Presented at the Technical Workshop on Monitoring and Mitigating the Impact of the Global Financial Crisis

Manila, Philippines, February 17-19, 2009

Akhmadi

The SMERU Research Institute

GFC and Social IndicatorsThe effect of the current GFC on poverty and unemployment in Indonesia depends on the crisis’ impact on Indonesia’s economic growth and the effectiveness of the mitigation schemes being introduce.

GDP growth is projected at around 4.5 percentOn its own this may not significantly reduce poverty or unemployment

Poverty may or may not increase.Rice and fuel prices are fallingDependent on how deep the impact is on the urban labor marketEffectiveness of the intervention programs, especially poverty programs

Unemployment most likely to increase.How much depends on how severe the financial crisis affects sectoral growthUnderemployment and informal sector will most likely rise; youth will most likely be hit badly; demand for overseas migrant workers likely to fall; put further pressure on domestic labor marketExpect more to spillover to the informal sector

What Needs to be DoneThe 1997/1998 crisis taught us that to effectively target transfer programs, accurate and recent data on the impact of the crisis is necessary.Thus, poverty and unemployment monitoring systems need to be put in place to:

Evaluate the impact of the current GFC on socioeconomic conditions and dynamics (in real time) so that relevant policy recommendations, which will assist in the formulation of effective policies and programs, can be provided to the government.Monitor and evaluate the effectiveness of emergency policies put in place to respond to the negative impacts of the financial crisis.

The Role of CBMS

CBMS can play role to promote

• Real time }• Accurate } DATA• Reliable }

for mitigating the global financial crisis

CBMS Indonesia: backgroundCity of Pekalongan (1)

Indonesia

Central Java Province

CBMS Indonesia: backgroundCity of Pekalongan (2)

5,913267,574135,357 132,217 45.25 Total

8,32183,62842,539 41,08910.05 West Pekalongan

4,80671,19936,221 35,278 14.88 North Pekalongan

6,45662,31731,699 30,618 9.52 East Pekalongan

4,64250,13024,898 25,232 10.80 South Pekalongan

Population Density

TotalFemaleMaleArea(km2)

Sub District

CBMS Indonesia: Progress report as the way forward (1)

Phase I: 2008 - Feb 2009Data collection in 2 sub districtsData entry in progress Bappeda (Regional Development and Planning Agency)

CBMS Indonesia: Progress report as the way forward (2)Phase II: Mar - Apr 2009

Questionnaire Revision based on agreement The census will be conducted in the remaining two sub districts: North and West Pekalongan (regularly)Monitor Impact of the GFC: around 10 of 22 villages in the remaining 2 sub districts.

Phase II: May – Dec 2009The same activities with phase I: training to advocating the use of CBMS on planning and budgeting programs, will be conducted with the technical assistance of SMERU. Outputs are expected from this collaboration:

A census of all families in the city that will provide accurate data for planning policies and programs across different sectors, and monitoring the human development index (HDI) and the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs).A database on the community’s socioeconomic welfare.Welfare ranking of all families in the City of Pekalongan.

CBMS Indonesia: Progress report as the way forward (4)Frequency:

Yearly

Type of Analysis

PCA MethodDescriptive analysis

CBMS Indonesia:Monitoring the Impact of the GFC (4)Tools: Households and community questionnaires

Existing questionnairesAdding relevant questions based on indicators

Sites: around 10 villages in remaining 2 sub districts proportional of each sub districts

4 of 9 villages in North Pekalongan

6 of 13 villages in West Pekalongan

Description of Sites:South Pekalongan Sub districtSouth Pekalongan is a sub district in the City of Pekalongan, Central Java Province, Indonesia. South Pekalongan consist of 11 villages (kelurahan):

– Buaran– Kertoharjo– Jenggot– Banyurip Ageng– Banyurip Alit– Kuripan Lor– Kuripan Kidul– Soko– Yosorejo– Duwet– Kradenan.

Description of Sites:East Pekalongan Sub district

East Pekalongan is a sub district in the City of Pekalongan, Central Java Province, Indonesia. South Pekalongan consist of 13 villages (kelurahan):

– Kelurahan Kauman– Sampangan– Sugihwaras– Klego– Poncol– Keputran– Noyontaan– Landungsari– Karangmalang– Baros– Sokorejo– Dekoro– Gamer.

Description of Sites:North Pekalongan Sub districtNorth Pekalongan is a sub district in the City of Pekalongan, Central Java Province, Indonesia. North Pekalongan consist of 9 villages (kelurahan):

– Panjang Wetan– Kandang Panjang– Kraton Lor– Dukuh– Bandengan– Pabean– Krapyak Lor– Krapyak Kidul– Degayu.

Description of Sites:West Pekalongan Sub district

West Pekalongan is a sub district in the City of Pekalongan, Central Java Province, Indonesia. West Pekalongan consist of 13 villages (kelurahan):

– Kelurahan Kraton Kidul– Kramatsari– Bendan– Podosugih– Pringlangu– Medono– Bumirejo– Tegalrejo– Sapuro– Kergon– Kebulen– Tirto– Pasirsari.

Description of Sites:City of Pekalongan

Legend:

West

South

East

North

CBMS Indonesia: Timetable

Analysis data of the first 2 sub districts

1

Dissemination8

Report Writing7

Data validation and analysis

6

Data Processing5

Data Collection4

Training3

Questionnaires revision

2

DecNovOctSepAugJulJunMayAprMarFebActivitiesNo.

Sticker of CBMS data collectionin Pekalongan

Training to Data EnumeratorsSupervision is an important stage in data enumeration

CBMS Sticker at the poor and non-poor family houses

Pooling data

Data entry and supervision processes