airborne snow observatory - cepsymbasin swe declined from 218 to 42 taf in 59 days inflow was 289...
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Airborne Snow Observatory and Distributed Hydrologic Modeling: Next Generation of Snowmelt Runoff and Operations Forecasting
Thomas H. Painter, Ph.D. Scientist NASA - Jet Propulsion Laboratory California Institute of Technology MS 233-306D 4800 Oak Grove Drive Pasadena, CA 91109
Tel: (818) 393-8226 (office) (626) 319-3111 (mobile) Email: [email protected] Web: aso.jpl.nasa.gov snow.jpl.nasa.gov
BIOGRAPHICAL SKETCH Thomas H. Painter, PhD, is a Scientist at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory/Caltech and a research professor at the University of California, Los Angeles. His areas of interest are snow hydrology, radiative impacts of light-absorbing impurities on snow and glacier melt, multispectral remote sensing and imaging spectroscopy, and solar system astrobiology. He received the PhD and MA in Geography from the University of California, Santa Barbara and the B.S. in Mathematics from Colorado State University. He was an Assistant Professor of Geography at the University of Utah, and Research Scientist at the National Snow and Ice Data Center. He is a member of the American Geophysical Union, the European Geosciences Union, International Glaciological Society, and Western Snow Conference. Dr. Painter is the President of the Cryosphere Focus Group of the American Geophysical Union and member of the AGU Eos Editorial Advisory Board. He is the Principal Investigator on the NASA/JPL Airborne Snow Observatory.
ABSTRACT Snow cover and its melt dominate regional climate and water resources in many of the world’s mountainous regions. However, we face significant water resource challenges due to the intersection of increasing demand from population growth and changes in runoff total and timing due to climate change. Moreover, increasing temperatures in desert systems will increase dust loading to mountain snow cover, thus reducing the snow cover albedo and accelerating snowmelt runoff. The two most critical properties for understanding snowmelt runoff and timing are the spatial and temporal distributions of snow water equivalent (SWE) and snow albedo. Despite their importance in controlling volume and timing of runoff, snowpack albedo and SWE are still poorly quantified in the US and not at all in most of the globe, leaving runoff models poorly constrained. Recognizing this need, JPL developed the Airborne Snow Observatory (ASO), an imaging spectrometer and imaging LiDAR system, to quantify snow water equivalent and snow albedo, provide unprecedented knowledge of snow properties, and provide complete, robust inputs to snowmelt runoff models, water management models, and systems of the future. The ASO is being evaluated during a multi-year Demonstration Mission of weekly acquisitions in each of the Uncompahgre River Basin (Upper Colorado) and the Tuolumne River Basin (Sierra Nevada) beginning in spring 2013. The ASO data will be used to constrain spatially distributed models of varying complexities and integrated into the operations of the O’Shaughnessy Dam on the Hetch Hetchy reservoir on the Tuolumne River. Here we present the first results from the ASO Demonstration Mission.
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JPL Airborne Snow Observatory
Imaging snow water equivalent and snow albedo Principal Investigator: Thomas H. Painter, JPL/Caltech
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Outline
Why the Airborne Snow Observatory?
What is the Airborne Snow Observatory?
How has it worked in practice?
Results from Demonstration Mission 1 (ASO-DM1)
When can we get the Airborne Snow Observatory to do all that we want?
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Why ASO?
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Snow gives most of the water
But there is a lot more to it
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Elk Range, Colorado River Basin, April 2009
Senator Beck Basin, CO; Tmax 13-15 °C
Morteratschgletscher (Oerlemans, 2000)
What controls snowmelt?
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New insight from obsUncompahgre River,
ColoradoUpper Colorado River Basin
Ordinate
Senator Beck Basin Study Area San Juan Mtns
Upper Colorado River BasinAbscissa Painter et al (in preparation)
Funding: NASA Interdisciplinary Science
Runoff rate vs Dust Absorption2005-2010
Runoff rate vs Temperature2005-2010
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Forecasting
Dozier 2012
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Snow Covered Area
MODSCAG 3 April 2002
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Pillows and snow courses cover ~0.000000025 of the Tuolumne basin… or one forty millionth of the basin
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Why not just satellites?!
They are definitely a part of the mix
However, they have fixed flight operations – so they cannot adjust to cloud cover or fly upon demand
Those with the frequency needed cannot provide the spatial resolution needed
THEY DO NOT GIVE US SWE!
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Snow Water
Equivalent
Albedo
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What is ASO?
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Imaging Spectrometer0.35-1.05 μm
2 m spatial resolution from 4000 AGL
3D Scanning LiDAR1064 nm
1 m spatial resolution
Albedo
SWE
Uncertainty < 2%
Uncertainty < 5 cm
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How does ASO work in practice?
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Flight lines LiDAR composite
Point density
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Tuolumne River Basin, Snow Density simulationiSNOBAL model, 3 April 2013
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Mosaic of spectrometer
Spectrometer mosaic
3 May 2013
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Imaging Spectrometer Products
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ASO Results
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TUOLUMNE BASIN
weekly
UNCOMPAHGRE BASIN
weekly
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Snow Water Equivalent
(m)
SWETuolumne River Basin21 April 2013
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Albedo
AlbedoTuolumne River Basin21 April 2013
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Mt. Lyell Topographic
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Mt Lyell (natural color)
Imaging spectrometer data draped on snow-on digital elevation surface.Seam expresses need for tomorrow’s update to lidar spatial calibration and spectrometer camera model.
2 April, 2013
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Mt Lyell (SWE)
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Results
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ASO Results –
SWE
Tuolumne
Basin SWE declined from 218 to 42 TAF in 59 days
Inflow was 289 TAF, while melt was 203 TAF
Recharge, ET, and transient storage accounted for the difference
Melt rates varied based on solar input
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Uncompahgre River Basin (above Ridgway Reservoir)
19 April 2013
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Uncompahgre River Basin (above Ridgway Reservoir)
17 May 2013
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Uncompahgre River Basin (above Ridgway Reservoir)
17 May 2013
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Uncompahgre River Basin (above Ridgway Reservoir)
17 May 2013
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Uncompahgre River Basin (above Ridgway Reservoir)
17 May 2013
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All of this in < 24 hrsThe core of ASO is the supercomputing data analysis
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Hydro Modeling Results
Tuolumne
Precipitation and temperature were forecasted from 6/1
Simulated and observed inflow are similar from 5/15 through 6/1, the forecast point
Modeled SWE (red) corrected by ASO SWE (blue)
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Observed inflow much less than initial prediction
ASO-based forecast closer to observed
Reservoir operations were adjusted (draft reduced) after ASO forecast, HH reached the top of the gates, was full, and no water was lost to spill
Hydro Modeling Results
Tuolumne
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What is next for ASO?We are working through the last technical
details of scaling to cover the Sierra Nevada and Upper Colorado River Basin
in a timely mannerWe are working partnerships with the
State of California, Colorado River Basin States, Department of Interior