Airside Expansion at Lambert Field:

The Blues in St. Louis

Airside Expansion at Lambert Field:

The Blues in St. Louis

Tudor Masek – December 6, 200716.871 Airport Systems Planning,

Design, and Management

Tudor Masek – December 6, 200716.871 Airport Systems Planning,

Design, and Management

22

OverviewOverview

Motivation

Expansions at Lambert

Trans World Airlines

Traffic Collapse

What Went Wrong?

Motivation

Expansions at Lambert

Trans World Airlines

Traffic Collapse

What Went Wrong?

Airport Master Plan

Local Tensions

Financing

The Road Ahead

Conclusion

Airport Master Plan

Local Tensions

Financing

The Road Ahead

Conclusion

33

44

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MotivationMotivation

STL traffic collapse in the new millennium– 30.6 mil pax in 2000– 13.4 mil pax in 2004

New 9,000 ft. runway at Lambert Field– Cost just over $1 billion– Friction with the local communities

Why the mismatch of supply and demand?

STL traffic collapse in the new millennium– 30.6 mil pax in 2000– 13.4 mil pax in 2004

New 9,000 ft. runway at Lambert Field– Cost just over $1 billion– Friction with the local communities

Why the mismatch of supply and demand?

66

Lambert-St. Louis AirportLambert-St. Louis Airport

Passenger traffic soared in the 1970s– Airport expanded terminal facilities, extends

runways, and increased capacity by 50% to keep up with demand

Boom continued in the 1980s and 1990s– Master Plan calls for additional airside capacity

Runway 11-29 construction– Approved in 1998, broke ground in 2001,

completed in 2005, opened in 2006

Passenger traffic soared in the 1970s– Airport expanded terminal facilities, extends

runways, and increased capacity by 50% to keep up with demand

Boom continued in the 1980s and 1990s– Master Plan calls for additional airside capacity

Runway 11-29 construction– Approved in 1998, broke ground in 2001,

completed in 2005, opened in 2006

77

Trans World AirlinesTrans World Airlines

Hub in St. Louis since 1982 De-regulation hit TWA hard

– Had neglected to develop domestic network Sold to Carl Icahn in 1985

– Bankruptcy in 1992 Icahn ousted in 1993

– Karabu Deal– Bankruptcy again in 1995

Short-lived turnaround in the late 1990s– Third bankruptcy– Acquired by American Airlines in 2001

Hub in St. Louis since 1982 De-regulation hit TWA hard

– Had neglected to develop domestic network Sold to Carl Icahn in 1985

– Bankruptcy in 1992 Icahn ousted in 1993

– Karabu Deal– Bankruptcy again in 1995

Short-lived turnaround in the late 1990s– Third bankruptcy– Acquired by American Airlines in 2001

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The Blues in St. Louis..The Blues in St. Louis..

American cuts service to Lambert-St. Louis– Flights to Lambert cut in half in 2003 – Lease renewed only for Concourse C in 2005– Passenger traffic through Lambert plummets

American cuts service to Lambert-St. Louis– Flights to Lambert cut in half in 2003 – Lease renewed only for Concourse C in 2005– Passenger traffic through Lambert plummets

History of Traffic at Lambert Field

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100

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1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

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Operations Passengers

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What Happened?What Happened?

So what went wrong at Lambert Field?– Bad planning?– Bad timing?– Bad luck?

Or was construction justified and within the scope of regional and national goals?– Is runway beneficial despite decline in demand?– Was the expansion project worthwhile?

So what went wrong at Lambert Field?– Bad planning?– Bad timing?– Bad luck?

Or was construction justified and within the scope of regional and national goals?– Is runway beneficial despite decline in demand?– Was the expansion project worthwhile?

1010

Lambert Airport Master PlanLambert Airport Master Plan

Original Master Plan (1987-1993) called for rebuilding the entire airfield– 4 new parallel runways rotated clockwise 10 degrees– Construction to take place while operations continue!

Master Plan Supplement initiated in 1994– Preserve Lambert’s role as critical link in NAS– Strengthen role as major economic asset hub– Provide facilities to keep Lambert competitive

Simultaneous independent IFR approaches

Original Master Plan (1987-1993) called for rebuilding the entire airfield– 4 new parallel runways rotated clockwise 10 degrees– Construction to take place while operations continue!

Master Plan Supplement initiated in 1994– Preserve Lambert’s role as critical link in NAS– Strengthen role as major economic asset hub– Provide facilities to keep Lambert competitive

Simultaneous independent IFR approaches

1111

12L12L

12R12R

30L30L30R30R

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2424

1310 ft1310 ft

1212

Traffic Forecasts & AssumptionsTraffic Forecasts & Assumptions

Low (no hub): 26 mil annual pax in 2015– Assumes loss of airline hub connecting traffic, with

eventual replacement by a new airline

Middle (baseline): 42 mil pax in 2015– Assumes business-as-usual– Was used for all the alternative comparisons

High (new hub): 56 mil pax in 2015– Assumes either increased hubbing by existing carriers,

new hub established by another airline, or higher-than-expected regional economic growth

Low (no hub): 26 mil annual pax in 2015– Assumes loss of airline hub connecting traffic, with

eventual replacement by a new airline

Middle (baseline): 42 mil pax in 2015– Assumes business-as-usual– Was used for all the alternative comparisons

High (new hub): 56 mil pax in 2015– Assumes either increased hubbing by existing carriers,

new hub established by another airline, or higher-than-expected regional economic growth

1313

Multiple Airport SystemMultiple Airport System

Option to develop Mid-America to relieve Lambert

– Lambert is 12 miles to the northwest of downtown

– Mid-America is about 19 miles to the southeast!

Airline hubbing makes this option infeasible

– Threshold for secondary airport seems to be 10 to 12

million originating passengers per year

– Demand forecast for St. Louis region indicates only

about 8.7 million originating passengers in 2015

Option to develop Mid-America to relieve Lambert

– Lambert is 12 miles to the northwest of downtown

– Mid-America is about 19 miles to the southeast!

Airline hubbing makes this option infeasible

– Threshold for secondary airport seems to be 10 to 12

million originating passengers per year

– Demand forecast for St. Louis region indicates only

about 8.7 million originating passengers in 2015

1414

Lambert Development OptionsLambert Development Options

Source: Leigh Fischer Associates, Master Plan Supplement Study, Lambert-St. Louis International AirportSource: Leigh Fischer Associates, Master Plan Supplement Study, Lambert-St. Louis International Airport

1515

W-1W DetailsW-1W Details

New 9,000’ x 150’ $1.059 billion runway (11/29)

4,100’ centerline displacement from 12L/30R

12,000’ threshold displacement

Average hourly runway capacity to increase from 97 to 131

Average taxi time to increase from 5.3 to 6.9 min per op

Reduction of operational and passenger delays both at

Lambert and in the National Airspace System

New 9,000’ x 150’ $1.059 billion runway (11/29)

4,100’ centerline displacement from 12L/30R

12,000’ threshold displacement

Average hourly runway capacity to increase from 97 to 131

Average taxi time to increase from 5.3 to 6.9 min per op

Reduction of operational and passenger delays both at

Lambert and in the National Airspace System

1616

More HighlightsMore Highlights

Acquisition of almost 1,600 acres, including 2,300 homes,

displacing about 5,680 people (City of Bridgeton)

Moved 18.3 million tons of soil; soil neutral

First automobile tunnel in the state of Missouri

Noise impacts projected to decrease

Improvement of air quality

Injection of over $400m into the economy through contracts

with 550 companies (80% local) employing 14,000 people

Acquisition of almost 1,600 acres, including 2,300 homes,

displacing about 5,680 people (City of Bridgeton)

Moved 18.3 million tons of soil; soil neutral

First automobile tunnel in the state of Missouri

Noise impacts projected to decrease

Improvement of air quality

Injection of over $400m into the economy through contracts

with 550 companies (80% local) employing 14,000 people

1717

Master and Land Use PlanMaster and Land Use Plan

Source: Leigh Fischer Associates, Master Plan Update for Airport Expansion, Lambert-St. Louis International AirportSource: Leigh Fischer Associates, Master Plan Update for Airport Expansion, Lambert-St. Louis International Airport

1818

Land AcquisitionLand Acquisition

Source: Lambert-St. Louis International Airport, Status Briefing for Society of Military Engineers, Nov 8 2004Source: Lambert-St. Louis International Airport, Status Briefing for Society of Military Engineers, Nov 8 2004

1919

Local TensionsLocal Tensions

Bridgeton sues the City of St. Louis (land use) Resistance from Bridgeton and interest groups

– Concerns about fair market price for land acquisition – Requested real-time simulation (MPS assumptions)

Bridgeton sues the City of St. Louis (land use) Resistance from Bridgeton and interest groups

– Concerns about fair market price for land acquisition – Requested real-time simulation (MPS assumptions)

2020

Terminal ExpansionTerminal Expansion

Mid-field satellite terminal concept

Demand driven development

Mid-field satellite terminal concept

Demand driven development

Source: Lambert-St. Louis International Airport, Status Briefing for Society of Military Engineers, Nov 8 2004Source: Lambert-St. Louis International Airport, Status Briefing for Society of Military Engineers, Nov 8 2004

Currently: 89 aircraft gate positions; ~1.5 million square feet

Projected future need: ~110 total gates (2015)

Site between runways can accommodate a satellite terminal with 150 additional gates positions

Currently: 89 aircraft gate positions; ~1.5 million square feet

Projected future need: ~110 total gates (2015)

Site between runways can accommodate a satellite terminal with 150 additional gates positions

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CC

EastEastDDMainMain

BBAA

ANGANG

EE

2222

Project FinancingProject Financing

Of the $1 billion cost of the project:

– Almost half of is for land acquisition

– Almost 40% is for construction itself

– The remainder is for management and consulting

overhead

Only about 1/3 of costs passed on to airlines

Construction completed on time and on budget

Of the $1 billion cost of the project:

– Almost half of is for land acquisition

– Almost 40% is for construction itself

– The remainder is for management and consulting

overhead

Only about 1/3 of costs passed on to airlines

Construction completed on time and on budget

2323

Traffic Forecast vs. ActualTraffic Forecast vs. ActualOperations at Lambert Field

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1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016

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Passengers at Lambert Field

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1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016

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Low Forecast Middle Forecast High Forecast Actual

Both Operations and Passengers are below the Low forecast!

Runway completed but terminal expansion abandoned

Both Operations and Passengers are below the Low forecast!

Runway completed but terminal expansion abandoned

2424

What’s Next?What’s Next?

Delay reductions– Lambert more attractive to new airlines

Excess in capacity– Renewed or increased hub operations?

On-time performance rankings– Lambert has performed better than O’Hare– On par with Dallas/Ft. Worth

Delay reductions– Lambert more attractive to new airlines

Excess in capacity– Renewed or increased hub operations?

On-time performance rankings– Lambert has performed better than O’Hare– On par with Dallas/Ft. Worth

2525

Competing HubsCompeting HubsHistory of Traffic at Dallas/Ft. Worth International

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1,000

1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008

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History of Traffic at O'Hare

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1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

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On-Time Departures at STL, ORD, and DFW

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On-Time Arrivals at STL, ORD, and DFW

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ConclusionConclusion

Demand forecasts were over-optimistic, BUT The need for the new runway was not demand-

driven but rather delay-driven Terminal expansion plans were (rightly)

abandoned as traffic plummeted New runway was probably cheaper to build than it

would have been 10 years later Runway 11/29 seems to have been justified and

will likely be invaluable when traffic returns to STL

Demand forecasts were over-optimistic, BUT The need for the new runway was not demand-

driven but rather delay-driven Terminal expansion plans were (rightly)

abandoned as traffic plummeted New runway was probably cheaper to build than it

would have been 10 years later Runway 11/29 seems to have been justified and

will likely be invaluable when traffic returns to STL

2727

Questions?Questions?