believes Jaish Nusra “is going back to the old style of fighting that [Al Nusrah Front] first became renowned for in the beginning of the Syrian War.” This includes “very strong assaults, strong ‘shock and awe’ tactics” and hitting “the enemy with force.”“We go into areas that the enemy doesn’t expect, and show the enemies of Allah that Jaish Nusra is here to stay,” Australi crows, “and if we enter into a battle we’re here to stay until it’s victory or Shahada [martyrdom].”

13 Sep 2015, "I call on all mujahedeen (Islamist fighters) in districts of Iraq and Syria to collaborate and help each other," said Zawahiri, who opposes last year's declaration by the Islamic State group (IS) of a "caliphate" straddling the two Arab states. To counter the campaign, Zawahiri called for Muslims "to take the war into the West's cities and against their installations, especially in the United States".

Baghdadi exhorts angsty young men to “erupt volcanoes of jihad everywhere.” Zawahiri offers lessons on political theory. O’ soldiers of the Islamic State, continue to harvest the soldiers. Erupt volcanoes of jihad everywhere. Light the earth with fire upon all those who rebel against God, their soldiers, and supporters. Carry on in your path, as you are the strong by Allah’s permission. Carry on, as you are the honorable. Carry on, as you are the superior. Carry on, as you are the victorious — God willing. Yet Zawahiri remains vital to al Qaeda. He is the last senior figure of the al Qaeda old guard that came of age fighting in the anti-Soviet jihad in Afghanistan alongside bin Laden. Most of the group’s original leaders are dead, and a few, like the Egyptian theologian Dr. Fadl, have rejected violence and condemned al Qaeda. A new generation might take up the torch upon Zawahiri’s death, but none have his name recognition or credibility.

The Islamic State leadership, in contrast, is more dynamic. Baghdadi electrified the jihadi world when he proclaimed a caliphate last year. His group’s campaign against Shiite “apostates” and military victories on the ground are a demonstration of the group’s prowess and emotionally appealing to jihadi sympathizers and would-be radicals. Zawahiri talks the talk; Baghdadi walks the walk.





The Islamic State is also wooing groups in the Muslim world and creating fissures in existing ones. In Nigeria, Boko Haram has pledged loyalty to the Islamic State, though what it means to be a “province” of the group remains unclear. Islamic State fighters are also active in Libya. In Sinai, local jihadis are pledging loyalty and beheading foreigners in imitation. In Afghanistan, Yemen, and elsewhere, cells claiming to act in the name of the Islamic State are active, posing a challenge to the al Qaeda-linked old guard leadership.Al Qaeda is strongest when we factor in its affiliate organizations: al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, al Shabab in Somalia, al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, and al-Nusra Front in Syria. AQAP in particular has done the most to carry on al Qaeda’s anti-Western agenda, training one of the Charlie Hebdo attackers and attempting to bomb U.S. airliners. Others have expanded their targeting of Western and international targets within their own local theaters of war but have not endeavored to launch attacks inside the United States or Europe.Yet even here al Qaeda seems on the decline, particularly when we consider the terrorism threat to the West. All the affiliates are focused first and foremost on the bloody civil wars in their regions. They hope to gain territory and expand their local control, but the wars are all-consuming, and terrorism overseas is at best a sideshow. The leader of al-Nusra Front even claimed the group does not want to attack Western targets and is exclusively focused on the civil war in Syria.

Bin Laden, Zawahiri, and the rest of the al Qaeda core leadership long emphasized attacks on the “far enemy” — the West and especially the United States — over attacks on the “near enemy” — the “apostate” regimes in places like Egypt that they wanted to overthrow has changed now; The Near by Political Guerilla war.

Assad’s regime has committed a number of crimes, according to Jund al Malahim’s founding parties. These include the displacement of of Al Ghouta’s residents in order to create a “rejectionist [Shiite] region” that would “change” the “identity” of Damascus 16. The goal is to “isolate it from the Muslim ummah that is waging jihad.” “We ask Allah almighty to make this operations room the beginning of a larger coalition that would gather factions under one flag and one army” that defends Muslims, attacks “the enemies of our sect and faith,” and liberates “the capital of the Umayyad,” the statement reads.

Usama Hamza Australi 17, I truly believe that al Qaeda’s methodology is the right way, the way of mercy, the way of forgiveness, the way of da’wah [proselytizing], the way of strength,” Australi says, “and strength is not just in killing.”

Al Qaeda is using the Islamic State to reposition itself as a supposedly more “moderate” jihadist organization.

“I’ve been a member of Al Qaeda for approximately fourteen years – since mid-2001 until today,” Australi says. “I’m currently in Syria as a member of Al Qaeda Central (AQC), working on their behalf with [Al Nusrah Front].” Al Qaeda is using the Islamic State to reposition itself as a supposedly more “moderate” jihadist organization. “One of the greatest things about IS [Islamic State] its that before people saw al Qaeda and the

16 BY THOMAS JOSCELYN | October 25th, 2015 Al Nusrah Front, Ahrar al Sham, Ajnad al Sham form anti-Russian alliance in Damascus countryside17 THOMAS JOSCELYN | October 25th, 2015Al Qaeda appears ‘moderate’ compared to Islamic State, veteran jihadist says





Mujahideen (in general) as the extremists, and those that abstain from jihad as the normal ‘moderate’ Muslims (following the middle-way),” Australi explains. “But now the truth has come out — the Mujahideen are in fact upon the correct and ‘moderate’ path, with IS being the extremists.” Australi concludes: “So I think that IS is a blessing in disguise for the Muslim Ummah [worldwide community of Muslims].” Al Qaeda simply disagrees with the Islamic State’s methodology, believing that caliphate-building is a longer-term project that requires the approval of the broader jihadist community. It is “obligatory upon us to fight jihad and to establish an Islamic Caliphate, this being our ultimate goal,” he says. Al Qaeda will not “compromise” when it comes to the Quran and “will not stop until our goal is reached.” That goal is the “full” implementation of sharia law.Australi continues: “But you have to understand there’s a way of implementing this – which is the way of the Prophet…and (then) you have the way of the Islamic State group .” The proper jihadist “ways can be corrupted, especially with the takfir methodology and ideology.” By comparing themselves to the Islamic State, al Qaeda leaders have repeatedly portrayed themselves as representing a “correct” and “moderate” path, as Australi puts it. “I truly believe that al Qaeda’s methodology is the right way, the way of mercy, the way of forgiveness, the way of da’wah [proselytizing], the way of strength,” Australi says, “and strength is not just in killing.” Although it is widely believed that al Qaeda is primarily a terrorist organization that is solely focused on attacking the West, the reality is that al Qaeda has devoted most of its resources to waging insurgencies.

The IEA18: Islamic Emirate gives sacrifices to protect Life, Property and Dignity of its People

Twenty two years ago on 24 June 1994, the Islamic Movement emerged under the leadership of late Amir ul Momineen Mullah Mohammad Omar Mujahid (May Almighty Allah bless and have mercy upon him) with the consensus and support of Islamic Scholars. The aim was to prevent massive corruption, fiefdoms and unscrupulous militias and to protect venerable Afghans from their harm, oppression and atrocities prevalent then. Later on, late esteemed founder was given the title of the Leader of the Believers in a big ceremony in Kandahar where a number of Islamic scholars gathered from different parts of the beloved country. The Jihadi caravan is reaching its destination if Almighty Allah wills and once again, our beloved country is in the phase of restoring freedom and independence. Today, the Islamic Emirate is entering into the second phase of its glorious history. The Muslim nation is eagerly awaiting the moments of the establishment of Islamic system and victories of the Muajhideen have buoyed up people’s hopes. They have the honor to preserve life, property and honor of the people. They are considered as a symbol of peace, stability, chastity and honesty – a tested remedy for the elimination of corruption, plunder, evils, immorality and have good record of women’s respect. Characteristics of Islamic system are apparently evident in it if we deeply study twenty two years history of the Islamic Emirate.

18 http://shahamat-english.com/islamic-emirate-gives-sacrifices-to-protection-of-life-property-and-dignity-of-its-people/




al-qaida chief ayman al-zawahiri the coordinator 2015 part 19-138-caliphate- the state of...

Documents