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Headquarters U.S. Air Force

Air Force Standard Analysis Toolkit and Analysis Approach

Sharon NicholsAFSAA/SAAT703-588-6950 (DSN: 425)

Report Documentation Page Form ApprovedOMB No. 0704-0188

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1. REPORT DATE 2005 2. REPORT TYPE

3. DATES COVERED 00-00-2005 to 00-00-2005

4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Air Force Standard Analysis Toolkit and Analysis Approach

5a. CONTRACT NUMBER

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6. AUTHOR(S) 5d. PROJECT NUMBER

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7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) AFSAA/SAAT,1777 N Kent St ,Rosslyn,VA, 22209

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12. DISTRIBUTION/AVAILABILITY STATEMENT Approved for public release; distribution unlimited

13. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES Modeling and Simulation Conference, 2005 Dec 12-15, Las Cruces, NM

14. ABSTRACT

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Standard Form 298 (Rev. 8-98) Prescribed by ANSI Std Z39-18

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Outline

AFSAT DescriptionWhat is it?Why Created?Approach used to develop AFSAT?Process used for M&S tool to enter AFSAT?

SURVIAC Description

Relationship between AFSAT and SURVIAC

Ex. Analysis approach using AFSAT/SURVIAC tools

Summary

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The Air Force Standard Analysis Toolkit (AFSAT)Foundational set of AF analytic community (AFAC) accepted modeling and simulation (M&S) tools

Stand-alone, data driven constructive simulationsUser picked, well understood, formally evaluated (stamp of approval)Use of AFSAT tools encouraged

GoalsImprove consistency and quality of AF analysesStandardize model management, configuration management, VV&A, etc. best practices across the AF analytic communityProvide framework for analytic M&S capability investments

OversightAFAC Steering Group provides direction and guidanceAFSAA/SAA – executive agentSubject Matter Expert model managers (MM) responsible for individual models

AFSAT DescriptionWhat is it?

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AFSAT Description Why Created?

CAMPAIGN

MISSION

ENGAGEMENT

HUNDREDS OF ENGINEERING MODELS

Numerous Analysis ToolsCampaignMission EngagementEngineeringSpecialty Models

THUNDER CFAM - CTEM COMBAT IV

ITEM CEM VIC METRICOME IV FORCES TAM TACWAR

SUPPRESSOR SWEG EADSIM ADSIMSTRAPEM STRIKER ATCOM FORCES

MADPAS NABEM SPECT8 CIMUL8 SPEED88ADEM COMMANDER COMO-T EADTB FLAMES

SHAZAM JSEM MECCA BRAWLER AASPEM MIL-AASPEM 2TRAP TEAM HELIPAC ESAMS TRACES MOSAIC GTSIMS RADGUNS

Threat Fighter Sim ASP SCARE PACES/MARCS DISAMS HAVEDEM MOSAICLTM DREAM LELAWS DIME SABSEL Q6DOF TACARM JAM SCAN JMEM

SPAM IMARS GTSIMS ARENA STICKBOMB GENESIS Specialty Models Contractor Models

MandatesData Standards

AccreditationVV&A

Analysis

IssuesNon-DefendableNon-StandardDuplicative

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BRAWLER GIANT RADGUNSSHAZAM MIL-AASPEM 2 JSEM

TRAP JTEAM ESAMS MOSAIC GTSIMS

SUPPRESSORJIMM EADSIM

SEAS SMAT

THUNDER CFAMLCOM MASS

SPAAT

AFSAT DescriptionApproach used?

MISSIONMISSION

CAMPAIGNCAMPAIGN

ENGAGEMENTENGAGEMENT

Analysis

AF Analyses BenefitsLife cycle costs lowered via reduced duplication of cap-ability via enabling reuse

Results analytically moreconsistent

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AFSAT Description Entry Process per AFI 16-1003

Model Sponsor

Model Sponsor

Nominate Model for AFSAT

AFSAT Manager

AFSAT Manager

Request

MPSP

Submit MPSP

Evaluate MPSP &

Brief Results

Model Sponsor

Reject Model or

AFAC SG

Commission MET

Evaluation Feedback

Evaluate Model &

Brief Results

AFSAT Manager

Model Sponsor

MET

Organize MET

MET

AFAC SG

Brief

Evaluation Model

Sponsor

Model

Entry Decision

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SURVIAC DescriptionSurvivability/Vulnerability IAC

DoD sponsored Information Analysis Center (IAC)

DoD’s institution for collecting, analyzing, and disseminating scientific and technical information (STI) related to all aspects of survivability and lethality for aircraft, ground vehicles, ships and spacecraft, to conventional homeland security threats including chemical, biological, directed energy, and non–lethal weapons.

Contractor operated, DoD sponsored service available to all government and industry users to provide studies, analyses, datagathering, and other operational, and logistics requirements related to survivability and lethality technologies.

Includes maintenance and distribution of approved set of models and simulations used to evaluate survivability and vulnerability.

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AFSAT and SURVIAC M&SHow are they related?

SURVIAC AFSATEngagementLevel Models

JSEMJSEMBRAWLERBRAWLER

MILMIL--AASPEMAASPEMRADGUNSRADGUNS

ESAMSESAMSTRAPTRAP

AIRADEALARM

BLUEMAXBRL-CADCOVART

DIMEFATEPENFASTGEN

IVIEWLELAWSTRACES

MOSAICSHAZAMJTEAM

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SURVIAC

Aircraft SurvivabilityWhere the Rubber Meets the Road

Work backwards—understand the physics and effects

SURVIAC

GERALD BENNETT, SURVIAC

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TRAP

MIL AASPEM II

RADGUNSTEAM

ESAMS

Brawler

Survivability & VulnerabilityEngineering & Engagement Level Analysis

•Discrete Events•Engagement-Level•Stochastic Tools•Impact of:

TacticsCountermeasuresStealthWeapons TechnologySensors

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Engineering-LevelThe Munitions: Endgame

Terminal effectiveness of fragmenting munitions 3D terminal-encounter simulation

Last few milliseconds (fuzing/warhead interaction)

Calculates aerial target kill by threat missile (Pkss)

Accounts For Major Damage Mechanisms

Direct HitExternal BlastWarhead Frag

SHAZAM MECA

SESTEMSCAN

SCANMODJSEMAJEM

Sample Tools You May Encounter

TOM WASMUND, JTCG/ME JTCG/ASKEVIN R. CROSTHWAITE, SURVIAC

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Engineering-LevelSummary

HUNDREDS OF ENGINEERING MODELSDR. ROBERT BALL, Naval Postgraduate School

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Engagement-LevelAggregating Engineering-Level to Few-v-Few

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Engagement-LevelSurface-to-Air Missile

ESAMSDISAMS

(special case)JTEAM

Sample Tools You May Encounter

CAPT JONATHAN FITTON, 453EWS/EWC

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Engagement-LevelFew-v-Few Summary

HUNDREDS OF ENGINEERING MODELS

SHAZAM JSEM MECCA BRAWLER AASPEM MIL-AASPEM 2TRAP TEAM HELIPAC ESAMS TRACES MOSAIC GTSIMS RADGUNS

Threat Fighter Sim ASP SCARE PACES/MARCS DISAMS HAVEDEM MOSAICLTM DREAM LELAWS DIME SABSEL Q6DOF TACARM JAM SCAN JMEM

SPAM IMARS GTSIMS ARENA STICKBOMB GENESIS Specialty Models Contractor Models

DR. ROBERT BALL, Naval Postgraduate School

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TRAP

MIL AASPEM II

RADGUNSTEAM

ESAMSEADSIM

Suppressor

Brawler

FDEMOBSIM

Survivability & Vulnerability:Impacts on Mission Level Analysis

Confederation

•Airlift Capability •Tanker Deploy/EmployRequirements

•Logistics Flow

•Discrete Events•Mission-Level•Stochastic Tools•Impact of:

CONOPSTacticsC4ISRSensorsTMD

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•ESAMS Version 2.8•F-22 4012•F-35 235-1.1•All aspect/altitudes

OUTPUT:•Pk of blue platforms vs. SAMs

and AAA

Engagement Level Study•SA-10/20 RCS sensitivity

ESAMS

EADSIM

Suppressor

ESAMS, RADGUNS and JTEAMInput to EADSIM & Suppressor

RADGUNSTEAM

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Mission-LevelMany-on-Many

DR. ROBERT BALL, Naval Postgraduate School

EADSIMSUPPRESSOR

JIMM

Sample Tools You May Encounter

EADSIM

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Mission-LevelMany-v-Many Summary

HUNDREDS OF ENGINEERING MODELS

SHAZAM JSEM MECCA BRAWLER AASPEM MIL-AASPEM 2TRAP TEAM HELIPAC ESAMS TRACES MOSAIC GTSIMS RADGUNS

Threat Fighter Sim ASP SCARE PACES/MARCS DISAMS HAVEDEM MOSAICLTM DREAM LELAWS DIME SABSEL Q6DOF TACARM JAM SCAN JMEM

SPAM IMARS GTSIMS ARENA STICKBOMB GENESIS Specialty Models Contractor Models

DR. ROBERT BALL, Naval Postgraduate School

SUPPRESSOR SWEG EADSIM ADSIMSTRAPEM STRIKER ATCOM FORCES

MADPAS NABEM SPECT8 CIMUL8 SPEED88ADEM COMMANDER COMO-T EADTB FLAMES

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TRAP

MIL AASPEM II

Thunder VH

JICM

RADGUNSTEAM

ESAMSEADSIM

Suppressor

Brawler

CFAM

SPAAT

FDEMOBSIM

Survivability & Vulnerability:Impacts on Campaign Level Analysis

SABSEL

Confederation

•Deterministic•Campaign Level•Joint/ISR•Quick Look

•Stochastic•Campaign Level•Joint/ISR/Logistics•Air/Sea/Gnd

•Optimized Linear•Air Campaign•TOA Constrained•Days, Attrition

•Optimized Linear•ISR Assets vs. reqs•TOA Constrained•Time, Cost

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•2001 RT-2 MSFD•2001 RT-4 MSFD

Output to Campaign:•Encounter rate data•Attrition rate data •Weapon expenditure data

Mission Level Study:•Engagement Vulnerability

zones

Output to EADSIM:•Air-Air Pk•Weapons Effects•Surface-Air Pk

Thunder VH

RADGUNSTEAM

ESAMSEADSIM

Brawler

CFAM

EADSIMInput to THUNDER & CFAM

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S&V Impact AnalysisConsistent Scenario, CONOPS & Data Set

To answer high level questionsto show the impact of S&V,Analyst must use • Same scenario• CONOPS• Data setsfor all levels of M&S and datageneration.

TRAP

MIL AASPEM II

Thunder VH

JICM

RADGUNSTEAM

ESAMSEADSIM

Suppressor

Brawler

CFAM

SPAAT

FDEMOBSIM

SABSEL

Confederation

•Deterministic•Campaign Level•Joint/ISR•Quick Look

•Stochastic•Campaign Level•Joint/ISR/Logistics•Air/Sea/Gnd

•Optimized Linear•Air Campaign•TOA Constrained•Days, Attrition

•Optimized Linear•ISR Assets vs. reqs•TOA Constrained•Time, Cost

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AFSAT Value AddedSummary

HUNDREDS OF ENGINEERING MODELS

BRAWLER GIANT RADGUNSSHAZAM MIL-AASPEM 2 JSEM

TRAP J-TEAM ESAMS MOSAIC GTSIMS

SUPPRESSORJIMM EADSIM

SEAS SMAT

THUNDER CFAMLCOM MASS

SPAAT

Air Force Standard Analysis Tool KitAir Force Standard Analysis Tool Kit

HUNDREDS OF ENGINEERING MODELS

BRAWLER GIANT RADGUNSSHAZAM MIL-AASPEM 2 JSEM

TRAP J-TEAM ESAMS MOSAIC GTSIMS

SUPPRESSORJIMM EADSIM

SEAS SMAT

THUNDER CFAMLCOM MASS

SPAAT

HUNDREDS OF ENGINEERING MODELS

BRAWLER GIANT RADGUNSSHAZAM MIL-AASPEM 2 JSEM

TRAP J-TEAM ESAMS MOSAIC GTSIMS

SUPPRESSORJIMM EADSIM

SEAS SMAT

THUNDER CFAMLCOM MASS

SPAAT

HUNDREDS OF ENGINEERING MODELSHUNDREDS OF ENGINEERING MODELS

BRAWLER GIANT RADGUNSSHAZAM MIL-AASPEM 2 JSEM

TRAP J-TEAM ESAMS MOSAIC GTSIMS

BRAWLER GIANT RADGUNSSHAZAM MIL-AASPEM 2 JSEM

TRAP J-TEAM ESAMS MOSAIC GTSIMS

SUPPRESSORJIMM EADSIM

SEAS SMAT

SUPPRESSORJIMM EADSIM

SEAS SMAT

THUNDER CFAMLCOM MASS

SPAAT

THUNDER CFAMLCOM MASS

SPAAT

Air Force Standard Analysis Tool KitAir Force Standard Analysis Tool Kit

• AF Analytic Community approved set of M&S• Ability to demonstrate impacts at mission

and campaign levels

AFSAT POCAFSAA/SAAT Sharon NicholsVoice: 703.588.6950 (DSN: 425)Email: sharon.nichols@pentagon.af.mil

SURVIAC POC46 OG/OGM/OL-AC/SURVIAC2700 D Street Bldg. 1661Wright-Patterson AFB, OH 45433-7605Voice: 937/255-3828, x285 (DSN:785)Email: surviacmodels@bah.com

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Back Up Slides

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AnalysisAnalysis

SimulationSimulation

ModelingModeling

ExperimentationExperimentation

BattlelabsBattlelabs

ExercisesExercises

WargamesWargames

DT&E and OT&EDT&E and OT&E

Combat OperationsCombat OperationsLessons LearnedLessons Learned

DECISIONS

TIMELY

INFORMED

Capability-Based Decisions Key Enablers

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AF M&S Management Structure

Technical/Operational

Priorities/Funding

Champion Champion Champion ChampionAF/XO SAF/XC SAF/AQ AFSAA

AF Corp Structure

EAICMSWG

AF M&S GOSGSAF/XCO

DoDEXCIMSM&S Caucus

SAF/XC

Panels(Information Superiority)

AF Group

AF Council

AF Board

MSAC/CRRB

AA IPTNEWCIPT

MSFIPTWR IPT

RPG IPTAFAC

M&S WG

AF Analytic Com-munity Steering

Group(AFAC SG)

AFACM&S WG

AF/CV

AFSAA/SA

AFSAT

AF AnalysisCommunity

AF M&S Community

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NEWC IPT AOR

WarfighterReadiness

New & EmergingWarfightingCapabilities

AcceleratedAcquisition

M&S Foundations

Wargaming

I-CRRA & JCIDS

Training & Exercises

Future

Today

Operations

Experimentation

Wargaming Tools

Experimentation Tools

Analysis Support