air transport framework the performance target d2 2.pdfdlm-0607-001-02-00a december 2006 sesar...

Air Transport Framework

ThePerformanceTargetD2

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2I ssued by the SESAR Consor t ium fo r the SESAR Def in i t i on Phase Pro jec t co- funded by the European Commiss ion and EUROCONTROL

SESAR Def in i t i on Phase - M i les tone De l i ve rab le 2

Issued by the SESAR Consor t ium fo r the SESAR Def in i t i on Phase Pro jec t co- funded by the European Commiss ion and EUROCONTROLDecember2006

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Preface.......................................................................................005

Executive Summary................................................................006

1 Introduction ........................................................................012

2 The 2020 Vision Of The Air Transport Industry .........014

2.1 Introduction ......................................................................014

2.2 Societal Expectations & Needs ...........................................016

2.3 Vision of Air Transport in 2020...........................................0172.3.1 Market Development ............................................................0172.3.2 The Air Space Users Value Chain ..........................................0192.3.3 Airspace Users’ Requirements for Air Traffic Services

from the ATM System ..........................................................021

2.4 Vision of the Future Management Frameworkof the European ATM System for 2020...............................0242.4.1 Overview .............................................................................0242.4.2 Business Management Framework of Future ATM System......0242.4.3 ATM Institutional & Regulatory Framework.............................0322.4.4 Subjects of Common Interest................................................035

3 Performance Framework And Targets.........................041

3.1 Introduction ......................................................................041

3.2 Application of a Performance-Based Approach ...................0423.2.1 Background on ICAO Approach.............................................0423.2.2 European Context ................................................................0443.2.3 SESAR Performance Framework ...........................................044

3.3 A Vision for Improved Performance Levels ..........................049

3.4 Initial Indicative Strategic Design Performance Objectivesand Targets.......................................................................0493.4.1 Cost Effectiveness................................................................0503.4.2 Capacity ..............................................................................0513.4.3 Efficiency.............................................................................0523.4.4 Flexibility .............................................................................0533.4.5 Predictability........................................................................0543.4.6 Safety .................................................................................0553.4.7 Security...............................................................................0563.4.8 Environmental Sustainability .................................................0573.4.9 Access and Equity................................................................0593.4.10 Participation ......................................................................0603.4.11 Interoperability ...................................................................061

3.5 Conclusions ......................................................................062

4 Short-Term Improvements Baseline.............................063

4.1 Short-term Context............................................................063

4.2 Capacity ...........................................................................0644.2.1 Airspace ..............................................................................0644.2.2 Airport .................................................................................065

4.3 Efficiency & Predictability...................................................0664.3.1 Airspace ..............................................................................0664.3.2 Airport .................................................................................066

4.4 Cost Effectiveness.............................................................067

4.5 Interoperability ..................................................................068

4.6 Safety...............................................................................068

4.7 Environment......................................................................069

4.8 Security ............................................................................070

4.9 Expected Performance Improvements.................................071

4.10 Conclusion ......................................................................072

5 Principles for the Way Forward To 2020.....................073

5.1 Introduction ......................................................................073

5.2 The Societal Expectations of ATM.......................................0735.2.1 The Environmental Aspects of ATM .......................................0735.2.2 The Security Aspects of ATM ................................................074

5.3 The Performance Framework .............................................074

5.4 The ATM Business Management Framework .......................075

5.5 The ATM Institutional & Regulatory Framework ...................0765.5.1 The ATM Institutional Framework - The Joint Undertaking ......0765.5.2 The Regulatory Framework of ATM........................................0775.5.3 The Safety Legislative/Regulatory Framework of ATM.............078

5.6 Subjects of Common Interest .............................................0795.6.1 The ATM Standardisation Process .........................................0795.6.2 The ATM Financing Aspects..................................................079

5.7 The Future Architecture of ATM..........................................0815.7.1 Principles for the Future ATM Architecture.............................0815.7.2 Safety Approach to the SESAR Architecture Activities .............0815.7.3 Performance Requirements ..................................................081

5.8 The Role of the Human in ATM ..........................................0825.8.1 Social Factors and Change Management ..............................0835.8.2 Human Factors ....................................................................0845.8.3 Recruitment, Training, Competence and Staffing ....................085

6 List of References.............................................................086

7 List of Abbreviations and Terminology ........................087

8 List of Figures & Tables ...................................................093

Annexes .....................................................................................094ANNEX I - Solution Risks ..........................................................094ANNEX II - Specific Process Assessment in D2..........................096

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The SESAR Consortium joins the forces and expertise of 29 companies and organisations together with 20 associated partners: from Airspace Users, Air Navigation Service Providers, Airports, Supply Industry and many others,

including Safety Regulators, Military, Pilots & Controllers Associations and Research Centres as well as significant expertise

from EUROCONTROL.

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The SESAR programme is the European Air TrafficManagement (ATM) modernisation programme. It willcombine technological, economic and regulatoryaspects and will use the Single European Sky (SES)legislation to synchronise the plans and actions of thedifferent stakeholders and federate resources for thedevelopment and implementation of the requiredimprovements throughout Europe, in both airborneand ground systems.The first phase of SESAR, the Definition Phase, is co-funded by EUROCONTROL and the EuropeanCommission under Trans European networks. Theproducts of this Definition Phase will be the result of a2-year study awarded to an industry wide consortiumsupplemented by EUROCONTROL’s expertise. It willultimately deliver a European ATM Master Plan cove-ring the period up to 2020 and the accompanyingProgramme of Work for the first 6 years of the subse-quent Development Phase.

The SESAR Definition Phase will produce 6 mainDeliverables over the 2 years covering all aspects ofthe future European ATM System, including its suppor-ting institutional framework. The scope of the 6Deliverables (Dx) are:• D1: Air Transport Framework – The Current

Situation • D2: Air Transport Framework – The Performance

Target• D3: Definition of the future ATM Target Concept• D4: Selection of the “Best” Deployment Scenario• D5: Production of the ATM Master Plan• D6: Work Programme for 2008 -2013

The SESAR Consortium has been selected to carryout the Definition Phase study, which for the first timein European ATM history has brought together themajor stakeholders in European aviation to build theATM Master Plan. The SESAR Consortium drawsupon the expertise of the major organisations withinthe aviation industry. This includes Airspace Users, AirNavigation Service Providers (ANSPs), AirportOperators and the Supply Industry (European andnon-European), plus a number of Associated Partners,including safety regulators, military organisations, staffassociations (including pilots, controllers and engi-neers) and research centres which work together withthe significant expertise of EUROCONTROL. This isconsidered to be a major achievement.

The second Deliverable, D2, has been produced inaccordance with its Milestone Objective Plan (MOP)[Ref 1] and the inputs of the eighteen Task deliverableswhich are providing the substantiating information andwhich are identified within the SESAR WorkBreakdown Structure. It is subsequently approved andaccepted by all project Participants.

The SESAR Consortium members:AEA (Association of European Airlines), ADP (Aéroports deParis), AENA (Aeropuertos Espanoles y NavegacionAérea), AIRBUS, Air France, Air Traffic Alliance E.I.G /G.I.E, Amsterdam Airport SCHIPHOL, Austro ControlGmbH, BAA (British Airports Authority, BAE Systems, DFSDeutsche Flugsicherung GmbH, Deutsche Lufthansa AG,DSNA (Direction des Services de la Navigation Aérienne),EADS (European Aeronautic and Space Company), ENAVS.p.A. (Società Italiana per l'Assistenza al Volo), ERA(European Regions Airline Association), FRAPORT, IAOPA(International Council of Aircraft Owner and PilotAssociations), IATA (International Air TransportAssociation), Iberia, INDRA Sistemas SA, KLM (KLMRoyal Dutch Airlines), LFV (Luftfartsverket), LVNL(Luchtverkeer Nederland), Munich International Airport,NATS (National Air Traffic Services), Navegaçao Aérea dePortugal (NAV), SELEX Sistemi Integrati, THALES ATM,THALES AVIONICS.

The SESAR Associated Partners:ATC EUC (Air Traffic Controllers European UnionsCoordination), Boeing, CAA UK (Civil Aviation AuthorityUK), ECA (European Cockpit Association), ETF (EuropeanTransport Workers’ Federation), EURAMID (EuropeanATM Military Directors), IFATCA (International Federation ofAir Traffic Controllers’ Associations), IFATSEA (InternationalFederation of Air Traffic Safety Electronics Association),Honeywell, Rockwell-Collins, Dassault (representingEBAA). Research Centres: AENA (Aeropuertos Espanolesy Navegacion Aérea), DFS Deutsche FlugsicherungGmbH, DLR (Deutsches Zentrum für Luft – undRaumfahrt), DSNA (Direction des Services de laNavigation Aérienne), INECO (Ingenieria y Economia delTransporte, S.A.), ISDEFE (Ingenieria de Sistemas para laDefensa de Espana), NLR (Stichting Nationaal Lucht-enRuimtevaartlaboratorium), SICTA (Sistemi Innovativi per ilControllo del Traffico Aereo), SOFREAVIA (SociétéFrançaise d’Etudes et de Réalisations d’EquipmentsAéronautiques).

Preface


December2006


� Air Transport - a continuously growing demand facing challenges

Air Transport is a vital element of people’s lives around the world.It stimulates national economies, global trade and tourism. Itbrings people together, face to face, as friends & families and faci-litates business opportunities. It responds to these human needsas no other manner of communication can. This is the main rea-son, together with the expected increase of the worldwide GrossDomestic Product (GDP), for a sustainable growth demand in AirTransport. Furthermore the military element of air transportenables States to support their defence and security policies.

As a result of the growing GDP, the annual European trafficdemand - if unconstrained - is forecast to reach at least 18 MillionIFR (Instrument Flight Rules) flights by 2020. All existing civil airs-pace users segments are expected to grow in volume but thecomposition of the market segments will change due to access toair transport being affordable to all citizens. The military volume oftraffic will remain stable but new generation of aircraft with increa-sed capabilities will need access to larger blocks of airspace. Inaddition new types of air vehicles will emerge such as Very LightJets (VLJs) and Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs).

� European Air Traffic Management System - operating close to its limit

These market developments are challenged by two main factors:

• The current Air Traffic Management (ATM) System wasdesigned decades ago and is based on an operational concept and technologies which are reaching their limits.

• The existing airport infrastructure cannot fully accommodate the increasing demand. While this could be partially mitigated by e.g. the use of secondary airports and an intermodaltransport system, additional airport infrastructure will still be required.

� SESAR - Key for Success

In response to the ATM challenge, the European Commission (EC)launched the SESAR programme, with the objectives, as expres-sed by Vice-President Jacques Barrot, to achieve a futureEuropean ATM System for 2020 and beyond, which can, relativeto today's performance:

• Enable a 3-fold increase in capacity which will also reduce delays, both on the ground and in the air,

• Improve the safety performance by a factor of 10,• Enable a 10% reduction in the effects flights have on the

environment and • Provide ATM services at a cost to the airspace users which is

at least 50% less.

� ATM - SESAR Vision

The SESAR Milestone Deliverable D1 concluded that“Business as usual is not an option”.

The proposed SESAR Vision is to achieve a performancebased European ATM System, built in partnership, to bestsupport the ever increasing societal and States’, includingmilitary, expectations for air transport with respect to thegrowing mobility of both citizens and goods and all otheraviation activities, in a safe, secure, environmentally sustai-nable and cost-effective manner.

Central to achieving this Vision, is the concept of placing the bestoverall outcome of individual flights at the heart of the ATM net-work. The SESAR Vision is dependent upon three distinct ATM fra-meworks, to which all stakeholders have to commit and operate :• The “Performance Framework”• The “Business Management Framework”• The “Institutional and Regulatory Framework”.

Executive Summary

The Performance TargetSESAR Def in i t i on Phase - M i les tone De l i ve rab le 2


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An ATM performance based approach is considered essential todrive management decisions towards achieving the Vision.

The present air traffic service performance assessment mainlyaddresses the performance of ANSPs. As this structure has pro-ven its value, it can form the basis for the evolutionary develop-ment of a Performance Framework extended to include all ATMstakeholders.

The SESAR Consortium has started to address the definition of the2020 performance by setting initial targets. These will be conti-nuously refined within the lifetime of the ATM Master Plan.

� The ATM Performance Targets for 2020

ATM performance covers a very broad spectrum of aspects, whichare represented through eleven Key Performance Areas (KPAs).The diagram below is illustrative of the KPAs and how they coulddevelop towards the 2020 targets.

Four KPAs, directly linked to EC objectives and the achievement ofthe proposed SESAR Vision are described below.

The other seven KPAs (Efficiency, Flexibility, Predictability, Security,Access and Equity, Participation, Interoperability) are addressed inChapter 3 of this document.

The KPA targets represent initial indicative values (workingassumptions), subject to further analysis and validation. All KPAsare interdependent and will be the basis for impact assessmentand consequent trade-off analysis for decision-making in the sub-sequent SESAR Milestone Deliverables.

The Performance Framework

FUTUREEUROPEAN

ATM SYSTEM

Predictability

Participation

Environment

Efficiency

Cost Effectiveness

Capacity

Access/Equity

Security

Safety

Flexibility

Interoperability LEGENDBaseline 2006Observed Year xTarget 2020

I l l us t ra t i on o f KPAs Per fo rmance Targe ts Deve lopment

Capacity - Traffic will grow.

In accordance with the political vision and goal, the ATM targetconcept should enable a 3-fold increase in capacity which willalso reduce delays, both on the ground and in the air (en-routeand airport network), so as to be able to handle traffic growth wellbeyond 2020.

The deployment of the ATM target concept should be progressive,so that only the required capacity is deployed at any time.

The target for Capacity deployment is that the ATM System canaccommodate by 2020 a 73% increase in traffic from the 2005baseline, while meeting the targets for safety and quality of ser-vice KPAs (Efficiency, Flexibility, Predictability).

Safety - Proactively manage safetywith the goal of no ATM related accidents.

The SESAR safety performance objective builds on theATM2000+ Strategy objective: "To improve safety levels by ensu-ring that the numbers of ATM induced accidents and serious orrisk bearing incidents (includes those with direct and indirect ATMcontribution) do not increase and, where possible, decrease".

Considering the anticipated increase in the European annual traf-fic volume, the implication of the initial safety performance objec-tive is that the overall safety level would gradually have toimprove, so as to reach an improvement factor of 3 in order tomeet the safety objective in 2020 (based on the assumption thatsafety needs to improve with the square of traffic volumeincrease).

In the longer term (design life of the concept) safety levels wouldneed to be able to increase by a factor 10 to meet a possiblethreefold increase in traffic.

Environment - ATM will deliver itsmaximum contribution to the environment.

As a first step towards the political objective to enable a 10%reduction in the effects flights have on the environment:

• Achieve the implicit emission improvements through the reduction of gate-to-gate excess fuel consumption addressedin the KPA Efficiency. However no specific separate target could be defined at this stage for the ATM contribution toatmospheric emission reductions.

• Minimise noise emissions and their impacts for each flight to the greatest extent possible.

• Minimise other adverse atmospheric effects to the greatest extent possible. Suitable indicators are yet to be developed.

• The aim is that all proposed environmentally related ATM constraints would be subject to a transparent assessment with an environment and socio-economic scope; and, following this assessment the best alternative solutions from a European Sustainability perspective are seen to be adopted.

• Local environmental rules affecting ATM are to be 100%respected (e.g. aircraft type restrictions, night movement bans, noise routes and noise quotas, etc.). Exceptions are onlyallowed for safety or security reasons.

Cost-Effectiveness – Halve the total directATM costs.

The working assumption for the Cost Effectiveness target is tohalve the total direct European gate-to-gate ATM costs from€800/flight (EUROCONTROL Performance Review Report 2005)to €400/flight in 2020 through progressive reduction.Notwithstanding this 2020 target, continuing cost improvementshould be sought after 2020.


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DynamicWorking

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GovernanceStructure

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BusinessFramework

GovernanceStructure

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PerformanceFramework

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Its objective is to ensure that new Operational Concept will be fullyimplemented in a consistently organized manner throughout allphases of the European ATM System lifecycle, including ATM stra-tegic planning starting with the ATM Master Plan.

In order to achieve this objective the stakeholders, including airs-pace users, airport operators and air navigation service providers(ANSPs) will have to establish an ATM Performance Partnership.This will define roles and responsibilities based on a shared set ofvalues, priorities, and network interactions.In particular joint decision-making and coordinated business plan-ning must be the basis of the ATM Master Plan, the economic andfinancial analysis of the ATM Master Plan. The introduction of thisframework represents a paradigm shift for each stakeholder fromthe present fragmented decision making process to the executionof a common ATM strategic planning.

In the ATM Performance Partnership, Functional Airspace Block(FAB) initiatives are strongly supported and seen as one of themain vehicles to improve ATM performance, reducing the impactof fragmentation on the cost of air traffic service provision. Thesewill initially develop through regional arrangements betweenStates and ANSPs and lead to further ANSP cooperation, alliancesor mergers, including the appropriate regulatory structures.

The financing and funding of the future ATM System will dependupon the options chosen for the business model of the ATMPerformance Partnership, while avoiding an increase in the unitrate due to peak investment costs. Several options are to be stu-died to support the transition, from a fully capital market drivenpre-financing scheme to a reasonable mix between chargingscheme and financial market pre-financing, including possiblePublic Private Partnership (PPP) models.

This “Performance Framework” provides a common basis toensure the effectiveness of the ATM System and links the othertwo ATM frameworks - the “Business Management Framework”and the “Institutional and Regulatory Framework” together which

are balancing general public and industry interests in a “dynamicworking relationship”, that addresses how the safety, security,environmental, design and financial aspects are managed andregulated.

The ATM Business Management Framework

Futu re European ATM Sys tem

Its objective is to ensure societal expectations are met and toenable the development, operation and growth of a sustainableEuropean air transport system, through the Business Framework.

It needs to have a simple and well-structured set of regulationsand regulatory actions allocated at global, European or nationallevel, whilst continuing to rely on Member States for enforcement.It will respond to States requirements and work closely with indus-try to ensure rules are fair, proportionate and to safeguard a levelplaying field.

The SESAR Joint Undertaking (JU), as the first European ATM PPP,is seen as an important move forward and an initial step tomanage the development of SESAR. It is considered as an initialstructure capable of maintaining the ATM Master Plan, managingthe R&D programme of technical activities, and monitoring itsdeployment.

The ATM Institutional and Regulatory Framework has to be flexibleso it easily adapts to business and societal changes. Although out-side the scope of the SESAR project, the modernisation of this fra-mework is considered to be urgent by the industry.

The ATM Institutional and Regulatory Framework


December2006


New Operational Concept - The Goal

It has been acknowledged that the primary objective of theConcept is to get the “best overall outcome” for a flight – this cha-racteristic of the Concept is referred to as the “BusinessTrajectory”.

The “Business Trajectory” is the representation of an airspaceuser’s intention with respect to a given flight. It is aimed at gua-ranteeing the best outcome for the flight as seen from the airspaceuser’s perspective. At the airspace user’s discretion this outcomemay be with respect to the minimum time for the flight, the mini-mum cost, or any other characteristic of the trajectory. Althoughperhaps not as obvious as for commercial airlines, business avia-tion, general aviation and the military also have their own “busi-ness” intention. The emphasis is on “intention” and naturally, allmust be carried out in a manner which guarantees the safety oflife and takes into account the need to meet environmental andsecurity requirements.

It is the basis for all partners in the ATM System design, planningand operation to enable the optimal performance of the flight,resulting in optimization of the whole European network perfor-mance.

The notion of a business trajectory will be used, replacing the flightplan in use today. The business trajectory is based on a 4-D flighttrajectory supplemented with additional information describing thebusiness attributes of the flight, under the overall coordination ofa network wide traffic management.

The performance of the future ATM System will then be builtaround delivery of air traffic services which enable these trajecto-ries, with all partners in ATM working to a common time referenceand a common set of values and goals. The functional design ofthe System will have a coherent system-wide information mana-gement to facilitate the collaborative decision-making. The Systemwill deliver air traffic services, which allow seamless en-route-to-

en-route operations, integrating gate-to-gate performance and theairport turn-around process for best overall ATM System perfor-mance.The future ATM System will be designed and operated to providea quality of service, which maximises predictability and minimisesthe amount of variability within the constraints of the availableinfrastructure.

Short term Improvements – first step in theright direction

The first SESAR Milestone Deliverable (D1) identified the mostrelevant blocking points in the airspace and airport areas for whichpromising and mature initiatives have been further analysed.

• For Cost-effectiveness and Capacity these initiatives appearto have the potential for operational savings of approximately€0.5-1 Billion/year by increasing capacity. At least one third isderived from a more efficient use of existing airspace and airportresources.

The recommended short term improvements will be significant forthe medium fast growing airports. The large European airportshave already implemented these solutions and should look atmore efficient use of Collaborative Decision Making (CDM) toenhance capacity under all conditions. Some short term improve-ment at some locations might be difficult to achieve due to localpolitical considerations.

• Safety – Meeting the challenge of maintaining and where pos-sible improving safety levels in the short term will require thedeployment of a consistent approach to improving safety manage-ment in Europe. The European Safety Programme is considered tobe the most suitable vehicle to generate the necessary changes.

This is to be complemented on the airport side with theImplementation of Advanced Surface Movement Guidance andControl Systems (A-SMGCS) coordinated with the European ActionPlan for the Prevention of Runway Incursions.

Improved Operations to meet the Performance Targets



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Irrespective of any future vision the human will remain the mostflexible and creative element to direct the performance of the ove-rall ATM System including the management of threats, errors andunpredictable events. In order to meet the challenge of the perfor-mance objectives of the future ATM System, the Concept ofOperations will evolve and will benefit from greater support fromautomation and an increased integration of airborne and groundcapabilities.

It is identified that the changes in the operation of the future ATMSystem will involve a change in the human roles which requires anextensive change management process that integrates HumanFactors, Social Dialogue and all relevant aspects of recruitment,training, competence verification and staffing proactively andthroughout the entire process of system development, design andimplementation.

The European Civil Aviation Sectorial Social Dialogue Committee isconsidered as a first promising step to have a European social dia-logue, which could be expanded to cover more social provisions byway of collective agreements if social partners (at European level)so desire.

Continuous social dialogue between management and operationalstaff at a working level should be established as one importantmeans in an advanced change and transition management pro-cess to identify and address the social impacts of introducedchanges. A better awareness and understanding of the SocialDialogue practices and processes can be created. Its effectivenessand impacts on ATM performance should be further investigatedduring the SESAR Development and Deployment Phase.

• Environment – abatement procedures and techniques, basedon existing technical enablers in current aircraft should be furtherimplemented to improve flight efficiency and help to minimiseaviation’s impact footprint. It is essential that stakeholders areseen to adopt and deliver challenging and robust environmentalsustainability policy. At airports in particular, a more pro-activeapproach is expected, including adoption of CollaborativeEnvironmental Management (CEM) process between ANSPs, usersand airport operators, and supported by effective engagementwith local communities.

• Security – Improvements will be achieved through the collabo-rative support of the ATM System with relevant civil and militaryauthorities, using agreed information and communication techno-logy security components. The NATO/EUROCONTROL ATMSecurity Coordination Group (NEASCOG) has set up a Programmeof Work to enhance ATM Security including several actions appli-cable for the short-term.

The Role of the Human in ATM

For the long-term economic development of Europe and its airtransport system, States and the European air transport industrystakeholders must adopt the Vision and agree on the ATM Systemperformance targets to meet the expectations. This will require thecommitment and support of all stakeholders and a willingness toparticipate in emerging new structures.

It is anticipated that growth at some high-density airports will belimited, despite operational mitigations to improve their utilisation.Therefore additional airport infrastructure will be required forEurope to maintain its competitiveness.

The present European air traffic service provision must transitiontowards a performance-based approach. A firm ATM PerformancePartnership is essential, in which all stakeholders have the sharedunderstanding of the need to optimise collectively the ATM Systemperformance and agree on targets and trade-offs. For example theeffectiveness of SESAR will be critically dependent on reinforcingthat air traffic management is an integral part of airspace users’and airport operators’ businesses.

The European air transport industry must act collectively, on envi-ronmental sustainability. Moreover the ATM Partners, must fostertheir contribution to the protection of the environment by conside-ring noise and atmospheric impacts. It is vital that sustainability iswoven into ATM decision making. Present efforts of the EuropeanAir Transport Industry on improving environmental efficiencyshould be accelerated by implementing all relevant measuresrapidly.

The Business Trajectory concept will ensure the best outcome forall individual flights; all stakeholders have to acknowledge theirresponsibility towards the enabling of an effective operation of theATM System, including the safety, environmental sustainability andsecurity aspects associated with the transportation of public andgoods and all aeronautical activities.

Performance Partnership is Key!

Conclusions


December2006


The SESAR Milestone deliverable D1 identified the Air TransportFramework - The Current Situation and concluded that thenature and scope of the European ATM System had to change. Itrecommended that all ATM aspects throughout the wider air trans-port industry should be brought together to function as one sys-tem and be managed by one management framework as shown

in Figure.1-1. This fundamental conclusion from D1 and the asso-ciated recommendations made within it form the basis from whichD2 has been developed.

Air Transport Framework – The Performance Target (theSESAR Milestone Deliverable D2) provides the economic outlookfor the air transport industry in 2020 with an associated visionhow this outlook will shape the future European ATM System tomeet the performance required for 2020 and beyond.

The ATM System covers specifically the operational and technicalaspects, including the principal functional elements making up the

System’s architecture and the information needed to flow betweenthem [Ref.21]. The management framework is defined to be theoutline structure needed to coherently and consistently manage allof the aspects needed to make it perform as a single ATM Systemin the widest sense.It means bringing those aspects of ATM, which exist today in the

scope of the airspace users’ and airports’ industries into one sys-tem and one management framework. This management frame-work will require governance arrangements to achieve a balancebetween the growing needs of the aviation industry and respectingthe needs of society as a whole. These governance arrangementswill consist of a representation from all major stakeholder groups,including State/Governmental bodies as appropriate.

1 Introduction

NON-EUROPEANASPECTS OF

ANSPs

ATM ASPECTSOF AIRSPACE

USERS

ATMASPECTS OFAIRPORTS

FUTUREEUROPEAN

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AIRSPACEUSERS

AIR NAVIGATIONSERVICE

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F igure 1-1 Out l i ne o f the fu tu re f ramework fo r the European ATM Sys tem



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It is proposed that the management framework covering the futureEuropean ATM System is explicitly partitioned into a businessmanagement framework and an institutional/regulatory manage-ment framework, both of which operate according to the sameoverall performance framework as shown in Figure 1-2. However,a “Dynamic Working Relationship” should exist between themanagement frameworks, not only to ensure the appropriatetransparency of their activities, but also to facilitate them underta-

king co-operative working practices that are driven by the com-mon aim of realising benefits for the air transport industry and theEuropean society as a whole.

The structure of this document is as follows:

Chapter 2 – THE 2020 VISION OF THE AIR TRANSPORT INDUS-TRY identifies and characterises the vision of the Air TransportIndustry in 2020 and the framework for the future European ATMSystem. This vision addresses the business management aspects,the institutional/regulatory aspects and provides an outline of theorganisational arrangements, which link the principal manage-ment functions to be performed within and between these twomain areas.Chapter 3 – PERFORMANCE FRAMEWORK AND TARGETS cha-racterises in detail the performance framework, which will be usedto define, measure and manage the performance of the futureATM System. This includes the definition of the performance tar-gets, which will be used to scope the design of the future ATMSystem, especially the future Target Concept.

Chapter 4 – SHORT-TERM IMPROVEMENTS BASELINE identifiesand recommends short-term improvements (in the timescale bet-ween 2008 and 2013). These short-term improvements respondto some of the weaknesses of the current ATM System, whichwere identified in D1. They will be harnessed and used to informand scope the more rigorous assessment of on-going initiativeswhich will be included in the SESAR milestone deliverable D4.Chapter 5 – PRINCIPLES FOR THE WAY FORWARD TO 2020 iden-

tifies a number of principles, guidelines and aspects of “best prac-tice” which are associated with the major subject areas. These willbe used to steer, govern, enable and/or direct the design anddevelopment of the future ATM System framework. They havebeen derived from the strengths of the current situation as identi-fied in D1 and are considered to be qualitative requirements whichshall be taken forward for consideration in the future.

Notwithstanding the snapshot of the current situation described inD1 as well as the vision and, plus performance targets, outlined inthis D2 document, it is acknowledged that very few of the envisa-ged change proposals can take place, nor most of the major bene-fits can be realised without a significant, coherent change andcontinuous political will to deliver it throughout Europe today. Thisis needed to make some fundamental changes to the governancestructures and, the values, which steer the approach taken tomaking decisions about air transport, and the way in which airtraffic is managed at present.

DynamicWorking

RelationshipInstitutional& RegulatoryFramework

GovernanceStructure

at Societal Level

BusinessFramework

GovernanceStructure

of the Business

PerformanceFramework

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F igure 1-2 Re la t i onsh ip be tween Ins t i tu t i ona l /Regu la to r y, Bus iness & Per fo rmance F rameworks


December2006


The air transport industry aims to meet the needs of other indus-tries and society as a whole by offering products and services,which facilitate achieving mobility by air. Figure 2-1 shows thisrelationship in very simple terms, together with its ensuing rela-tionship with the future European ATM System. Overall the ATMSystem aims to meet the needs of all airspace users and airport

operators by supplying services, which expedite the safe and effi-cient movement of aircraft throughout the airspace and airports’infrastructure.

In this chapter a brief outline of society’s future needs and expec-tations of the air transport industry is given. This is followed by theoutline of a vision for the air transport industry in 2020 and

beyond, together with a vision for the future European ATM Systemto accompany it. Throughout the description of these visions thebinding thread will be the:

1 - Notion of the demand for and supply of air traffic services(as depicted in outline terms in Figure 2-2).

2 - Conduct of ATM in accordance with the seven ATM Operational Concept Components defined by ICAO [Ref.21].

3 - Whole being driven by an ATM performance framework based upon the eleven key performance areas (KPAs) asdefined by ICAO [Ref.21].

2 The 2020 Vision ofthe Air Transport Industry

2.1 Introduction

SOCIETY

AIR TRANSPORTINDUSTRY

FUTUREEUROPEAN

ATM SYSTEM

Air Transport Industryí sneeds & requirements

of the FUTURE EUROPEANATM SYSTEM

Society’sneeds & expectationsof the AIR TRANSPORT

INDUSTRY

ATM services deliveredby the FUTURE EUROPEAN

ATM SYSTEM to meetneeds & requirements

Products offered tosociety by the

AIR TRANSPORT INDUSTRYto meet needs &

expectations

F igure 2-1 Pr inc ipa l re la t i onsh ips be tween Soc ie ty, A i r Transpor t I ndus t r y and ATM Sys tem



015

Figure 2-2 shows the principal relationships between the airspaceusers, airport operators and the future provision of air traffic ser-vices from the ATM System. The relationship is dictated by an ATMbusiness model, which is derived from the models of the individualstakeholders models and where joint decisions are required regar-ding the performance of the ATM System. Airspace users placedemand for capacity upon airports in terms of the infrastructure(e.g. runways and terminal facilities). Airport operators provide theairspace users with the amount of infrastructure they can supply.Airspace users place the demand for the capacity of airspaceupon the ATM System and, together with the airport operators, thedemand for the provision of air traffic services as a whole. TheATM System supplies the access to airspace in conjunction withthe provision of the appropriate air traffic services with the princi-pal aim of maximising the use of the available infrastructure in themost efficient and cost effective manner to the benefit of all the

stakeholders. In addition, common challenges such as safety,environment, and security require an ATM partnership within asupportive and harmonising framework in order to deliver the mostcost effective solutions and avoid unnecessary constraints. It isthis tripartite relationship, which will form the basis of the visionfor the future European ATM System.

The vision for the management framework of the future EuropeanATM System will develop the relationship shown in Figure 1-2,addressing explicitly the business and institutional/regulatoryaspects. Whilst SESAR is addressing the institutional and regula-tory aspects of ATM, it must be remembered that almost allaspects of the air transport and wider aviation industry are subjectto regulation in a variety of forms. The overall aim is to maintaincoherence with these, where appropriate.

DEMAND FORCAPACITY OF AIRSPACE

& PROVISION OF AIRTRAFFIC SERVICES

FUTURE EUROPEANATM SYSTEM

AIRSPACEUSERS AIRPORTS

AIR NAVIGATIONSERVICE

PROVIDERS

DEMAND FORPROVISION

OF AIR TRAFFICSERVICES

DEMAND FOR CAPACITYOF AIRPORT INFRASTRUCTURE

PROVISIONOF AIRPORT INFRASTRUCTURE

SUPPLY OFAIRSPACE CAPACITY &AIR TRAFFIC SERVICES

F igure 2-2 Out l i ne o f P r inc ipa l Re la t i onsh ips w i th European ATM Sys tem


December2006


Today, aviation is a fundamental pillar of global society. Society’sexpectations from aviation are, therefore, not only to achieve grea-ter mobility through the provision of safe and environmentallyacceptable air transport services, but to achieve greater globalstability in terms of peace and security, whilst allowing, in princi-ple, access to all through the promotion of all forms of aviation toachieve a higher “quality of life”. This encompasses not only thosewho have a commercial interest in providing air transportationmeans, but also military organisations who have an obligation toprovide defence and security services and those who wish to pur-sue aviation related activities for increasing knowledge, leisureand enjoyment.

The global environment affecting the demand for air transport overthe next two decades is expected to continue to vary in line withthe fluctuations in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth.However, short-term events can easily create competing pressu-res between the ease with which the means to supply air trans-port can be obtained and the ability to meet the changing natureof the demand. Consequently, although the trend is expected to befor steady growth as economic globalisation continues, the peaksand troughs of the fluctuations, together with their timing willalways create uncertainty.

The pace and extent of globalisation will continue to be the predo-minant driver for World economic growth. Between 2006 and2020, the global GDP is forecast to grow at an average annualrate of 3.5%, but this will not be uniformly distributed geographi-cally. Of the major developed economies, the United States, atalmost 3%, is expected to outpace both the European Union, ataround 2%, with Japan struggling to reach 1%.

The fastest growth is anticipated to be from the developing eco-nomies in Asia, especially those of China and India. This shift willresult in Asia taking a greater share of Global GDP, rising fromaround 35% in 2005 to slightly over 43% by 2020. During thesame period Europe’s contribution is thought to fall slightly fromabout 21% in 2005 to 19% by 2020.

In addition, expectations are for:

• Populations to shift towards living in cities.• An increase in the average age of the World’s population.• Increased tourism, with:

� Traditional destinations still able to accommodatesignificant growth.

� Emerging markets opening up new destinations.� A wider group from society as a whole having larger

disposable incomes.

Cargo is a fundamental part of the air transport industry and abouthalf the intercontinental volume is carried in passenger aircraft.Demand is concentrated between and/or within the 3 main pillarsof the World’s economy, namely Asia-Pacific, North America andEurope, with typically around 60% of the World’s freight tonne kilo-metres (FTKs) moving within the United States. Naturally increa-sing commerce and further globalisation will create demand forsuch air cargo services, these being aligned with the growth figu-res outlined above.

2.2 Societal Expectations and Needs

Growth in GDP• Average of ~3.5% per annum• Rate highest for developing economies un Asia

Demographics of Population• Major proportion of people living in cities• Average age increasing

Evolution of Tourism• Traditional destinations not yet saturated• New destinations being opened• Greater disposable incomes across wider societal

groups will fuel demand• Growth rate expected to be between ~2% per

annum (Europe, N America, W Africa) & ~7.5% per annum (Far East, Middle East, S Africa)

Global Trends

Mobility demand & modal spilt• Share of passenger air traffic expected to increase

from 8% in 2000 to 11% in 2020

Revenue Passenger Kilometers (RPK)• Expected to increase by ~4.4% per annum

Market segmentation & Fleet Development• More very small jets & more very large aircraft• Different growth rate across different segments

Overall demand for flight movements• Expected to increase by ~4.2% per annum

Network adjustment due to constraints• Lack of infrastructure at airports may constrain

growth to ~3.4% per annum

Trends in Europe



017

Stimulated by this economic growth there will clearly be an increa-sing demand for air transport services overall, with continual pres-sure on air transport operators to offer these at competitively lowerprices. End customer value is reflected in the quality of the airtransport services offered and received. In general, the characte-ristics of mobility, frequency, punctuality, accessibility and connec-tivity, coupled with confidence in the degree of safety and securityunderpinning the service, plus the approach being taken to meetother societal aspirations in a responsible manner (e.g. the impactproviding the service has upon the environment) all determine thequality. However, it is the value for money embodied within theprice of the product (and hence, the cost effectiveness of delive-ring the service) that will prevail.

In addition to being subjected to pressures from the end custo-mers for “more for less”, air transport operators will also find itmore difficult to control variability in their direct operating costs, beable to respond quickly to short-term fluctuations in demand andcreate a sustainable business. The price of crude oil is forecast toremain above US$50 per barrel for the next 25 years and beyond.The overall demand for energy will increase, as a result of econo-mic growth, and the fluctuations in the price of crude oil are ine-

vitable. This may slow economic growth, since a long-termincrease of US$5 per barrel can typically result in a 0.3% reduc-tion in GDP growth. Furthermore, global risks, such as terroristattacks, will affect the air transport market at different levels. Last,but by no means least, there will be an increasing pressure on allair transport stakeholders to minimise the impact aviation has onthe environment. To create a long-term sustainable aviation indus-try the air transport operators need to have a more detailedunderstanding of their respective business models to identify thepressures, which can be applied throughout their various valuechains, including the ATM value chain.

While air transport makes a significant positive contribution tosociety’s quality of life, prosperity and culture, society presentlyexpects as well that the increasing socio-economic costs of avia-tion’s adverse environmental impacts are minimized. Advances intechnology and/or environmental performance are expected to besignificant, but policy response to those opposing interests mayinclude further constraints on the ATM system and ATM shouldtherefore pursue every opportunity to support aviation in becomingmore sustainable and achieving the optimum balance betweensocial, economic and environmental imperatives.

2.3.1 Market Development

The EUROCONTROL long term forecast 20041 has been selectedas the reference [Ref.25] for studying the future of air traffic inEurope at the 2020 horizon. However, it must be remembered thatit forecasts only the number of IFR flights, not air traffic demandas a whole, but due consideration will be given to all of the maincategories of flight, as appropriate.

The forecast considers four main scenarios, namely :

• Scenario A : Greater globalisation and rapid economic growth,with free trade and open skies agreements encouraging growth in flights at the fastest rate.

• Scenario B : Business as usual, with moderate economic growth and no significant change from the status quo andcurrent trends (Note: EU expansion is at its fastest in thisscenario).

• Scenario C : Strong economies and growth, but with strong government regulation to address growing environmental issues. As a result noise and emission costs are higher, which encourages a move to larger aircraft and more hub-and-spoke operations. Trade and air traffic liberalisation is more limited.

• Scenario D : Greater regionalisation and weaker economies leading to increased tensions between regions, with knock-on effects limiting growth in trade and tourism. Consequently,

there would be a shift towards increased short haul traffic.Security costs increase further beyond 2010, with the price of fuel being at its highest in this scenario, it reaching close to 40% of the airline operating costs by 2020 and beyond.

In order to consider the most demanding criteria which could beplaced upon the future ATM System by the most optimistic ofexpectations for global economic growth, Scenario A has beentaken as the basis for the development of the future air transportvision and the setting of the performance targets for the System.

Based upon the economic forecasts outlined in section 2.2, thetotal added value of air transport to the European GDP could be upto €470Bn by 2020. Clearly this equates to the largest expectedincrease in the amount of air traffic, with the overall European ave-rage annual growth in the number of IFR flights for the period2006-2020 forecast to be around 4.2%2/year. However, withoutmajor expansion plans, airports will constrain this growth toaround 3.4%/year.

In 2020, traffic demand is forecast to be around two times higherthan in 2005. With 9.1 Mn flights having taken place in Europe in2005, this translates into approximately 18 Mn in 2020. SomeEuropean airports will struggle to accommodate such growth andin 2020 around 60 airports are expected to be congested whilethe top 20 airports are saturated for 8-10 hours/day3.

2.3 Vision of Air Transport in 2020

1 - With updates from the 2006 version to be released in December 20062 - The forecast from D1 is a 4.4% average per annum over the period from 2005 to 2025, expressed in revenue passenger kilometres (RPK). This is consistent with the 4.2% figure for the unconstrained demand in the number of flights.3 - ECAC/EUROCONTROL Challenges to Growth Study 2004.


December2006


The effect of the lack of airports’ infrastructure in constraining thedemand is shown in Figure 2-3. The expectation is that the growthin air traffic will be constrained to be about 1.7 times higher thanin 2005, resulting in the ability to accommodate only about 16 Mnflights. If airports’ capacity fails to meet demand, there could be a

potential yearly loss to Europe of about €50Bn of added value in2020 growing to €90Bn and up to 1.5 Mn jobs in 2025.

As 70% of the 50 largest European airports have reached theirsaturation points today, a clear vision is needed of how to bothcreate more capacity to ensure the European economy overallremains competitive and to ensure the best operations.

The obvious solution would be to simply build more runways andthis must certainly be strongly progressed. However ecologicaland land management considerations within Europe prevent newrunway capacity to be added easily. Therefore complementarymeasures must also be taken to mitigate against the potential impactof a lack of airport capacity. These measures should include:

• Developing new technologies and procedures that can optimizethe use of the available airport capacity commensurate with meeting the environmental performance requirements, which will surely accompany them.

• Improve the coordination during the tactical flight planning process of the departure and arrival times between airports tominimise the potential loss of capacity due to real-time changesin circumstances throughout the tactical flight planning process.

• The airspace users’ decision to change their business model

to maximise the benefits, which can be realised from the circumstances being presented at any one time (e.g. redistributingthe demand to airports which do have spare capacity).

• Enhancing the All Weather capability of the system to maintainthe capacity of airports under all conditions.

• Other possibilities to provide and/or secure additional airport capacity should include measures such as engagement with local communities, improved and enforced land-use protection,as well as an increased joint civil-military use of military airfieldsand/or a transformation of airfields abandoned by the military.

• Establishing an inter-modal transport structure within which air transport and railway industries can compete on an equallycompetitive basis, providing complementary services to their customers through interconnecting international airports,regional airports and highly populated cities.

Traffic growth is forecasted to be at its strongest outside ofEurope. This means inter-continental traffic flows will make up alarger portion of the overall traffic.

Figure 2-4 summarises, for scenario A, this overall expectedgrowth in IFR flights, showing the geographical distribution of theprincipal traffic flows.

2.3 Vision of Air Transport in 2020 (continued)

5

Effect of airport constraintsin the highest

growth scenario (A)

Effect in the lowestgrowth scenario (D)

0

1970

IFR

FLIG

HTS

PER

YEAR

IN E

SRA

(MIL

LION

)

1980

Actual

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

15

10

25

202.5

2.1

1.71.6

1.0

Scenario AScenario BScenario CScenario D

F igure 2-3 E f fec ts o f A i rpor t Cons t ra in ts on Growth Scenar ios



019

It is expected that some types of demand will, at times, grow fas-ter than others. This is summarised as follows:• The market share of low-cost airlines could reach 25% within

the next 6 to 7 years, but the distinction between low-cost airlines and other carriers is likely to diminish in the longer term.

• Business aviation is forecast to grow substantially, with its fleetexpected to increase by 1000 aircraft in Europe within the next15 years. EBAA reported a steady growth at around 5%/year.

• According to IAOPA, GA (mostly VFR) traffic is expected to growsteadily at an average of 2%/year up to 2020.

• Global RPKs of those European carriers, which operate intercontinental services, can increase faster than their RPKs in European airspace.

• New types of demand may emerge, such as:� Air taxis providing more personalised types of air

transport service using very light jets (VLJs).� Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) being used, for example,

more extensively by the military, police, and for the carriageof freight.

� The range of aircraft sizes will expand, with micro-jets appearing at one end of the scale and ultra-large jets at theother.

� The number of military air movements is not expected to increase greatly. However, the size of airspace required andthe need for flexible routing options will change due to the need to operate new types of aircraft, evaluate increasinglysophisticated weapon systems and exercise their associatedtactics.

As tourist destinations change, and as the service-based economyof Europe increasingly shows its ability to shift geographically, it isaviation, more than any other transport mode, which is recognised

as being able to service the changing demand. In the future air-craft operators must be able to reconfigure their network to meetthe demand wherever it may be.

2.3.2 The Airspace Users Value Chain

The airline industry is recovering from one of its worst crises.Several airlines have gone out of business and in certain regionssome are still facing bankruptcy. This situation raises fundamentalquestions about the financial sustainability of the so-called “legacycarriers” and of their associated traditional business model.

Air transport creates value, both externally to its customers and inter-nally to those stakeholders within the air transport value chain, butinvestors in the industry need a satisfactory return to justify their invest-ments. Some sectors within the chain are able to cover the cost of theircapital [Ref.2], but currently the airspace users are not. A number ofissues have been identified [Ref.2] that affect today’s performance and,potentially, constrain the ability of the air transport system to organiseand operate at maximum effectiveness in the future. These relate to:• Achieving financial sustainability.• Managing the expectations of the end customers when the

pressure from them is for “more for less” in a liberalised,competitive market for the supply of air transport services.

• Continually managing the price of the end product with respectto their costs.

• Maximising the use of some infrastructures, which are locally saturated.

• Having to interact with today’s ATM System, which is veryfragmented [Ref.2].

• Having to meet regulatory obligations, which often overlap andalso are unharmonised.

AVERAGE ANNUALGROWTH IFR FLIGHTS2003-2025

More than 5%4% to 5%3% to 4%

Scenario A : Globalisation and Rapid Economic Growth(Thicker arrows have more traffic)

North Atlantic

Others

Far East

SouthernAfrica

NorthAfrica

Mid & SouthAtlantic

Mediterranean

East

North West

ESRA

Former CIS Region

Middle East

F igure 2-4 Growth by Tra f f i c F lows expec ted in the EUROCONTROL S ta t i s t i ca l Re fe rence Area (ESRA)

D1 concluded that some changes are needed to strengthen thevalue chain to the benefit of society as a whole, the end customersand the air transport stakeholders. The specific time when air traf-fic will be double that of today might be uncertain, but the aimmust be to design the future ATM System to accommodate suchgrowth. Because the current System functions, within some cor-ners there might be a resistance to change. However, to preparefor the future it is in everyone’s interest to start initiating the nee-ded changes.

It is unlikely, nor indeed necessary, to alter all parts of the airtransport value chain. Neither may it be possible to directly affectsome parts of it. It is considered that the best approach to streng-then it would be to alter the institutional environment (i.e., regula-tions, how it operates and the financial framework) in which the airtransport system responds with new models to deliver the needsof the end customers.

The following summarises the main aspects that are considered tobe of importance to the principal airspace user groups whenconsidering how to shape the vision of the future ATM System.

2.3.2.1 Commercial Airlines

The liberalisation of world markets and the rise of the Internet inthe last decade has had a fundamental impact on the global eco-nomy and the airline industry. The resulting increased competitionhas created customer expectations for lower prices and conse-quently, reduced the pricing power of the industry. To survive thischange legacy carriers had to react by significantly reducing theircosts and customising their products to meet customer needs.Between 1990 and 2000 average yields fell by about a third inreal terms and the airline industry responded by increasing its pro-ductivity by typically 45%. Despite this effort the operating profitnever exceeded 2.9%, and ranged as low as -3.9% in 2001.

Commercial airlines order aircraft according to the future marketforecasts for air transport services, but in many cases, operatewithin the capacity constraints of the available infrastructure atairports and the wider ATM System. This “disconnect” needs to beaddressed such that the planning and implementation of thefuture infrastructure needed responds to the needs of the market.

To cater for the different needs of the market, and according to theinfrastructure capability available, different air transport businessmodels have evolved, resulting in different values. Further evolu-tion of these will be inevitable, but the main characteristics andfuture expectations for each are summarised as follows:

• Legacy carriers:� The products offered by the major airlines are adapted to

all types of passenger, but the core of their business is the

business traveller, with last-minute bookings, open tickets and catering for long-haul and short-haul journeys.

� The hub and spoke style of operation is, and will remain,a necessity for carriers with an air transport network. This isparticularly important for long-haul services when managingthe different types of customers whilst keeping farescompetitively low. However, if hub airports are unable to accommodate the growth needed, the network will distort,with a possible loss of less profitable (mainly short-haul) markets.

� Driven by competition and continuing liberalisation of the market, the future consolidation of legacy carriers is a continuingexpectation through business failures, mergers and alliances.Today 3 major Worldwide alliances exist which have a strong European dimension – British Airways/Oneworld,Lufthansa/Star, Air France-KLM/Skyteam. The total worldwidemarket share of alliances today is ~55% in terms of RPK and ~50% in terms of revenue. With new members expected,these figures will increase to ~61% and ~60% respectively.

� On short haul, the flight itself is more of a commodity. The main differentiation is made through the ground service,with network services sold at a premium.

• Regional carriers:� The product tailored to the small business, short-haul market,

or can be used by legacy airlines as a feeder to a hub.� Although on a different scale to the legacy carriers, the same

pressures and values prevail regarding short-haul operations.� In a competitive environment it is not possible to serve a

selected market without a minimal number of flights (and this number decreases with distance). For example, on short haul, it is not possible to compete against rail or roadwithout having a sufficient frequency in the number of flights. This will become an increasing problem unless sufficientairspace and airport infrastructure is available in the future.

• Low-cost carriers:� The product has been created to provide point-to-point,

short-haul services aimed at the individual traveller who is able to define their journey very early before departure.

� Their business model is based on a high fleet utilisation through short turn around time and strict passengers policiesas well as minimum overheads.

� Similar pressures and values prevail regarding short-haul operations, but the point-to-point nature enables greater flexibility to open and close routes to respond to rapid changesin demand.

� Driven by competition and continuing liberalisation of the market, the future consolidation of low-cost carriers is a continuing expectation, primarily through business failures,mergers and take-overs.


December2006





021

• Charter and “on–demand” flights:� Some traditional carriers have become “squeezed” between

changes to the products offered by legacy carriers and those offered by the low-cost carriers, with some creating low-cost carrier products in order to capture a share of the market.

� A continuing significant demand for seasonally driven (e.g.to established holiday destinations), very short-term driven (e.g. to major sporting events) and “new product” driven (e.g. day trips to popular historic cities and places) capacitybeing sold to groups.

� Expectations are for a trend towards more longer distance flights than has been generally the case in the past.

� Some aspects and behaviours are very similar to those of General Aviation.

2.3.2.2 General Aviation and Business Aviation

General Aviation (GA), and Business Aviation (BA) (in this documentGA and BA should be understood to include rotorcraft, aerial workand sports aviation) enable people and goods to move in an “ondemand” manner, which is quick, flexible and efficient over distan-ces ranging from very local flight activities to intercontinentalflights. Since GA and BA have a low requirement on ground infra-structure, they can operate not only at the main international air-ports, but also the more remote regional aerodromes. People andgoods are transported for a wide variety of both commercial andprivate purposes. Since GA and BA aircraft can be used in a veryflexible manner, in effect offering a more “personalised” form of airtransport, it is expected to become increasingly more valuable tosociety, commerce and individuals.

In developing States such aviation is typically State-sponsored,whilst in States with a more developed economy, greater relianceis upon funding from private enterprise. For example, the businessmodel of a GA commercial enterprise is a small company, ownedby less than 4 or 5 persons, operating typically less than ten air-craft and delivering a wide range of services as outlined above.This model is not expected to change in the next two decades. InEurope, GA, whether commercial or non-commercial, is basedupon private investment and private funds for operation. However,in some States the fuel is tax-free and some support aviation clubsas they are considered of social and cultural value. While GA inEurope has stagnated over some decades because of rising costsof fuel, maintenance and regulation and because the fleet of GApower driven aircraft is aging, new aircraft types are now in pro-duction. With the advent of highly fuel-efficient engine types andadvanced airframes it is expected that GA will develop at a rate of~2 %/year up to 2020 and BA at a rate of ~5%/year. However,this will to a large extent depend on a reduction of the cost ofregulation and taxation.

GA activities will continue to need large portions of the airspace inwhich to operate, particularly in the low altitude structure, and to

be able to gain access to airports located in closely controlled airs-pace, either to operate into major airports, or to peripheral, so-cal-led reliever airports. For BA in particular, having a future ATMSystem, which allows access to airspace and airports withoutdelay, will be fundamental for the viability, health and growth ofthis sector.

2.3.2.3 Military Aviation

The strategic objectives of military stakeholders are determined byNational security and defence policies, international security anddefence commitments and the resulting political decisions.Consequently, the drivers and values are different from those ofthe other air transport stakeholders.

Expectations are that EU Member States, whilst more closely coor-dinating their needs for air traffic services from a future EuropeanATM System, will continue to retain full responsibility for theirnational infrastructure, plus base their requirements upon andmake decisions from a sovereign national perspective. However,major enhancements in civil-military co-operation and co-ordina-tion to facilitate meeting simultaneously military and civil needsare expected to occur to the maximum extent possible in thefuture. In particular, the future defence and security environmentwill require a more standardised and flexible ATM System wherenew mission profiles can be efficiently accommodated and wheremilitary contributions to the air transport value chain are fully reco-gnized. The enhanced civil-military co-operation and co-ordinationmust develop new mechanisms, criteria and structures to improveATM efficiency and cost effectiveness through a more integratedcivil-military management of the European airspace, reducingfragmentation and duplication of infrastructure.

2.3.3 Airspace Users’ Requirements for Air Traffic Services from the ATM System

From the characteristics, values, drivers and expectations high-lighted in section 2.3.2, it is clear that in order for airspace usersto capture the future market for air transport services in a sustai-nable manner and meet the needs of an increasingly sophistica-ted end customer who has greater choice, influence and purcha-sing power over these services, they will need to put greater pres-sure on their suppliers to provide “value for money”.

Despite the broadening of the customer base and the divergingnature apparent in some of their needs, the need from the airportoperators and future ATM System are quite common – more capa-city in terms of access to airspace and airports’ infrastructure, anda more capable ATM System than exists today.

In order to bring together, in a more detailed manner, the variouscharacteristics of the airspace users’ needs, the notion of a so-called “business trajectory” has emerged as being central to theway in which they envisage the future ATM System performing.


December2006


The ““business trajectory” is “the representation of the businessintention of an airspace user with respect of a given flight. It isaimed at guaranteeing the best business outcome for the flight asseen from the airspace user’s perspective. At the airspace user’sdiscretion this outcome may be with respect to the minimum timefor the flight, the minimum cost, or any other characteristic of thetrajectory. Although perhaps not as obvious as for commercial air-lines, business aviation, general aviation and the military also havesome kind of “business” intention, even if the detailed terminologyto define it, and the criteria upon which it is based, are different.Notwithstanding such differences, the accent is on “intention” andnaturally, all must be carried out in a manner which guaranteesthe safety of life and takes into account the need to meet environ-mental and security requirements.” [Ref.3]

Being able to fly the flight profile, which is embodied within thistrajectory, is the ultimate goal and consequently, the airspaceusers require the future ATM System to enable them to do so. Theinitial trajectory intention should no longer be constrained bylegacy airspace divisions.The business trajectory will, by guaranteeing “the best businessoutcome”, maximise the value for the airspace users and thus,strengthen the whole air transport value chain. It will also be sup-

ported by the business management and institutional and regula-tory frameworks of the ATM System, which are structured, andincentivised to achieve the same aim.

Although all airspace users have different business models, theirexpectations on the provision of air traffic services and the (air-side) performance of airport operators is principally focused“equally” on access, cost effectiveness, efficiency, capacity andsafety. However, flexibility and predictability expectations can varydepending upon the applicable business model. These differenceswould be expressed in the “business trajectories” and, of course,depend upon the capabilities of the aircraft being used.

The structure and scope the airspace users’ needs as well as thecharacteristics embodied within the “business trajectory” aretranslated into the performance requirements of the future ATMSystem. These are expressed by the 11 KPAs as developed byICAO [Ref.21]. Table 2.1 lists the KPAs and gives an explanation ofhow they will be considered and used to scope, define targets forand manage the performance of the future ATM System. There areinteractions between KPAs that may result in new and revisedrequirements than the consideration of a single KPA at a time.

Access & Equity The future ATM System should provide an operating environment to ensurethat all airspace users have the right of access to the necessary ATM resources needed for them to fulfil their specific requirements in a safe manner.

Although not a direct characteristic of the operating performance of the futureATM System, it is a principle, which enables the relevant performance to beachieved in other areas.

Capacity The future ATM System should provide the capacity to meet the demandat the times when and where it is needed.

This is a key operational performance area which must be considered inconjunction with the need for efficiency, flexibility, and predictability, whilst, inparticular, ensuring that there are no adverse impacts on performance in the areas of safety and environmental sustainability.

Cost Effectiveness The price of the air traffic services provided by the future ATM System shouldbe cost-effective with respect to meeting the individual needs of the relevantairspace user.

Efficiency Efficiency addresses the operational and economic cost-effectiveness of flightoperations from a single-flight’s perspective and will be central to achievingthe environmental performance targets, which will be placed upon the futureATM System.

Clearly it is a key area for assessing operational performance and is at the heart of being able to achieve success through flying the business trajectory.

In addition to single flight perspective, the overall network efficiency isconsidered as well.

Environmental Sustainability The lack of a high level of environmental sustainability performance could impact stakeholders’ reputation.

The future environmental system performance will be a requirement and the future ATM System must meet their obligations in this respect. Although not a direct characteristic of the operating performance of the future ATM System,performance criteria will be defined as part of the requirements placed uponaviation as a whole and therefore, the contribution that the ATM System must make, and should be seen to make, to minimise the impact.

Key Performance Areas Airspace Users’ Expectations of the Future ATM SystemTable 2.1 : Characterisation of Airspace Users Expectations




023

Flexibility Flexibility addresses the ability of all airspace users to modify the requirements they place on the future ATM System in a dynamic manner.

Clearly it is a key area for assessing operational performance and is also at the heart of being able to achieve success. In this case it is having theability to make changes to the business trajectory, thereby permitting operational opportunities to be exploited as they occur.

Interoperability The functionality and design of the future European ATM System must be based upon the use of global standards and uniform principles to ensure technical and operational interoperability of ATM Systems can be achieved.

Although not a direct characteristic of the operating performance of the future ATM System, it is a principle, which enables the relevant performance to beachieved in other areas since, for example, failing to do this will clearly havea financial impact on aircraft equipage and hence, investment costs.

Participation As changes to factors which will affect the performance of the future ATM System, either directly or indirectly, are identified, all stakeholders must maintain acontinuous involvement in the identification, scoping, planning andimplementation activities to ensure the air traffic services provided remain“fit for purpose”.

Although not a direct characteristic of the operating performance of the future ATM System, it is a principle which enables the relevant performance to beachieved in other areas, especially with respect ensuring future changes tothe ATM System are identified, scoped, planned and implemented in a manner which ensure its performance will be to the maximum benefit of all stakeholders.

Predictability Predictability refers to the ability of the future ATM System to enable the airspace users to deliver consistent and dependable air transport services. It is essential to airspace users as they develop and operate their business trajectories.

Clearly it is a key area for assessing operational performance and is also at the heart of being able to achieve success by offering a high quality of serviceto the end customers.

Safety Safety is afforded the highest priority in aviation and the provision of air trafficservices plays a key role in ensuring overall aviation safety.

Society will always expect zero accidents from the aviation industry as a whole and performance from this perspective sets the end customers’ confidence in air transport. The lack of a high level of safety performance would impactstakeholders’ reputation and thus, influence customer choice. Improvements in safety will also impact the cost of air transport.The safety performance of the future ATM System must play a key part in enabling aviation to meet society’s expectation and therefore, it is a key area of overalloperational performance.

Uniform safety standards, risk assessments and safety management practices must be applied rigorously and systematically to the design and performance of the future ATM System to deliver high quality products.

Security Security aspects can be considered in a very similar manner to the way in which safety has been considered. Security refers to the protection against both direct and indirect threats, attacks and acts of unlawful interference to the ATM System. Unlawful interference can occur via direct interference with aircraft, or indirectly through interference with ATM service provision (e.g. via attacks compromising the integrity of ATM data or services) Society will always expect zero accidents and incidents due to breaches of security from the aviation industry as a whole and performance from this perspective will also set the end customers’confidence in air transport. The lack of a high level of security performance would impact stakeholders’ reputation and thus, influence customer choice. Improvements in security will also impact the cost of air transport.

The performance of the future ATM System must contribute to ensuring a high level of security is achieved by the aviation industry as a whole. Expectations are that this can be achieved not only by ensuring that the infrastructure which makes up the ATM System is itself resilient to attack, but that the System will provide information which can be used by other organisations who can also act to protect air transport and aviation as a whole.

Key Performance Areas Airspace Users’ Expectations of the Future ATM System


December2006


2.4.1 Overview

The overall vision for 2020 is of a European ATM System beingmanaged by a single management framework, which underpins acommon understanding of the System, how it must operate and aperformance framework, which determines what it must deliver.Figure1-2 gave a high-level outline of this vision and Fig. 2-5shows in more detail the principal functions, which need to beundertaken within the management framework. The proposed fra-

mework is composed of two parts: one covering the businessaspects (shown as “Operations” and “System design, planning andimplementation”); and the other covering the institutional/regula-tory aspects (shown as “Policy and Legislation” together with“Regulation”). Each part will be described in more detail in sec-tions 2.4.2 and 2.4.3 respectively. A single performance frame-work structured around the 11 KPAs described in section 2.3.3will govern the performance of the System and the managementframework as a whole.

The ATM Master Plan will be the sole vehicle, which contains theR&D activities and all other activities needed to implement allchanges in the European ATM to achieve the 2020 vision. It willalso be used to manage the evolution of the System beyond thisdate. The principles upon which the ATM Master Plan will bemanaged are as follows:

• A common reference against which the business framework will deliver the air traffic services and the regulatory frameworkwill manage compliance.

• Subjected to a process of regular review by the relevant stakeholders.

• The sole reference against which all future European ATMactivities are assessed.

2.4.2 Business Management Frameworkof the Future ATM System

2.4.2.1 Business Relationships

The overall SESAR vision for 2020 is of a coherent business manage-ment framework, which manages all aspects throughout the full sys-tem lifecycle of the future European ATM System. Relative to today’ssituation, the major changes envisaged are as follows:

• An ATM Performance Partnership will be created as a basis to manage the performance-driven ATM System. This partnershipwill be built upon a shared set of values, priorities, air transport network interactions and an agreed set of common “rules”.

• A major restructuring of air traffic service provision with the development of FABs and a new, stronger co-operativeframework between ANSPs.

• The progressive development of capacity to deliver air

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