aib amarach recovery indicator march 2010

The Economic Recovery IndexAn Amárach Research Briefing

October Index Results

© Amárach Research 2009

March 2010 Results

The AIB Amárach Recovery Indicator

2

Timing Recovery

• All recessions end in recovery – so will

this one

• The biggest forecasting challenge is

timing: when do we know the recession is

over and recovery has started?

• Amárach Research has developed the

Recovery Indicator to help us track the

economic cycle more closely

• This report summarises the Recovery

Indicator results for April 2009 (when it

began) to March 2010

• The fieldwork was conducted on 8th to

14th March 2010

Business Cycle Peaks & Troughs

3

A Matter of Measurement

• Every month we survey a representative sample of 1,000 adults – split 850 online and

150 face-to-face to ensure coverage of the total population – and ask them to tell us

which statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’

• Each statement corresponds to a different stage in the economic cycle

4

A Matter of Measurement

April’09 77% March’10 36%





• The general sense in March remains very consistent with February, albeit with a marginal

increase in the recovery index. Similarly to February; when it comes to the economy, there is

still a divide between it is ‘bad but stable or improving’ and it is ‘bad and getting worse’.

Recovery Indicator

• Using the answers to the survey we have created the Recovery Indicator, which

ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = worsening recession; 100 = back to peak)

• The Recovery Indicator experienced its strongest monthly surge in January 2010,

more gradual growths are evident over the February and March periods.

8.3

16.317.8

1517

18.419.6

17.8 18.3

27.1

22.7 23.5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Apr '09 May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan '10 Feb Mar

6

Recovery Outlook 1

34% 41% 44% 42% 43% 46% 48% 41% 43%52%

41% 42%


Ireland will be through the worst of the recession in 12 months time: % agree strongly/slightly

57% 59% 65% 58% 60% 62% 55% 51% 51%61% 55% 54%


I am optimistic in spite of the current economic situation: % agree strongly/slightly

7

Recovery Outlook 2

48% 48% 51% 47% 48% 48% 46%45% 45% 50% 47% 43%


I feel I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the recession: % agree strongly/slightly

59% 62% 61% 60% 61% 60% 56%52%

56% 55% 53%55%


Right now it seems like the recession is affecting other people more than it is affecting me: % agree strongly/slightly

8

Other Sentiment Indicators from ARI Survey• Percent of adults who agree with each statement: February 2010 and March 2010

35% 40%

February March

News from other countries suggests the recession will end soon

18% 18%

February March

I am more relaxed about spending money than I was a few months ago

62% 64%

February March

Now is a good time to buy a house for those

who want to

26% 25%

February March

I am saving a lot more than before because of

the recession

29% 30%

February March

I would be happy to borrow from a bank if I

need to 62% 61%

February March

Paying off debts is my main financial priority

9

The Mood of the Nation 1

Did you experience any of these feeling a lot of the day yesterday?

April 2009 to March 2010

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Apr '09

May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan '10

Feb Mar

Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry

10

The Mood of the Nation 2

Did you experience any of these feeling a lot of the day yesterday?

April 2009 to March 2010

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Apr '09

May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan '10

Feb Mar

Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger

11

Amárach Contact Details

Gerard O’Neill - Chairman

Amárach Research

11 Kingswood Business Centre

Citywest Business Campus

Dublin 24

T. (01) 410 5200

E. [email protected]

W. www.amarach.com

B. amarachresearch.blogspot.com

AIB Contact Details

Ronan Sheridan

Group Press Officer

AIB

Bankcentre

Ballsbridge

Dublin 4

T. (01) 641 4651

M. 086 388 0898

aib amarach recovery indicator march 2010

Documents