FAA CENTER OF EXCELLENCE FOR ALTERNATIVE JET FUELS & ENVIRONMENT

Project manager: Arthur Orton, FAAGeorgia Tech (Lead University): Dimitri Mavris (PI), Jimmy Tai (Co-PI)

Purdue: Daniel DeLaurentis, William Crossley (PIs)Stanford: Juan J. Alonso (PI)

Aircraft Technology Modeling and AssessmentProject 10

Opinions, findings, conclusions and recommendations expressed in this material are those of the author(s)and do not necessarily reflect the views of ASCENT sponsor organizations.

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OverviewObjective: Define range of scenarios that bound the demand for future aviation activity and assess the effects of different fleet composition, mission specification changes, and aircraft technology on fuel burn, emissions, and noise from aviation• Evaluate broad set of future scenarios out to 2050, showing potential benefits of

technology/mission spec. changes on fuel burn, emissions, and noise• Provide modeling and assessment mechanism for aircraft technology• Support NextGen Goals Analysis, other analyses

Approach:1. Develop a set of harmonized fleet assumptions for use in future fleet

assessments; – Workshops/consensus building among academia, government, industry

2. Model advanced aircraft technologies and advanced vehicles expected to enter the fleet through 2050; while– Leveraging, heavily, previous modeling work in CLEEN, NASA programs – and filling

gaps as necessary for scenarios developed in (1)

3. Perform vehicle and fleet level assessments based on input from the FAA and the results of (1) and (2).

Studies will be performed by each university team using in-house expertise and tools in complementary areas.

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Airline Fleet Allocation

Environmental Impact Metrics

Environmental Policy

Environmental Constraints

Fuel Tax

Projected Demand

Total OC

Aircraft Performance

MetricsAvailable Aircraft

Fleet

Biofuels Price

Fuel DOCNon-fuel

DOC + IOC

Fare

Fare Yield

Price-Demand Elasticity

Inherent Demand

GDP GrowthInitial Fleet

Improved Operational

Concepts and Technologies

FLOPS Models

Aircraft Technology Portfolio

Operating Aircraft Fleet

Aircraft Retirement

Aircraft Delivery

EIS Dates

Aircraft Production

Airport Capacity Constraints

Economic FactorsMarket Factors

Aircraft FactorsEnvironmental Factors

Airline Profit

EIA Fuel Price

ASCENT-10 Project Focus Areas

Ascent 10 Team

Fleet Benefits Assessment• Use each university’s analysis tools to

understand fleet level implications of advanced technology/mission spec. changes on• Fuel Burn• Emissions• Noise

Technology Assessment Assumptions Setting• Work with broader community to define a

standardized set of technology and fleet modeling assumptions for future benefits assessments

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

BAU

EV

AG

AG-C

Subsystem Technology

Impacts

Technology Effects on

Vehicle

Fleet Level Implications

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DEVELOPMENT OF FLEET & TECHNOLOGY MODELING ASSUMPTIONS

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Vehicle Analysis

Fundamental Assumptions & Approach

FLEET or GREAT

Technologies• Demand Forecast • Aircraft Retirements• Replacements Schedule• New Product / Upgrade Availability

Fleet Impact

OperationsTSFC Weight Aero

T1T2T3T4T5T6T7T8T9T10T11T12

• Benefit• Applicability• Availability

Technology Evolution

Time2015 2020

RJ

STALTA

SA

Scenarios

Scenario 1Scenario 2

…

Vehicle Performance Characteristics

• FB/Operation• Total Ops• Total FB

Fleet Analysis

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Scenarios

• A series of workshops at the fleet and technology levels were held to help define fleet assumptions and scenarios that will serve as the basis for future fleet environmental assessments

• Scope:

• Outcome will be a public-domain document to capture different fleet evolution scenarios

– Will be used as basis for analysis in this project, as well as leveraged by other projects (e.g. Goals and Targets Benefits Assessment)

Commercial passenger aviation • Today through 2050

Demand • What factors affect passenger demand for air travel and thereby the operations forecast?

Fleet evolution • When will there be new products when technologies can be applied?

Technology • Aircraft technologies, new aircraft configurations, mission specification changes (PUBLIC)

Participants: The U.S. Air Force, Airports Council International – North America, Booz Allen Hamilton, Boeing, Department of Transportation Volpe Center, Embraer, FAA Office of Environment and Energy, FAA Office of Aviation Policy & Plans, Georgia Tech, Honeywell, Lufthansa, Mitre, NASA, Pratt & Whitney, Purdue, Rolls-Royce, Stanford, Textron Aviation and Virginia Tech, General Electric

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Scenarios

• Workshop feedback has been used to formulate recommended scenarios

• Defined Scenarios with emphasis on technology impacts– Current Trends– Variations

• Environmental “Bounds” – Low/High• Demand – Low/High• Aircraft Technology – Low/High R&D

– Downselected to no more than a dozen interesting scenarios with meaningful descriptor settings and combinations

• Producing final scenario descriptions including specific time series data

• Have completed vehicles, but not yet included in fleet analysis– 50, 100, 150, 210, 300, 400+ passenger types– Technology variants from scenarios– Cruise Speed Reduction (CSR) variants also designed

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Aircraft Technology Energy PriceEconomic Growth

ScenariosSc

enar

ios

Low

Low Nominal Low Demand +Low R&D

High

Low Environmental Bounds “High”

Nominal High Demand + Low R&D

Nominal Nominal Nominal Current Trends “Best Guess”

High

Low

Nominal Low Demand + High R&D

High Environmental Bounds “Low”

Nominal Nominal Current Trends + High R&D

High Nominal High Demand + High R&D

* ‘Frozen technology’ scenario not shown aboveAlso evaluate with mission spec. changes

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Mission Specification Changes – Cruise Speed Reduction Impact on Fuel Burn

• Block fuel burn of re-designed aircraft is smaller by 4-15% depending on aircraft class and selected cruise Mach number

• In these re-designs the wing span is constrained to be smaller than the baseline aircraft value

• For each aircraft, the economically-viable CSR is typically around 8-10% of the baseline value (indicated with on the plot)

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Fleet Level Results GREAT

*Preliminary Results, do not cite or quote

• Scenarios are bounding cases• Technology has effect on fleet

composition, demand, and environmental impact at the same time

• Frozen Tech and High R&D are extremes

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Fleet Level Results GREAT

*Preliminary Results, do not cite or quote

Current Trends + High R&D

Current Trends Frozen Tech – In-Production Only

Current Trends “Best Guess”

• Frozen Tech is a worst case reference scenario

• Fleet Composition changes slowly

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Fleet-Level Results - FLEET

*Preliminary Results, do not cite or quote

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Deployed Aircraft by “Technology Age” - FLEET

• In the Best Guess and High R&D scenarios, the airline introduces newer technology aircraft as they become available

• Airline fleet in Best Guess and High R&D scenarios are primarily composed of New and Future-in-class aircraft by 2050

~4.10

~3.90

~1.10 ~1.13

~3.95

*Preliminary Results, do not cite or quote

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Next Steps

• Summary of Results– Presented workshop results / two tools / different opinions

• Next Steps– Complete quantitative assessment of selected scenarios– Present finalized scenarios and assumptions in report

• Available for use by other projects/analyses

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QUESTIONS?