The Economic Recovery IndexAn Amárach Research Briefing

October Index Results

© Amárach Research 2009

September 2010 Results

The AIB Amárach Recovery Indicator

2

Timing Recovery

• All recessions end in recovery – so will this one

• The biggest forecasting challenge is timing:

when do we know the recession is over and

recovery has started?

• Amárach Research has developed the

Recovery Indicator to help us track the

economic cycle more closely

• This report summarises the Recovery

Indicator results for April 2009 (when it began)

to September 2010

• The fieldwork was conducted on 13th to 22nd

September 2010

Business Cycle Peaks & Troughs

3

A Matter of Measurement• Every month we survey a representative sample of 1,000 adults – split 850 online and

150 face-to-face to ensure coverage of the total population – and ask them to tell us

which statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’

• Each statement corresponds to a different stage in the economic cycle

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A Matter of Measurement

April’09 77% September‘10

45%

April’09 14% September’10

29%

April’09 8% August’10 21%

April’09 1% August’10 2%

April’09 0% September’10

*

• The general sense in September ‘10 is marginally less positive than August. Although

the trend versus April 2009 is one of improvement, September sees a more concerned

response than that of August.

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• Using the answers to the survey we have created the Recovery Indicator, which ranges

from 0 to 100 (0 = worsening recession; 100 = back to peak).

• Summer positivity of June and July declines at the start of Autumn.

8.3

17.8

1517

18.419.6

17.8 18.3

27.1

22.723.523.8 23.8

25.326

24

19.2

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Apr '09

Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan '10

Feb Mar Apr '10

May June July Aug Sept

AIB-Amárach Recovery Indicator

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34%41%44% 42%43% 46% 48% 41% 43%

52%

41% 42% 43% 42% 42%

42%39%

31%

Apr '09

May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan '10

Feb Mar Apr May JuneJuly Aug Sept

Ireland will be through the worst of the recession in 12 months time: % agree strongly/slightly

57% 59%65%

58% 60% 62% 55% 51% 51%61%

55% 54%52% 53%

54% 55%

50%46%

Apr '09

May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan '10

Feb Mar Apr May JuneJuly Aug Sept

I am optimistic in spite of the current economic situation: % agree strongly/slightly

Recovery Outlook 1

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48% 48%51% 47%48% 48% 46%45% 45% 50%

47% 43% 47% 45% 45%47%

46%41%

Apr '09

May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan '10

Feb Mar Apr May JuneJuly Aug Sept

I feel I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the recession: % agree strongly/slightly

59% 62% 61%60% 61% 60%56%

52%

56%55%53% 55%

53% 51% 50%55%

54%53%

Apr '09

May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan '10

Feb Mar Apr May JuneJuly Aug Sept

Right now it seems like the recession is affecting other people more than it is affecting me: % agree strongly/slightly

Recovery Outlook 2

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Percent of adults who agree with each statement: Sept 2009 and Sept 2010 (unless otherwise stated)

18% 18%

Sept '09 Sept' 10

I am more relaxed about spendingmoney than I was a few months ago

62% 62%

Oct '09 Sept '10

Now is a good time to buy a house* for those

who want to

33%24%

Sept'09 Sept '10

I am saving a lot more than before because of

the recession

33% 27%

Oct '09 Sept '10

I would be happy to borrow from a bank if I

need to 61%56%

Oct'09 Sept'10

Paying off debts is my main financial priority

Impact on:

•Spending

•Saving

•Debt

•Borrowing

* ‘a new house’ in 2009

##

#

# Question first asked in October 2009

Financial Sentiment Indicators from the ARI Survey

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The Mood of the Nation 1

Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?

April 2009 to September 2010

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Apr '09

May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan '10

Feb Mar Apr '10

May June July Aug Sept

Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry

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The Mood of the Nation 2

Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?

April 2009 to September 2010

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Apr '09

May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan '10

Feb Mar Apr '10

May June July Aug Sept

Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger

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Amárach Contact Details

Gerard O’Neill - Chairman

Amárach Research

11 Kingswood Business Centre

Citywest Business Campus

Dublin 24

T. (01) 410 5200

E. gerard.oneill@amarach.com

W. www.amarach.com

B. amarachresearch.blogspot.com

AIB Contact Details

Ronan Sheridan

Group Press Officer

AIB

Bankcentre

Ballsbridge

Dublin 4

T. (01) 641 4651

M. 086 388 0898